Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Hindery
Andy Dalton - Dalton is on pace for 35 total touchdowns this season and is once again showing that he is capable of putting up QB1 numbers in fantasy football (he was also a QB1 in 2013). While his 4,250 passing yard, 35 touchdown pace is not particularly exciting in this season of big passing numbers, it is worth remembering that most quarterbacks are peaking later in their careers. Ben Roethlisberger (at age 33) is the youngest of the five quarterbacks throwing for more than 300 yards per game this season. Roethlisberger, arguably the top fantasy quarterback this season when healthy, threw more than 28 touchdown passes just one time in his first ten seasons. Tom Brady also topped 28 touchdown passes just one time in his first ten seasons. When the Pittsburgh and New England defenses inevitably fell from the ranks of the elite, Roethlisberger and Brady had to throw more often and pick up the slack. The same dynamic is likely to occur at some point in the near future for Dalton. The Bengals top four defensive backs are all going to be unrestricted free agents after the season and it is not going to be possible to keep the NFL’s top scoring defense together much longer. Dalton ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per attempt and is also near the top of the league in touchdowns per attempt. He leads the NFL in passer rating at 107.4. The only thing standing between Dalton and elite fantasy production is more passing attempts and that is likely to change at some point in the future.
Matt Ryan - Ryan has really struggled to finish off drives with touchdowns this season. It has been the primary reason why the Falcons have lost five straight games after such a promising start. On the season, Ryan has only 17 touchdown passes (and 13 interceptions) despite playing with a transcendent receiving talent in Julio Jones. He has thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game just once all season. With the recent influx of exciting young quarterbacking talent in the league, it is tough to consider the 30-year old Ryan much of a dynasty asset anymore. He’s neither a valuable current asset (like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, etc.) nor an exciting prospect with a bright future (like Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr, etc.). For fantasy purposes, he’s a backup right now and there isn’t a whole lot of hope for that to change any time soon.
Hammond
Ben Roethlisberger - Week 13's 364 yard, four TD game follows a 456 yard performance the previous week, and now in six of eight games he has thrown for at least 334 yards. Slowed only by injury this year, Roethlisberger might otherwise be knocking on the door of a 5,000 yard, 30+ TD season. He is among the elite quarterbacks in the NFL and seems to make the players around him better, as demonstrated by a 200+ yard game by Marcus Wheaton in Week 12 while favorite target Antonio Brown was blanketed by the Seattle defense. Even though he is 33 years old, others like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have shown that elite veteran quarterbacks today can excel at least to age 37-38, giving Roethlisberger several years of potential top end seasons.
Teddy Bridgewater - After a pretty solid rookie campaign in 2014, dynasty leaguers were hoping for a second year leap from Bridgewater. Instead he has played at about the same level and he is looking more and more like a game manager than a rising star. His completion percentage is just OK at 65%, but his yards per attempt has fallen to just 6.9 (it was 7.3 as a rookie) and his TDs to INTs are just 8 to 8 through 12 games. The Vikings thought they were adding formidable weapons the last couple years in first rounder Cordarelle Patterson (bust), Charles Johnson (regressed badly), Mike Wallace (underperformed as the big offseason signing), but only surprising 5th rounder Stephon Diggs has exceeded expectations. Bridgewater may turn out be to be solid, efficient pro quarterback, but at this point he doesn't look like he will become a big fantasy stat producer anytime soon.
Running Back
Hammond
Doug Martin - Martin has followed his monster 235 yard Week 11 performance with games of 97 and 95 yards rushing, and now has 1133 yards on the season while sporting a 5.0 YPC. Complemented by the continuing maturation of quarterback Jemeis Winston and a set of now-healthy pass catchers in receivers Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Martin should continue to be among the most productive backs in the league.
DeMarco Murray - Murray has only had 35 total carries the last three games, and his snaps in Week 13 fell to a season low 14. Many have said all season that Murray is not a good fit for the Eagles' scheme, and apparently now HC Chip Kelly is finally conceding that he must look in another direction if he wants to have a successful running game. Both Darren Sproles and Kenjon Barner out-touched Murray this week and now Kelly says he will evaluate the running back rotation on a week-to-week basis. When Ryan Mathews returns from his concussion he may well be the lead back.
Hindery
LeSean McCoy - McCoy saw his value drop precipitously after a rough 2014 season and a trade to Buffalo. Nagging injuries and strong play from Karlos Williams in the early part of the season also took a bite out of McCoy’s dynasty value. In recent weeks, McCoy has finally looked fully healthy and shown the explosiveness and make-you-miss ability that made him a truly elite back from 2010-2013. Even if you buy the argument that McCoy is an “old 27,” his recent play still gives reason for optimism that McCoy will be a valuable fantasy asset for at least a couple more years. While McCoy is no longer one of the top dynasty backs, he still retains plenty of short-to-medium term value. Especially with so few backs consistently receiving 20+ touches per game in the current offensive environment.
Javorius Allen - Allen’s 12-catch 107 receiving yard performance in Week 13 (along with 63 rushing yards on 17 carries) showed the fantasy upside inherent in the Baltimore offense for the starting running back. No team in the NFL has targeted it’s lead back in the passing game as regularly as Baltimore has over the past five years. With Marc Trestman in charge of the offense, it should be expected that Baltimore’s running backs should combine to catch 100+ balls in 2016. The only question is who the lead back will be and how much of a rotation there will be. Allen has started to make a compelling case for the job. Baltimore has a bevy of serious team needs (pass rushers, defensive backs and wide receivers most obviously) and using an early pick on a running back is probably not in the cards this offseason. That should leave Allen to compete with 30-year old Justin Forsett for the starting job. While Forsett doesn’t turn 31 years old until next October, it’s likely he will begin to slow down next season (and he didn’t look great in 2015). The opportunity is there for Allen to seize the starting job down this offseason. If he does so, he should be a PPR-monster.
Wide Receiver
Hindery
Odell Beckham, Jr. - While Beckham never fell very far in the overall dynasty rankings, his case for ranking at the top of the dynasty rankings certainly took a hit in the early part of the season. In the first seven weeks, he reached 80 receiving yards in a game just twice. He was having a solid but unspectacular season and was mired in a sophomore slump. Since November 1st however, he has been on fire. He has topped 100 receiving yards in each of his past five games and has seven touchdowns over the five-game stretch. Beckham just turned 23 years-old last month and has only played in 24 career games, but already has 2,459 receiving yards and 22 touchdowns. His career averages of over seven catches and 100 yards per game and nearly one touchdown per game are incredible. He is averaging ~23 points per game in PPR leagues for his career and is unlikely to slow down any time soon.
Hammond
Doug Baldwin - Doug Baldwin is on fire: 24-433-6 in the four games since Seattle's bye, and quarterback Russell Wilson's clear #1 pass catcher going forward with the patella tendon injury to tight end Jimmy Graham. That pace of course can't continue, but Baldwin has always been a bit under-appreciated in fantasy circles and it is good to see him emerge the way he has. I don't expect Graham to return to full health next season even though the Seahawks' brass will say all the right things, and I think Baldwin will again be underrated going into next year.
Jordan Matthews - Since Week 6 Matthews has had only one particularly good game (9-133-1 in Week 9). While he has had a couple of garbage time TDs which help mask his usage decline, for the most part he has been just a guy over the last six games, and in the last two games his snaps have fallen to 46 each, his lowest of the season. He has had just 13 catches and 130 yards, and has averaged just five targets, over the last four games. Part of the problem may be quarterbacking, but a lot of it falls on Matthews who has not been getting open and has been dropping passes when he does get open, and it appears he has lost the confidence of those calling the plays. I had Matthews among the top 20 receivers entering the season after his 67-872-8 rookie year, but today that appears a long, long time ago. He now looks like a very middling fantasy asset.
Tight End
Hammond
Vance McDonald - I can't tell you how many times I've added Vance McDonald to my fantasy teams during his first two seasons, expecting him to emerge as Vernon Davis went into his many low stat funks, then McDonald would do nothing (or get hurt) and I'd drop him again. I think now in Year 3 of his career, with the Harbaugh/Kaepernick era over and Davis traded to Denver, McDonald may actually become a fantasy asset worth holding. I understand there is competition in Garrett Celek and rookie 5th rounder Blake Bell, but 2013 2nd rounder McDonald is a far superior pass catcher to those guys and has finally gotten a chance to show he can be an offensive weapon for the 49ers, a team seriously short on pass catching weapons (Boldin is 35 and Torrey Smith is a one trick pony). McDonald suffered a concussion in Week 13 so his stats weren't much, but in the previous two games we totaled 10-136-2 against the stout defenses of Seattle and Arizona. I think this is the start of something good and I think dynasty owners thinking longer term ought to be looking to add him.
Jimmy Graham - Last week HC Pete Carroll said Graham should be fully recovered for the 2016 season, and this week Carroll said trading for him was a "great long-term decision." This may be a bit of whistling past the graveyard, and I don't buy it. The fact is, the odds of players who suffer patella tendon injuries ever making it back to form are really bad, and it doesn't help that Graham is in the back half of his career anyway (he turns 30 during next season). Whether it is a re-tear of the tendon, compensating injuries, or simply a lack of strength/explosion due to the original injury, the history of players who never made it back to be productive players is disturbing. This injury could be a career killer and I don't want to sugar coat that. If you own Graham, seriously lower expectations for next year. If someone wants to trade him to you this offseason, don't pay anywhere near pre-injury price in the hope he'll be just fine. Chances are 2016 will be a struggle for Graham.
Hindery
Martellus Bennett - Bennett is turning into a serious malcontent in Chicago and is not the type of elite talent that can get away with acting up in the locker room. Bennett has struggled all season (averaging just over five yards per target) and is on pace for just 585 yards and four touchdowns. With Alshon Jeffery in and out of the lineup and the Bears desperate for pass catchers to step up for Jay Cutler, Bennett has not been able to take the initiative. The reports of attitude issues with Bennett could even see him get cut this offseason and good teams could be leery of bringing him into their locker rooms. Given his placement on injured reserve on Tuesday cannot help his outlook with the team. It’s hard to trust Bennett for fantasy purposes this season and his future looks extremely murky as well.
