The Dynasty Draft Calculator

Photo: Imagn Images

Quick reference:  You may download the calculator here.

Since the dawn of trading draft picks, everyone has tried to determine the "fair value" for a particular selection. Calculators abound, including our very own David Dodds' Calculator found here. Unfortunately for leagues that span multiple years, these calculators have little or no value. So how can you adequately calculate what a draft pick is worth in these formats?

Dynasty vs. redraft leagues

First, you have to understand the difference between dynasty leagues and redraft leagues. In a redraft league, you are essentially posing the question of "how will Player X help me over the next few months?" In dynasty leagues, that question is in terms of years rather than months, as you keep players multiple seasons (perhaps their entire career). That is the essence of the problem - how do you quantify a multi-year value?

To attempt a solution to this problem, I sought out two different sources of information. The first was the only multi-year valuation chart that I know of that exists - the NFL Draft Pick Chart, which gives a numerical value to every pick in the NFL Draft. This chart is the most useful one to dynasty league players, since the NFL is in essence a dynasty league. The value of each pick factors in that the selected player is supposed to play for their club for years.

The second resource I needed was to answer the natural follow-up question, "how many years?" With the help of fellow Footballguys, I found a study performed at Dartmouth University regarding the average career length of an NFL player, both in aggregate and also broken down by position. Now, many would question the validity of using that data, as some would say that there is no way to predict the length of a selected player's career or that a first rounder may last longer than a fourth round selection, but that is precisely why I selected that chart. The chart is the length of an average NFL career regardless of the round they were drafted, or even if they were an undrafted player. The data may vary by round (and that would be an interesting study), but for the purposes of pick calculations I have assumed that all NFL rookies have the same expected length of career associated with their position.

There are a few different variables that enter in to calculation of a pick value for a multi-year league. First is career length, but what about the league itself? How many teams are there? How big or small is the roster? How deep is the bench? How many starters? What matters, and by how much?

What I have done is rather complicated, but I have rolled all these numerous factors into a secret formula that produces a single number that I have labeled the "Dynasty Factor". The Dynasty Factor is the numerical value for your entire league, and it represents how valuable your draft picks are for your league. It can be used to compare different dynasty leagues with different rosters and starters, and gives an independent value to each league.

Rather than have everyone see the mathematical analysis and details of the "Secret Sauce", I will lay out some of the proportional relationships for the Dynasty Factor that you will see when you first start to use it. I will tell you that the following factors contribute to the Dynasty Factor in some way:

1. Roster Size
2. Number of Teams in the League
3. Number of Starters
4. Position(s) of Starters

The influence of each of these factors is complex, but I will attempt to give you a more intuitive feel for the tool as you start to take it for a test drive.

Roster Size - The pick values are indirectly proportional to your roster size. That is, as your roster size increases, the values decrease. To say it one more way, they are inversely related.

Why would that be? Well, if you have a deep bench, you can afford to put more rookies on your roster and wait for them to develop, so there is less pressure on you getting your picks right. You also have more room for veterans on your squad, so both factors reduce the pressure on getting the pick right (and right away), and thus the pick values go down accordingly. On the other hand, the Dynasty Factor goes up as your bench gets smaller. This makes sense - you have to "hit" on your rookies more often and they have to develop faster, else they will get cut in favor of other players. You don't have room to develop players over a period of years with a short bench.

Number of Teams in the League - As the number of teams increases, the value of the picks increase. Again, this passes the sanity check in that you have fewer draft picks and more teams are fighting for talent. Additionally, more players are rostered in the league and thus fewer talented players are available in free agency.

Number of Starters - As the number of starters increases (relative to your roster size), the bench gets shorter and the pressure on getting a good value in the draft goes up. This makes sense, as the rookie picks matter more when you start more players. Therefore, the value also goes up, and therefore Dynasty Factor is directly related to starters.

Position of Starters - This relationship is complicated, but suffice it to say that the more players that you have with shorter careers, the higher the Dynasty Factor for your league. This indicates the "rollover" of your roster, or how fast you have to churn talent through your team. If you are losing players every three or four years, you need a constant stream of young talent from the draft, increasing the value of your picks.

Note - The Dynasty Factor is NOT directly proportional to the ration of the number of starters divided my your team roster size. Why? Well, if you have 8 starters and 24 roster spots, finding starters is easier than if you have 16 starters and a bench of 48.

you down with idp? (Do you know me?)

Can the Dynasty Factor be used with IDP leagues? Absolutely. In fact, it shows something that many who play IDP probably already knew, but could not quantify. The addition of individual defensive players minimizes the impact of the offensive players, and also the typical influence of rookies.

Why would that be? Well, for one thing, many IDP leagues have roughly the same number of players on both sides of the ball. For example, that would mean eight IDPs for eight offensive players, minimizing any standout offensive player. In a regular league, Calvin Johnson or Peyton Manning would be one out of only eight starters, but in the IDP example he is just one of out of 16, so his individual influence on the total team score is less in an IDP format than in a league that uses a team defense.

Examples

Let's go over the Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator and a few examples.

I have set up two typical leagues, a regular league with eight starters and a team defense, and another with 16 players, half IDP. Here are the respective Dynasty Factors (See Tables 2 and 3).

1. Orange - Enter the number of teams in your league and the starting positions, along with your total roster size.
2. Blue - Enter the picks that you are considering trading away (the number of the pick in integer form, namely Pick 14, not 2.02 in a 12-team league).
3. Pink - Enter the picks that you are looking to obtain in a trade (again in integer form)