There are all kinds of games that you can play with football as the backdrop. Fantasy football is the King of the Hill, but it is not the only game in town. Office pools are all over the place with varying formats -- picking every game winner either against the spread or by ranking each game on a point scale (also known as a confidence pool). Another favorite game that is not quite as common but that has been around for quite a while is the Eliminator or Survivor pool.
The reality television show "Survivor" has been on 30+ seasons (believe it or not, the anniversary of the first Survivor season finale just passed, on August 23rd - way back in 2000), and the premise has been the same since the beginning -- Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. The concept is pretty simple, and has been around for ages -- last man (or woman) standing wins. That is the idea behind Eliminator or Survivor pools -- everyone is on the same footing when the season starts, and all you have to do is to pick one team to win their game that given week. If you are right, you move on to the next week, but if they lose -- you are eliminated from the pool. The other trick is that once you pick a given team, you cannot use them again the rest of the way, making it progressively harder to find that winning team each week.
Variations on this theme do exist, including pools where you can "buy back in" after one misstep and also the inverted method where you have to pick a team that will lose that week instead of win. All of them are valid ways to play, but for simplicity I am going to focus on the simplest version here -- win or go home every week. Also for ease of description, I will simply call this contest a Survivor pool.
Earlier this year, I wrote an article on these types of leagues (Survivor Pool Strategy), and back then I promised readers that I would follow up that article with a “Master Plan” prior to Week 1 for this coming NFL regular season. This is that article. It would be a good idea to refresh your minds as to the “Rules of Engagement” I have learned over the years when it comes to playing in these types of contests, and I will refer back to those rules when I outline this plan. In addition, I also produced a handy dandy chart to refer to that can be found in my other survivor article from the preseason (Prepping for Survivor Leagues - Revised), which took two passes to finally get a chart that I was happy with and to share. All of this information, along with the latest news, is what led to this plan. So here we go.
THE PRESEASON MASTER PLAN
As I mentioned earlier, I have learned a lot of lessons on what to do (and what not to do) when it comes to being competitive in Survivor pools. Having played in these types of contests for nearly two decades, I have come up with a number of rules that I try to adhere to when it comes to developing my plan to be both competitive and keep my entry alive in these contests, year after year. That was the main subject for the first part of this series, but now it is time to apply some of those rules to develop my first take at a Master Plan. Keep in mind, all good plans have some wiggle room and ability to change, so nothing is set in stone – but if I was forced to pick 17 winners in a row before the league kicks off after Labor Day, this would be my best attempt. Here we go:
Applying the first rule:
First rule of Survivor pools -- pick good teams. Yes, this is the kind of deep analysis you can expect from this article. Seriously though, this sounds simple, but it is important to start with your list of teams that you want to use this season. I tend to start by looking at the teams that made it to the playoffs from the year before and also any team that had at least nine wins a year ago.
OK – Starting with good teams, I picked out the teams with at least eight wins last year. That led me to the following teams:
AFC – New England (12), New York Jets (10), Buffalo (8), Cincinnati (12), Pittsburgh (10), Houston (9), Indianapolis (8), Denver (12) and Kansas City (11)
NFC – Washington (9), Minnesota (11). Green Bay (10), Detroit (10), Carolina (15), Atlanta (8), Arizona (13) and Seattle (10)
That list gives me nine AFC teams and seven NFC teams – 16 in all – which is a pretty solid start to figuring out my Survivor Plan.
Now let’s look at Rule #2:
Find bad teams -- Similar concept to the first rule, but this is actually a bit harder. Teams that are terrible last year often make major changes because they have to and possibly because they changed over coaches, personnel or both. If you can predict the 3-5 worst teams for the coming year, though, you will be well on your way to winning your Survivor pool.
Well, I believe that the three worst teams for 2016 will be the Titans, Browns and 49ers . Now last year I pegged the Jaguars, Bills, Titans and Jets as the four worst teams - and that didn't work out so well. That just goes to show how hard it is to figure out the truly bad teams. That said, I feel good about my bad picks (that sounds weird, but it works for me). I like to target teams with weakness at quarterback, defense or both. The league is a pass-happy, quarterback driven league, so you better either have a good QB or a defense to stop one to compete. Tennessee could be good, but they are going to be very conservative and are geared towards a run first offense. Combine that with three wins last year and I can see them struggling for more than five victories. Vegas tends to agree with me, putting the Over/Under for Tennessee wins in 2016 at 5.5. So far, so good.
Now comes the 49ers - and this one feels like a cakewalk choice. Blaine Gabbert is their starting quarterback, and I struggle naming even a handful of defensive players. Recipe for lack of success once again is a weak QB and a bad defense, and San Francisco easily hits both marks. Vegas agrees with another 5.5 win total on the year, which by the way is their lowest number for any team (both Titans and 49ers) except for one team....
You guessed it. Cleveland sits on the Las Vegas board at a paltry 4.5 wins. I think they could get to five or six, but I feel pretty confident about marking them down for a sub-.500 season. Robert Griffin III is trying to rekindle his career, and usually Cleveland is not the place for football comebacks. Granted the Browns have some interesting offensive options and I think they are better than last year, but last year they were 3-13. In favorable matchups for the opposition, I will be all over a win against Cleveland most weeks.
Now I have three bad teams marked on my schedule. Matchups will dictate which teams to target, but when in doubt I will look to these teams (and their opponents) for a win.
And then, Rule #3:
Start planning the entire season, almost. I like to look at the season in six stages, breaking up the NFL regular season into 3-game groups from Week 1 onward. That makes for five groups (Weeks 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12 and 13-15) plus the last two weeks of the year. I leave Weeks 16 and 17 in isolation for two reasons. First, I hope that the contest I am playing is over by then, and I don't have to worry about those weeks. Second, those two weeks are now riddled with divisional matchups, which make them very hard to pick. I know going in to that phase of the regular season that I will have to be making difficult selections, and I will leave those for the end game of the contest. If I think that the contest will last to Week 16 or 17, I will start planning for that eventuality around Week 13 or 14.
My plan here is to script out the first 15 games, and then play it by ear for the last two weeks when the NFL Schedule is riddled with divisional games. By then I hope that (A) the contest might be over, (B) the good teams (and bad teams) will present themselves quickly, and (C) I will still be alive and kicking with just two games to go.
Rather than breaking this down team by team, let's go week by week, which is what we really want to know about anyway:
WEEK 1:
Teams to consider: Seattle, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Houston, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Arizona
Summary: This is probably the longest list, and for good reason. All 32 teams are in play here, so I have to consider not just good matchups for Week 1 but also who I want to save for later. As you will read, this is why I cannot use Green Bay, Kansas City or Arizona this week. I would have loved to use the Eagles at home against Cleveland, but trading away your starting quarterback a week before kickoff is a rather big red flag for me. Same for trading for your quarterback after your starter blows out his knee - so goodbye Philly and Minnesota. Indianapolis is a tough call because I see the game with the Lions as a shootout, and I can't trust my pick to a 37-34 type contest. What is left becomes the hard choice of using a big favorite at home in Seattle that could have a lot of good matchups down the road or using up the Texans against the Bears in their home opener. You cannot go wrong with either pick, but I decided to go with the second biggest favorite to save the Seahawks.
The Pick: Houston
WEEK 2:
Teams to consider: Carolina, Carolina and Carolina. (OK, maybe Detroit)
Summary: Some weeks you just do not overthink. The Panthers host the 49ers at 1PM Eastern. Defending NFC Champions against a 5-11 team led by Blaine Gabbert. Did I mention the 49ers are playing at 1PM Eastern? How about that Carolina has four more days of rest after playing Thursday and San Francisco playing the late Monday Night Football game in Week 1? Detroit hosting Tennessee has a little appeal as a pivot, but can you trust the Lions? I can't. Let's take the free square and move on, shall we?
The Pick: Carolina
WEEK 3:
Teams to consider: Carolina (used), Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay
Summary: Here is why I saved the Packers. Sure, you can argue that Seattle should breeze over the 49ers at home, or that Tampa Bay should take care of the Rams, but Green Bay is my call here. Despite this being a divisional game (one of the rules I try not to break), this the Lambeau home opener before the Packers go into their Week 4 bye. After what should be some tough competition (at Jacksonville, at Minnesota) the Packers will want to pound on the Lions and start the home year off 1-0, and I see no reason not to believe that they will against a Detroit team that could struggle this year (expected wins for Detroit = 7). I will fade Seattle again against another divisional game they should win to save them once again for later (same for Tampa Bay).
The Pick: Green Bay
WEEK 4:
Teams to consider: Arizona and NOT WASHINGTON
Summary: A few people are going to fall into the first major trap game I saw on the schedule. Washington hosting the lowly Browns? Easy, right? Not so fast, my friends. The Narrative Street is a big one here with Robert Griffin III returning to Washington and I don't want any part of this game as it screams "trap" to me. Robert Griffin III is returning to the city in which he was once the golden boy to face his former team - the team that drafted him in Round 1 and made him the starter - the team that he took to the playoffs and then replaced him with Kirk Cousins. Remember Rule #4 from "Survivor Pool Strategy" - avoid all rivalries of any kind). That leaves me with Arizona hosting the Rams - a divisional game, yes, but the Cardinals are good enough a team to overcome that hurdle.
The Pick: Arizona
WEEK 5:
Teams to consider: New England, Detroit and NOT ARIZONA
Summary: The Lions host the Eagles in what should be one of their better win chances (and a start of a mini-run with three games at home against Philadelphia, Los Angeles and Washington). While that has some appeal, I really cannot trust Detroit no matter how they look this year. They have been Fool's Gold for so long, I need a lot more proof that they are a good team, especially after the loss of Calvin Johnson. Another game to avoid is Arizona at San Francisco. That looks like an easy "W" but it has three strikes against it for the Cardinals - road game, divisional matchup and a short week. This is why you need to use Arizona in Week 4. That leaves a simple choice - New England at Cleveland. Tom Brady is back under center, and he might put up 50 points this week just to remind the league that he's back. Ride that wave to another big "W" in Week 5.
The Pick: New England
WEEK 6:
Teams to consider: Detroit, Buffalo, Seattle
Summary: The Lions are back on this list with their second home game in a row against the Rams. Los Angeles is a tough team to gauge, because they have a very good defense and one of the top running backs in the league - and a very good kicker. That combination is dangerous enough to beat any team in any week, and I see them as a walking, talking trap game whenever they face anyone this season. I know, I know - I just got done saying that Arizona against the Rams is the call in Week 4, but no plan is perfect, and a very good team at home should be able to overcome a tough matchup - but not Detroit. Scratch them off the list for Week 6. Seattle at home again after their Week 5 to host Atlanta is enticing, but I want to sue them a little later. Buffalo gets my call here as they host the 49ers at 1PM Easterrn in the only home game that Buffalo gets between Week 4 and Week 8. I like the Bills to control this game from start to finish and get the win - and we get a "steal" of a pick here by using an 8-8 team from last season, saving former playoff teams for later.
The Pick: Buffalo
WEEK 7:
Teams to consider: Detroit, Cincinnati, Kansas City, New York Jets, NOT PHILADELPHIA
Summary: The Lions are becoming a fixture here, but we have beat them to death. Do not trust them at home against Washington, who actually might be a road favorite here. The Jets host Baltimore after what will be a rough trip to Arizona on Monday Night Football in Week 6, but this should be a game that they are favored by a touchdown or more. I like them here, but I like the Bengals even more hosting the Browns. Yes, we are breaking the "no divisional rule" game here, but we have a very good playoff team (Cincinnati) at home against a Browns team that might be still coming down off of the emotional rollercoasters of a trip to Washington in Week 4, a matchup with Tom Brady in Week 5 and possibly a win over Tennessee. I considered the Eagles this week against what I thought would be a Minnesota team lacking a quarterback, but now it turns into a huge "Narrative Street" game with Bradford heading back to the City of Brotherly Love. Total fade now. Kansas City hosts the Saints and they should be favored by more than a touchdown here at home. I can see taking either the Chiefs or the Bengals, so I will stick with one of my rules and pass on the divisional matchup for Kansas City this week.
The Pick: Kansas City
WEEK 8:
Teams to consider: Houston, New York Jets, Tampa Bay and NOT JACKSONVILLE
Summary: Here is one of the reasons I considered saving the Texans from Week 1 - Week 8 is a mess. Six teams are on a bye week, and I see several tough matchups either between two good teams or two bad teams. Plus I see a trap game where Jacksonville heads to Tennessee, which looks like a win for the Jaguars but the game is squarely between two games against potential AFC playoff contenders in Oakland (yes, Oakland) and Kansas City. NFL players are human and they sometimes look past an "easy" matchup, only to get smacked in the mouth by that allegly soft team. Avoid the Jaguars here. I would use the Texans at home against the Lions, who could be feeling rather good after three home games in a row, but Houston could be looking past Detroit at their Week 9 bye week and treating this one as a week off as well. Another good reason to use up the Texans in Week 1. The Jets are playing the Browns on the road, but I like Tampa Bay even better here against the Raiders. I do like Oakland overall this season, but the Raiders have to travel to the East Coast two weeks in a row, and they could easily be ripe for the picking in Week 8. I like this spot to use up a second tier pick with the Buccaneers at home.
The Pick: Tampa Bay
WEEK 9:
Teams to consider: Dallas, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle and the New York Giants
Summary: Welcome to another tough week in Week 9, where six teams are on a bye once again. You can gamble on the Giants at home against the Eagles or hope that Tony Romo is back to lead Dallas on a road trip to Cleveland - but I struggle to trust either contest. Kansas City is home again against Jacksonville, which should be a tough matchup. San Diego hosting Tennessee is tempting but I cannot trust the Chargers. So that leaves the Seahawks, hosting Buffalo on Monday Night Football. The Bills will hit the road in Week 9 after a home game against the Patriots, the Bills' second AFC East game in two weeks. Buffalo will not be favored in this one and the Bills head for a Week 10 bye, so I think they will check out early and Seattle will get an easy win at home in a national broadcast game. This is why I have been saving Seattle.
The Pick: Seattle
WEEK 10:
Teams to consider: Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Washington, Baltimore, Arizona and the New York Jets
Summary: Slim pickings continue as we start to wrap up bye weeks here in Week 10. Green Bay heads to Tennessee, but most likely you have used up the Packers. That should also be the case with Arizona hosting the 49ers. Washington host Minnesota, and I do not know what to make of that game, so I will pass. Pittsburgh is interesting as they host the Cowboys, but I like the Steelers much later in the season and who knows what shape Dallas will be in come November. I have the Jets circled here in a home contest at 1PM against the Rams, who will be heading back to the East Coast after a tough home game against Carolina. This is a riskier pick, I know, and this one could easily change as we get into the year - but for now, I am taking the Jets over the Rams in Week 10. A secondary pick I might consider is Baltimore (home, on a short week) against Cleveland, but that has some risk to it as well.
The Pick: New York Jets
WEEK 11:
Teams to consider: Cincinnati, Kansas City, Seattle
Summary: The Seahawks hosting the Eagles will be enticing, and nice job if you managed to save Seattle this long. Kansas City hosting Tampa Bay also looks pretty good, but my plan calls for using both before Week 11 - which leaves Cincinnati hosting Buffalo. One of the reasons I like this one is this is the only home game for the Bengals between Week 7 and Week 12, as Week 8 is in London and Week 9 is a bye week. Players get jacked up for a home game, especially if it feels like forever since the last one. The Bills will be coming off of their bye week, but I think that challenge is easily overcome by a much better Bengals team.
The Pick: Cincinnati
WEEK 12:
Teams to consider: Houston, Chicago, New Orleans, Miami and the New York Giants
Summary: Look at that - New Orleans finally made the cut, and the Bears are back on the short list! Either they have outstanding matchups or Week 12 is a landmine. Or maybe one of these two teams will be pushing for the playoffs? Don't hold your breath for that one. This is a tough week even with Chicago hosting Tennessee and the Saints hosting the Rams. Houston (hosting the Chargers) is not a bad matchup, but I used them already, so that's a scratch for me. Reflecting back on that "Prepping for Survivor" chart reminds me that the Giants are heading to Cleveland in Week 12, right before the Browns take a week off. The Giants could be in a playoff push here with Dallas' loss of Tony Romo and who knows what is up with the Eagles, so every game will be big for New York. I like the Giants, even on the road, to go and get a win here in Cleveland. Lastly I have to mention the 49ers going to Miami, which could be a reasonable pivot if the Dolphins are still competitive.
The Pick: New York Giants
WEEK 13:
Teams to consider: Cincinnati, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Arizona
Summary: Let's not dwell on Arizona (hosting Washington) or Cincinnati (hosting the Eagles) as more than likely these two teams have been used up by now. Pittsburgh hosts the Giants and should be favored, but this feels like two good passing offenses about to square off in a 37-34 type game. No thanks. That only leaves me with the Bears, but the matchup is perfect - the 49ers are coming to play at 1PM in early December, so you know it is not a fun trip for the 49ers. San Francisco will be on their second game of a back-to-back trip to the East Coast after visiting Miami in Week 12, and I think the jetlag will hit them right after kickoff. Do I love taking the Bears? No, but you have to find a game like this in the schedule to figure out a Master Plan for all 17 weeks. I think you can steal a "W" here with a mediocre team (Bears are expected to win 7.5 games), so I am penciling in Chicago as we get to December in Week 13.
The Pick: Chicago
WEEK 14:
Teams to consider: Cincinnati, Carolina and Denver
Summary: The Bengals (hosting Cleveland) and Panthers (hosting San Diego) are in that category of likely favorites to win but probably used by now, so let's skip over those two teams. I would love to tell you that I have another strong pick, but I have to settle on the Broncos traveling to Tennessee here. This is a tough one, as the Broncos have to travel two weeks in a row, but Denver to Jacksonville and Tennessee is not as bad of two flights as a true West Coast team - and Denver's defense travels extremely well. I think that by Week 14 Denver should have a strong team identity and the Titans should be prepping for next year's draft. This one may not be a pretty win, but I think it is a win for the Broncos nonetheless. It's getting late in the year and picks are much harder now, but I like this spot for Denver.
The Pick: Denver
WEEK 15:
Teams to Consider: Kansas City, Atlanta, Arizona, Buffalo, Carolina, Green Bay, Seattle and the New York Giants
Summary: The Chiefs host Tennessee, but I used them already, just like the Cardinals (hosting the Saints), Bills (hosting Cleveland) and Giants (home against the Lions. Three other good teams have tougher matchups that they look on paper, so I am happy to skip over the Packers (hosting Jacksonville), Seahawks (home against the Rams) and Panthers (at Washington). That leaves just one team on the list for consideration - the Atlanta Falcons. Do not sleep on Atlanta here, as they could be competitive (Over / Under is 7.5 wins) and they get San Francisco on yet aontoehr trip to the East Coast - the third in four weeks. Not a sexy pick, but, like my pick of the Bears in Week 13, this one has a "Stolen W" written all over it. If your contest has run all the way to Week 15, take the Falcons and hope others miss this sleeper win (although I expect Las Vegas to highlight it rather obviously here).
The Pick: Atlanta
WEEK 16:
Teams to Consider: Carolina, New England, Jacksonville and Dallas
Summary: Thnigs are winding down quickly here, with just two weeks left on the season. That's good news, because we are running out of teams. Carolina (vs. Atlanta) and New England (hosting Tampa Bay) should be long gone from your list of choices, so we are left to take either Dallas (home against Detroit) or Jacksonville (home against Tennessee). Both teams should be heavily favored here, so either pick makes sense - but I think the Cowboys might be on the fringe of a Wild Card here and a win on Monday Night Football in JerryWorld might be just what Tony Romo needs. I will tentatively take the Cowboys here but a fallback of the Jaguars is not a bad "Plan B".
The Pick: Dallas (else Jacksonville)
WEEK 17:
Teams to Consider: Everyone not used (half-joking), but probably Carolina, Green Bay, Houston, New England, Pittsburgh and Seattle
Summary: If you have managed to save any of the teams above, nice job. My plan only has Pittsburgh left, and they are hosting the Browns in the season finale. The Steelers and the Browns are a big rivalry, but a one-sided one. Remember my rule of not picking rivalries? Well, good luck in Week 17 with every contest lined up to be a divisional game. Looking at the likely situation, Pittsburgh is probably playing for a playoff spot while Cleveland is playing a spolier role yet again. When these two teams play each other, however, you can throw the records out as the Steelers love nothing more than to beat the Browns, time after time. PIttsburgh is 10-2 against Cleveland this decade, and one of those two losses came because of eight turnovers with Charlie Batch at quarterback for the Steelers. Odds and history are well on the Pittsburgh side here, so that is my call to wrap the season with a hopefully 17-0 record.
The Pick: Pittsburgh
PARTING THOUGHTS
I know that this has been a long article, but I hope that the read was worth it. Here's a quick summary of how well I did using my "winning teams" list:
AFC – New England (Week 5), New York Jets (10), Buffalo (6), Cincinnati (11), Pittsburgh (17), Houston (1), Indianapolis (Not Used), Denver (14) and Kansas City (7)
NFC – Washington (Not Used), Minnesota (Not Used). Green Bay (3), Detroit (Not Used), Carolina (2), Atlanta (15), Arizona (4) and Seattle (9)
As you can see, I used 14 of the 17 teams off of the list as my primary picks. I chose to skip Minnesota (no Teddy Bridgewater) and Detroit (Calvin Johnson retired) for obvious reasons, while Washington and Indianapolis did not line up well on the schedule. The three teams I am trying to steal wins with that are not on this list are Chicago (Over/Under of 7.5 wins, chosen Week 13 at home against the 49ers), Tampa Bay (Also 7.5 wins, chosen Week 8 at home against Oakland) and the Giants (8 wins, chosen Week 12 at Cleveland). Overall I am quite satisfied with the results, and I think this is a great start.
Survivor pools are a lot of fun, and it makes for a great contest to keep you interested in the NFL for most -- if not all -- of the regular season. Finding a contest like this and potentially winning the prize is a great way to enjoy the sport we all love in yet another way, so go ahead and play in one this year. With any luck, proper planning and the advice you read here will get you a long way towards winning that pool.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.