The Daily Grind: Daily Fantasy Contest News, Week 3 Edition

Photo: Imagn Images

Welcome back to The Daily Grind, the place where I will be discussing all the happenings in Daily Fantasy Sports on a weekly basis.  The Daily Grind will be my voice to help you through the constantly changing DFS landscape as I highlight important news, free articles, resources, potential overlay situations, great contests to play and more every week.  The emphasis here will be first to cover the four sites that we partnered with this year (FanDuel, DraftKings, FantasyAces and FantasyScore), but I will still discuss major news and contests beyond those sites when applicable. 

Last week I got you caught up on the whirlwind of activity in DFS since Week 1, and I am going to cover those topics on a weekly basis throughout the NFL season.  As I said before, the news cycle never ends.   It seems now to change almost daily, just like the contest lineups we see.  Let’s do a quick recap on the week that was and then look ahead to what lies ahead in Week 3.

NFL WEEK 2

What a strange week it was.  We can probably start and end the conversation the same way – Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Oakland and the Jets all won in Week 2.  Think about that for a moment.  I tried to figure out if I could remember if that has ever happened before – and it didn’t surprise me to see that it really has never happened before – ever.  That is just one example of how strange a week it was for NFL Week 2.  Most experienced DFS players had a rough week as players disappointed projection models all over the place, especially at running back and quarterback, but this does happen – and it will happen again.  This is why bankroll management is such a key element in playing DFS, no matter the sport.  Bad weeks happen, it is not a matter of “if”, just “when” it will occur.  We all hope that it isn’t the week we have a lot on the line (like last year in NFL Week 16, which was abysmal), but we all know that deep down the projections are just that – projections.  There are no guarantees in these games, else why would anyone play?

That brings me to my next point.  If you start to analyze the results from Week 2, such as looking at the Millionaire Maker lineups or any group of top results in big GPPS from Week 2, you will see that there were a lot of new winners and some lineups that don’t quite make too much sense in the way that many DFS experts advise people to build good GPP lineups.  Some teams paired quarterbacks with opposing defenses, which is a Cardinal sin for NFL DFS players, and some others did not stack a quarterback with a receiver or even stacked a QB with a running back.  Of course, some of these players are laughing all the way to the bank this week, but such is DFS life.  The only positive I can find to take away here is that these newer players will stick around and play even more, so hopefully the skilled players (such as those who read the Footballguys DFS content) will be able to bounce back and finish way ahead of the game by season end.

QUICK DFS LESSON

I did not include a big DFS lesson this week as I wanted to highlight our college football coverage, but I did want to bring up something that I mentioned last year regarding improving your odds of winning.  I did a lot of math behind the scenes, and it sure looked to me from the numbers that large field 50/50s are the best chance of cashing in general for a cash game.  You can read more from last year's article, but here is an excerpt:

Table 1 below represents a summary of the winning percentage you need to have to win the different sizes of 50/50 leagues. 

Table 1 – Necessary Winning Percentages and Combinations in 50/50 Leagues

As you can see from the numbers, the bigger the league, the lower the winning percentage you need to have to achieve at least a 55.6% league-wide winning  percentage.  Even in a 10-team league, you only need to be 52.3% successful on average to win 55.6% of the time in 50/50 leagues, and that required win rate only gets smaller for bigger leagues.  For example, in a 100-team 50/50 league, the winning percentage required to win the league at least 55.6% of the time is only 50.71% - or almost 5% less than in a Head-to-Head league.  That’s extremely significant.  Gaining a 5% win advantage is nothing to sneeze at, and that is why I ran all of these numbers.

The conclusions I draw here are that in bigger leagues, the margin above 50% that you need to be is smaller because of how many different winning outcomes are represented in big leagues.  Back to our last example, in a 100-team league, you are playing 99 other players and you need to go 50-49 or better to win in that contest.  There are 100 different records you could have (99-0, 98-1, …, 1-98, 0-99), but the odds of winning 99 games are far greater than winning zero, and the same can be said for winning 98 vs. 1, and so on.    With 50 outcomes a “win” and 50 a “loss”, it only takes a very small advantage to tilt the odds of the Top 50 outcomes where you win to be at least 55.6% in your favor.  That’s what I wanted to prove to both myself and to you, so that we can draw the following conclusions:

Conclusion 1 (from statistics):  50/50 Leagues offer a significant advantage to win in DFS over Head-to-Head (H2H) leagues. 

Conclusion 2 (from statistics):  While both require winning percentages > 50% for success, the winning percentage required for success (and positive earnings over time) is much smaller in 50/50 leagues than in H2H leagues.

Conclusion 3 (from statistics):  The larger the 50/50 league, the lower the winning percentage you need for success and positive earnings over time.

In general, if you are torn between two 50/50s, take the one with more players.

DFS Changes

The first change that I noticed for Week 3 was that DraftKings reduced the size of the Millionaire Maker from $10M to $7M – still a gargantuan weekly prize pool, but definitely a reduction from Weeks 1 and 2.  The top prize is still over a million dollars, but I believe that this is one of the first steps that sites are making a little bit of a pullback after the first two weeks of the NFL season.  They are still advertising heavily, as we all know after watching any game this weekend for an hour or so, but the numbers are starting to decline.  That was expected (and for many viewers, thankfully) as it was not sustainable from an investment standpoint from FanDuel or DraftKings for the full season.  Both sites have their name well out there in the marketplace so they will still continue to add new customers, but the top contest prizes being one-upped on a weekly basis is probably done for the rest of the year, although some big contests could definitely pop up towards December like they did last season.

DFS INDUSTRY NEWS

eSports – What Is It?

Normally we focus on football in The Daily Grind, but I would not be giving you the full picture of what is going on in DFS if I did not mention e-Sports this week.  If you are unfamiliar with e-Sports, I might suggest you ask a teenager for a definition.  My 15-year old son, Matthew, has kept me up to speed on League of Legends (or “LoL”), a game where two teams of five players battle it out within a video game.  That’s right, DFS and video games are coming together.  This is a HUGE deal overseas (Europe, Asia) and North America is not as far behind as you think.  A few weeks ago, the North American League Championship Series sold out the Madison Square Garden in New York City.  Teams have been around for years, and both players and fans are making video games an even bigger industry.  This emerging market has caught the eye of DraftKings, who just launched eSports as another DFS contest avenue on their main site, and FanDuel was not far behind with a recent acquisition of AlphaDraft, another DFS-type site that focuses on eSports.  For me, this tells me two things – first, DFS is very much here to stay, and also that expansion to more and more contests and sports (or eSports) is inevitable.  Football is still going to be the dominant DFS game for the foreseeable future as football is the top fan sport by a wide margin, but neither DraftKings nor FanDuel are hesitant to seek out even larger fan bases in new areas.

Before I leave the topic of eSports, I want to touch on two things.  First, it does not matter if you are behind it as a sport or not.  If you like to play a game, be it softball, basketball, baseball, hockey, golf, whatever - odds are that you also like to watch the elite players do the same.  You might like to see how they handle different situations, or see if there is something that they do that you can bring to your own game.  The point is that if you like playing something, watching high level competitors do the same has a draw.  Competitive video games is no different.  

Lastly, do you still wonder about how big this can get and how the top players can become like elite athletes?  Look no further than the Electronic Sports League, who announced this year that they will start to do drug testing on their top players.  Mull that over for a little while.   I doubt we will see a BALCO scandal in eSports any time soon, but any competitive leagues that want to keep their contests on the up and up just shows how big this all can get.

FREE DRAFTKINGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL COVERAGE BY FOOTBALLGUYS THIS WEEK

Before I start to talk about how good all of our coverage is for DFS, there is nothing better than just experiencing it for yourself. That is why this week Footballguys has made all of our college football content 100% free.  You do not have to be an Insider at Footballguys this week to see our weekly projections for DraftKings, and you can read all of our college content this week for free.  Interested in the Pac12?  Read up on on our breakdowns of that conference (and several others) for free this week.  Our content is fantastic, but the clear separator for Footballguys is that we have projections for college, something very, very hard to find for DFS college football players.  These also work with our Interactive Value Charts (IVCs) for DraftKings, so check it all out for free this week!

Another highlight to mention is Devin Knotts, our lead writer for college football and producer of our weekly collge football projections, made a guest appearance on the DraftKings weekly episode of The Audible.  Listen in on our coverage and a few of his favorite picks for this weekend!

FOOTBALLGUYS AND DFS COVERAGE FOR 2015 

Footballguys also did not stand still this offseason.  I personally cannot believe how far we have come in such a short time, but it speaks volumes about the staff that Footballguys is so fortunate to have at its disposal.  Since the Super Bowl, we decided to dedicate a large amount of effort and resources towards covering DFS fantasy football, because that’s what we are all about.  We created not just one but two e-books to cover FanDuel (“Cracking FanDuel”) and DraftKings (“Cracking DraftKings”), and we could not be happier with how they turned out.  As fellow Footballguy John Lee likes to point out, no matter what skill level you are at, every DFS player can get something from these two books.  The basics of DFS NFL contests all the way up to advanced strategies are extensively covered like no one else can so everyone can hit the ground running this season.

But we did not stop there.  The Daily Crusher App was invented and released this year by Footballguys so that DFS players can create lineups for cash games and tournaments and also get deep analysis on their rosters, likelihood of winning and exposure to various players.  It can also help you to build, manage and customize lineups across several sites plus check news and articles for DFS.  Once you start using this, it will be hard to imagine how you ever lived without it.  I'm still learning all the different ways to use this great tool both by experimenting with it and with the help of our Daily Crusher Manual and I can already see its immense value to me as both a cash game and GPP player.  

There's a ton more coverage we have this season for DFS, too much to outline in this opening of The Daily Grind, but we have a large section dedicated to each of our sponsor sites listed below.

FanDuel Coverage for Week 3

DraftKings Coverage for Week 3

FantasyAces Coverage for Week 3

FantasyScore Coverage for Week 3

Let's also not forget about the Footballguys' blogs for both FanDuel and DraftKings.  Watch for new content every day over there.

We even added new video content for 2015.  In a partnership with Rotogrinders, you can now see both John Lee and Austin Lee with Dan Back on The Footballguys Rotogrinders Hour.  It is a great show with lots of insight.  Check it out!

FOOTBALLGUYS DFS CONTESTS

Footballguys wants all of their readers to get in on the fun.  With the help of both FanDuel and DraftKings, several contests are now available for Week 3.  Let’s start by talking about a contest with a built-in overlay of $40,000.  The Footballguys Football Championship, presented by FanDuel, offers contestants with a shot at not just a double-up opportunity on their $10 entry, but also a chance at one of the final prizes.  All you have to do is beat Sigmund Bloom, David Dodds and Joe Bryant’s scores in a given week and you get a ticket for the Week 11 final contest, where first place will win $5,000.  That’s a pretty sweet deal on top of a normal double-up contest.  This one should fill up quickly.

DFS PARTNERSHIPS WITH FOOTBALLGUYS

This will be the last week I mention this, as I don't want to sound like a broken record.  I just wanted everyone who reads The Daily Grind to know where Footballguys stands with respect to our main four partners in DFS football for 2015.  So before I get into all the Week 3 contests and how Footballguys can help you succeed and win more than your fair share this week, let’s talk quickly, just one more time, as to why Footballguys partnered with these four sites in particular.  FanDuel and DraftKings were easy decisions as they are clearly the top two places to play DFS contests right now.  FantasyAces represents the next best site for two reasons – first, they have several live final events, a rare but highly coveted experience for DFS players.  They also offer a unique starting lineup for football that requires both two starting quarterbacks and two flex positions, so this variation also sets them apart.  Last but not least is FantasyScore, which offers a weekly draft format either in the form of a scheduled draft or a quick “Draft-and-Go” structure where players can hop in right away and start drafting.  All four sites offer unique experiences and a large sampling of what the DFS space has to offer football players.

As stated earlier, I will focus predominantly on these four sites here in The Daily Grind, but I also want to make sure that you as the DFS player does not miss out on large opportunities to earn life-changing money.  So whenever a new contest that has a big payout or a large overlay possible each week, I will try and make sure you know it when I know it and can take your shot at winning that big prize, regardless of the site hosting the contest.   

BIG CONTESTS FOR WEEK 3

FANDUEL

The big boy on the DFS street continues to be FanDuel, who offers some of the largest volume of contests around.  Start off with the Week 3 $5 Million Contest where someone will win a million bucks from a $25 entry all the way down to the NFL Sunday Rush, which is the one contest I really want to highlight this week. The Sunday Rush has increased the total prize pool from $1M to $1.5M, so while someone still will turn five bucks into $100,000, the rest of the players will split that extra $500,000 in prize money.  That's pretty awesome right there.  But of course there is more, and as we mentioned earlier in The Daily Grind, FanDuel partnered with Footballguys to create an exclusive Footballguys-FanDuel Championship with over $40,000 in free prizes where you can turn a double-up entry into a ticket for a Week 11 final where if you can beat Joe Bryant, David Dodds and Sigmund Bloom in the week you can add up to $5,000 to that $20 you won in the $10 double-up.  That's pretty sweet right there.   And of course you have to take note of the Playboy College Football Championship, where you can earn one of 70 exclusive entries to the PCFC event at the Playboy Mansion on November 21st.  Qualifiers will be running all season long at FanDuel, so take some shots at these great tournaments with extra incentives and prizes.  Let's also not forget about the biggest one of them all, the $12M Fantasy Football World Championship that was announced last week.  Find a qualifier you like and take a shot and winning millions of dollars. The hard part is not deciding if to play, but which contests to target and try and take down.   

DRAFTKINGS

Let's talk about the changes DraftKings has made since last week.  You can still become an instant (or over the weekend, be patient here - it's a Million+ bucks!) millionaire in the $7M Millionaire Maker this week.  First place walks away with $1.2M dollars, not a bad payday at all.  DraftKings still has the biggest contest around with their $15 Million contest announcement during Week 1 weekend.  I think I need to stop saying that it couldn't get any bigger, because clearly it can and does, year after year.  

As far as this week, there are plenty of tournaments at DraftKings to sink your teeth into, even after the Millionaire Maker.  At a price point of just $3, the $1M Play-Action tournament is certainly appealing, and this week they upped the prize in the $9 entry slant from $500K to $600K.  So for just $9, you can enter the $600K Slant and you can win as much as $50,000.  There' are also several giant 50/50 contests in the lobby as well, including a $25 entry with 10,000 winners about to get $50 Tuesday morning.  Lots of contests and lots of money to be had in Week 3.   

FANTASYACES

You have to check out what FantasyAces is offering this season.  Not only are they going bigger and better for the NFL, but they are also going for a Live Final for College Football!  

First, FantasyAces announced the $500,000 NFL Live Final for 2015, which will be in Las Vegas on December 13th.  The live final will have 40 entrants competing for a $100,000 grand prize.  Qualifiers will run all season long up until the live event, including satellites to get into qualifiers at a discount.  

The other major event for FantasyAces is their other live final, the $100,000 College Football Live Final.  The live event will take place in Newport Beach, CA on November 21st where 13 finalist will compete for the $100,000 prize pool.  The only way to claim a seat to the live final is to win a FACFC qualifier contest, which will be held weekly beginning September 3.  

FantasyAces also has an interesting format called SalaryPro, where you get bonus points for staying furhter and further under the salary cap.  More and more are trying out this unique format, so be sure to check out the lobby over at FantasyAces for contests that use this rule.

FANTASYSCORE 

FantasyScore is offering up a GPP with a twist this year.  If you can finish in the Top 3 in their Fantasy Football Championship Satellite, you can grab an elusive golden ticket for an entry towards the Week 16 championship game where $25,000 will be awarded.  Another way to get a ticket is to go after the $20 entry satellite that is giving away four tickets.

Footballguys has you covered here - both in major DFS announcements and the tools you need to build winning lineups.  

As one last reminder, Footballguys' DraftKings content is 100% free this week.  As an added bonus, here is an article to highlight even further how extensive our college coverage is this season: 

FOOTBALLGUYS' CFB WEEK 3 RECAP:  PAC-12 CONFERENCE 

by James Brimacombe

Follow @JamesBrimacombe

NEW MEXICO 10 AT ARIZONA STATE 34

Key Player Performance - QB Mike Bercovici put together a nice game with 317 passing yards and 3 touchdowns and another 15 yards and a touchdown on the ground. RB Demario Richard was outstanding in the game putting up 104 rushing yards on 15 carries and added 4 receptions for 151 yards and a pair of touchdowns. D.J. Foster was a bust in this game as he rushed 5 times for only 8 yards and caught 4 passes for only 16 yards. WR Devin Lucien had 4 catches for 43 yards.

Key Injuries - RB De'Chavon Hayes (hamstring), WR Jalen Harvey (collarbone), WR Devin Lucien (knee), and TE Dan Vear are all questionable for Saturday's game against USC.

Key Under the Radar Players to Watch - Tim White continues to impress with his play on offense as he caught 4 passes for 42 yards and a touchdown.

GEORGIA STATE 28 VS OREGON 61

Key Player Performance - QB Vernon Adams sat out the game with a finger injury and gave way for backup Jeff Lockie who went 23 of 31 for 228 yards and a pair of touchdown passes. Royce Freeman only had to see limited rushing attempts with 10 for 101 yards and a touchdown. Dwayne Stanford was the only WR on the Ducks to find the endzone as he ended the game with 3 receptions for 48 yards and a score. 

Key Injuries - QB Vernon Adams (finger) is questionable for Saturday's game against Utah but more than likely will be suiting up and playing in the big Pac-12 matchup.

Key Under the Radar Players to Watch - RB Taj Griffin saw 14 carries for 56 yards and a touchdown and could be a player to monitor going forward as Oregon likes to work in a second RB.

UTAH STATE 17 VS WASHINGTON 31

Key Player Performance - It was the Jake Browning to Dwayne Washington show for Washington in this game as the duo connected for 5 receptions and 131 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Jake Browning finished the game with 368 yards passing and 3 touchdowns. Dwayne Washington did all his damage in the receiving game as he failed to find any room in the ground game with only 2 yards on 5 carries. WR Jaydon Mickens caught 4 passes for 54 yards but failed to find the endzone.

Key Injuries - No key injuries to report.

Key Under the Radar Players to Watch - RB Myles Gaskin got the majority of the rushing carries as he had 15 attempts for 42 yards with his longest run going for 13 yards. 

COLORADO 27 VS COLORADO STATE 24

Key Player Performance - QB Sefo Liufau completed only 15 passes on the day for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns. WR Nelson Spruce failed to find the endzone but did catch a team high 6 passes for 63 yards. RB Christian Powell was also held in check with 15 carries for 58 yards and a single catch for 6 more yards. 

Key Injuries - RB Michael Adkins II (hamstring) is questionable for Saturday's game against Nicholls State.

Key Under the Radar Players to Watch - Sophomore WR Shay Fields had a strong game with 3 catches for 79 yards and a touchdown and now has 11 receptions on the season.

CALIFORNIA 45 VS TEXAS 44

Key Player Performance - QB Jared Goff continues to impress as he battled all day long and completed 27 of 37 passes for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns. He found WR Kenny Lawler for 2 of those touchdowns and Lawler finished the day with 6 catches for 79 yards. 

Key Injuries - RB Daniel Lasco (hip) is questionable for Saturday's game against Washington.

Key Under the Radar Players to Watch - RB Khalfani Muhammad was the breakout player for the Golden Bears as he rushed 10 times for 164 yards and a touchdown and caught 2 more passes for 16 additional yards. With starting RB Daniel Lasco still banged up, Muhammad makes for an interesting option in the short term.

STANFORD 41 VS USC 31

Key Player Performance - For Stanford it was QB Kevin Hogan showing some guys on the road and leading his team to victory. He finished the game with 279 yards and a pair of touchdowns and also had 28 more yards rushing. RB Christian McCaffrey had 26 carries for 115 yards and 3 receptions for 37 more yards. TE Austin Hooper caught 4 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown and WR Devon Cajuste caught 2 passes for 21 yards and a touchdown. For USC it was Cody Kessler completing 25 of 32 passing for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns. His main target was non-other than WR JuJu Smith-Schuster who caught a team high 8 passes for 153 yards and a touchdown. The RBs were split in carries with Tre Madden (9), Justin Davis (8), and Ronald Jones (6). Madden was the one that found the endzone on the ground but left the game with a knee injury.

Key Injuries - Stanford - QB Kevin Hogan (leg) was injured and is questionable for Friday's game against Oregon State.  USC - RB Tre Madden (knee) was injured last game and is questionable for Saturday's game against Arizona State.

Key Under the Radar Players to Watch - For Stanford it was RB Remound Wright who made the most of his carries and found the endzone 3 times on 11 carries (41 rushing yards). For USC it was WR Steven Mitchell Jr. who had 2 touchdowns out of his 3 receptions and 12 yards receiving.

SAN JOSE STATE 21 VS OREGON STATE 35

Key Player Performance - QB Seth Collins did very little through the air with only completing 13 of 25 passes for 135 yards and a touchdown and interception. What he did do though was make plays with his legs as he carried the ball 16 times for 114 yards and a pair of touchdowns. These are the types of players we want to roster in CFB DFS, guys that can do damage with both their arm and legs. RB Storm Woods ran for 151 yards and a touchdown of his own and added 3 receptions for 30 additional yards. WR Jordan Villamin had 3 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown.

Key Injuries - No key injuries to report.

Key Under the Radar Players to Watch - WR Victor Bolden caught 2 passes for 31 yards and also had 4 rushing attempts for 27 yards.

WYOMING 14 VS WASHINGTON STATE 31

Key Player Performance - QB Luke Falk had a pair of touchdown passes to go along with his rushing touchdown and ended the day with 303 passing yards. WR Dom Williams caught 3 passes for 53 yards and a pair of touchdowns. WR River Cracraft had a very good game as well with 7 receptions for 83 yards and WR Gabe Marks had 5 receptions for 51 yards as well.

Key Injuries - No key injuries to report.

Key Under the Radar Players to Watch - Freshman RB Keith Harrington ran the ball 6 times for 68 yards and a touchdown and showed his catching abilities as well with 4 receptions for 22 yards.

BYU 23 VS UCLA 24

Key Player Performance - QB Josh Rosen struggled against a tougher than advertised BYU defense and ended the game completing 11 of 23 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown but also was picked off 3 times. It was RB Paul Perkins who was the difference maker in the game rushing for 219 yards and a touchdown to help bail out his struggling QB. WR Jordan Payton caught 4 passes for 59 yards and a touchdown. 

Key Injuries - No key injuries to report.

Key Under the Radar Players to Watch - RB Nate Starks only ran 7 times but made it count as he collected 81 yards for a touchdown and was a key part of the Bruins making the late push to beat the Cougars.

UTAH 45 VS FRESNO STATE 24

NORTHERN ARIZONA 13 VS ARIZONA 77