In this article, we are going to take a look at the games in the Championship Round of the playoffs in an effort to give you options that we think can help you get the most out of your lineup. We are looking to maximize your lineup by giving you a few cheaper options that can help you to get your lineup loaded up in other areas.
We give consideration to the script of each of the games to determine how these games will likely play out. In some cases we also give the weather a tip of the cap. We evaluate the play of the wide receivers and tight ends and how they will match up with the defenses they will face. We also look at players that are injured, or those coming back from injury. We then target plays that we like and a few that we don’t.
With the help of our defensive guru Aaron Rudnicki, let’s take a look at players that we both like and a few that we would avoid this week.
3 STAR MATCHUPS
These are players that have the best matchups of the Championship Round of the playoffs.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona @ Carolina ($6,900)
Bischoff: Fitzgerald has had some of his finest moments in his career in the playoffs and last week was one of those moments. Working out of the slot, he can physically dominate the opposition’s slot corner to create a tremendous matchup problem and this week he’ll draw Panthers slot corner Cortland Finnegan. This is perhaps the weekend’s biggest mismatch and one Fitzgerald should win easily.
Rudnicki: Fitzgerald showed once again last week that he is capable of rising to the occasion in big moments. As the primary slot receiver for Arizona, he should match up with Cortland Finnegan most of the time and remain a focal point of the Cardinals passing attack.
Julian Edelman, WR, New England @ Denver ($7,500)
Bischoff: Edelman returned last week from a prolonged absence and while he dropped a few passes early, he looked fine from a physical standpoint and that makes him very appealing going forward. He’ll be one of Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s primary weapons in this game and in this full PPR format, he is very valuable.
Rudnicki: Edelman looked strong last week against the Chiefs and should be in line for a great game again this week thanks to the injury to Chris Harris. He’s considered a game-time decision but has been practicing. If he’s unable to play or limited like he was last week (which seems likely), Edelman becomes a strong play.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England @ Denver ($7,600)
Bischoff: When Gronkowksi is healthy, he is virtually uncoverable and that was on full display last week. He is big enough to box out cornerbacks and safeties, and he’s too quick for linebackers, thus making him unstoppable when he gets it roiling. This week he gets a Denver defense which can be had by tight ends, and I’d expect Gronkowski to have a featured role in this game Sunday.
Rudnicki: He showed last week that he can dominate regardless of the matchup, but the Broncos have been vulnerable to tight ends. We may see CB Aqib Talib on Gronkowski when he lines up out wide this week, but that’s still a matchup that he should be able to exploit due to his size advantage. More likely, they will try to double team him with some combination of linebackers and safeties, but very few teams have been able to slow him down when he’s healthy.
Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina vs. Arizona ($7,100)
Bischoff: When the Cardinals lost safety Tyrann Mathieu for the year to a torn ACL, it gave opposing offenses an area to attack, and the Cardinals have struggled to overcome this. Olsen is a premier tight end and the No. 1 pass-catching option in the Panthers potent offensive attack, and he’ll have to be at his best in this matchup.
Rudnicki: After a strong star to the year, the Cardinals appear to be struggling at defending tight ends over the past month or so. Olsen is the No. 1 passing target for the Panthers and the player that Cam Newton looks to in most key situations. This is matchup that he should be able to take advantage of with most of the defensive attention being focused on slowing down Cam Newton and the Panthers running attack.
2 STAR MATCHUPS
These are players that have neutral matchups. Players in this category should be used because of a potential low ownership number or because of their high upside.
Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona @ Carolina ($5,300)
Bischoff: Floyd had an outstanding second-half of the season after recovering from a hand injury. The emergence of speedster John Brown and slot receiver Larry Fitzgerald opens up the field for Floyd, and it allows him to use his big body to make plays. There is an expectation that Floyd will see some of Panthers cornerback Josh Norman in coverage and that alone is enough to temper expectations here. Floyd could have a decent day, but it’s tough to see huge upside from him here.
Rudnicki: Floyd has emerged as the slightly better option of the two Cardinals outside WRs lately, but I don’t think the difference is large enough for the Panthers to shadow him with Josh Norman. I think it’s likely they will let Norman and Robert McClain stay on their respective sides, which means Floyd should split time facing off against the two corners. McClain presents a very favorable matchup while Norman presents an unfavorable one, so overall this looks pretty neutral.
John Brown, WR, Arizona @ Carolina ($5,200)
Bischoff: The Cardinals offense is very potent, and the vertical element Brown gives it is extremely valuable. We’ve seen the Cardinals take shots down the field over and over this year, and they will in this game too. Brown has been slumping, but at his price he is absolutely worth the risk as it will a few big plays for him to reach value, and he’ll get that shot in this game.
Rudnicki: The Cardinals move their WRs around a lot so Brown and Floyd should each see Josh Norman at times. That’s enough to consider avoiding them, but the Cardinals may also be in a situation where they need to throw a lot to stay in the game and both WRs should have some success when matched up against McClain.
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver vs. New England ($7,000)
Bischoff: Thomas is an explosive weapon in the Broncos passing attack and they are going to need him at his best Sunday when the Broncos take on the Patriots at home. The Patriots will roll safety help to Thomas’ side of the field in an effort to limit him, but he’s the most explosive option the Broncos have on offense. He carries a lofty price tag but he’ll be a huge part of the Broncos offensive attack if they are to win this game.
Rudnicki: The Patriots typically have Malcolm Butler shadow the opposing team’s No. 2 receiver and that leaves Logan Ryan to match up with the No. 1 option with safety help over the top. So, even though Ryan has struggled at times down the stretch, he should get some added help to keep Thomas in check. That being said, Thomas is tough to contain when he’s on his game and is always a threat to gain big yards after the catch.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver vs. New England ($6,300)
Bischoff: Sanders is a very twitchy receiver capable of getting open quickly because of his foot quickness and route running savvy. Sanders’ particular set of skills allows the Broncos to move the chains, but he’s not just a short yardage possession receiver as he is very capable of generating yards after the catch. He has real value in this game because of the full point for receptions, and it’s easy to project a nice amount of volume going his way in this contest.
Rudnicki: Butler has played better than anybody expected him to this year and should pose a tough matchup for Sanders this week. In the last matchup, however, Sanders did have some success against him as he posted 6/113/0 in that game. If choosing between the two Broncos receivers, I’d probably lean a bit towards Sanders here.
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Carolina vs. Arizona ($2,400)
Bischoff: Cotchery is a very intriguing “swing for the fence” type of play this weekend. He’s not one of the Panthers top options in the passing game, but he plays out of the slot and that’s one of the biggest weaknesses currently with the loss of safety Tyrann Mathieu several weeks ago. Cotchery doesn’t need to go off in this game to get to GPP value because of his price as a few catches and a touchdown already get shim there.
Rudnicki: Cotchery has been the primary slot receiver for the Panthers, and that suggests a great matchup for him with nickel CB Jerraud Powers this week. His usage has not been great lately (9 catches over last 3 games), but he could make a sneaky choice here if you believe the Cardinals will be able to keep it close.
1 STAR MATCHUPS
These are players that have matchups to avoid. Players in this category should be faded because of the matchup with a cornerback/defensive scheme or because of a bad game script.
Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Carolina vs. Arizona ($4,300)
Bischoff: The reality with Ginn is that while he is a dangerous vertical threat in the Panthers offense, he isn’t much else. His value in DFS comes from throws deep down the field and those kinds of plays are going to be tough to come by this week with Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson shadowing him. Peterson has really emerged as a lockdown type of cornerback and this matchup is reason to avoid Ginn this week.
Rudnicki: As the Panthers de facto No. 1 WR, Ginn figures to see plenty of Patrick Peterson this week. He was a non-factor last week, and Peterson erased receiver James Jones in the matchup with the Packers. While he’s always a threat for a big play, Ginn looks like a clear player to avoid this week.
Danny Amendola, WR, New England @ Denver ($4,400)
Bischoff: Amendola was not targeted very much last week with Edelman returning from his foot injury even though the Patriots threw the ball 42 times. It is difficult to project enough volume for Amendola to warrant rostering him, specifically with Edelman and Gronkowski being the focal point on offense here.
Rudnicki: There is upside for Amendola if he lines up as the primary slot receiver this week, but he only managed two catches last week despite playing 76% of the offensive snaps. May be a solid contrarian play, but his usage with Edelman in the lineup has been minimal.
Brandon LaFell, WR, New England @ Denver ($3,300)
Bischoff: LaFell really disappeared in the Patriots offense as the season wore on, and there are too many options above him on the depth chart right now for him to be reliable enough to roster this week.
Rudnicki: He figures to match up primarily against Bradley Roby, who is solid but not imposing. LaFell has just not been much of a factor of late, and it seems unlikely for that to change now.
Owen Daniels, TE, Denver vs. New England ($2,300)
Bischoff: Daniels has a very tough challenge ahead of him this week as he faces a Patriots team that has done an excellent job versus tight ends this year. His upside is very limited even with such a low price, and there are simply better options at the tight end position this week.
Rudnicki: The Patriots have done a great job at limiting the damage done by opposing tight ends all year. Last week, Travis Kelce caught six passes against them but only picked up 23 yards. Daniels has emerged as the primary tight end with Vernon Davis spending most of his time on the bench lately, but he has the toughest matchup of all TEs this weekend.
