Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Frank Gore’s understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with Green Bay off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Philadelphia were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: This is not a great week for waiver wires, so I went on to dig pretty deep. With six teams on a bye week and a few coming back, it is tricky to find value right now. Harvesting from teams that are taking Week 8 off is a good plan to get ahead of your league for Week 9 and beyond.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 8 of the 2016 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
Note - It is getting harder to find true starters, but I am assuming that the following players are owned. If not, go get them:
Jay Ajayi, RB, Dolphins ($315)
- Devontae Booker, RB, Broncos ($215, $290 if you own C.J. Anderson): Denver is a run first team, but it clearly a split backfield now between Booker and C.J. Anderson. Once again, Booker ran hard against Houston on Monday Night Football, racking up 73 yards and a score on 17 tough carries. Booker was on the field for more snaps than Anderson (35 to 28) and had one more carry than Anderson. No matter how you slice it, both backs are RB2s right now and have about equal value. If either are available, grab them.
- Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Buccaneers ($213): Until Doug Martin gets back in the saddle, the Tampa Bay backfield belongs to Rodgers. He exploded last week against the 49ers and will be lined up for another strong performance against the Raiders in Week 8. Two more great matchups (Falcons, Bears) are on the horizon, including two December contests against the Saints, so he should be on many fantasy rosters the rest of the year.
- Ty Montgomery, WR, Packers ($207): If Montgomery slipped through your waiver wire last week, time to fix that right away, as he showed last Thursday that he has both the ability to catch short passes and run the ball as a slash / running back for Green Bay. Montgomery could be leading the Green Bay backfield as they utilize his unique talents and replace Eddie Lacy and James Starks. Take note that some sites have given him dual status as a running back as well, which adds value to his traditional wide receiver designation.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Knile Davis, RB, Packers ($145): Ty Montgomery has been a great story for the Packers, but at some point they will have to run the ball with a traditional running back. Green Bay would not have traded for Davis if the organization felt the same way. Davis is definitely worth a roster spot as the likely starter down the line for a high-powered offense.
- DaVante Adams, WR, Packers ($143): Adams is such a tempting pickup every time he explodes, because all the tools are there for success – strong offense and quarterback, talent and playing time even as the third wide receiver. Historically Adams has not been able to produce consistently, but now he has put together two big games in Week 5 (5-85-1) against a bad Giants defense and now another against Chicago (13-132-2). Is this the start of a trend? If you think it is, snap him up before his price gets too high.
- Michael Thomas, WR, Saints ($135): Michael Thomas continues to see not only a large volume of targets from Drew Brees, but also high quality ones in the red zone. Despite failing to score last week against the Chiefs, Thomas still managed to have a highly productive (10-130) afternoon. With the Saints throwing a ton this year (as usual), Thomas is a WR3 even against tough matchups and should be rostered in all leagues.
- Brandon LaFell, WR, Bengals ($131): Brandon LaFell is now firmly cemented as the starting wide receiver for the Bengals on the opposite side of A.J. Green. LaFell stepped up yet again in Week 7, catching four of five targets for 83 yards and another touchdown, his fourth in just the past three weeks. He should be on most rosters at this point, but if he is still out there, grab this WR3 who is not getting enough attention.
- Jack Doyle, TE, Colts ($126, $153 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Andrew Luck throwing to tight ends has been a real thing since his days at Stanford, and now Jack Doyle is his pass catcher at the end of the offensive line. Doyle saw 10 targets in Week 7, resulting in an impressive 9-78-1 performance against Tennessee. In a rough season for tight ends, Doyle is now a must own in most league formats.
- Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers ($122): I have been calling Winston a poor man’s Cam Newton for a while, and he just lit up the 49ers for three touchdowns. Now he gets to go back home and face the Raiders, a defense that his hemorrhaging fantasy points to opposing passing games. Grab him and use him if you can.
- Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts ($117): It comes as no surprise that Indianapolis is thin on wide receiver talent right now, but help may be coming soon in the form of Donte Moncrief, who could be practicing as soon as Wednesday. If he is able to go, he becomes an instant WR3 candidate.
- Willie Snead, WR, Saints ($113): The Saints are throwing a ton with Drew Brees (and yes, water is still wet), so every target in that passing game deserves roster consideration. Snead saw 11 targets in Week 7, finishing with nine catches and 87 yards. If he is available, he is a solid flex option on a week with a lot of byes, even against Seattle.
- Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers ($107, $138 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Hunter Henry is now in the concussion protocol, and the Chargers have to visit Denver this week – a team not known for covering tight ends too well. Gates is a sneaky pickup this week and can offer instant value.
- Kenneth Dixon, RB, Ravens ($101): Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh finally wants to use Dixon more after the Week 8 bye week. Shocking, considering that the Ravens’ rushers had 10 yards on 10 carries against the Jets in Week 7. Snap up Dixon if you can.
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Marquise Goodwin, WR, Bills ($97): Goodwin’s normal role in Buffalo is as a deep threat, not an every down receiver – but that is now where he resides on the depth chart for the Bills after injuries to both Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. Ideally the Bills run the ball most of the time, but they still have to throw the ball now and then, which puts Goodwin as a speculative WR3 in fantasy. Goodwin had a solid Week 7 (4-93-1) thanks to his 67-yard touchdown, but aside from that deep strike he did not put up much on six other targets. The next 2-3 weeks have a ton of byes, so Goodwin is worth a roster spot, but his value could be gone by November.
- Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks ($96): Thomas Rawls may be back in action in November, so if you can spare a bench spot for several weeks, stash him and hope he reclaims the starting role for Seattle. The Seahawks have a mixed bag of a schedule down the line, but if Rawls becomes the lead back for Seattle, he is certainly worth holding on to for the second half of the year and the fantasy playoffs.
- Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings ($95): The Eagles shut down Minnesota’s run game in Week 7, but it should be noted that Asiata was the better performer with 80 total yards on 18 touches, including six catches. It has to be mentioned that some of the value for Asiata came from Jerick McKinnon’s ankle injury, but production is production. It is tough to pencil Asiata in for Week 8 with the game on Monday, but Chicago is a great matchup if he gets that type of volume again. If you add him this week, be sure to have an alternative player for your lineup (and preferably one from the Bears-Vikings game).
- Jay Cutler, QB, Bears ($94): Happy Halloween, Bears fans! Cutler is back! With Brian Hoyer suffering a broken arm and going on IR, suddenly Cutler’s thumb feels better. Do we believe that his thumb is the only reason he wasn’t starting? Of course not, but he is now. With Cutler facing the Vikings on Monday, he is not in a great spot at all to use this week, but going forwards he is back on the QB2 radar.
- Mike Gillislee, RB, Dolphins ($93): I have no idea why Buffalo pushed on LeSean McCoy so hard last week to play, but now he is right back where he was last week (or worse) with a questionable hamstring. Gillislee is the clear backup and likely starter here, but he matchup just got way worse with a trip to New England. The pickup here is more for the long haul, but two bad matchups (Patriots, Seahawks) loom before the Week 10 bye. Bid cautiously.
- Chris Thompson, RB, Washington ($91): Where there is smoke there is often fire, and a pyre is being built for Matt Jones and his fumbling issues. Chris Thompson led Washington in rushing (12-73) against Detroit on Sunday, and he was also a big part of the passing game with seven catches and 40 yards. Thompson could be leading a committee as soon as next week, but very likely after the Week 9 bye.
- Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars ($89): Jacksonville has been a fantasy disaster so far, but Lee is emerging as a viable receiver for a team that has to throw most of the time. Lee has topped 60 yards two weeks in a row now, including last Sunday’s 7-107 performance against Oakland. He is not going to get much attention – in fantasy or from opposing defenses – and that may be an oversight in both departments. Jacksonville visits Tennessee this week, and Lee could provide WR3 numbers once again.
- Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins ($74): Kenny Stills was on the field for the Dolphins for 68 of 73 offensive snaps in Week 7, far more than DeVante Parker (49). That led to Stills outproducing Parker, who has only seen four or fewer targets in three out of the last four games. Stills pulled in five out of eight targets against Buffalo, resulting in 100 yards receiving along with a 66-yard touchdown. With Miami on a bye week, grabbing Stills now is a solid move as you can put him on your bench on the cheap.
- C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Texans ($71, $79 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Normally I would completely skip over a tight end that catches just five of seven targets for 35 yards, but there are a few reasons to mention “C.J.” here. First, he faced a tough defense in Denver on Monday Night Football, but he is on the field all the time and Brock Osweiler has to get rid of the ball quickly. Next, he has at least four catches for four straight games. Most importantly, he goes up against every tight end’s dream matchup next week – yes, that is the one and only Detroit Lions. Can you trust him? Not completely, but in a year where tight end production is pretty hard to find, sticking him in this week with six teams on a bye sounds like a solid approach.
- Vernon Davis, TE, Washington ($70, $74 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Washington has one more week before their bye, and they are giving Jordan Reed all of that time to recover. That means Vernon Davis gets one more start in London against the Bengals, who just yielded a productive day (6-66) to Gary Barnidge with barely any viable quarterbacks. Davis is a solid one week filler option.
- Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings ($68): Patterson led the Vikings in receiving against Philadelphia, converting all seven targets for 68 yards and a late (and meaningless) score in Week 7. Fantasy points all count, so Patterson’s utility even late in contests provides value. It should be mentioned that Patterson is one of the fastest kick returners, so he offers a little upside there as well. He should be on a bench in deep leagues, but he is not a solid fantasy starter just yet.
- J.J. Nelson, WR, Cardinals ($67): Arizona is suddenly rather thin at wide receiver after starters Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. Floyd has been struggling of late, and John Brown has been dealing with sickle cell issues causing him leg issues, which pushed Nelson into action in the awkward 6-6 tie with Seattle on Sunday Night Football. Nelson saw seven targets, collecting three of them for 84 yards. Arizona likes to use three wide receivers quite often (and rarely incorporates a tight end into the offense), so adding Nelson as a sleeper is not a bad idea.
- Justin Forsett, RB, Lions ($65): Forsett led the committee backfield for Detroit in Week 7, rushing for 33 yards and catching two passes for 15 more as he split time with Zach Zenner. Until Theo Riddick gets cleared, Forsett looks like the back to own for the Lions, but his value may not last very long.
- Tavon Austin, WR, Rams ($63): It is difficult to recommend adding a receiver that averages less than 10 yards a catch (and falling), but Austin has been a target hog for the Rams. He saw 15 passes head in his direction in London against the Giants, but his scant stats (10-57-1) were salvaged only because of his short touchdown. Austin is worth a roster spot in PPR leagues, but is hard to recommend beyond that.
- Chris Ivory, RB, Jaguars ($47): The good news for Ivory is that he was the most productive back for Jacksonville in Week 7. The bad news is a much longer list, as his rushing was paltry (5-48), his receiving was barely there (2-3), and this was his best game of the year. Throw in that most of his yardage came on a single play and it is hard to find too much value in Ivory, with his upside being a goal line plunge in a given week.
- Brian Quick, WR, Rams ($41): The Rams are struggling to move the ball down the field, but when they do take shots for a deep pass, Quick is usually the target. Quick was able to convert nine targets into a decent Week 7 (4-92), but Los Angeles’ passing game is too inconsistent to rely on any Rams receiver right now.
- Russell Shepard, WR, Buccaneers ($35): Who? I told you it was a thin week, but hang on for a moment. Vincent Jackson is out for the year, and it was supposed to be Cecil Shorts starting for Tampa Bay. Surprise! Russell Shepard has been in Tampa Bay for four seasons now, mostly working on special teams, but the former quarterback-turned-receiver from LSU stepped up in Week 7. Can it continue? In a matchup against Oakland in Week 8, he is worth a flier if you are out of other options, but stashing him on a deep bench is not a bad idea at all.
- Lance Kendricks, TE, Rams ($35, $43 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Los Angeles is struggling on offense, but Kendricks has been a reliable target in the short passing game for Case Keenum. Kendricks has seen 17 targets the past two weeks, resulting in two solid performances against Detroit (5-34-1) and the Giants (7-55). With the Rams o a bye in Week 8, adding Kendricks now will go way under the radar.
- Josh Huff, WR, Eagles ($33): Huff ran back another kickoff for the Eagles and added four catches for 39 yards, but do not go chasing points here. The Eagles are rumored to be seeking out Torrey Smith in a trade, which would push Huff’s minimal receiver value to almost zero. Tread lightly.
- Josh McCown, QB, Browns ($27): Cleveland has started about 100 different guys under center, but they are really hopeful that McCown can return to action soon. McCown was a capable QB2 early in the year and in the past, so a speculative pickup now is not a terrible idea.
- Peyton Barber, RB, Buccaneers ($26): So Jacquizz Rodgers was a fantasy favorite with Doug Martin out, but who is Rodgers’ backup? That question was answered on Sunday, as Barber mopped up the fourth quarter with a 44-yard touchdown run late to cap his 84 yard rushing day. All Rodgers owners should stash him if they have a bench spot.
- Robby Anderson, WR, Jets ($23): Once again - Who? Yeah, I thought the same thing, but it is a thin waiver wire week, so here’s a deep, deep sleeper. The Jets used the undrafted rookie from Temple as both a receiver (3-41 on three targets) and rusher (1-30), getting the youngster into action as much as they could. New York is really thin at wide receiver with Eric Decker out for the year and not much after Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa. Anderson saw the field for 50 snaps against Baltimore, the fourth week in a row where he has been on the field for 50 or more offensive plays. Could he be the next Ty Montgomery? Probably not, but he does have deep sleeper appeal.
- Kevin Hogan, QB, Browns ($3): Hogan is a desperation pickup only, as even Cleveland does not want him to start, but it looks like he will in Week 8 against the Jets. Unless Josh McCown accelerates his recovery timetable, Hogan and his 100 yards of passing from last week (and two interceptions) will be forced to start. Best to look elsewhere.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
