On a ‘smaller’ site like FantasyScore, do you change your approach – for example adding more to your GPP play or more to your cash play? What are the benefits and risks to changing your gameplan site to site?
Chad Parsons: I focus a lot more on overlay games on the smaller sites. I am less familiar with the salary structure and games in general, therefore, I want my investment to have a reduced vig and more bang for my buck. Also, with more of my bankroll going towards the major DFS sites, my preparation time mirrors the sentiment. In general, I will only have 1-2 unique lineups for the smaller sites and enter at most 2-3 contests with each roster. Also, I lean more towards GPP games and join them in the closing minutes to ensure a known overlay contest.
Maurile Tremblay: There are a few advantages to playing on smaller sites. First, it is sometimes easier to find overlays. And second, the competition by and large seems a bit weaker. I don't really change my overall approach -- I'm looking for overlays and hoping for less difficult games at any site I play at -- but they do seem easier to find at smaller sites.
Jene Bramel: I think you have to change your approach a little bit. You simply can't find as much cash game volume on a smaller site. Unless you're willing to use just one GPP lineup or target only smaller GPPs, your cash/GPP ratio will skew toward GPPs. Whether you take account for that in your overall weekly bankroll across all sites is another question. Conventional wisdom here is that the big name fantasy players won't bother with a smaller site due to the lack of action overall. That works in your favor in both cash games and GPPs with lighter competition and potential for overlay.
Andrew Garda: I cannot echo Chad and Maurile enough - look for overlays. It's clear that chasing overlays at the bigger sites is a non-starter - especially the first two weeks of this season. So find ones on the smaller sites like this one. There's also a patience factor - especially with cash games. The prize packages aren't as high (generally speaking) so your growth isn't as big. You have to be patient though and not be rash with your money because you can have a bad week here as much as anywhere else.
Alex Miglio: When I play less, I tend to create mostly cash lineups and use them in GPPs. There isn't as much action at FantasyScore, so I like to consolidate as much as I can. Chasing overlays is a far easier task, as others have mentioned.
How much do you alter strategy based on one week? For example, Adrian Peterson clearly looked uncomfortable taking the ball out of the shotgun, and the offensive line is a mess. How much do you drop him or another ‘stud’ who came out of the blocks slow?
CP: Each player is on a case by case basis. For Peterson, he is not generally a target player in DFS because the Vikings are not a dynamic offense and Peterson is not a dominant three-down player. I will side with pass-catchers at running back or those on stronger offenses generally at running back. I love playing the regression game as I feel salaries are adjusted too much from week to week and matchups are a big part of DFS success. Once the seasonal matchup data accrues 4-5 weeks worth of metrics, playing the matchups becomes far easier. Week 2, however, we are still finding out whether the player/offense or a stingy matchup was more impactful regarding Week 1 results.
MT: Some of my lineups for Week 2 look like they came from Week 1's all-bust team. I try not to overreact to a single week. It's a long season, and even total studs like Odell Beckham have bad fantasy games every once in a while. Some of the players who failed to live up to expectations last week, but who I think are still attractively priced at FantasyScore, include Greg Olsen, Allen Robinson, Justin Forsett, and C.J. Anderson. Some of the cheap quarterbacks like Jameis Winston and Blake Bortles are also priced low enough that I'll take some shots with them this week. Their poor performances in Week 1 are cause for concern, but a low enough salary can make them worth the risk.
Adrian Peterson, by contrast, I won't play this week. Like the other guys I mentioned, his poor performance in Week 1 is cause for concern -- but he's still the third-most expensive running back at FantasyScore, so he doesn't present an attractive value in my opinion.
JB: Your strategy should never waver. You're looking to put together a high floor lineup in cash games and a high ceiling lineup in GPPs. However, the players capable of fitting that profile will frequently change from week to week. Even studs will face matchups where it's less likely they'll meet value at their salary in any given week. I take any matchup issues or recent trends (positive and negative) into account before generating my core player list.
AG: Exactly what has already been said here, one week is not enough to make a major change and frankly, two weeks isn't either. Plus, keep in mind that each player and situation is unique - the reasons Adrian Peterson struggled aren't the same as the reasons LeSean McCoy struggled. Don't just look at the stats and sigh, dig into why they are what they are.
So I don't freak out from a strategy standpoint or a player management standpoint and neither should you.
AM: It really depends on pricing. In the Adrian Peterson example, I am absolutely fading him until he figures things out in that offense or his price drops to something far more palatable. For most guys, though, that won't matter. For example, Greg Olsen had a horrible Week 1, but I am putting him in several lineups because his price went down and he has a far better matchup. One week's performance can be aberrant, something you can exploit if other players are gunshy.
What position are you looking at to save money with value picks this week? What players are you targeting?
CP: There is a wide range of salaries on defense at FantasyScore. As a result, I mine the best matchups for cheap. For example, the bottom defenses are only 36% the cost of the top option. With the unpredictability of the position as a whole and dependency on a return touchdown, I will save my salary for other more predictable positions.
MT: I like Chad's thoughts on defenses here. I think cheap defenses make good cash-game plays this week.
In GPPs, I like taking cheap RBs and WRs with big-play ability. Darren Sproles and Bilal Powell fit into that category for me at FantasyScore, at just $3,700 and $2,400 respectively. Ted Ginn Jr is in that category at WR at just $2,000. By taking a shot at just one of those guys, it frees up a lot of cap space that can be used at other positions. (Don't take more than one flyer like that on the same roster, though. You have to get lucky to hit once. To hit twice requires more luck than most of us have.)
AG: While I get what Chad is saying about Vontae Davis and Brandon Marshall this week, I think the Jets come in with less dedication to the run (The Bills were totally happy to run the ball last week - with 36 runs compared to 19 passes. While some of that was Tyrod Taylor force out of the pocket, many of the quarterback runs were called plays (Taylor ran 9 times). I don't think the Jets lean that hard on the run, and they will throw more, forcing the Colts defense to spread out more.
I don't think Marshall is a fabulous play because: Jets passing offense, but I am not as hesitant to use him based on last week given the much different gameplan I think the Jets will utilize. I think Marshall is a bigger problem for Davis than Watkins was, though Watkins is a much more naturally talented player.
I like the Wright Brothers - Jarius and Kendall (who are not related but you all know how far I'll go for a joke). I think Jarius Wright could see a lot of quick slant work out of the slot with the offensive line a trash-heap the way it is. It might be the only way to keep Teddy Bridgewater from dying under this Lions pass rush.
Kendall Wright faces a tougher matchup this week in Cleveland but not so much so that I would avoid him. I don't expect a 101-yard, 1-touchdown game from him this week, but he should put up some solid numbers and both he ($3,600) and Jarius ($2,000) are pretty cheap.
AM: Definitely the running back position. Carlos Hyde is relatively cheap ($5,700) everywhere because he played on Monday night, and he is a chalk play. Doug Martin was barely used in the second half of a blowout last week, keeping his price down ($4,600) in another good matchup. Danny Woodhead is just $4,600 despite a big week and San Diego's obvious intent to utilize him inside the red zone. Chris Johnson is a nice GPP shot at $4,000 with Andre Ellington likely out. There is plenty of value to be had at the position.
What players – high value or low – look like bad ideas this week which owners should avoid?
CP: I'll avoid Brandon Marshall in Week 2. Vontae Davis shut out Sammy Watkins last week. It is worth noting Watkins did beat Davis on a deep sideline route, a likely touchdown, but Tyrod Taylor overthrew Watkins as a rare opportunity against the stud cornerback.
MT: Tom Brady looked fantastic last week -- but his $8,400 price tag will cause me to avoid him this week. Andrew Luck is just $100 more at $8,500. I'll stay away from Melvin Gordon as well. He played well last week, but he doesn't get enough touches to justify his $6,00 salary, and the Chargers offensive line is already banged up. James Jones is also $6,000, and I think also overpriced.
AG: I'm worried about Andrew Luck. I'm not fading him this week, but he looked off in Week 1. He should rebound against the Jets but that defense is no pushover. Just keep it in mind. Again, I'm worried not fading him.
Who am I fading on? Adrian Peterson at $7,800. He'll rebound but not only was he shaky in the shotgun but that offensive line is awful.
Someone will look at Percy Harvin's Week 1 numbers and fall in love but I won't touch him. I can't help but believe Rex Ryan gets Sammy Watkins more involved this week and Harvin falls by the wayside. The $3,300 price point is attractive but I don't trust it.
AM: I am fading Marcus Mariota this week. His ownership percentage is probably going to spike after his Week 1 supernova, and I don't trust his output based on the abject failure of that Tampa Bay defense last week. It's also wise to avoid injured guys like LeSean McCoy. They might have good games, but there are plenty of less risky options.
