Last week I used some lineups with a Jacksonville QB-REC stack (some with Bortles-Robinson, some with Bortles-Hurns), as I thought the Patriots-Jaguars matchup could be a high-scoring affair. Well, it was a high-scoring affair, but most of the scoring came from the Patriots side of things. Nonetheless, with Bortles (4,700), Hurns ($2,400) and Robinson ($4,900) all attractively priced again this week, I'm tempted to give it another shot. Am I nuts?
Maurile Tremblay: I don't think that's nuts at all. Avoid recency bias. The Bortles-Hurns combination wasn't even all that bad last week, but it's not about last week anyway. It's about this week, and it's about production in comparison to price. Bortles is a few thousand dollars cheaper than most of the other quarterbacks worth considering, Robinson seems comfortably underpriced, and Hurns, given his his upside potential, is a steal. I like the Jacksonville stack in tournaments quite a bit, and I think the value is sufficient to consider in a cash game as well.
Alex Miglio: Well, it wasn't too bad if you stacked Bortles and Hurns, who got loose on a big play. My concern this week is whether this will be a high-scoring affair at all -- Andrew Luck is very much questionable for this game, and the Colts haven't exactly been playing lights out this season. Robinson is probably going to draw Vontae Davis' coverage to boot, so I would gravitate towards Hurns in this situation. It's definitely a GPP strategy to start any of these guys, let alone stack.
Andrew Garda: It’s a new week and a different matchup – a more favorable one at that – so no. As much as we have to keep an eye on production trends (targets, completion percentages, carries) one bad game can’t set you off the feed – especially as, again, this is a better matchup.
And as Maurile mentions, it’s about those dollar bills. How does the production upside compare with the price. This might be a more interesting GPP stack, as you’re looking for lower percentage ownership anyway.
The NFL Touchdown GPP features a top-heavy payout structure, which makes finding good stacks particularly important. Whether or not you like the Jacksonville stacks, what are some other stacks you particularly like this week based on FantasyScore's pricing?
MT: Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb offer tremendous production, as do Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. But a pair that offers decent production at an excellent price is Cam Newton and Ted Ginn. Ginn is obviously a risk, but he's become a decent target for Newton, and he has the speed to make a big play at any time. As with the Jacksonville group, I like both the upside potential (for tournaments) and the value (for cash games) with the Carolina Connection. Cam Newton and Greg Olsen also offer a lot of potential scoring, but Olsen is relatively more expensive at FantasyScore than he is at a number of other sites, so I'll stick with Newton-Ginn and FantasyScore.
AM: I love the Derek Carr ($6,500) and Amari Cooper ($6,300) stack just about anywhere, but it's particularly nice here. I expect big things from the duo this week against Chicago. It might be more expensive, but Aaron Rodgers ($8,900) and Randall Cobb ($7,300) is one of the safest you could use this weekend. On the flip side of that game, Colin Kaepernick ($6,200) and Torrey Smith ($4,500) might provide some garbage time fireworks at a cheap price.
AG: I really like stacking Derek Carr and Amari Cooper this week. They’ve been productive anyway, but against the Chicago Bears, they could be huge. I back the Green Bay coupling Maurile mentions as well.
FantasyScore's defensive scoring creates less separation between the top and bottom defenses in many cases -- for example, a shutout is worth only five points (as opposed to ten at many sites), so the Seahawks D scored only 13 points against the Bears. The scoring is more heavily weighted toward defensive scores (the Cardinals scored 25, for example), which are harder to predict. Is there a way for DFS players to use this situation to their advantage?
MT: I'm less likely to pay up for a top defense at FantasyScore than I am at other sites. At FantasyScore, there are a lot of decent options for $1,500 or less (this week they include Oakland, Washington, Atlanta, Chicago) and in FantasyScore's scoring system, you're not giving up all that many expected fantasy points by going with one of them instead of, say, the Seahawks at $3,300.
AM: I almost never look to use a defense based on points allowed these days to begin with. It's all about turnover potential with some special teams mixed in. That's why Seattle's defense has become so attractive -- they may not be shutting anyone out, but Tyler Lockett really provides a boost. That said, any defensive or special teams touchdowns are unpredictable, so I tend to stay in the middle of the pack when it comes to picking a defense here.
AG: I approach this just like I do many of my year-long leagues—who is generating turnovers and big plays? A lot of people will not look at the rules on the defense and will just spend a higher price because they ‘know’ Seattle (in the example) is ‘good’ and will shut down the opposition. But they have zero interceptions.
Meanwhile the Eagles have five interceptions and are just $2200 over the Seahawks at $3300.
MT: This is a good point, but I think interceptions usually have more to do with the offense than with the defense (although of course it's a combination). If I'm projecting interceptions this week, I care more about trends with Kirk Cousins and Matt Stafford than I do about trends with the Eagles or Seahawks defenses.
AG: Well it's no bigger a question mark than a kick or punt return, and personally more reliable than either save in *very* special cases.
The Jets, for example, are an opportunistic defense. Sure Andrew Luck and Josh McCown/Johnny Manziel are a part of that success the first two weeks, but you have to have the players in place to do that, which the Jets do.
Who are some of the players that you expect to build multiple lineups around this week at FantasyScore?
MT: At quarterback, Cam Newton and David Carr are both good values at $6,300. I love Karlos Williams at $5,400, and I expect the rest of the world to invest in him as well. With the savings I get from rostering Williams at one RB spot, I can afford to pay up for Jamaal Charles ($8,100) or Matt Forte ($7,900) at the other. I think Keenan Allen is an excellent mid-range value play at $6,700, and I expect Ted Ginn to be my standard punt play at $2,000.
AG: I mentioned the Carr/Cooper stack and I will invest heavily in it. I like Charles Clay ($2900) at tight end and Percy Harvin at $3100 with Sammy Watkins out and facing a banged up Giants secondary and defense.
