FanDuel GPP Domination - Week 14

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For those of you who are new to Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS), GPPs are "Guaranteed Prize Pool" Tournaments with larger, sometimes very large prize amounts. FanDuel is one of the biggest sites in DFS and offers some of the biggest prizes in the industry. The goal of this article is to guide you towards some players that could help you take home that big prize. Footballguys offers a ton of resources to help you build that winning lineup, and this is just one of the many - but I hope that you will find it a valuable resource and check this article out on a regular basis.

Before we talk about the players for this week, we cannot completely ignore cash game plays. Typically a "GPP player" for the week is one that can score big or score terribly - the classic "boom or bust" player. A wide receiver that can catch two deep balls for two scores can get you 30+ points - or he might wind up with nada. Chasing 1-3 big plays can win you a tournament, but filling out a roster completely with these types of options will likely leave you well short of first place. That is why you cannot ignore the cash game plays each week as well, as combining the two groups is what usually leads to those big victories in GPP contests. So, expect some mention of players who are cash game plays each week, as well as some players that could be considered for both GPP and cash games.

Note - this article is not intended to provide a fully exhaustive list of every possible player. That would be an immensely long group of players. These are just some of the best options I see for GPPs this week when considering value, price, upside, and matchups.

Second note - Keep in mind the multiplier target(s) you want to hit for both cash and GPP / tournaments on FanDuel. In general, you are looking for 2x in cash (twice the cost of the player in $1,000 increments) and 3x in GPP. That means a player that costs $6,000 should produce 12 or more points in cash and 18 or more in GPPs.

GENERAL THOUGHTS ON WEEK 14

To help you out each week, I will give you some general thoughts as we progress through the season (you can also find more on the weekly Power Grid show (link to be updated Friday - available on the DFS home page) - be sure to watch and subscribe!). For this week, there are lots of options again, but many of the decisions will hinge upon scratches that will happen this weekend, so expect some updates here on Saturday.

Week 14 looks very interesting to me, both from a lineup construction viewpoint and also due to both injuries and weather.  That’s three major things to consider, so let’s talk about them one at a time.

First, we have weather concerns all across the eastern part of the United States.  Wind and snow could impact games in Cleveland and Buffalo, and there is also a chance that a few other games (such as Dallas-Giants) may be impacted.  The most concerning element is wind, as that is the most impactful for the passing and kicking games.  Snow is not as big of a deal as some may make it, as it actually tends to help the offense.  Receivers know where they are going, while defenses must react – a bigger challenge on a slippery surface.  Lastly, and not to be minimized, dome teams that are on the road in bad conditions in December tend to struggle.  As always, keep an eye out for both injury and weather updates for Sunday, and also monitor the Vegas lines for any movement. As Danny Tuccitto pointed out in our staff (non-DFS) Roundtable:

Tuccitto: The one situation you want to avoid during the fantasy playoffs — if you can — is when a quarterback or wide receiver on a dome team is playing on the road in temperatures near or below freezing. It's a combination of two effects, both identified in studies by Brian Burke. First, dome visitors pass the ball less efficiently the colder it gets. Second, dome teams lose more often the colder it gets. 

As mentioned before, keep an eye on Las Vegas for Sunday morning.  If the Over/Under totals start to drop, expect adverse weather conditions for passing and kicking games in those contests.

Next comes injuries.  While many fantasy players focus on the skill positions and the injuries there (and there are some key ones this week), there are also important injuries that happen to the rest of NFL teams that can have an even bigger impact.  Offensive lines, defensive backs and linebackers all matter, for example, and the ripple effect can elevate the value of the opposition.  Be sure to look all over Footballguys for all the injuries and their impacts, which can be quite significant.

Last and most important is lineup construction.  I see a few different ways to build lineups this week, and it hinges on a few key decisions.  It appears to me that most teams will spend about the same amount at quarterback and their first running back (along with kicker and defense), so the decisions that will most impact the salary allocation across the rest of the roster are RB2 and tight end.  There are options to pay up or down (or in the middle) for both spots, which then impacts which wide receivers are targeted.  This actually matters less for GPPs as the focus for the best tournament rosters typically hinges upon picking the right stacks of QB-WR, QB-TE and/or RB/Defense.  Whittling down your player pool to players that are capable of hitting 3x or get two touchdowns and using those players to fill in around a stack or two (or a game stack) can lead to putting all the pieces together just right.  Similar to a game of Tetris, picking the right combination of pieces and games to stack is one of the best approaches for optimizing a GPP roster. 

With all this in mind, I am going to try and whittle down the player list some to help, but roster construction should also lean towards building around stacks and game scripts that make sense to you this week.  For example, I love the Kansas City – Oakland matchup, and this will be a highly targeted game for DFS players.  The key here in larger GPPs is to look for lesser-owned players in the games you like and stack around those matchups, such as Derek Carr, Michael Crabtree and Jared Cook instead of Alex Smith, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.  All of the Oakland pieces will be on fewer rosters, so that is a great way to play a game you like and also get more uniqueness in your lineup. 

Before I go on, other games of interest I see for stacking are Green Bay – Cleveland (weather permitting), Tampa Bay – Detroit and even Houston – San Francisco.  More of my thoughts are all over the site and on the Power Grid, so be sure to read as much content as you can from myself and the rest of the staff to help you build the best GPP lineups to win something big this week.

Let’s start to dig in to the players for Week 14.  Here we go: 

Here are a few general references I will be using as the season progresses:

Footballguys' DFS Week 14 Page

Vegas Value Chart

Interactive Value Chart

Projecting Ownership

Normalized Strength of Schedule (NSOS)

For the Win

Please note that if a player isn't mentioned in the write-ups but is in the table, it does not mean that I like the player more in the write-ups. The discussion sections are to add more detail, support, and clarity for those players mentioned, but all of the picks in the tables are viable options if they are ranked.

Now, without further ado, here are the players I like the most this week.

QUARTERBACKS

CHALK TALK: This looks like a rather cut and dry choice this week. Some will call it chasing points, but Alex Smith coming off a great performance against the Jets heading home to face the Raiders is a perfect recipe for cash game value.  Smith has two strong receivers in Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to rely on, and Smith can scramble for 40+ yards to raise his floor.  His ownership will be high, but he is worth it in all formats.

The only other guy I have in cash game consideration is Philip Rivers.  He is red hot, has three receivers (Hunter Henry, Melvin Gordon and ultra-hot Keenan Allen) and is a home favorite against Washington.  I have no issue using him and expecting at least 2x on his salary.  Given the outlook for the Chargers, Rivers is also in play for tournaments.

GPP:  As with most weeks, there are a lot of options this week.  The good news with so many options is that most choices will have under 10% ownership for certain.  The goal here again is to find a 3x quarterback, so given that most passers are going to cost at least $7,500, that means 22.5 points or more.  That screams “find three touchdown upside” for a quarterback to really consider him as a viable option.  All of the guys I listed in the chart above have that upside, but my top option is Derek Carr.  Car had over 400 yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs the first time they met, and even though Amari Cooper is likely out this time, Carr has similar upside.  The risk here is that the Chiefs game was the only time Carr broke 22 points all season on FanDuel, but his floor feels like 2x so he offers a solid floor with the upside.

According to Steve Buzzard’s projections for ownership, several other players at lower ownership (5% or less) all have reasonable cases for a 300-yard and/or three touchdown performance on Sunday.  A game stack for Houston and San Francisco could be in play with two defenses that have struggled against the pass, yielding Top 10 opposing quarterback ratings this season.   That puts both Jimmy Garoppolo and even Tom Savage in play, but I strongly prefer Garoppolo.  He led the 49ers on five scoring drives last week and nearly had 300 yards (seven short), which puts him just off the radar enough for many to skip over him.  Do not be surprised at a 300-yard, two score performance where pushes for that 3x threshold against the Texans. 

The other game I like quite a bit for a shootout is Detroit at Tampa Bay.  Detroit is second worst against quarterbacks over the past five weeks – or if you like Jameis Winston, he has the second best matchup.  As long as Matthew Stafford (hand) continues on the path to starting, this could be a high scoring affair for both teams where each tops 24 points.  These former divisional rivals (yeah, I’m old) have not met since 2014, but the weak pass defenses for both set up a great game stack.

While many of the other quarterbacks are flyers for GPPs, I should point out that if weather cooperates between the Browns and Packers, that game could also be high scoring.  Josh Gordon is the DFS poster boy for the week, as Green Bay’s secondary is one of the worst, but Cleveland’s weakness is also through the air.  That brings two cheaper options in play with DeShone Kizer and also Brett Hundley in a game that Green Bay desperately wants to win as Aaron Rodgers could be ready as soon as next week.

RUNNING BACKS

CHALK TALK: Two options dominate the chalk talk this week – two studs or one stud and one cheap starter.  The most common cheap starter is going to be Giovani Bernard, assuming Joe Mixon is sidelined on Sunday.  That gives a lot of salary relief by using a starter under $6,000 at your RB2 spot. 

All of the expensive running backs seem like solid RB1 choices (no, not Kareem Hunt).  Both Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley are in favorable game scripts, although Gordon gets the better of Gurley at both price ($100) and touches of late.  Gordon and the Chargers are also bigger home favorites, so that makes me lean towards him over Gurley.  Neither of them are my top RB1 – that is reserved for LeSean McCoy.  Buffalo will take on the dome-less Colts in wintry New York, where cold winds and probable snow await Indianapolis.  Look for the Bills to rely on McCoy early and often in this contest and I would not be surprised at all to see McCoy in the end zone twice on Sunday. 

Two other cash viable backs this week are Lamar Miller of the Texans and Mike Davis for Seattle.  Houston will be cobbling their passing game together after DeAndre Hopkins, while the matchup is somewhat favorable for Miller.  What helps him more is his 21 touches a game over the past three weeks and relatively no one else healthy to push him for those chances.  Mike Davis is the pivot away from Giovani Bernard (or the creative way to really save at both running back spots).  Jacksonville is very strong against the pass but their run game has been soft most of the season (4.5 YPC against, over 115 yards per game).  Seattle needs someone else besides Russell Wilson to rush the ball, and also to act as a short pass receiver, and Davis is very solid at doing both.  Davis had over 100 yards on 20 touches against the Eagles last week, and if he is able to punch it into the end zone with similar numbers he will certainly hit GPP value.

GPP:  I will go into a few of the additional guys on my chart above, but I will say this – I would much rather build a FanDuel lineup with the cash/GPP viable options this week.  GPP plays are much more “throwing a dart” category than in other weeks as the matchups are far less favorable.  Jordan Howard looks good on paper against Cincinnati, but Howard has been flat of late and completely bottomed out against the 49ers in a better matchup last week.  Jamaal Williams could be in a good spot in Cleveland, but he may also get pushed by Aaron Jones for carries.  Duke Johnson Jr is the second-best playmaker for the Browns, but they may not have enough production to go around.

Two players that I will consider a little more are Marshawn Lynch and Latavius Murray.  Both have been solid of late with Lynch over 100 yards combined and a touchdown in both of his last two games, and Murray finding the end zone four times over the past four weeks.  Neither are “lock and load” plays, but if the roster construction fits using them, they offer GPP potential as the final piece of the puzzle.

WIDE RECEIVERS

CHALK TALK: A little secret as to how I write this article – I tend to jump from section to section.  After writing up the quarterbacks (and it was a long list), I find another long list of wide receivers for Week 14.  I do think that the chalk / cash list is shorter than the GPP list (as expected), since I am looking for high floor and high target options.  That bubbles up players like Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins towards the top of the chart, along with Josh Gordon and Michael Crabtree.  I expect all four of these receivers to see at least 10 targets each and have a strong (60% or better) chance at finding the end zone this week.

A few others I like at less expense are Marvin Jones against a terrible Tampa Bay secondary, Cooper Kupp (31 targets the last four games) and Larry Fitzgerald (9-10 catches in three of past four contests).  All are cash viable with a touchdown possibility to push them into the realm of 3x / GPP values.

GPP:  Two players I like for GPPs only quite a bit are Tyreek Hill and Josh Reynolds.  Reynolds is playing a ton of snaps (103 the past two games) and has six targets in each contest, with near misses at pay dirt in both games.  Hill has elite speed and quickness which creates huge problems for Oakland’s defense.  Back in Week 7, Hill had a 6-125-1 day on eight targets.  Given his speed and ability to return kicks, his upside is always there (as is the GPP possibility to stack him with a defense). 

As mentioned earlier, I am a fan of the Houston – San Francisco game stack.  DeAndre Hopkins is a stud, but Will Fuller is going to give it a go to come back this week despite two broken ribs.  Fuller has elite speed and is a threat to score on every target he sees.  It is risky, but he offers GPP upside at just $5,400 this week.  I also like Marquise Goodwin, who was a perfect 8 for 8 for 99 yards last week against Chicago.  The Goodwin-Garoppolo stack does not exactly roll of the tongue, but this very low owned couplet has strong upside, and running it back with Hopkins makes a lot of sense this week.

Lastly, I cannot overstate the value of Josh Gordon this week.  He is viable in all formats and is the #1 WR overall IF weather holds up for Cleveland.  Snow is a factor, but winds matter more.  As long as they are under 20 mph, I am using Gordon.  I will also consider two cheap wideouts for the Packers as Jason McCourty should shadow Davante Adams.  That brings both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb in as solid plays at very low ownership for a game stack.

TIGHT ENDS

CHALK TALK: There are three different approaches for tight ends this week – pay up (Travis Kelce), pay down (Stephen Anderson) or pay a medium price.  All three are viable options, but it depends on how you are building the rest of your roster to really decide which is the best way to go.  For a chalk middle option, I greatly prefer Hunter Henry and his 19 targets the past three weeks.  Philip Rivers is red hot and Henry is getting more and more involved.  The Chargers are home favorites and projected to score plenty of points, so he feels like the safest middle option.  Travis Kelce is always in play given how prolific he has been all year, but against Oakland he is certainly an elite option.  The debate comes in around Stephen Anderson (just watch the Power Grid to see).  Anderson had 14 targets last week and was a major part of the Houston offense.  Can that continue against San Francisco?  The 49ers have dropped in defensive abilities against the tight end over the past month (27^th overall over the last five games) and even with Will Fuller back, he could easily be used as more of a decoy with broken ribs.

GPP: The easy one is to look at Zach Ertz.  He was expected to miss this week’s clash with the Rams, but now he is moving up the injury report to where he could go this week.  If he suits up and plays, he could be very low owned – which is great for an elite option like Ertz.  Another lower owned elite tight end will be Jimmy Graham against Jacksonville, a team with a strong defense but if you believe in Russell Wilson this week, Graham has seen 24 red zone targets this year and he makes for a strong GPP pairing.  Cameron Brate is also a strong option that will get overlooked, but not by Jameis Winston who loves to key in to his big tight end.  Brate had two touchdowns last week against Green Bay and Detroit is not good at covering tight ends.

I saved the best for last, as my favorite GPP tight end this week is in the Kansas City – Oakland game, but I am not talking about Kelce.  Jared Cook had six catches and 107 yards when these two met in Week 7, and he could easily do the same and also find the end zone this week with Amari Cooper questionable.  At just $5,400, he could definitely reach the 3x mark against the Chiefs.    

KICKERS

CHALK and GPP: These general kicker comments will likely be repeated week after week, but they are important so take note. Yes, FanDuel is the only DFS site left that uses a kicker, but you have to deal with it if you are playing on FanDuel. Sorry, that's how it goes. But there's some good news - you can actually make smart, informed decisions that can go a long way towards increasing your bankroll. First, there are four general criteria in picking a kicker:

1. Pick a kicker who is playing at home
2. Pick a kicker who is in a game where his team is favored
3. Pick a kicker whose team is expected to score at least 24 points.
4. Pick a kicker who will not be in bad weather.

Just following that above recipe will help you quite a bit. Remember - a 50+ yard field goal is five points or almost as much as a touchdown. That's significant.

Week 14 looks very straightforward, which is a nice change of pace.  The Chargers added Travis Coons last week and he is a minimally priced kicker at $4,500 on a team that is a home (check) favorite (check) projected to score 26 points (check) in good weather (check).  That's 100% of the boxes to check and he is cheap.  There is your chalk kicker, for certain.

The only other thing to consider for tournaments is a pivot for the sake of differentiation.  Greg Zuerlein costs a little more, but he is also a home favorite and has the most kicker points in the NFL and is also 6 for 7 from 50+ yards this season.  Zuerlein has the third-most successful kicks from long range (Steven Hauschka and Harrison Butker both have seven) but he is the second-most accurate from that length of the three (Zuerlein is 6/7, Haushka is 7/8 and Butker is 7/10).  Hauschka could be a late week pivot that creeps up once the Buffalo point spread and line is established, as I expect the Bills to be a home favorite this week, regardless of who starts at quarterback.  These are the four main kickers on my list this week, but I will also point out that Graham Gano is going to be very low owned and has a reasonable shot at hitting 2x, but 3x may be a stretch.  He has scored 9+ fantasy points in 5 of the past 6 Carolina games and Minnesota is a Top 5 team in Red Zone defense, but when you consider that Gano has just one attempt from 50+ and was unsuccessful this season.  You really need a 50+ yard field goal to hit 3x, so stick with the Top 4 on my list.

TEAM DEFENSES

CHALK and GPP:  Week 14 looks tricky at first, but I see it as rather straightforward.  Buffalo has the Colts at home in the cold with snow in the forecast.  Indianapolis is a dome team heading into true Winter weather in December.  Throw in that the Colts have given up 50 sacks on the year plus 15 turnovers and the Bills look like a very attractive option.  I am not that concerned by their price, and frankly I like it as it will keep ownership down.  The chalk defense looks to be the Chargers against Washington, as Washington has a train wreck with their offensive line completely ravaged by injuries.  The Chargers should dominate this game at home, and could get a defensive touchdown later in the game with Kirk Cousins throwing every down in comeback mode.   I prefer the Chargers over the Bengals, who have several injuries on defense.  Even with a great matchup at home against the Bears (a team that somehow only ran 35 plays on offense last week), Chicago has some upside to put up some points and move the ball with Jordan Howard and the Bears have only given up five sacks in the past three games.

For tournaments, Green Bay is facing Cleveland, which automatically puts them in play.  DeShone Kizer takes a lot of sacks and Cleveland has given up 39 on the year and given up three touchdowns.  While I like the Cleveland offense overall, mistakes can and do happen with the Browns and a Packers defensive touchdown is well inside the realm of possibilities.  Considering that three teams have scored over 10 points against the Browns and a defensive touchdown is worth eight (six plus a turnover, and maybe even nine for a sack) then Green Bay makes our GPP list.

Speaking of defensive touchdowns, Detroit has seven this year.  That’s a big number, and Jameis Winston has had a few games in his career with multiple turnovers (seven in the past two seasons) and averages just over one INT a start, the odds of a Lions defensive score increases significantly.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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