Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with six teams off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Denver and Seattle were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: Time for some fantasy self-reflection. If your team is 5-2 or better, you are likely a playoff team and you can start stacking your bench for the playoffs. If you are 3-4 or worse, you have to gamble and get wins, so bid big for any help you can get now.
Week 9 Comment: Time to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 Comment: Time is running short to make some moves. With major stars on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: Bye weeks are almost behind us, with just six more teams to take a week off. Now it is time to roster some guys to back up your top backs and receivers and get the roster set for your fantasy playoffs.
Week 12 Comment: You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Week 13 Comment: You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Week 14 Comment: It is clearly time to go "all in". These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Week 15 Comment: Same as last week - It is clearly time to go "all in". These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 14 of the 2014 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts ($427): Moncrief scored two long touchdowns for Andrew Luck in Week 13, but he only had four targets and three catches. Last week he moved ahead of Hakeem Nicks on the depth chart, and now Reggie Wayne is showing his age with drops – and rumors are swirling that Wayne may get demoted or shut down soon. All that spells “huge value” for Moncrief, and he is one of the top waiver wire targets to go get right now. Grab him if you can, especially if you own Wayne.
- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers ($387): Stewart topped the century mark last week for the first time since 2010, and now he gets Tampa Bay and Cleveland to end the year. Stewart is a sneaky pickup and fantasy starting option for December.
- Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders ($321): Murray was back in action last week and so much for being eased back in – he had 23 carries for 76 yards and 2-9 receiving against San Francisco. Now he gets Kansas City again this week, the game where he broke out a few weeks ago. Add him if you can.
- Daniel Herron, RB, Colts ($315): The Colts did not use Herron much last week against Cleveland, but he was used more than Trent Richardson. Herron had eight rushes and five catches and is the top back for Andrew Luck, so that has value.
- Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings ($257): I warned you not to let Johnson’s quiet Week 13 prevent you from adding him, and look what happened. He racked up over 100 yards and a touchdown, and nearly had two. Minnesota faces Detroit this week, who just gave up a big day to Mike Evans. Johnson is no Evans, but he does offer value as a WR3 with upside as a starter for the Vikings.
- Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars ($225): Jacksonville has to throw more and more, and Lee is seeing a lot more targets now with Allen Robinson done for the year. Lee has seen 21 targets in the past three weeks with 14 catches to show for it. He is a decent WR3 option and flex play.
- LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots ($223): Blount led the Patriots in rushing for the second week in a row. While he failed to find the end zone, New England loves to hammer the ball between the tackles in December, and Blount will get those carries.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington ($195): Even with issues at quarterback in Washington, the top receiver is worth a roster spot. Now with DeSean Jackson banged up, Garcon could see a ton of targets.
- Marquess Wilson, WR, Bears ($190): It’s December, so finding starters on the waiver wire is not easy. Well, here is one with Wilson moving into the starting lineup with Brandon Marshall out for the rest of the year. Add him but do not expect him to see more targets than Alshon Jeffery or Martellus Bennett.
- Davante Adams, WR, Packers ($188): Up and down, up and down goes Adams’ value, right along with his targets and fantasy value. Aaron Rodgers’ WR3 has value, but is a very risky and inconsistent weekly start.
- Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers ($155): Eddie Royal saw a lot of targets again from Philip Rivers on Sunday against the Patriots with Keenan Allen on Revis Island all night. I like Royal to see plenty of targets again this week against Denver.
- Andre Williams, RB, Giants ($147): Rashad Jennings was active last week, but it was Williams who put up the big day with over 100 yards rushing and a touchdown against Tennessee last week. Williams’ value is hinged upon Jennings, so if Jennings is out, Williams is a solid lineup decision as a starter.
- Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders ($145): Even with Latavius Murray back last week, Derek Carr and Oakland found ways to get the ball in Reece’s hands. Reece finished as a 7-64 receiver with a touchdown on checkdowns, and offers reasonable value in PPR leagues or teams in dire need of RB help.
- Chris Johnson, RB, Jets ($145): While I do not like picking up Jets right now, you have to acknowledge Johnson’s recent performance and a great matchup against Tennessee this week.
- Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings ($140): Beggars can’t be choosers this time of year. Asiata is a starting tailback right now by default, so that alone makes him a RB2/3/flex option. If you are desperate for RB help, here is a reasonable suggestion who could find the end zone.
- Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins ($135): If you have a need for a WR3 in a PPR league, here you go. Landry gets 5-7 catches and 50-70 yards most week, but not much more.
- Chris Ivory, RB, Jets ($133): See Chris Johnson, minus a few bucks for the second backfield option here.
- Cole Beasley, WR, Cowboys ($127): Cole Beasley is a fast, quick, speedy slot receiver that Tony Romo loves to use to move the chains. With Jason Witten slowing way down and Terrance Williams trailing off, Beasley has some upside, as he demonstrated with two touchdowns on Thanksgiving.
- Juwan Thompson, RB, Broncos ($125): Once again Thompson saw limited work behind C.J. Anderson, but he is one injury away from a huge upside role for Denver.
- Johnny Manziel, QB, Browns ($115): Same as last week… if Manziel gets the starting nod, the hype will be out of control. Manziel has good matchups in the next three weeks (Cincinnati Sunday, Carolina in Week 16) plus Baltimore in Week 17. Love him or hate him, Manziel has solid fantasy upside if he becomes the starter for the Browns.
- Stedman Bailey, WR, Rams ($115): Bailey was quiet last week after posting 100 yards receiving on five receptions in Week 13. His value and targets go up and down, but he is a decent pickup this late in the year.
- Kamar Aiken, WR, Ravens ($113): Torrey Smith was a decoy last week with his knee flaring up in pre-game warmups. If Smith misses time again, Aiken is a very sneaky play as he found the end zone and put up respectable numbers in a spot start against Miami last week. Baltimore has a good matchup against Jacksonville this week too, so he is a solid option in deeper leagues (or Smith owners).
- Jake Locker, QB, Titans ($113): If you need a quarterback this late in the year, Locker is the new (old?) starter for Tennessee. He has two great matchups (Jets, Jaguars) the next two weeks, so he could be a big sleeper.
- Nick Foles, QB, Eagles ($111): Will Philadelphia go back to Foles once he is healthy, and if so, will it be in Week 16 or 17? If you want to add a possible fantasy playoff hero (or if you own Mark Sanchez) grab him now before his price skyrockets.
- Reggie Bush, RB, Lions ($101): Need a risky pickup that could be a RB1 for you? Grab Reggie Bush if someone gave up on him. He’s a gamble against Minnesota and Chicago the next two weeks, but he has the talent to explode and score every time he touches the ball.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons ($100): I put Douglas as a sneaky pickup now that he is back to action and Roddy White is banged up again. Matt Ryan will throw often the rest of the way, and the Falcons will need all three receivers to be actively involved even if White is healthy.
- Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons ($87): Steven Jackson is running well in Atlanta, but I see more speed and more spark with Freeman. If Jackson gets tripped up at all, Freeman could be a sleeper to step up as a RB2 in December.
- Andre Roberts, WR, Washington ($86): With DeSean Jackson banged up, Roberts moves into the starting lineup and offers some value – if not a ton. Roberts is a good depth option in deeper leagues.
- Any handcuff RB - Any Team ($75): If you have money left and do not know what to do, pick up a backup RB and hope he moves up the depth chart (or handcuff a starter already on your team).
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
