Hey guys and gals, welcome to This Week in Dynasty. This is a new feature this year where we're going to discuss relevant developments from around the league with a dynasty slant. Everything is fair game, from high-level strategy to nitty-gritty player evals. If you have an suggestions for topics you'd like to see covered in this space, or if you'd just like to join the conversation, feel free to let me know on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.
The Big Takeaway
Before every season, fantasy football players discuss, debate, and predict trends for the upcoming season. They'll debate whether the RB position is deep and teams should focus on grabbing WRs early, or whether the RB position is shallow and the RB-RB (or RB-RB-RB) strategy is back in vogue. They'll discuss how far the top QBs are from the rest of the pack, and how deep that pack is, and where quarterbacks should be drafted as a result. Over months of discussion and mock drafts, a consensus will begin to form about which positions should be drafted when.
The truth is that, for the most part, positional value remains relatively stable in redraft. In standard scoring, the top-12 players in season-ending VBD over the last decade have included an average of 2.2 quarterbacks, 6.5 running backs, 2.8 wide receivers, and 0.5 tight ends. This is not to say that there haven't been outliers. In 2011, 5 of the top 12 players were quarterbacks. In 2003 and 2005, none of the top 12 were. 2004 was the only year to see two tight ends in the top 12 of season-ending VBD (Jimmy Graham just missed the cut in 2011 thanks to the explosion of 5,000 yard passers). Still, for the most part, the distribution of top players has been remarkably stable. 6 out of the last 10 seasons featured either 2 or 3 quarterbacks, 6 or 7 running backs, and 2 or 3 wide receivers in the top 12. 9 of the last 10 seasons featured 0 or 1 tight end. While trends within a position can have a big impact on scoring at that position, those trends tend to raise the bottom of the distribution by the same amount as the top, leaving the total value of the position about the same. Over the last two years, Jimmy Graham scored an average of 175 points per season, which was good for about 77 points of VBD per year. From 2005 to 2006, Antonio Gates scored an average of 158 points per season, which was good for about 79 points of VBD per year. From 1997 to 1998, Shannon Sharpe scored an average of 134 points per season, which was good for about 70 points of VBD. The top tight ends are scoring more now, but they aren't becoming significantly more valuable, because replacement tight ends are scoring more, too. True outlier seasons, (such as the years Faulk, Holmes, Alexander, and Tomlinson set the touchdown record, Rob Gronkowski's record-setting 2011 campaign, or any 45+ touchdown season from a quarterback), will always move the needle, but by and large, your ordinary "studs" at any given position will remain pretty consistent from year to year in terms of how much of an advantage they provide. For the most part, this is reflected in redraft strategies, where you'll typically see a comparable number of RBs, WRs, and QBs going in the first couple of rounds from year to year.
In dynasty, however, the calculations change. It's nice to say that top RBs are worth as much this year as they are in pretty much any other year, but dynasty owners aren't just concerned with this year; dynasty owners are concerned with a player's entire career going forward. A top-5 fantasy finish by a 23-year-old wide receiver is dramatically different from a top-5 fantasy finish by a 32-year-old wide receiver. Because of that, while the season-to-season value of a given position holds remarkably steady, the "going forward" outlook of a given position can fluctuate fairly dramatically. No position group demonstrates this concept better than the current crop of dynasty RBs.
Over the last three seasons, all running backs in the league have scored an average of 3761.75 total fantasy points through seven weeks. This year, the league's running backs have combined for 3715.90 fantasy points, or right in the same ballpark as the three-year average. Running back scoring is actually up a bit compared to the first seven weeks of last year. The average AGE of those running backs, on the other hand, has been steadily climbing for years. I have calculated the average age of all running backs to finish in the top 24 of season-ending VBD over the last decade, as well as two weighted averages. The first weights each player based on their order of finish (from 1 to 24), and the second weights each player based on season-ending VBD. I also included the 2013 season so far, although the usual caveats apply- the sample size is still small and there's still plenty of time for things to change. VBD was calculated using standard (i.e. non-PPR) scoring, with a baseline of RB24. Player age was figured based on the player's age as of January 1st following the season. As a result, Jamaal Charles, who is currently 26, will show up in the 2013 data as being 27 because his birthday is December 27th. Methodology behind us, here are the results:
Year | Average age | Weighted by rank | Weighted by VBD |
---|---|---|---|
2003 | 26.1 | 26.0 | 25.9 |
2004 | 27.0 | 26.9 | 27.1 |
2005 | 26.1 | 26.7 | 26.9 |
2006 | 26.6 | 26.1 | 26.0 |
2007 | 25.8 | 25.7 | 25.9 |
2008 | 25.0 | 25.2 | 25.3 |
2009 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.2 |
2010 | 25.1 | 24.7 | 24.7 |
2011 | 26.3 | 26.0 | 25.5 |
2012 | 26.1 | 25.7 | 25.7 |
2013 | 26.5 | 27.0 | 27.1 |
As you can see, the early returns this season are dismal. The average age of top-24 running backs is high, although not extraordinarily so. When we apply some weighting, however, we see that the backs at the more productive end of the spectrum are much older than is typical, and that difference stands in even starker contrast when we see that, as recently as 2010, just the opposite was the case. In the last three years, the average age of the RB responsible for the typical fantasy point has risen by 2.4 years, nearly a 1:1 ratio! This suggests that, as the phenomenal crop of backs in 2010 has aged, very few new young RBs have risen to replace them. Indeed, none of the current top 10 backs entered the league in the last four seasons. By all objective measures, this is a brutally poor group of dynasty RBs. The 2013 rookie class was widely considered the worst group of fantasy rookies in years, with no backs chosen in the first round for the first time in decades. Despite this, there are currently three rookie RBs with under 100 carries who have a serious argument as top-10 overall dynasty RBs right now. In ordinary years, Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy, and Le'Veon Bell would be promising young RB2s. In the 2013 fantasy climate, they're cornerstone players and virtually irreplaceable assets.
So, what does this mean for dynasty owners? For starters, it means the typical dynasty owner is faced with a choice. They can either have old and productive RBs, or they can have young backs with potential. There are no backs that offer both youth and production, although there are a few productive backs (such as LeSean McCoy) who are sort of young, and there are a few young backs (such as the aforementioned Bernard/Lacy/Bell trio) who are sort of productive. There are only five backs right now who are 24 or younger and who have 1500 or more career yards. One of them (Doug Martin) is injured and likely won't play again until next season, after his 25th birthday. Two more (Stevan Ridley and Trent Richardson) are underperforming, mired in a committee situation, and currently rank outside the top 20. A fourth (Alfred Morris), has underperformed a touch but otherwise been pretty solid, but he's sharing the backfield with a touchdown vulture and he takes a serious value hit in PPR leagues. The fifth is Jacquizz Rodgers, who took 38 games and multiple injuries to the starters ahead of him to just barely reach the mark with 1505 career yards. After that, every other back is either old or unknown to one degree or another.
Ultimately, the situation is good news for contenders. It means there are more productive-but-aging backs than at any point in recent history, which should make it easier to acquire one. If you're a rebuilding team, though, the lack of clear young stars is a serious negative. It means if you want that core young star who will still be carrying your team 3-4 years from now, perhaps you need to look outside the ranks of current NFL players. Rebuilding teams should continue looking to improve the ranks of their QBs, WRs, and TEs, where each position features a surplus of young and talented players. Instead of worrying about their RBs, though, rebuilding teams might be better off acquiring future draft picks. After all, we've seen this game before. From 2003 to 2006, the average age of top backs was high and stagnant. A reasonable owner might have believed that this was just the new order of the NFL. Instead, we saw a massive influx of RB talent from 2007 to 2009, with Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and Arian Foster all entering the league in a 3-year span, leading to that ridiculous 2010 season where only one of the top 12 RBs was 26 years or older (Michael Turner at 28).
Similarly, things look bleak right now at the RB position with little hope for help on the horizon, but all it takes is one or two strong drafts for things to turn around in a hurry.
HEARD AROUND THE WATER COOLER
THE EYE TEST
Ellington always makes the first guy miss in space. Ray Rice has received no blame all season but he hasn't done that.
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
Speaking of Alabama RBs, Eddie Lacy has shown more explosion in his few games than Trent or Ingram ever did IMO.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Look at Stacy beat first contact. It has translated from Vandy.
-Josh Norris (@JoshNorris)
After watching Zac Stacy the past few weeks, have to wonder what took the Rams so long to realize he's better than Daryl Richardson.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Tannehill struggling on plays he should make routinely. Early season hits taking effect?
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert...remember the names folks.
-John Kerwin (@JKerwin_NFL)
@JKerwin_NFL Hernandez and Gronk just on different teams
-Murph (@ThatMurph)
50-yd TD for Forte. I used to rip on him a lot in 08-09. Stopped after he got better. Not sure where I'd rank him, but very good RB.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
My breakdown of that Calvin Johnson play: He's big.
-Cian Fahey (@cianaf)
League better look out. Griffin has his wheels back, and his deep ball is going again.
-Adam Harstad (@Adam Harstad)
Andy Dalton's deep ball is as accurate as Mike Leshoure trade rumors
-Joe Horning (@JoeHorning_)
#Dolphins playcalling basically indicates that they don't think either of their RBs is very good.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Dobson is going to be much better with a full offseason. Raw talent is there
-Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine)
Flipped it over to Pats/Jets to see 2 ugly Brady throws. This is the norm, not the exception with him lately.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Myself included, lots of people eating crow on Locker.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Ben Tate is not a massive step down from Arian Foster. A different type of runner and more downhill, but still a good back.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Chad Henne targeted Mike Brown 8 times today. Caught 5 for 120 yards. Welker-esque slot man to note in deep leagues.#jaguars
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Weeden has targeted Gordon on a bunch of passes in scoring position. #Packers have had perfect coverage. Hence, 1-7.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
19-93, 1-6 for Le'Veon Bell, which is what we sort of expected from him as PIT bellcow.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
With Sam Bradford done for season, will be the Zac Stacy show for #Rams rest of the way.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
@evansilva itll be a short show
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
I'm guessing you wouldn't get that much resistance if you said no wide receiver in the NFL is playing better than Vincent Jackson right now
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Justin Hunter with another two deep end zone targets yesterday, neither connected. I may be more interested him as a buy low this offseason
-Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine)
You can take the Greg Schiano out of Josh Freeman, but you can't take the Josh Freeman out of Josh Freeman.
-Revlis Football (@RevlisFootball)
1. Case Keenum was very impressive against the Chiefs. Needs better pocket awareness and quicker diagnosis at snap, but very promising.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Just watched HOU-KC. Kubiak has to stay w/ Keenum. Impressive. Made right reads, good instincts, compsure + accuracy. Kept eyes downfield.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
#Packers committed to run, playing top-2 offense & utilize Eddie Lacy as true every-down RB. Fat Eddie is about to put FF teams on his back.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
THE NUMBERS GAME
10 targets, 6 catches, 71 yards for Mike Floyd to lead the Cardinals. Just not getting the TDs this year.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Tom Brady has one (miracle drive) TD pass in his last 3 games after 54 straight regular-season games with 1+.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Over last three weeks, Roy Helu is averaging 12.3 touches for 69.0 total yards per game. Again, he's earned it. More chances at DEN Week 8.
-Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan)
RG3 joins Michael Vick (who did it twice) as the only players ever with 10 yards per pass and 7.5 YPC to go with 250 pass yards, 75 rush yds
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Miles Austin's last two games: 7 targets, 0 receptions. #Cowboys
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Remember Levine Toilolo? Zero targets today. #Falcons
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Wouldn't have guessed: Tony Romo has 27,485 passing yards, the most in NFL history by a player in his first 100 career starts.
-Sam Farmer (@LATimesfarmer)
Despite playing significantly fewer snaps, Aaron Dobson was still targeted as many times as Julian Edelman/more than Thompkins
During Weeks 1-4, Kenbrell Thompkins averaged 9.5 targets/game. Last 3 games: 5.3
RG3 - First 4 games: 8 designed runs ... Last 2 games: 16 designed runs
Lots of Garcon questions. Targets by week: 11 - 11 - 12 - 7 - 14 - 8 (no, I'm not worried)
Aside of Week 6 when he left early due to injury, Cecil Shorts low for targets this season is 10 (week 1) #Jaguars
-Mike Clay (MikeClayNFL)
No team has had 3 or more wide receivers on the field less than the 49ers (24%) this season. Next closest is 33% (Texans)
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
(lots of 2-receiver sets means great news for Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Anquan Boldin, and Vernon Davis owners going forward. It also means Michael Crabtree has the potential to be huge down the stretch)
Technically, Cam Newton is 35/43 for 446 yards with 4 TDs and 0 INTs the last two weeks, but he's done it with such a fake smile.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Cam Newton is the only QB with back-to-back games over 136.0 passer rating this season.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Terrance Williams has an 85.7% catch rate on 28 targets w/ 15.8 yards per catch. That kind of per play production + catch rate is = goodness
-Joey Cartolano (@PFF_Joey)
Defenders commited 7 pens on Torrey Smith, most in NFL. 3 holding, 2 DPI, 1 Roughness & 1 Horse Collar. 2nd most Dez Bryant (6)
-Pro Football Focus (@PFF)
ALSO OF INTEREST
Think I said this before, but Cole Beasley a sneak dynasty stash. Austin cut in offseason? Cole would be slot candidate in pass-heavy O
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
If you have Z. Stacy you have to feel good about catches & the td. Carries, catches, rz looks = the three legged stool of fantasy relevance
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
-Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins)
(Gotta love a team account with a sense of humor. You taking notes, @Jaguars?)
Email from NYJ to me: Coach Ryan said following the game that he wanted to go with the hot hand. (Powell's) playing time not injury related.
-Dave Richard (@daverichard)
#Packers QB Aaron Rodgers on Jarrett Boykin back in October of 2012: "Will be a big-time player for us at some point." 8-103-1 today.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Manning asked about arm strength: "I throw a lot of wobbly passes. … A lot of wobbly touchdowns too."
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
Use the bye week cover to add Lavon Brazill in deep dynasty leagues. Next man up at WR in Indy & a @MattWaldman favorite
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Updated NFL injury report: Everyone out with everything.
-Chris Burke (@ChrisBurke_SI)
Is CJ Spiller the new Felix Jones? Fumble and health issues this year and getting outplayed by every other RB on his team.
-Ty Miller (@Ty_In_StL)
Jarrett Boykin's ownership on MFL went from 3% to 37% in MFL dynasty leagues last week.
-Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine)
Comparing August dynasty ADP to our recent Mid-Season ADP gives us some big risers/fallers. Pryor up 127 spots from 241 (undrafted) to 114.
Among the RBs, Moreno rising up the boards, going from an ADP of 217 to 81, gaining 137 spots. Bradshaw the biggest loser, going 102 to 241.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
(The ADP data Ryan is referencing should be available for free soon at the always excellent www.dynastyleaguefootball.com)
TRENT RICHARDSON
1) most of the reason to draft TRich in the first place was the volume of touches. The YPC is not that scary to me. But I want volume
Matt Forte's first two years in the league were accompanied by YPC of 3.9 and 3.6. But he had receptions to float you.
Until TRich starts adding in those receptions, he isn't going to be anything other than what he's already been this year.
As of today TRich's per game touches are off a total of 4 per game from where they were last year. That's not going to work.
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)
Genuine question: For all those who are still keeping their T-Rich stock, at what point do you give up?
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Based on these last few carries I am open to the idea that Trent Richardson is blind and just sticks his hand out to see where defenders are
-Rivers McCown (@FO_RiversMcCown)
Marshawn Lynch through 5 games w/Seahawks following trade with Bills: 217 yds, 2 TDs, 2.9 ypc. Let's not bury Trent Richardson yet, folks
-Brian McIntyre (@brian_mcintyre)
JORDAN REED
Jordan Reed Era has begun. RT @MarkMaske: Fred Davis is on the inactive list for the Redskins.
-John Paulsen (@4for4_John)
Reed for real
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Welcome to TE1 territory, Jordan Reed.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Since 1980, Jeremy Shockey has most yards per game by a rookie TE with 59.6. Keith Jackson has most receptions with 5.1.
Jordan Reed now averaging 5.2 catches for 59.6 yards for the season.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Jordan Reed averaging 2.53 yards per route he has run. Only Vernon Davis (2.97) & Jimmy Graham (2.82) have more from TE spot
-Pro Football Focus (@PFF)
Jordan Reed is catching 83.9% of his targets. With Fred Davis inactive, he received 9 targets. Potential PPR monster if he keeps that up
-Joey Cartolano (@PFF_Joey)
ROB GRONKOWSKI
Drew Rosenhaus said, "Rob Gronkowski has now been cleared by all his doctors to play Sunday in the Jets game."
-Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Took me about 20 secs from "Gronk cleared by all doctors" to going to MFL to start him. Don't care how much he plays. He plays, he starts.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
GRONK!
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Gronk break Twitter
-Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine)
Gronk averaged about 1.5 RZ TGTs per game last season WITH Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead, Vereen. Wouldn't be surprised if 20+ ROS.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Gronk Gronk. Gronk Gronk Gronk Gronk. Gronk Gronk.... GRONK
-thestreetfreeagent (@The_Street_FA)
GRONK!
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
(note: no, I didn't accidentally list the same tweet twice…)
Gronk's return good for Tom Brady: since 2010 72.2% when targeting Gronk, 10.2 YPA, 38TDs, 2 INTs all others: 62.5%, 7.4YPA, 79-26
-Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey)
My God does Gronkowski look magnificent #shiny
-Scott Zolak (@scottzolak)
Hernandez and Welker are very good players, but they really aren't anywhere close to the force of a healthy Gronk...all time great
-Matt Williamson (@WilliamsonNFL)
Boy, Gronk is drawing double coverage all over the place.
-Christopher Price (@cpriceNFL)
Rob Gronkowski now up to 98 receiving yards. Coming into today, Patriots TE's had accounted for just 96 receiving yards on the season.
-Field Yates (@FieldYates)
Rob Gronkowski was targeted 17 times today
-Gridiron Experts (@GridironExperts)
Dr. Jene said he would trade Graham for Gronk RT @AdamRonis Adam Schefter said it is uncertain whether TE Jimmy Graham will play in Week 8.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
(note: Sigmund and Dr. Jene are discussing redraft value, here.)
SECOND THOUGHTS
Anyone who has been following me for a while knows that I'm a huge Jordan Reed fan. Obviously, Sunday's game was very exciting, and Jordan Reed has continued his meteoric rise up the dynasty rankings (he currently sits as my 6th-ranked TE). After all of this time spent fanning the flames, I would like to take a moment to pump the brakes a bit on expectations for 2013. Since 2007, 13 rookies have gone for 130 receiving yards in a single game (excluding Reed and Terrance Williams from this season, as well as Jahvid Best, who got injured and missed most of the season). Those 13 rookies averaged just 39.4 yards per game receiving outside of their big games. Only two of the rookies (Eddie Royal and Dwayne Bowe) managed to top 46 yards per game outside of their big game. Jordan Reed is on a record-setting pace right now. His efficiency numbers are almost certainly unsustainable. Reed has undoubtedly earned himself a larger role going forward, but he's still a rookie, and his per-target (and per-snap) production will likely decline to offset. I would feel comfortable with him as a low-end TE1 in redraft leagues, but not much more than that. His long-term prospects, on the other hand, are phenomenal.
What a difference a week makes! A few weeks ago, the general consensus was that Jimmy Graham was worth substantially more than Rob Gronkowski in dynasty leagues. Now, Graham is battling his own injury concerns, and Gronkowski is back on the field, and our own Dr. Jene Bramel believes that Gronkowski is already the more valuable tight end in redraft leagues, and 2.5 years younger, to boot. This is always the danger of focusing on the short term when applying player discounts. I'm sure at the time, it made sense to have Gronkowski so far behind Graham in value- Graham was on a record tear and Gronk's return was nowhere in sight. As the season unfolds, those perfectly good reasons are going to become harder and harder to remember. Don't get me wrong, Jimmy Graham is still absolutely fantastic and a dominant player in his own right, I just think that, by the end of the season, several Graham owners are going to wish they had sold him for Gronkowski and a significant extra piece when they had the chance...
Speaking of short-sighted discounts, Sam Bradford was having a very strong season prior to his injury. His yards per attempt were still pretty miserable, although he wasn't getting much help from his supporting cast on offense. Tavon Austin, in particular, had been brutal. Bradford was busy setting career highs in completion percentage, yards per game, and quarterback rating, though, and he had accounted for every single one of St. Louis' offensive touchdowns to this point. A torn ACL probably drops Sam Bradford's price from low to laughably low, but coach Jeff Fisher has already committed to him as the starter again in 2014, and Bradford might be a solid QB2-type on a rebuilding team, or a very strong QB3 on any team in any format.
Doug Martin's season wasn't going anywhere near as well as Sam Bradford's. His yards per attempt, yards per reception, and yards from scrimmage had all cratered after a tremendous rookie season, and his touchdown total stood at 1. Martin's performance this year highlights the perils of taking a rookie's numbers and assuming it is fait accompli that he improves on them in year 2. Career years are always hard to repeat, whether they come in a player's first season or his last. With that said, this week's Takeaway should have done a pretty good job at documenting the devastation that is the RB position in dynasty leagues, and Doug Martin remains a very valuable fantasy piece as one of the few proven, productive, and young workhorses the NFL has to offer.
I'm sure you all get it by now- player gets injured, I recommend buying him, repeat- so let's take a quick break from the formula. I like buying injured players because, due to the magic of hyperbolic discounting, their owners probably overrate the short-term consequences and underrate the long-term rewards of owning that player. We're human, that's simply how our minds work. With a player like Reggie Wayne, however, there isn't much in terms of long-term rewards. Reggie Wayne is going to be 36 next year. The history of even borderline fantasy-viable 36-year-old WRs is a short one (basically just 10 names long). The list of 36-year-old WRs who gave WR2 production or better is just three names long (Jerry Rice, Jimmy Smith, and Joey Galloway). The potential reward for Reggie Wayne is that there's a small-but-not-insignificant chance that he'll outperform some generic rookies or random journeymen by a handful of points next year. Even if the cost of that payout is a 3rd round rookie pick and a roster spot, that cost is too high. This is one of the rare instances where I just don't see enough upside to bother making an offer on an injured star.
Like Icarus before him, Nick Foles flew too close to the sun, melted his wings, and fell crashing back to earth. Chip Kelly has been so good at getting offensive production out of a hodgepodge of pieces that he inhereted that it's easy to forget that he's getting offensive production out of a hodgepodge of pieces that he inhereted. In the long term, I want to own as much stock as possible in starters in the Philadelphia Eagles system, but it might take a couple of years (and a couple more drafts at the controls) for Chip Kelly to get the guys he really wants in place. In the meantime, I'm a fan of buying tickets in that lottery (such as Foles, Desean, and Vick) in the hopes that they hit big. In the short term, we'll probably see both Vick and Foles get a couple more chances, and if we're lucky one of them might finally put the competition to bed and earn an extended commitment as a starter. At the same time, we have to be wary of the fact that the long-term answer at the position may not yet be on the roster.
Best of luck to everyone in their Week 8 games. I'll see you back here next week with plenty of NFL action to break down and plenty of dynasty implications to discuss!