In this article, we take a look at the list of games for Week 16 in an effort to give you options that we think can help you get the most out of your lineup. We are looking to maximize your lineup by giving you a few cheaper options that can help you to get your lineup loaded up in other areas.
We give consideration to the script of each of the games to determine how these games will likely play out. We also evaluate the play of the wide receivers and tight ends and how they will match up with the defenses they will face. We also look at players that are injured, or those coming back from injury. We then target plays that we like and a few that we don’t.
With the help of our defensive guru Aaron Rudnicki, let’s take a look at players that we both like and a few that we would avoid this week.
GOOD MATCHUPS
Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh @ Baltimore ($5,600)
Bischoff: The Ravens have been fairly poor against the pass during the 2015 season, surrendering 28 touchdown passes through the season’s first 14 games. They’ve given up the sixth most touchdowns in the NFL, but their opponents haven’t thrown it much on them. 19 defenses have defended more passes than the Ravens. Simply put, it means they allow a high rate of touchdowns in relation to the number of throws they defend, and this week Bryant rolls into Baltimore riding an electric passing offense with the ability to score in a flash. He is absolutely worth a flier at his price.
Rudnicki: The Ravens corners have been a great matchup for opposing WRs all year. They didn’t get beat up too badly by the Chiefs last week, but allowed 5 TDs to the Seahawks a week earlier. The Steelers WRs beat up on the elite Broncos CBs last week, and they should find much less resistance here. The main concern is that the game could get out of hand early and cause the Steelers to rely heavily on the run game in the second half.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay vs. Chicago ($7,300)
Bischoff: Evans comes into the Week 16 contest against the Bears coming off a monster game against the Rams last week. He was targeted 17 times and converted nine of them into catches totaling 157 yards. Evans has a large size advantage over any cornerback the Bears will try to throw at him, and Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston will force the ball his way. Also, Buccaneers wide receiver Vincent Jackson is out for this game and that means significantly more volume for Evans.
Rudnicki: The Bears have gotten improved play from their corners in recent weeks, but it may not matter much. With Vincent Jackson out this week, Evans figures to once again see a heavy workload. He has a pretty big size advantage over Tracy Porter and Kyle Fuller and should have little trouble posting another big game.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami vs. Indianapolis ($6,400)
Bischoff: Landry has an attractive matchup in this game as he goes up against the league’s No. 28 ranked passing defense. We have seen the Dolphins use Landry out of the slot, utilizing him in a short-to-intermediate capacity to move the chains and keep the offense humming. Getting a full point for every reception is key here as Landry should continue to see plenty of volume.
Rudnicki: Landry works almost exclusively out of the slot, which should allow him to avoid the Colts top CB Vontae Davis. The Dolphins are struggling, but they are still running their passing game through Landry so he should once again see a large number of targets and receptions here with a likely matchup against the struggling Darius Butler.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington @ Philadelphia ($5,000)
Bischoff: If there is a strength in Jackson’s game, it is in his ability to take the top off the defense to make big plays in the vertical passing game. At his price, he realistically needs one big one to get to value. This matchup is one that might net Jackson a few big plays, and he’s a player that I’ll have in a bunch of lineups this week.
Rudnicki: The Eagles have gotten better than expected play from Eric Rowe at corner since he took over, but Byron Maxwell continues to be a weak spot. He has had issues with the deep ball all year, and that should play right into the hands of his expected matchup DeSean Jackson this week. He posted 153 yards and a touchdown last week against the Bills, and has a great chance to put up big numbers again here.
Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans vs. Jacksonville ($5,900)
Bischoff: Rostering Cooks is very much dependent on the quarterback situation in New Orleans. Quarterback Drew Brees has a foot injury and in questionable to play, but if he does that makes Cooks a very intriguing play with giant upside. This is a very good matchup for Cooks, one he should be able to exploit Sunday.
Rudnicki: Cooks has matched up with several of the league’s elite corners (Josh Norman, Darius Slay) the past few weeks and come out on top. He should find things much easier here against the Jaguars corners, and the Saints have played much better at home. Obviously, the Brees injury is a concern though so keep that in mind if he’s unable to play.
Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville @ New Orleans ($5,100)
Bischoff: The Saints have been torched versus the pass on a consistent basis in 2015 and tight ends have certainly has their way this season. Thomas has helped the Jaguars passing game since his return from injury, as it has given much needed room for their receivers to operate. He comes into this game on a roll and is one of the better tight end options available right now.
Rudnicki: The Saints have been among the most generous defenses in the league towards the TE position, and now they are facing one of the hottest players at the position. Thomas has found the end zone in 4 of the last 5 games, and has averaged nearly 6 catches/game in that same span.
Jason Witten, TE, Dallas @ Buffalo ($3,900)
Bischoff: The Bills defense looks confused and rattled over the past few weeks. Last week Redskins tight end Jordan Reed took them apart, but he is a much more athletic player than Witten, so expecting Witten to go “Reed” is unrealistic. What is realistic is to expect Witten to be a very big security blanket for new starting quarterback Kellen Moore. This means lots of short throws from completions, and plenty of opportunity in this full-PPR format.
Rudnicki: The Bills defense has softened considerably against TEs in recent weeks since they lost LB Nigel Bradham and CB Stephon Gilmore to injury. They’ve allowed 4 TDs over the past 4 games, and Jordan Reed torched them with a pair of first half touchdowns last week. Witten is not a big play threat, but he should be a reliable option for new Cowboys QB Kellen Moore here.
BAD MATCHUPS
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati @ Denver ($7,100)
Bischoff: Last week the Broncos pass defense got handled when they went up against the potent Steelers attack, but it is the only time this year they’ve really been exposed. The Broncos are the league’s best pass defense with lockdown corners and the ability to generate pressure up front. Green is a legitimate stud receiver, but the Bengals are missing quarterback Andy Dalton and that downgrade at the position is a big key to Green’s likely struggles this week.
Rudnicki: The Broncos secondary had their worst game of the year against the Steelers last week, but that’s unlikely to happen again. Meanwhile, Green was pulled early in the easy win over the 49ers last week with back issues, so he may not be fully healthy for the matchup here. He’s an elite WR, but the downgrade at QB for Cincinnati and the tough matchup should be enough reason to look elsewhere this week.
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta vs. Carolina ($8,300)
Bischoff: There are several factors playing into why Jones is not a great option in Week 16. He is, without a doubt, one of the NFL’s most dominant wide receivers but the cost to play him and the matchup versus cornerback Josh Norman are the reasons to fade him this week. He’ll make plays versus the Carolina defense but he won’t get to value because of his cost and low upside.
Rudnicki: Josh Norman has given up a bit more yards and receptions in recent weeks than we’ve come to expect from him, but he has still managed to keep elite WRs like Beckham and Julio Jones in check. He’ll get a rematch with Julio here, but should win enough battles to make choosing Julio a bad idea.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo vs. Dallas ($6,700)
Bischoff: The Dallas defense has been fairly stingy to wide receivers in 2015 and the game script here is one that speaks to a low scoring game in this matchup. While Watkins has emerged this year to show the reasons that he was so coveted in the 2014 NFL draft, he isn’t in store for a huge game in Week 16 and the cost to roster him is better used elsewhere.
Rudnicki: The corners in Dallas aren’t particularly worrisome, but they have been a tougher than expected matchup for opposing WRs. Whether he’s lined up against Morris Claiborne or Brandon Carr, Watkins should have an advantage. With 6 TDs in his last 4 games, he’s likely to be a popular choice this week but the Dallas defense has only given up 8 TDs to opposing WRs all year.
Tavon Austin, WR, St. Louis @ Seattle ($4,300)
Bischoff: Austin has become a potent weapon in this Rams offense because of the variety of ways they are getting him the ball. He doesn’t see a consistent amount of targets in the passing game, but the Rams augment that with the few carries he gets every week. He needs to score a rushing touchdown to realistically be worthy of rostering, and I don’t see that this week against the tough Seahawks defense.
Rudnicki: Austin is coming off a strong game against Tampa Bay, but he figures to see plenty of Richard Sherman this week. That alone is likely reason enough to steer clear of him.
Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland @ Kansas City ($4,700)
Bischoff: The Chiefs have smothered tight ends in 2015, and it seems that each and every tight end facing them has been limited and negated altogether. Barnidge and the Browns go on the road in this AFC matchup to take on one of the hotter teams in the league, and it’s tough to see much happening for him this week.
Rudnicki: Barnidge has been one of the year’s most pleasant surprises, but he’s facing the league’s toughest defense against TEs this week. The Chiefs have only allowed 3 TDs to the position all year, and an average of just 4 catches for less than 40 yards.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City vs. Cleveland ($4,300)
Bischoff: Kelce looked like a breakout player coming into the 2015 season and he’s flashed to be sure, but the game plan hurts him on a weekly basis as the Chiefs play things in a very conservative manner. Also, the Browns have done a great job recently of taking opposing tight ends away from opposing offenses and as good as Kelce is, he is a player to fade in Week 16.
Rudnicki: Kelce is a very talented young tight end, but the Chiefs have not used him nearly as much as they could due to a relatively conservative offensive approach. Additionally, the Browns have not allowed a TD to the position in the last 5 games with no opposing TE breaking 4 catches, or 50 yards in that same time span.
