Welcome back to The Daily Grind, the place where I will be discussing all the happenings in Daily Fantasy Sports on a weekly basis. The Daily Grind will be my voice to help you through the constantly changing DFS landscape as I highlight important news, free articles, resources, potential overlay situations, great contests to play and more every week. The emphasis here will be first to cover the four sites that we partnered with this year (FanDuel, DraftKings, FantasyAces and FantasyScore), but I will still discuss major news and contests beyond those sites when applicable.
This week’s column is going to be a little different as I am leading off with the biggest story in DFS right now by a wide margin. The story might be one of the biggest, if not the biggest, ever in the brief history of DFS. I’ll break it into three parts – the facts behind the story, the significance, and then my own opinion of what it means for DFS.
The Big Story
In case you missed it, a huge controversy came up regarding a DraftKings employee and his access, or perceived access, to internal data at DraftKings. The employee won a big prize ($350,000) on FanDuel the very week (NFL Week 3) that he released data for player ownership on DraftKings before the contests had fully locked all of the NFL rosters for the week (DraftKings allows for late swaps of players, so players in a game that started after Sunday 1PM Eastern were not committed to in rosters just yet). This “data leak” led to all sorts of speculation and media coverage that the employee could have used this data to his advantage, or that other employees of DraftKings could use data such as this to win a contest on a different DFS site. DraftKings quickly did their own investigation that the company does believe that the employee did not have access to this data prior to making his FanDuel lineup.
This story was picked up by not just fantasy football and DFS news but by major news entities across the board and is, by far, the closest thing to a DFS scandal that this young industry has seen to date. ESPN temporarily pulled their ads and integrated segments with DraftKings. The attorney general of New York also opened up an inquiry to see what was going on with FanDuel and DraftKings, and a class action lawsuit was filed.. DraftKings’ CEO Jason Robins has been on multiple news outlets to try and get back out ahead of this story, including an appearance on both ESPN’s Outside the Lines and Rotogrinders’ Live with Dan Back.
So those are the facts behind the story. Now comes the aftermath. Lots and lots of aftermath. First, FanDuel released a statement to the media about what happened in this particular instance and that an independent third party law firm would be conducting an audit of FanDuel’s internal practices and policies to see where improvements can be made to avoid similar situations in the future. DraftKings quickly followed suit with a similar press release. Both companies immediately adopted policy changes regarding employees such that they would no longer being allowed to play DFS contests for money on any other DFS site. Other sites quickly followed with similar internal policy notifications, while another site (FantasyScore) decided to make player ownership percentages open to the public to see the very data that caused all of this controversy in the first place.
There was another ripple effect from this major story this week. As part of DraftKings’ internal investigation of how data is being handled, all external access to contest results has been severed, at least temporarily. One example of this is the results of contests that Rotogrinders used to rank DFS players. (Note – now FanDuel is also severing this data feed as well.) Rotogrinders took the results and, based on a formula, ranked DFS players to see which ones were at the top of the industry and also try to determine the Tournament Player of the Year. Rotogrinders uses the results of these contests from several sites to calculate these results, but given the questions about who has access to what data right now from DraftKings and FanDuel, it was not difficult to see why this data path had to be closed, at least until the investigation is complete.
The significance
So what exactly is the big deal here? Clearly the employee did not go out and catch touchdowns on his own on Sunday to get him a big win for his lineup on FanDuel, so why should we care? The key data that we are talking about here is player ownership percentages in a big tournament. For seasoned DFS players, this is very important information because it directly influences lineups entered into a major contest. To understand this best, an example often helps.
Let’s say you are trying to decide on a tight end for your tournament lineup this week, and you are not sure who to use. You believe all three are about equal, both in salary and projected points and even upside, so it really is a three-way dead heat. This is where information about the rest of the teams in a contest could be a major advantage. If you are able to look at the rest of the rosters (or just the ownership percentages from a tournament) and see that two players are 20% owned and the third is 10% owned, a tournament player is going to pick the 10% owned player every time. Why? Because if the 10% owned player does well, 90% of his competition doesn’t get the benefit while his team does. Tournaments are not only about building lineups that produce a lot of points, it is also about being ahead of as many people as possible. The choice of a player that is twice as infrequent of another cuts the competition in half based on that one lineup selection. So if you have the ability to see what your competition is doing in a tournament – not necessarily an individual roster in the tournament, but the entire group of lineups in that tournament – a significant advantage can be obtained.
THE OPINION
Now that I have shared the facts about what has happened in the past week along with the potential significance of key metrics or data being available to some players, allow me to also tell you how I feel about this issue and what I believe is the most likely outcome. Keep in mind, this is my opinion and mine alone, and not one of the rest of Footballguys, nor is it influenced by Footballguys’ advertising agreements with FanDuel or DraftKings. I am providing my thoughts here in The Daily Grind because I believe that is one of the biggest values of this article to the DFS community as a whole, and not doing so would be a disservice to all of our loyal readers. So here it is.
There’s no doubt that this situation created a mess, and one that probably could have both been prevented and anticipated. Even if this time there was no impropriety (and that appears to be the case), the possibility that this could be done by an employee is a huge deal. All of the major DFS sites provide not only contests but also advice on how to play their games, which is seen as an added service to DFS players, both new and experienced. The idea of having some in-house DFS experts was viewed as an asset to the companies as the experts can provide insight as to not just what a DFS player would want from a site but also what the sites should be providing to entice new customers. That perceived “win win” situation created the potential conflict of interest situation highlighted this past week as an employee of one site played contests on another site. I believe that this goes in the category of “you should have seen this coming”, which Jason Robins actually stated in one of his recent interviews this week. In this example where an employee won a six-figure prize in a contest on another site, there’s no question that someone would wonder about how he did it.
Let’s put part of the issue aside for a moment. Even if there was no “data leak” story that came out, how would the public feel if an employee of ANY DFS site won first place in a million dollar DFS contest? I would believe that anyone directly employed by a DFS site that won a big prize on another site would be looked at with a lot of speculation. There are reasons that employees of companies are not allowed to win prizes within their organizations or with similar companies, not because these employees are not honest but it would raise the entire integrity of the contest into question. This is not a new concept at all, most notably going back to several game shows such as Twenty One and The $64,000 Question in the 1950s that created a much bigger scandal at the time.
So now the big question – where do we go from here? I think that the new policies announced by DraftKings and FanDuel are steps in the right direction, but I also believe that there is still room for improvement. All DFS players, experienced or new, should feel confident that none of the lineup information or aggregate data is shared with any other contestant in a particular contest. For a DFS game to be truly one of skill, the playing field must be level for everyone, and any step that a contest site or the DFS industry as a whole takes to ensure that this is the case should and will be welcomed. DFS is a very young industry and growing at an incredible rate, but sometimes you have to take a step back and slow down to not get too far ahead of yourself or else a problem can creep in as you speed to the next level. I believe that it what happened here, and that this issue will help the DFS industry to better identify what needs to be done to make sure that the entire DFS community improves as a whole. The improvements might come in several different shapes or sizes, from internal changes at DFS contest sites all the way to external regulation, but I believe that this rough week for DFS will lead to a better contest environment in the future.
My last thoughts on the topic for this week are about that future environment. What will it look like? I personally think that we are looking at external regulation of the DFS industry. Unfortunately, this incident is going to be “Exhibit A” to regulators that external regulation is needed. I see the likely outcome to be a gaming license that each DFS site must obtain to operate, and that does make a lot of sense to me. After all, DFS is self-described as a game of skill, so therefore a license to operate these games is not an unreasonable request. The question then becomes one of cost and overhead expenses to the sites to obtain this license and also comply with whatever standards the regulators would put in place, and how these costs would be passed on to the DFS players. If the “rake” or commission a site charges for a DFS contest increases dramatically, the DFS game environment could change dramatically to where only GPPs are playable as 50/50 or head-to-head games would be too expensive to play. That last supposition is getting ahead of myself, but I do believe that gaming regulation can and will come to the DFS community and sooner than many might have thought.
Okay, enough about all of this. Let’s talk about some DFS content, some great contests and have some fun while we try and win some money and prizes. This is supposed to be fun, right? Here we go.
FanDuel giving away cars this week
If you have played on FanDuel for at least two weeks this year, you should have a freeroll available to you in your account to win a car. Now the odds are pretty steep (as with most freerolls) but hey, we’re talking about a free car for a great lineup. Check your account on FanDuel and take your shot at driving away with a great prize.
New Survivor Contest at DraftKings
I learned this week that DraftKIngs is offering a new multi-week contest that they are calling “Turbo Survivor”, where you enter a team for $5 per roster and get a shot at up to a $30,000 first place prize. Here’s the kicker (actually there are no kickers at DraftKings – get it? Okay, moving on). Once you win this week, you are playing for free. The next two weeks are all about winners deciding how much they win, as all 20,000 teams that advance to the second week win at least $5. But that’s not the goal, right? So go for it each week, move to the third round and take a shot at $30,000. Read all the details on the contest right here, but be sure to take a shot at $30,000 for just five bucks. That’s way better than the deal KFC offers, so why not?
FREE DRAFTKINGS DFS NFL FOOTBALL COVERAGE BY FOOTBALLGUYS THIS WEEK
Before I start to talk about how good all of our coverage is for DFS, there is nothing better than just experiencing it for yourself. That is why this week Footballguys has made all of our DraftKings DFS NFL content 100% free for Week 5. You do not have to be an Insider at Footballguys this week to see our great DraftKings DFS content this week for free. Interested in playing with the Interactive Value Charts? Help yourself. Wondering what Justin Howe is looking at for value for this week? Check it out. It’s all on our DraftKings DFS page, with over 20 different things to read and digest. You better get started now as there is a ton of information. Help yourself to it all for free this week.
FOOTBALLGUYS AND DFS COVERAGE FOR 2015
You know the deal by now - Footballguys has a ton of DFS coverage this year. Whether it is our two e-books that cover FanDuel (“Cracking FanDuel”) and DraftKings (“Cracking DraftKings”), or the 50+ articles a week we produce to cover all four major sites each week – we have it all covered. All this articles are linked in our Daily Crusher App that continues to be one of he best ways that DFS players can create lineups for cash games and tournaments and also get deep analysis on their rosters, likelihood of winning and exposure to various players. Once you start using this, it will be hard to imagine how you ever lived without it. I'm still learning all the different ways to use this great tool both by experimenting with it and with the help of our Daily Crusher Manual and I can already see its immense value to me as both a cash game and GPP player.
There's a ton more coverage we have this season for DFS, too much to outline in The Daily Grind, but we have a large section dedicated to each of our sponsor sites listed below.
DraftKings Coverage for Week 5
FantasyAces Coverage for Week 5
FantasyScore Coverage for Week 5
Let's also not forget about the Footballguys' blogs for both FanDuel and DraftKings. Watch for new content every day over there.
We even added new video content for 2015. In a partnership with Rotogrinders, you can now see both John Lee and Austin Lee with Dan Back on The Footballguys Rotogrinders Hour. It is a great show with lots of insight. Check it out!
Of course, if you are a bigger fan of The Audible, we have both FanDuel and DraftKings shows for DFS coverage for each site as well. Be sure to subscribe to these weekly podcasts to get your weekends rolling for the NFL DFS slate.
FOOTBALLGUYS DFS CONTEST
Footballguys wants all of their readers to get in on the fun. With the help of both FanDuel, we have a great contest available to Footballguys here in Week 5. The Footballguys Football Championship, presented by FanDuel, offers contestants with a shot at not just a double-up opportunity on their $10 entry, but also a chance at one of the final prizes. All you have to do is beat Sigmund Bloom, David Dodds and Joe Bryant’s scores in a given week and you get a ticket for the Week 11 final contest, where first place will win $5,000. That’s a pretty sweet deal on top of a normal double-up contest, as these extra prizes create a built-in overlay of about $40,000. This one should fill up quickly.
BIG CONTESTS FOR WEEK 5
FANDUEL
Last week I pointed out the great FanDuel NFL Survivor contest, and I hope that you both entered and advanced to the second round. If you did, you need to check your ticket list to see if your entries are available for Sunday. If you don’t know, just click your name on the FanDuel site, then click “My Account”, and then “My Tickets” to see your tickets, and then be sure to update your rosters for Sunday. FanDuel also added the “win a car” freerolls to accounts that qualified (you had to play 2-4 weeks of cash contests, so hopefully you made it). Once again these freerolls should appear on your account, so again, update any dummy rosters.
Aside from that, FanDuel “only” has the same contests as last week on the DFS street continues to offer some of the largest volume of contests around. Start off with the Week 5 $5 Million Contest where someone will win a million bucks for just a $25 entry all the way down to the NFL Sunday Rush, which I have to highlight again this week. I still cannot believe that the prize pool for a $5 entry contest is $2 Million, including $150,000 for first place. What a value that one is. But of course there is more, and as we mentioned earlier in The Daily Grind, FanDuel partnered with Footballguys to create an exclusive Footballguys-FanDuel Championship with over $40,000 in free prizes where you can turn a double-up entry into a ticket for a Week 11 final where if you can beat Joe Bryant, David Dodds and Sigmund Bloom in the week you can add up to $5,000 to that $20 you won in the $10 double-up. That's pretty sweet right there. And of course you have to take note of the Playboy College Football Championship, where you can earn one of 70 exclusive entries to the PCFC event at the Playboy Mansion on November 21st. Qualifiers will be running all season long at FanDuel, so take some shots at these great tournaments with extra incentives and prizes. Let's also not forget about the biggest one of them all, the $12M Fantasy Football World Championship that was announced early this season. Find a qualifier you like and take a shot and winning millions of dollars. The hard part is not deciding if to play, but which contests to target and try and take down.
DRAFTKINGS
DraftKings added the Turbo Survivor contest that I mentioned earlier, and they are continuing with their usual slate of great GPP contests. Such is the case in Week 5 with the $7M Millionaire Maker this week. First place walks away with $1.2M dollars, not a bad payday at all. DraftKings still has the biggest contest around with their $15 Million contest announcement from a few weeks back, and qualifiers are still in play for as low as $3 an entry. Hmmm, $3 for a shot at $5 Million. I’m in, and I think everyone should take a shot at this big prize.
As far as the rest of the contests for this week, there are plenty of tournaments at DraftKings to sink your teeth into, even after the Millionaire Maker. At a price point of just $3, the $1.5M Play-Action tournament is certainly appealing, and this week they increased the $9 tournament again by another $100,000. That puts the NFL Slant contest up to $700K in prizes and you can win as much as $50,000. There' are also several giant 50/50 contests in the lobby as well, including a $25 entry with 10,000 winners about to get $50 Tuesday morning. Lots of contests and lots of money to be had in Week 5, so get those lineups ready.
FANTASYACES
You have to check out what FantasyAces is offering this season. Not only are they going bigger and better for the NFL, but they are also going for a Live Final for College Football!
First, FantasyAces announced the $500,000 NFL Live Final for 2015, which will be in Las Vegas on December 13th. The live final will have 40 entrants competing for a $100,000 grand prize. Qualifiers will run all season long up until the live event, including satellites to get into qualifiers at a discount.
The other major event for FantasyAces is their other live final, the $100,000 College Football Live Final. The live event will take place in Newport Beach, CA on November 21st where 13 finalist will compete for the $100,000 prize pool. The only way to claim a seat to the live final is to win a FACFC qualifier contest, which will be held weekly beginning September 3.
FantasyAces also has an interesting format called SalaryPro, where you get bonus points for staying furhter and further under the salary cap. More and more are trying out this unique format, so be sure to check out the lobby over at FantasyAces for contests that use this rule.
FANTASYSCORE
FantasyScore is offering up a GPP with a twist this year. If you can finish in the Top 3 in their Fantasy Football Championship Satellite, you can grab an elusive golden ticket for an entry towards the Week 16 championship game where $25,000 will be awarded. Another way to get a ticket is to go after the $20 entry satellite that is giving away four tickets. Check out all of these contests and more at our FantasyScore page.
Footballguys has you covered here - both in major DFS announcements and the tools you need to build winning lineups.
As one last reminder, Footballguys' DraftKings NFL DFS content is 100% free this week. As an added bonus, here is an article to show how in depth Footballguys' staff can be with this week’s edition of the DraftKings roundtable:
DRAFTKINGS SUNDAY GAMES ROUNDTABLE: WEEK 5
A look behind the curtain at a staff discussion pertaining to Week 4 DraftKings topics
Moderated by Ryan Hester
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
BUYING BELL
LeVeon Bell appears to have picked up right where he left off last season, registering 26.2 and 31.0 fantasy points in his two games this season. This week, he’ll cost you a whopping $700 more than the second-highest running back.
Is Bell worth it? If you’re paying up for him, where are you sacrificing elsewhere?
John Mamula: Yes, LeVeon Bell is worth the high price tag, especially in cash games due to his high reception floor. The Steelers offense will continue to run through Bell until Ben Roethlisberger returns from injury. Michael Vick will utilize Bell in the short passing game. Bell projects for a floor of six-to-eight receptions with 40-50 receiving yards. If you roster Bell, you are starting with double digit points off the bat.
If you pay up for Bell, you will have to sacrifice with either a top wide receiver or Rob Gronkowski. I recommend always trying to figure a way to get Gronkowski into your cash lineups because his floor/ceiling is much higher than any other tight end in the league. If you look at the top wide receivers this week, we have Julio Jones priced at $9,200 with a great matchup versus the vulnerable Redskins secondary. Also, Odell Beckham Jr is priced at $9,000 and gets a home matchup versus the 49ers. If you move down at wide receiver, there are some great values between the $6,800-$7,700 price point. Some alternatives in this range are:
- Larry Fitzgerald $6,800
- Julian Edelman $7,000
- Keenan Allen $7,200
- Randall Cobb $7,500
- A.J. Green $7,700
If enough value presents itself before Sunday, I would try to fit at least one of the three premium options (Gronkowski, Jones, Beckham Jr) into your lineup along with Bell to create a high floor for your DraftKings cash games. If value does not present itself, I would target at least two wide receivers that I listed in the $6,800-$7,700 price range.
Jeff Haseley: John, you and I are eye to eye on LeVeon Bell. We share the same ideas and principles of "trying to fit him in" without sacrificing other high floor players. Outside of his rushing ability, another reason to like Bell is his propensity to pick up receptions from Michael Vick. The Steelers have yet to unleash Vick as a downfield passer and are content with allowing him to make timely, short-ranged throws which is right in Bell's wheelhouse. Six catches for Bell is not a stretch. He has a high price tag, but he also brings a consistent point value that is difficult to find elsewhere in this week's running back stable. One possible lineup that includes Bell and my desire to have a Brady/Gronkowski stack is this: Brady, Bell, Gurley, Fitzgerald, Hankerson, Garcon, Gronkowski, Snead, Chiefs.
John Lee: As I see it, you have to try to get Bell into your cash game lineups this weekend. Julio Jones is the other guy that I really want to get into my lineups, but Bell gets a slight edge because we can almost guarantee that Coach Tomlin will put the ball in his hands 22-26 times on Monday Night. As John said, he should pick up at least six receptions and 40 yards in the passing game, which means that he has double-digit points before we even consider his rushing output. The implied team total for the Steelers is lower than the Falcons, but given how these teams have both been heavy on the running game, I think Julio Jones is the riskier play of the two pricy options (although still a great play).
To slot these guys in, you have to be considering the minimum salary RB, Anthony Dixon, who should get all the action he can handle against a Titans' defense allowing 18.3 DraftKings' points per week to opposing running backs. Likewise, I'm giving serious consideration to Todd Gurley – despite what appears to be a negative gamescript – at $4,300. Gurley is the type of back who can pick up several fantasy points at a time, and I fully expect Jeff Fisher to try to keep the ball away from the Green Bay offense by feeding the ball to Gurley as much as possible. In 20 games as the Rams Head Coach, Fisher has been a touchdown (or more) underdog 20 times, and his running backs average 26 carries per game in those games, which lends credence to the notion that Gurley could be in line for extended volume against the Packers. Lastly,Willie Snead has to be squarely on your radar this week after averaging 12.6 DraftKings points over the past three weeks and seeing increased snap counts over that time; at $3000, he should be a lock for nine or more fantasy points (which would see him reach cash game value at 3x) against an Eagles secondary that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.
Chris Feery: Great points so far, and while I love Bell’s upside and floor on a week-to-week basis, I think you can save the money this week and go for Jamaal Charles at $700 less without sacrificing too many points. Charles already has a three-touchdown game under his belt this season and has the privilege of facing the Bears defense on Sunday. In my mind, both players offer a similar floor this week with high upside. The counterpoint to that is as John mentioned, the Steelers offense will run through Bell until Roethlisberger returns. Bell could have much more opportunity than Charles this week, but the salary savings makes it a risk worth taking for me.
Neither back will come cheaply, but there are plenty of value plays available that can help you fit whichever one you choose under the cap. I like to find the high-floor value at running back and wide receiver and actually will use that as part of my core lineup. Using last week as an example, Karlos Williams and Ted Ginn Jr. were both priced at $3,400 and both returned more than four times value. That won’t happen every week of course, but the flexibility allowed me to fit Matt Forte, Randall Cobb and Julio Jones among others. This week, Todd Gurley, Dion Lewis and Anthony Dixon are standing out as fine values at running back. At wide receiver, I agree with John on Willie Snead and will add Kamar Aiken and Leonard Hankerson to the list.
Will Grant: I agree that Bell is a guy you really want in your cash lineups. With a 50 point over/under in the New England-Dallas game, Jeff Haseley’s Brady, Bell, Gronk stack looks like a great start.
To make up the difference, I’m going to look at guys like Darren Sproles at $4,200 or CJ Spiller at $3,800. The Eagles and Saints will be another potential shootout, and I think both of those guys can reach value with their pass receptions. Brandon Coleman at $3,200 could be a bargain WR too.
GAME SCRIPTS
Last week, the game script question was an enlightening one in that it showed just how difficult it can be to predict NFL games. Let’s see if this week’s round of staffers can nail a few games.
So please pick a game on the slate this week and tell us how you think it will play out. Which player(s) will benefit from this script? Which become values?
John Mamula: One game that stands out to me is the Kansas City Chiefs versus the Chicago Bears. Chicago pulled out a win last week at home versus Oakland. Kansas City lost another game after getting behind early in Cincinnati. Vegas has set the line at Kansas City -9 with a total of 45 points. Kansas City’s team total is one of the highest of the week at 27 points. Chicago’s team total is the second-lowest at 18 points. I was a bit surprised that Kansas City is projected as one of the largest favorites of the week. I expected Kansas City to be a favorite of 5-7 points, not 9. When Vegas talks, I listen.
The pressure will be on Kansas City to pick up a win after starting 1-3. They will lean heavily on the running game. Jamaal Charles ($7,800) is in line for another huge stat line. Through four games, Charles is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He has a minimum of four receptions in every game and has found the end zone five times. He will feast versus the Bears defense on Sunday. For GPPs, I am not opposed to a correlation play of Charles with the Chiefs defense. ($2,800).
Jeff Haseley: Good call on Kansas City and Chicago, John. I'll add that the Chiefs and Bears have allowed the most passing touchdowns to date (KC 11, CHI 10). Both teams are also allowing over 100 QB rating against. This has all of the makings to be a back and forth battle, especially if Chicago can hang against the Chiefs tough defensive line, which is not an easy task. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kansas City get at least one defensive score in this game.
Looking at the New England-Dallas game, I see the game unfolding as such: New England's offense continues to thrive against a Dallas team that has allowed 39 and 26 points in the last two games. The Patriots offense is clicking on all cylinders and shouldn't have a problem putting points on the board at Dallas, which is not a raucous home team crowd. If New England has a weakness, it's their run defense. This game could get into the 50s if Dallas finds success running the ball. I don't see Brandon Weeden taking flight on the Patriots, so any attempt at keeping pace will have to come from the running game. This could be the week we see more of Christine Michael, especially if Joseph Randle and/or Darren McFadden struggle early. Randle seems like the better back to use against New England. We saw DeAngelo Williams bob and weave his way through the Patriots defense in Week 1. Randle possesses some similar skills, where his quickness could help him find open holes and squeeze through the defense play after play. I don't see New England losing this game, but either way, expect Tom Brady and the Patriots offense to keep the gas floored from beginning to end.
John Lee: There are a number of games that appear to have a defined game script this week, including the ones already mentioned, but I find myself gravitating towards the AFC North matchup between Baltimore and Cleveland. The Ravens enter the game as 6.5-point favorites, which ordinarily would setup well for Justin Forsett, but this week could be even better for the veteran running back because the Ravens receiving corps is decimated with injuries right now. Steve Smith has microfractures in his back, Breshad Perriman is not close to coming back, Michael Campanaro just went on injured reserve, and Crockett Gillmore is still nursing a calf injury. With the unexciting Kamar Aiken-Marlon Brown duo catching balls for the Ravens this Sunday, I fully expect them to lean heavily upon Justin Forsett.
Forsett should see plenty of daylight against the Browns front seven that is amongst the worst in the league against the run (141.5 rushing yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry). Speaking of game script, Forsett has been a victim of poor play from his team for most of the season. Baltimore has only held a lead for 33 (out of 240) minutes this season, which has negatively affected Forsett's touches thus far. Despite trailing so often, the Ravens have still given Forsett around 21 opportunities (rushes plus targets) per game, including 28 opportunities last week against the Steelers. Some will argue thatLorenzo Taliaferro will steal Forsett goal line rushes, but Forsett still has twice as many redzone looks (eight) as Taliaferro (four) entering Week 5. With these factors in mind, I think Justin Forsett is a steal at $5,800 this weekend.
Chris Feery: Great calls so for. To add to the Chicago-Kansas City discussion, Jeremy Maclin looks like a tremendous value at $6,000. He has back-to-back 100-yard receiving performances and has been targeted 24 times over those two games.
One game I like to play out according to script is the game between Atlanta and Washington. Atlanta is a 7.5-point favorite at home in a game with a projected total of 48 points. The Falcons are rolling, and we saw what they did to an offensively-challenged team at home last week as they demolished the Texans. That’s not to say that this week will play out the same way, but chances are we can expect them to be up pretty big and protecting a lead.
Devonta Freeman is still very affordable at $6,300. We can’t expect him to keep up this pace forever, but we also can’t look past riding the hot hand for one more week. Julio Jones let many people down with his fantasy output last week, but still provides pretty good value at $9,200. For those that find Jones too expensive, Leonard Hankerson can be chosen for $4,000. He received eight targets last week and parlayed that into six receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons defense has jumped up in price after last week’s performance but still looks like a decent value at $3,200. We have a team that is rolling and playing at home facing off against a team that can be forced into mistakes, similar to last week’s game against the Texans.
Will Grant: As a Cowboys fan, I hate to go against them, but the Patriots are poised to roll all over them this week. With an extra week of rest, Tom Brady is worth the $7,800 price. Julian Edelman continues to creep up in price but at $7,000, he’s going to be a nice alternative to Rob Gronkowski at $7,500. LeGarrette Blount at $4,500 could be another good pick if the Patriots get up big and just hammer the ball on the ground.
QUARTERBACK VALUES
Are Tom Brady ($7,800) and Aaron Rodgers ($7,900) actually somewhat contrarian plays this week? With Peyton Manning ($7,000) vs Oakland’s horrific secondary, Eli Manning ($6,800) vs San Francisco’s poor group, and Philip Rivers ($6,200) vs. Pittsburgh’s poor pass defense, do you foresee “the masses” not wanting to pay up at quarterback?
Even matchups like New Orleans-Philadelphia with Drew Brees ($7,200) and Sam Bradford ($6,000) and Chicago-Kansas City with Jay Cutler ($5,300) and Alex Smith ($5,500) provide attractive-for-the-price options.
John Mamula: Many will still want to pay up for Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers due to their name brand value. But, I don't see any quarterback dominating ownership percentage this week. When analyzing this week’s matchups, the QB position is as solid we have seen thus far this season. All of the players listed above are good targets in your contests this week.
I would also add a few to the list. The first is Matt Ryan ($6,700) who has a home matchup with a bad Washington defense that allowed three passing touchdowns last week to the Eagles. Carson Palmer ($6,600) is an attractive cash game QB who has a minimum DraftKings weekly score of 19.98 through four weeks. As mentioned, Brees ($7,200) is also a potential play versus a vulnerable Eagles secondary.
All of these quarterbacks have the potential to pass for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in their matchups. Nailing your quarterback stack will be key to a high finish in your GPPs this weekend.
Jeff Haseley: I am all over Tom Brady this week against Dallas. His price tag is among the highest, but so far in three games, he has shown that he will pass the ball on any down and distance at any point on the field, no matter what the score is. The Patriots have figured out their offense quickly this year. It's a fine-tuned machine that has "full speed ahead" written all over it.
Green Bay is close behind, especially at home, but the Rams matchup gives me slight pause. One way to beat Aaron Rodgers is to pressure him without blitzing. The Rams defense (NFL-leading 17 sacks) can do that and disrupt his game. They may not win at Lambeau, but they could do enough to keep Rodgers from having a big game. Some of the losses Green Bay had last year came against teams (Seattle, Detroit, Buffalo) with strong defenses – particularly the front four.
I don't see the Packers skating through this one, which is another reason why I'm on the Tom Brady bandwagon against a Dallas team that likely will be without their defensive captain, Sean Lee (concussion). Brady is my favorite cash game quarterback this week. I can see how some might think he's a contrarian play, but to me, he's the highest floor, safest quarterback play.
Chris Feery: This is a great week for value at the quarterback position, but I don’t think that will impact the popularity ofTom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. There’s value to be found at quarterback every week, but some simply prefer the safety of the “name-brand” player at the position. For this week, I don’t expect it to be any different and think there’s actually very good reasons to look in the direction of the expensive quarterbacks. We have Brady and the Patriots continuing their mission to put up as many points as possible in a late afternoon game that will be available to the majority of the country. Besides the game being must-see TV, we can expect them to use the national platform to show off some offensive dominance. Rodgers was a let-down last week on the road against the 49ers but returns home this week to face the Rams. It’s pretty tough to fade Aaron Rodgers when he’s playing at home. He could very well bounce back with a huge fantasy output. In short, I think both quarterbacks will be as popular as ever this week but there is plenty of value to be found for those that wish to save the salary cap dollars.
Will Grant: I think Brady is going to be very highly-owned this week in both cash games and GPPs. With a week off and a banged up Dallas defense, the 50 point over/under makes perfect sense.
If you're looking to avoid the big names though, I do like Philip Rivers this week against the Steelers defense. Without Ben Roethlisberger under center, the Steelers are a different team, and I think that the Chargers are going to get a few more offensive sets than they would have if Roethlisberger were under center. That means Rivers is going to have more opportunities and with a weak Pittsburgh pass defense, that means plenty of opportunity for Rivers and his receivers.
As a 'what the hell' kind of play, I also think Alex Smith might be worth consideration. The Bears played pretty well against the Raiders last week, but they were at home and desperate for a win. This week they travel to Kansas City where it's always tough to play. Chicago’s defense still has the issues that it has had all season. Their secondary is weak at best, and their pass rush struggles at times. With a guy like Jamaal Charles to dump off to, the Bears can't blitz as often giving Smith time to pick the apart. He's a fraction of Brady and Rodgers salary at just $5,500, and I think he might be a sneaky play to reach value in a GPP contest.
John Lee: After the first four games, I don't think Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers will be contrarian plays for the foreseeable future. With 20 passing touchdowns between them in seven games and both teams having two of the highest projected scores on the weekend, these guys will both be well-owned on Sunday. As has been pointed out in some of the other Roundtable questions, there are some value-based plays (i.e., Anthony Dixon, Todd Gurley, Willie Snead, etc.) who can afford you the ability to construct rosters that contain these star quarterbacks for your cash games and GPPs should you want to take that route. To find a contrarian quarterback this weekend, I might suggest the readers check out Justin Bonnema's "The Contrarian" article that digs into that type of information each and every week.
FREEMAN'S RISING SALARY
Devonta Freeman’s salary has risen from $4,200 (Week 2) to $4,600 (Week 3) to $5,200 (Week 4) and is now sitting at $6,300 for this week.
Last week, Freeman torched a previously good rush defense at home. Is he still a solid cash game play for one more week despite another tough run matchup and the increased salary?
John Mamula: Yes, Davonta Freeman is a solid cash game play once again based on his price point. At $6,300, you need a score of 18.9 DraftKings points from Freeman to return value in cash games. Since Tevin Coleman went down with an injury, Freeman has taken the main running back duties and not looked back. Much of Freeman's value comes via the passing game. Through four games, Freeman's receiving stats are: three receptions for 29 yards, four receptions for 34 yards, five receptions for 52 yards, and five receptions for 81 yards. Based on these reception totals, Freeman has a reception floor of three receptions for 30 yards for 6.0 DraftKings points. If we apply 6.0 points to the required 18.9 cash game goal, Freeman needs an additional 12.9 points on the ground. Over the past two weeks, Freeman has 68 and 141 rushing yards. If Freeman can get into the end zone one time with 70 rushing yards for 13 DraftKings points, we meet our cash game value of 18.9 points. Freeman has found the end zone seven times over the past three weeks, so I like his chances of at least one touchdown.
Jeff Haseley: It's very close for me, because of Freeman's receiving ability, but ultimately I don't love the match up against Washington. I expect to see him on a lot of rosters this week due to his quick rise to fame, but I'm only going to start him in a few lineups. Justin Forsett ($5,800) Dion Lewis ($4,800), Todd Gurley ($4,300) and Danny Woodhead ($4,600) are better values in my opinion, especially if I want to spend high on a Tom Brady/Rob Gronkowski stack with Demaryius Thomas orJulio Jones as my top wide receiver. There's a lot of value plays at running back this week, which is another reason to consider shying away from Freeman.
Chris Feery: I think he still remains a great cash game play at $6,300. The game script calls for Atlanta to be up pretty big as they are a 7.5-point favorite at home. How much of the damage will Freeman do on his own to help build the lead? If they are up as expected, how much opportunity will he receive as they try to wind down the game clock? As Jeff mentioned, there's plenty of additional value at running back. Perhaps pairing Freeman with one of the solid lower-cost options could be the way to go as opposed to paying up for one of the expensive running backs. This method will free up plenty of salary cap space to roster some of the top receiving options and could provide a nice return.
Will Grant: I think Freeman is a fade this week. Going with him again feels like you're going to the well one too many times. Not to mention that Washington has a lot tougher run defense than he has in previous weeks. I think Atlanta is going to air it out, and that will be the difference in the game for them.
Jeff listed off some great alternatives at RB who can provide 3x or 4x their salary return given the right game script. Justin Forsett Is a little more expensive than the other guys that he listed, but he gets a very favorable matchup against the Browns. Chris Thompson also represents an interesting option at RB. He's dirt cheap at just $3,300, but he's a big part of the Washington passing game and with only 10 points needed to reach 3x value, he's at a reasonable floor with some upside in cash games.
John Lee: In GPP format, I will not have a whole of Freeman this week for a number of reasons. First, recency bias will dictate that he will be over-owned despite the fact that his salary has risen 33% over the past few weeks. Next, his output simply is not sustainable. Seven touchdowns in three weeks would equate to 35 touchdowns in the course of the season, which obviously will not happen. At some point, Freeman will go through some negative regression. Lastly, his matchup this week is not a good one. Washington is second in the league in defending the run (78.0 rushing yards per game) but can be beaten with the passing game, so I suspect we will see a bit more Julio Jones this Sunday after an off-week in Week 4.
In cash games, I understand why a person would want to have Freeman, but I am thinking t
