Running backs are dead. Long live running backs.
Fantasy footballers have long sought an indictment against the position. The grand jury convened after 2015 and came back with one.
Last season the running back position was an unmitigated disaster from a fantasy football perspective, running teams everywhere with a devastating combination of injury and underperformance. Few top-tier backs were left standing atop the fantasy rankings after 2015 got done with them. We are witnessing the aftermath of the carnage as the first round has become a wide receiver free-for-all.
But the position isn't dead. It was just knocked unconscious. It'll be back with a vengeance, and the fear permeating fantasy football circles will create plenty of values if you are looking in the right places.
So what are those places? You may recall the Fantasy Index series from a couple of season ago. Well, it's back, bringing you insights about player usage, effeciency and fantasy value this year. We can take a look back at last season to see what the numbers yielded us.
For the purposes of this article, all fantasy scoring is in points-per-reception (PPR) format.
- Att%/16: The percentage of rushing attempts prorated over 16 games.
- Tgt%/16: The percentage of targets prorated over 16 games.
- OvTD%: The overall touchdown rate for a player combining rushing attempts and targets.
- PPR: Points per reception
- PPG: PPR points per game
- PPO: Points per opportunity
- FPS/16: Fantasy points shares prorated over 16 games intended to show the amount of fantasy scoring a player garners compared to the rest of his team
- eFPS/16: A metric of FPS efficiecny based on the combined rushing and receiving averages for a player
| Player | Team | Att%/16 | Tgt%/16 | Opp%/16 | OvTD% | PPR | PPG | PPO | FPS/16 |
| Jamaal Charles | KC | 52.1% | 20.3% | 33.8% | 5.0% | 105.1 | 21.0 | 1.04 | 0.35 |
| Devonta Freeman | ATL | 66.9% | 16.7% | 35.9% | 3.9% | 320.9 | 21.4 | 0.89 | 0.32 |
| Le'Veon Bell | PIT | 77.7% | 11.8% | 36.7% | 2.2% | 111.2 | 18.5 | 0.80 | 0.29 |
| Todd Gurley | STL | 65.7% | 6.8% | 34.1% | 3.9% | 210.6 | 16.2 | 0.83 | 0.28 |
| Arian Foster | HOU | 53.4% | 18.1% | 32.3% | 3.3% | 79 | 19.8 | 0.87 | 0.28 |
| Adrian Peterson | MIN | 69.0% | 7.9% | 37.3% | 3.0% | 266.7 | 16.7 | 0.73 | 0.27 |
| Dion Lewis | NE | 29.2% | 18.2% | 21.6% | 4.0% | 122.2 | 17.5 | 1.23 | 0.27 |
| Matt Forte | CHI | 57.3% | 13.6% | 33.2% | 2.5% | 214.7 | 16.5 | 0.78 | 0.26 |
| Mark Ingram | NO | 55.4% | 12.0% | 27.4% | 2.7% | 203.2 | 16.9 | 0.90 | 0.25 |
| Lamar Miller | MIA | 56.4% | 9.7% | 25.7% | 4.0% | 233.9 | 14.6 | 0.93 | 0.24 |
| Doug Martin | TB | 63.4% | 8.2% | 32.7% | 2.1% | 242.3 | 15.1 | 0.73 | 0.24 |
| LeSean McCoy | BUF | 53.2% | 14.1% | 33.1% | 2.0% | 180.7 | 15.1 | 0.72 | 0.24 |
| DeAngelo Williams | PIT | 51.5% | 8.0% | 24.4% | 4.5% | 233.4 | 14.6 | 0.94 | 0.23 |
| Danny Woodhead | SD | 24.7% | 16.0% | 18.5% | 4.4% | 244.1 | 15.3 | 1.20 | 0.22 |
| Tim Hightower | NO | 64.5% | 5.2% | 26.5% | 3.7% | 86.4 | 14.4 | 0.79 | 0.21 |
| Darren McFadden | DAL | 58.6% | 10.0% | 30.1% | 1.0% | 199.7 | 12.5 | 0.68 | 0.21 |
| T.J. Yeldon | JAC | 68.5% | 10.1% | 30.0% | 1.3% | 155.9 | 13.0 | 0.68 | 0.21 |
| Chris Ivory | NYJ | 58.8% | 6.5% | 28.2% | 2.8% | 206.7 | 13.8 | 0.73 | 0.21 |
| Latavius Murray | OAK | 72.2% | 8.7% | 31.7% | 1.9% | 206.8 | 12.9 | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| David Johnson | ARI | 27.7% | 10.1% | 17.5% | 6.6% | 211.8 | 13.2 | 1.16 | 0.20 |
| Joseph Randle | DAL | 49.7% | 5.0% | 23.6% | 4.7% | 74 | 12.3 | 0.86 | 0.20 |
| Lance Dunbar | DAL | 4.9% | 18.1% | 12.0% | 0.0% | 49.2 | 12.3 | 1.70 | 0.20 |
| Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 56.6% | 5.1% | 30.5% | 2.7% | 166.8 | 12.8 | 0.63 | 0.19 |
| Carlos Hyde | SF | 67.4% | 6.5% | 30.7% | 2.3% | 81.3 | 11.6 | 0.63 | 0.19 |
| Frank Gore | IND | 65.7% | 9.4% | 30.2% | 2.2% | 199.4 | 12.5 | 0.63 | 0.19 |
| Charcandrick West | KC | 48.9% | 9.3% | 26.9% | 2.6% | 134.8 | 11.2 | 0.70 | 0.19 |
| Bilal Powell | NYJ | 22.7% | 15.2% | 18.0% | 2.3% | 135.1 | 12.3 | 1.02 | 0.18 |
| DeMarco Murray | PHI | 46.7% | 9.4% | 24.1% | 2.8% | 188.1 | 12.5 | 0.76 | 0.18 |
| Charles Sims | TB | 23.6% | 13.1% | 17.4% | 2.3% | 184 | 11.5 | 1.04 | 0.18 |
| Justin Forsett | BAL | 63.1% | 9.7% | 28.4% | 1.0% | 122.4 | 12.2 | 0.64 | 0.18 |
| Karlos Williams | BUF | 26.6% | 4.4% | 15.3% | 8.4% | 126.3 | 11.5 | 1.18 | 0.18 |
| Giovani Bernard | CIN | 33.0% | 13.1% | 21.9% | 0.9% | 181.2 | 11.3 | 0.82 | 0.18 |
| Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 50.7% | 9.8% | 29.2% | 2.3% | 80.7 | 11.5 | 0.61 | 0.18 |
| Theo Riddick | DET | 12.1% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 2.1% | 181 | 11.3 | 1.27 | 0.18 |
| Jeremy Hill | CIN | 47.8% | 3.8% | 24.1% | 5.0% | 174.3 | 10.9 | 0.72 | 0.17 |
| Mike Gillislee | BUF | 29.5% | 4.8% | 17.0% | 5.6% | 53.6 | 10.7 | 0.99 | 0.17 |
| Thomas Rawls | SEA | 39.2% | 3.0% | 20.4% | 3.2% | 129.6 | 10.8 | 0.82 | 0.17 |
| James Starks | GB | 33.9% | 9.2% | 19.0% | 2.5% | 172.3 | 10.8 | 0.86 | 0.16 |
| Rashad Jennings | NYG | 48.4% | 6.3% | 22.2% | 1.7% | 168.9 | 10.6 | 0.72 | 0.16 |
| Duke Johnson Jr | CLE | 27.4% | 12.2% | 17.1% | 1.1% | 164.3 | 10.3 | 0.92 | 0.16 |
| LeGarrette Blount | NE | 57.4% | 1.5% | 21.8% | 4.1% | 122.6 | 10.2 | 0.71 | 0.16 |
| James White | NE | 7.7% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 122.6 | 10.2 | 1.61 | 0.16 |
| Chris Johnson | ARI | 63.1% | 3.1% | 29.1% | 1.4% | 111.2 | 10.1 | 0.53 | 0.16 |
| Ronnie Hillman | DEN | 50.4% | 5.8% | 22.9% | 2.9% | 163.4 | 10.2 | 0.68 | 0.15 |
| Spencer Ware | KC | 29.4% | 2.3% | 14.5% | 7.7% | 82.8 | 9.2 | 1.06 | 0.15 |
| Jeremy Langford | CHI | 33.7% | 8.6% | 19.8% | 3.7% | 145.6 | 9.7 | 0.77 | 0.15 |
| Shane Vereen | NYG | 15.1% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 158.5 | 9.9 | 1.12 | 0.15 |
| Matt Jones | WAS | 41.3% | 5.5% | 20.6% | 2.4% | 122.4 | 9.4 | 0.72 | 0.15 |
| C.J. Anderson | DEN | 39.4% | 6.3% | 19.0% | 2.7% | 145.3 | 9.7 | 0.77 | 0.15 |
| Eddie Lacy | GB | 45.7% | 5.2% | 21.7% | 2.3% | 144.6 | 9.6 | 0.67 | 0.15 |
| Ryan Mathews | PHI | 30.0% | 5.5% | 15.2% | 5.1% | 130.5 | 10.0 | 0.96 | 0.15 |
| DuJuan Harris | SEA | 38.4% | 11.5% | 24.0% | 0.0% | 37.6 | 9.4 | 0.61 | 0.15 |
| Dexter McCluster | TEN | 21.6% | 10.8% | 14.3% | 2.1% | 93.7 | 8.5 | 0.98 | 0.14 |
| Javorius Allen | BAL | 36.0% | 9.2% | 18.5% | 1.5% | 149.9 | 9.4 | 0.75 | 0.14 |
| Darren Sproles | PHI | 18.7% | 13.3% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 149.5 | 9.3 | 0.90 | 0.14 |
| Shaun Draughn | CLE | 36.5% | 9.9% | 19.1% | 0.9% | 77.9 | 8.7 | 0.70 | 0.13 |
| Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 48.7% | 3.6% | 19.9% | 2.4% | 137.8 | 8.6 | 0.67 | 0.13 |
| Khiry Robinson | NO | 28.2% | 6.0% | 13.9% | 5.3% | 70.5 | 8.8 | 0.93 | 0.13 |
| Antonio Andrews | TEN | 44.1% | 6.0% | 20.1% | 1.7% | 108.4 | 7.7 | 0.63 | 0.13 |
| Joique Bell | DET | 31.3% | 5.3% | 14.0% | 3.4% | 105.7 | 8.1 | 0.90 | 0.13 |
| Melvin Gordon | SD | 53.5% | 6.3% | 23.0% | 0.0% | 116.3 | 8.3 | 0.53 | 0.12 |
| Travaris Cadet | NE | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 47.2 | 7.9 | 1.43 | 0.12 |
| Andre Ellington | ARI | 15.9% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 4.3% | 76.7 | 7.7 | 1.11 | 0.12 |
| Ameer Abdullah | DET | 40.4% | 6.0% | 17.6% | 1.7% | 121.1 | 7.6 | 0.67 | 0.12 |
| Alfred Blue | HOU | 44.3% | 3.0% | 20.2% | 1.5% | 113.7 | 8.1 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| Chris Thompson | WAS | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 2.4% | 92.6 | 7.1 | 1.13 | 0.11 |
| Donald Brown | SD | 40.0% | 5.2% | 17.5% | 1.4% | 45.7 | 7.6 | 0.63 | 0.11 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | IND | 20.9% | 6.0% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 42.9 | 7.2 | 0.95 | 0.11 |
| Alfred Morris | WAS | 47.1% | 2.3% | 21.3% | 0.5% | 97.8 | 6.1 | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| Brandon Bolden | NE | 23.9% | 6.9% | 12.9% | 2.2% | 69.7 | 6.3 | 0.75 | 0.10 |
| Jonathan Grimes | HOU | 14.6% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 83.5 | 6.4 | 0.96 | 0.09 |
| C.J. Spiller | NO | 11.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 81.1 | 6.2 | 1.01 | 0.09 |
| Denard Robinson | JAC | 25.2% | 6.6% | 12.8% | 1.0% | 68.8 | 5.7 | 0.71 | 0.09 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | BAL | 0.5% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 97.4 | 6.1 | 1.68 | 0.09 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | CAR | 22.8% | 2.7% | 12.6% | 2.0% | 35.1 | 5.9 | 0.70 | 0.09 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | CHI | 21.0% | 1.3% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 38.8 | 5.5 | 0.84 | 0.09 |
| Jerick McKinnon | MIN | 11.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 83.4 | 5.2 | 1.03 | 0.09 |
| Branden Oliver | SD | 21.0% | 6.0% | 11.2% | 0.0% | 35 | 5.8 | 0.76 | 0.08 |
| Marcel Reece | OAK | 2.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 78.5 | 5.2 | 1.67 | 0.08 |
| Fred Jackson | SEA | 5.5% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 79.7 | 5.3 | 1.19 | 0.08 |
| Bishop Sankey | TEN | 16.9% | 5.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 59.2 | 4.9 | 0.85 | 0.08 |
| Benny Cunningham | STL | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 65 | 4.6 | 0.89 | 0.08 |
| Mike Tolbert | CAR | 11.8% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 83 | 5.2 | 0.98 | 0.08 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | KC | 3.3% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 46.4 | 4.6 | 1.41 | 0.08 |
| Jonas Gray | MIA | 29.9% | 3.1% | 12.4% | 0.0% | 32.2 | 4.6 | 0.61 | 0.08 |
| Jay Ajayi | MIA | 25.3% | 3.3% | 10.9% | 1.7% | 40.7 | 4.5 | 0.68 | 0.07 |
| Tre Mason | STL | 21.5% | 5.5% | 12.8% | 1.0% | 53.5 | 4.1 | 0.56 | 0.07 |
| Chris Polk | HOU | 22.4% | 4.8% | 12.0% | 1.6% | 72.3 | 4.8 | 0.57 | 0.07 |
| Taiwan Jones | OAK | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 30.8 | 3.9 | 1.28 | 0.06 |
| Tevin Coleman | ATL | 27.6% | 1.9% | 11.9% | 1.0% | 48.6 | 4.1 | 0.51 | 0.06 |
| Damien Williams | MIA | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 47.1 | 3.6 | 1.07 | 0.06 |
| Zach Line | MIN | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 20.0% | 34.5 | 3.5 | 2.30 | 0.06 |
| Jamize Olawale | OAK | 10.4% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 34.4 | 3.4 | 0.98 | 0.05 |
| Robert Turbin | CLE | 21.1% | 2.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | 35.2 | 3.5 | 0.59 | 0.05 |
| Patrick DiMarco | ATL | 0.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 11.1% | 36 | 3.6 | 2.00 | 0.05 |
| Bruce Miller | SF | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 30.9 | 3.1 | 1.55 | 0.05 |
| Matt Asiata | MIN | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 43.4 | 2.9 | 0.85 | 0.05 |
| Terron Ward | ATL | 11.0% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 31.8 | 3.2 | 0.76 | 0.05 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | CAR | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 35.2 | 2.7 | 0.88 | 0.04 |
| Andre Williams | NYG | 21.8% | 0.5% | 8.6% | 1.1% | 33.4 | 2.1 | 0.37 | 0.03 |
Broadly speaking, the numbers above tell us two things: how efficient a player was with his touches (PPO), and how much he was involved in the offense from a fantasy perspective (FPS/16). Prorating to 16 games levels the playing field, so to speak--we can see how much a player was involved in his team's fantasy output over a full season even if he only played 13 games.
There is a bit of a mirage factor here in the numbers, too. A low PPO coupled with a high FPS/16 would indicate a player that relied on volume to score fantasy points, whereas a high PPO with a low FPS/16 could show a player performed well--perhaps overperformed--on relatively limited touches.
Now let's take a closer look at some standouts from the list.
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
| Att. | Yds | TD | Tgt | Rec | Yd | TD | PPR | PPG | FPS/16 | eFPS/16 |
| 71 | 364 | 4 | 30 | 21 | 177 | 1 | 105.1 | 21.0 | 0.35 | 4.77 |
Not that we really needed to highlight just how good Jamaal Charles is, but his advanced stats pretty much tell the story. Another torn ACL has put a drag on his fantasy stock, and owners are rightfully wary of taking him too early. But a healthy Charles is one of the best PPR running backs in the league based on both volume and efficiency.
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
| Att. | Yds | TD | Tgt | Rec | Yd | TD | PPR | PPG | FPS/16 | eFPS/16 |
| 229 | 1,108 | 10 | 26 | 21 | 188 | 0 | 210.6 | 16.2 | 0.28 | 3.89 |
From a bird’s eye view, Todd Gurley was the best fantasy back in the land last season. He missed out on top billing in terms of raw production after missing the first three games of the year while still making his way back from a torn ACL, but he managed to score the fifth-most points and tie for the second-most points per game (PPG) in the league. He managed that in spite of catching just 21 passes by averaging 4.8 yards per carry and scoring 10 touchdowns.
True, Gurley’s production came on the wings of several huge plays, but can we really hold that against a guy who has been favorably compared to Adrian Peterson since coming out of college? Gurley was second in the league in FPS/16 last season. His Rams were dead last in fantasy-points-generated (FPG), too—there is only one direction to go from there. Even if Jeff Fisher’s team is a brutal disappointment in 2016 yet again, Gurley is going to have a massive share of the fantasy scoring in Los Angeles.
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
| Att. | Yds | TD | Tgt | Rec | Yd | TD | PPR | PPG | FPS/16 | eFPS/16 |
| 264 | 1,061 | 11 | 97 | 73 | 578 | 3 | 320.9 | 21.4 | 0.32 | 3.80 |
How is Devonta Freeman routinely going in the middle of the second round in PPR formats? Yes, he left us all with a sour taste in our mouths after averaging an appalling 3.07 YPC over after Week 8, but he was still the top fantasy scorer on the year. More importantly, Freeman was targeted 97 times last season.
Freeman was a workhorse last season, and there is little reason to think that will change in 2016. He got the bulk of the work with or without Tevin Coleman in the lineup thanks to his pass-catching ability. The Falcons have a potent-enough passing game to keep defenses honest, and Freeman takes opposing linebackers’ lunch money in coverage.
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers
| Att. | Yds | TD | Tgt | Rec | Yd | TD | PPR | PPG | FPS/16 | eFPS/16 |
| 115 | 470 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 53 | 0 | 81.3 | 11.6 | 0.19 | 1.71 |
The entire San Francisco offense was a dumpster fire last season, so it might be a little unfair to pick on Carlos Hyde. He was simply awful, though, and there was nothing pretty to unearth in a deeper look at his season.
Chip Kelly has been a boon for perceived fantasy value, though, and Hyde’s ADP has been on the rise as a result.
Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers
| G | Att. | Yds | TD | Tgt | Rec | Yd | TD | PPR | PPG | FPS/16 | eFPS/16 |
| 16 | 97 | 335 | 3 | 107 | 81 | 756 | 6 | 244.1 | 15.3 | 0.22 | 2.84 |
For years Danny Woodhead has been an underrated PPR asset. His pass-catching prowess gives him a high floor to begin with, and the inability of anyone around him to take the reigns as a feature back in San Diego has given him far more volume than anyone expected. But just how good has he been with all those targets?
Yes, he led the league last season, the only running back to crack triple digits in the target category. Yes, he caught 81 of those, six of which wound up in the end zone. In spite of all this, however, Woodhead managed to rank just 12th in standard fantasy scoring last season. When you factor in all the injuries at the position, his finish is even less impressive. He was third in PPR scoring, though, but you all should know by know he is more valuable in that format.
Woodhead ranked 14th at his position in FPS/16, and it’s easy to argue last season was the peak of his usage with Melvin Gordon presumably taking on a bigger role as a sophomore. The trouble with Woodhead is his opportunity percentage--at just 18.5 percent over 16 games, he was easily the least-used running back in the top five scorers in PPR formats. If Gordon takes off, Woodhead's value will plummet.
Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens
| Att. | Yds | TD | Tgt | Rec | Yd | TD | PPR | PPG | FPS/16 | eFPS/16 |
| 151 | 641 | 2 | 41 | 31 | 153 | 0 | 122.4 | 12.2 | 0.18 | 1.66 |
Like in San Francisco, there was nothing to like in the Baltimore offense last season. That includes Justin Forsett, who was disappointing for much of the season and missed six games with injury. He ranked just ahead of Hyde with 0.17 FPS/16, not a good look for a guy who should have had the backfield to himself. Of course, scoring just two touchdowns on 181 touches didn’t help matters.
Forsett’s touchdown rate should regress positively, but will his usage fall in the process? Javorious Allen figures to make some noise in his second year, and Kenneth Dixon has plenty of promise as a rookie. Forsett, meanwhile, is going on 31 and has a checkered injury past. It will take an
