For The Win: Week 7

Photo: USA Today Sports

Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season, I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.

Another up and (mostly) down week again, and it is getting old.  I went 6-4 on my Picks of the Week (Good) and split the games overall at 7-7.  Thanks to big upsets by the Giants and the Steelers, I missed out on what could have been once again.  I think I will try and simplify, get back to basics and just do the K.I.S.S. method this week, as there are some rather straightforward calls.  Once again, I am sticking with the concept that favorites either win and cover or they lose outright most of the time, and the numbers prove that out already this season.  With 91 games complete, only 17% of games has the point spread mattered, meaning either the favorite wins and covers (41 games this year) or the underdog wins outright (33) (two games were right on the point spread).  Let’s simplify and conquer here.  On to Week 7.  Here we go:

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

Teams on a Bye Week – Detroit, Houston

Teams coming off of a Bye Week – Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, Seattle

(Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-3) at OAKLAND
Both teams are strong here but are both coming off of a home loss in Week 6.  The only good news for the Chiefs is that it was not a divisional loss to the Steelers unlike the Raiders’ loss to the Chargers. Derek Carr is back under center and looked okay, but not great.  The Chiefs are strong in all areas, but Tyreek Hill and Charcandrick West are in the concussion protocol.  Oakland’s defense is suspect against the pass while the Chiefs are strong in most areas on both sides of the ball, but their biggest weakness may be against the run (4.8 YPC).  If Marshawn Lynch can get it going, the Raiders may make a push for the win here, and at 2-4 they certainly need it – but I am still leaning towards the 5-1 team even on the road.  Tougher call on a short week and with injuries, but I slightly lean to Kansas City here.  PICK: Chiefs

TAMPA BAY (+3) at BUFFALO
The line should not be Buccaneers +3 if Jameis Winston was healthy, and he could be by kickoff on Sunday.  That’s my total take on this game, but I will say that Tampa Bay has a better offense even if Ryan Fitzpatrick has to start.  The Bills would be better if they could throw more, and LeSean McCoy has upside in this contest, but overall it is pretty simple – Winston makes the Buccaneers at least an “even money” call in this one, and I think he plays.  PICK: Buccaneers

MINNESOTA (-5) vs. BALTIMORE
Baltimore is bad on offense – like, really bad.  The Ravens are 31^st overall in passing (under 160 yards per game) and while they are in the Top 10 in rushing (7^th, 129.5 YPG) their average is just 4.3 YPC – and there was some padding of those numbers early in the season.  I just do not like any of the Ravens on offense, and their defense (and special teams) was the only thing keeping them in that Bears game at home last week.  That’s right – they struggled – against Chicago – at home.  Now the “Deep Purple” game features Baltimore on the road at Minnesota, and the Vikings are favored by less than a touchdown.  This one looks too easy, but I am believing in “K.I.S.S.” this week and taking the simple play for me.  Minnesota by more than a seven.  PICK: Vikings

NEW YORK JETS (+3) at MIAMI
Two longtime rivals match up in Florida this week as the Jets head to Miami for a Sunday clash.  Remember how I just said that Baltimore is 31^st in passing?  Guess who is last?  No, not Cleveland – but good guess.  It is actually the Dolphins, and they face a Jets defense that is 11^th overall against passing attacks so far this season.  That means Jay Cutler is in for yet another bad performance unless Jay Ajayi leads the way, but the Jets have given up just one 100-yard rusher (LeSean McCoy, Week 2) and they also slammed the door on Ajayi in Week 3 (11-16 rushing, 2-9 receiving) in a 20-6 loss in New Jersey.  This one should be closer, but the Jets look to be the better team and they are 1-0 against Miami, so that means the simple answer is to take New York and the points.   PICK: Jets

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5) vs. ARIZONA (in London, England)
If you did not know there was a London game this week until right now, well, join the club.  The NFL snuck this one in with a 1PM Eastern start time, which led me to believe that there was not a game across the pond this week.  Surprise!  The good news is this is the last one this season (but there is a game in Mexico City in Week 11 – New England “at” Oakland).  There are two main reasons that I like the Rams this week.  First, they stayed in Jacksonville after their last game and practiced there for a few days before heading to England, which means Arizona had way further to travel.  Second, their “bio clocks” are going to be closer to the same for this week after last, with a “1PM Eastern” matching Florid much more closely than for the Cardinals, who will feel like it is a 10AM start for their players.  One more – Patrick Peterson is banged up, so that helps the Rams’ passing attack, which is near the top of the stat charts (fourth but first prior to last week’s tough matchup with Jacksonville).  Adrian Peterson will look to run through the worst run defense (Rams give up over 150 yards per game) but if it is a slow track in a rainy England (most likely) that will help the defense.  All signs point towards the Rams in this one.  PICK: Rams

JACKSONVILLE (-3) at INDIANAPOLIS
The Jaguars are good against the pass and not so good against the run, while the opposite is true for the Colts at least in looking at their pass defense (Indianapolis is close to average against the run).  Now, the Colts just lost Robert Turbin to injury, which would make Frank Gore quite the play if he wasn’t 150 years old.  Could he catch fire after drinking from the Fountain of Youth this Sunday?  Maybe, but I am going to bet against that.  As long as Leonard Fournette remains on track to play Sunday, I strongly like Jacksonville to take this one on a fast track in Indianapolis by more than a field goal.    PICK: Jaguars

NEW ORLEANS (-5.5) at GREEN BAY
To say that this is a tricky game to pick is wildly simplistic.  So many different variables and unknowns are in this game.  Who is Brett Hundley, and can we trust him?  We honestly have not seem much of him at all, as the former UCLA Bruin has been holding a clipboard for most of the past three years.  Now he is thrust into a starting role with solid receivers, but they face a surging Saints defense that has been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde on the young season.  New Orleans gave up a ton of points the first two weeks, but losses to good Minnesota and New England offenses (back when Dalvin Cook was healthy) may explain that away.  After Week 2, the Saints stifled Carolina 34-13 and shut out Miami 20-0 in London.  They also created a ton of turnovers and scored three times against Detroit, yet their prevent defense almost cost them in a 52-38 shootout that was 45-10 in the second half. So are the Saints good at defense?  Is Mark Ingram for real?  Can Brett Hundley lead the Packers on offense?  With so many unknowns, I will stick with Drew Brees against a weak secondary, a rejuvenated ground game with two options (Ingram and Alvin Kamara) and a defense capable of big plays against an inexperienced quarterback.  PICK: Saints

CAROLINA (-3) at CHICAGO
The Panthers are 4-2 on the season with respectable losses so far (Philadelphia, New Orleans) – and both losses came at home.  Carolina is actually 3-0 on the road, with big wins at New England, Detroit and also San Francisco in week 1.  Meanwhile Chicago is 2-4 but picked up an overtime win last week in Baltimore – but I do not trust a game between two weak teams, and the Ravens are weak.  The Bears are a different offense now behind Mitchell Trubisky, but most of that offense goes through Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.  Carolina is giving up just 3.4 YPC and if Luke Kuechly plays on Sunday (he is starting to practice) then I like the Panthers to move to 4-0 on the road against a weaker opponent.  PICK:  Panthers

TENNESSEE (-5.5) at CLEVELAND
I waivered a lot on this one, as the Browns are strong against the run (3.0 YPC) and that is the preferred method for the Titans to move the ball.  On a short week after playing on Monday, the Titans have a banged up DeMarco Murray but Derrick Henry can carry the mail if he is asked to be the workhorse for the week.  The Titans have Marcus Mariota, who can find Delanie Walker against a Browns team that is weak against the pass (which also improves the outlook for Rishard Matthews).  The Browns getting nearly a touchdown at home and good against the run gave me some pause here, but the Titans are better and Cleveland looks really bad.  That statement alone should make this call easy.  PICK: Titans

DALLAS (-5.5) at SAN FRANCISCO   
Occam’s Razor tells you to take the simplest answer to a question is the one with the least assumptions.  So here is what I know for this contest.  Dallas will have Ezekiel Elliott on Sunday, and they are coming off of a week-long bye.  San Francisco is winless (0-6) and road weary after three road games including two long trips in a row (at Indianapolis, at Washington).  I could go into some stats to prove why the 49ers have a chance here, but the bottom line for me is pretty simple – Dallas needs a win to try and keep pace with the Eagles, and the Cowboys are rested and taking on a winless team.  That should be all you need to know to take them this week.  PICK: Cowboys

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-1.5) vs. DENVER
The Chargers have won two games in a row after an abysmal 0-4 start to the year, while Denver just dropped a very winnable game at home to the 0-5 Giants.  Denver’s defense is good, but not great, and they can be picked apart if Philip Rivers gets time to throw.  Rivers is using his shorter passing game more with Melvin Gordon and tight end Hunter Henry, which will lead to better matchups and avoid the tough Denver cornerbacks.  The Broncos offense does not look very good right now, and Emmanuel Sanders will be out this week.  This is the perfect spot for the Chargers to continue their winning streak with a third victory at home over Denver.  PICK: Chargers 

PITTSBURGH (-5.5) vs. CINCINNATI
The Steelers are at home – check.  Antonio Brown is healthy – check.  LeVeon Bell is healthy – check.  Pittsburgh needs a win in the division to “get right” – check.  I get that the Bengals are coming off of a bye and that the Steelers are struggling, but by my count, Mike Tomlin is 17-4 against Cincinnati and have won the last four meetings.  Throw in that the Bengals are one of the worst teams running the ball and that Pittsburgh has only allowed four passing touchdowns all year and I say this is all about a Pittsburgh big win.  PICK: Steelers 

SEATTLE (-5.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
Now that we have the Giants’ first victory out of the way, we can go back to looking at just how bad they have been this year.  Denver really gave them that game more than Eli Manning took the victory, and Seattle’s offense is far more superior than that of the Broncos.  The Seahawks are coming off of a bye week and are well rested for a trip across the country to visit MetLife Stadium, and the late afternoon kickoff helps Seattle’s transition.  The Seahawks are strong against the pass but not so hot against the run (5.0 YPC against) – but can we trust Orleans Darkwa or Wayne Gallman?  If it was Bruce Wayne Gallman for Gotham City perhaps, but I am going to side with Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and (most importantly) Jimmy Graham, as the Giants cannot stop tight ends.  PICK: Seahawks

NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) vs. ATLANTA
Two things – how can DraftKings continue to not put Sunday Night Football on their Main Slate?  This is easily the best game of the week (and NBC has to LOVE that), but the DFS guys are hating that they cannot use the stars from this probable shootout.  Speaking of scoring – point two – how has Julio Jones not found the end zone yet?  That HAS to change against a New England pass defense that has yet to hold any quarterback under 300 yards this year.  This is going to be a shootout, plain and simple, as both teams are giving up 8+ yards per attempt in passing and the Falcons are giving up 4.8 yards per carry against (Patriots are at 4.0, probably because everyone throws all the time against them).  New England is averaging over 28 points against while the Falcons are just over 24, but look at their most recent performances, which were 17-point efforts against the Bills and Dolphins – both losses over the past three weeks.  Atlanta knows they have to score in this one, but the Patriots will look to outscore the Falcons, and will likely do just that, winning by a score close to 34-27.  PICK:  Patriots  

(Monday) PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) vs. WASHINGTON
This one looks too easy to me, but I am going to walk through it and stick with the plan.  The Eagles beat Washington in Week 1 in D.C., 30-17 – and the Eagles have been rolling almost ever since.  Now this rematch in is Philadelphia, and Washington will be without Josh Norman and possibly Bashaud Breeland on defense and have already had to add a second kicker after Dustin Hopkins hurt his hip.  This has all the makings of another perfect spot for the Eagles to take advantage of the opposition and extend their NFC East lead.  PICK: Eagles

BEST BETS

Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.

• TAMPA BAY (“FOR THE WIN” +140) at BUFFALO  (assuming this is available soon)  
• NEW YORK JETS (“FOR THE WIN” +155) at MIAMI
• ATLANTA (“FOR THE WIN” +155) vs. NEW ENGLAND

• (Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-3) at OAKLAND
• TAMPA BAY (+3) at BUFFALO  
• LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5) vs. ARIZONA (in London, England)
• JACKSONVILLE (-3) at INDIANAPOLIS
• NEW ORLEANS (-5.5) at GREEN BAY
• CAROLINA (-3) at CHICAGO
• TENNESSEE (-5.5) at CLEVELAND

• 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):

• TAMPA BAY (+9) at BUFFALO  
• DALLAS (+0.5) at SAN FRANCISCO   
• PITTSBURGH (+0.5) vs. CINCINNATI  
• (Monday) PHILADELPHIA (+1.5) vs. WASHINGTON 

• 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.10-1 ODDS):

• TAMPA BAY (+9) at BUFFALO  
• DALLAS (+0.5) at SAN FRANCISCO   
• PITTSBURGH (+0.5) vs. CINCINNATI  
• (Monday) PHILADELPHIA (+1.5) vs. WASHINGTON
• MINNESOTA (+1) vs. BALTIMORE 

• 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (6.1-1 ODDS):

• TAMPA BAY (+9) at BUFFALO  
• DALLAS (+0.5) at SAN FRANCISCO   
• PITTSBURGH (+0.5) vs. CINCINNATI  
• (Monday) PHILADELPHIA (+1.5) vs. WASHINGTON
• MINNESOTA (+1) vs. BALTIMORE
• SEATTLE (+0.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS  

• 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (8.9-1 ODDS):
  • TAMPA BAY (+9) at BUFFALO  
  • DALLAS (+0.5) at SAN FRANCISCO   
  • PITTSBURGH (+0.5) vs. CINCINNATI  
  • (Monday) PHILADELPHIA (+1.5) vs. WASHINGTON
  • MINNESOTA (+1) vs. BALTIMORE
  • SEATTLE (+0.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
  • TENNESSEE (+0.5) at CLEVELAND  

** TWO STAR GAMES **

• MINNESOTA (-5) vs. BALTIMORE
• DALLAS (-5.5) at SAN FRANCISCO   
• PITTSBURGH (-5.5) vs. CINCINNATI  
• SEATTLE (-5.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
• (Monday) PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) vs. WASHINGTON

• 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER: 
  • DALLAS (+0.5) at SAN FRANCISCO   
  • PITTSBURGH (+0.5) vs. CINCINNATI   

• 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER: 
• DALLAS (+0.5) at SAN FRANCISCO   
• (Monday) PHILADELPHIA (+1.5) vs. WASHINGTON

*** THREE STAR GAMES ***

• None this week

PICK(S) OF THE WEEK:  Tampa Bay, Los Angeles Rams, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Carolina, Tennessee, Minnesota, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Philadelphia 

RESULTS

Last Week

• OVERALL: 7-7 (50%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 10.6-13 (44.9%)
• PICK OF WEEK: 6-4 (60%)

Season

• OVERALL: 42-48-1 (46.7%)
• BEST BETS (STARS): 44.1-99-2 (30.8%)
• PICK OF WEEK: 23-21-1 (52.3%)

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com