Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 3 of the 2014 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Josh Gordon, WR, Browns ($555): I mentioned him last week, and now we have a better feel – he will be back in Week 12 most likely. That’s a big gamble as he has to ride your bench for most of your regular season. If you have a deep bench (6+ spots) and can get him, do so. You won’t find a better wide receiver for your fantasy postseason anywhere else on the waiver wire.
- Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs ($335): Jamaal Charles’ underrated understudy becomes the starter with Charles out for several weeks with a high ankle sprain. Charles looked good as a rusher and receiver against Denver in Week 2, and he should see 20+ touches a week as the primary Kansas City back.
- Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals ($205): A.J. Green is sidelined with turf toe, and Sanu becomes the top receiver for the Bengals – plus he has gadget pass play upside, as he displayed in Week 2 with a 50-yard completion.
- Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens ($205): If Pierce was cut last week in your league, fix that mistake and pick him up as the top back for the Ravens.
- Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts ($205): I might be going out on a limb, but I think it is a pretty thick one. Trent Richardson fumbled again this week and Bradshaw just looked better. I think Bradshaw is the better back to won in Indianapolis by a longshot.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns ($187): Cleveland’s top target with TE Jordan Cameron out remains Andrew Hawkins, and it seems to be working for Cleveland. He is a solid WR3 at this point, especially in PPR leagues.
- Niles Paul, TE, Washington ($185, 267 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Niles Paul is the top guy not just as a tight end with Jordan Reed out, but as the top target overall for Washington. Paul could continue the hot streak in Week 3 against Philadelphia.
- Delanie Walker, TE, Titans ($175, 255 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Walker got something of a gift touchdown against Dallas with a missed tackle resulting in a big run after the catch and score in Week 2, but results are results. Walker is a solid TE2 with upside.
- Khiry Robinson, RB, Saints ($175): Mark Ingram (hand) will miss several weeks, opening the door for Robinson as a running back to split time with Pierre Thomas in the New Orleans backfield. Thomas will see more pass play work, with Robinson more rushes, but it could easily be a 50-50 timeshare for both.
- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers ($165): DeAngelo Williams missed Week 2, and Stewart was the top rusher for Carolina and found the end zone. He lacks a big burst and top gear but he can find the end zone, and that is what you want most for a ball carrier.
- Donald Brown, RB, Chargers ($162): Ryan Mathews is out (knee) for over a month, and Brown will be the top ball carrier – but his upside is limited with Danny Woodhead as the top PPR option as a receiver out of the San Diego backfield.
- James Jones, WR, Raiders ($160): Jones is the top target and producer for a bad team, but a 9-112-1 production in Week 2 is still worth fantasy value. Jones is a WR3 with WR2 upside, but not for the faint of heart.
- Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington ($157): Some teams might have lost a quarterback this past week, so be on the lookout for a QB with upside. That is what you get with Kirk Cousins, who has arguably looked better under center for Washington than Robert Griffin III. He has good matchups coming up against Philadelphia and the Giants.
- Larry Donnell, TE, Giants ($156, 220 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Donnell is the top receiver and target for the Giants. Yes, you read that right. Go get him if you need a tight end.
- Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs ($155, 215 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Kelce has been a sleeper tight end for a while now, and he is getting more and more work for Kansas City. He has TE2 value now but the stock is ascending, and he could be startable soon.
- Bobby Rainey, RB, Buccaneers ($135): Doug Martin was inactive in Week 2, and Rainey led the effort against Carolina for Tampa Bay out of the backfield. His numbers were not that high and the quarterback (Josh McCown) stole the touchdowns, but Rainey has starter ability and RB2/flex value in the right matchups.
- Geno Smith, QB, Jets ($135): If you lost Griffin III last week, Smith is a solid replacement with games coming against the Bears and Lions.
- Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins ($127): Did someone in your league cut Miller for Knowshon Moreno? Time to scoop him up as the starter with Moreno out for about a month.
- Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings ($117): Asiata is the next starter in Minnesota, and it seems inevitable that Adrian Peterson will be suspended. Jerick McKinnon is also more talented, so you can do better.
- Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders ($115): McFadden is back as the top back for Oakland with Maurice Jones-Drew banged up. We knew that one of them would get injured and the other would be the starter, but keep in mind that this is sill the Raiders.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Andre Roberts, WR, Washington ($55): If DeSean Jackson misses time with a shoulder injury, Roberts is in line to start for Washington. He has the talent to perform if he plays every snap.
- Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings ($37): Sneaky deep league pickup here as McKinnon could be the top back for Minnesota later this year if (when) Peterson is suspended and everyone realizes Matt Asiata is not that good.
- Drew Stanton, QB, Cardinals ($25): The good news for Stanton – he has Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald as his top two targets, plus RB Andre Ellington. The bad news? Stanton isn’t that good. If you are desperate for a QB this week, he is your backup, backup option, especially facing San Francisco in Week 3.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
