In this weekly DraftKings article, we will discuss some FAT STACKS (Cash Game Stacks) that should provide a high floor for your 50-50 and H2H cash game contests. These stacks are safe to use in your GPP tournaments as well, but they may carry a high ownership percentage. In the second half of this article, it’s all about A Dollar and a Dream! DraftKings has a few special championship tournaments for this weekend’s slate. The highlight of the holiday weekend is a $4 Million Guarantee, where somebody will walk away with a cool million dollars for only a $20 buy-in!
***The key to Week 16 is to determine which teams are still playing for something and which teams have packed it in for the season. Motivation is everything at this point of the season! ***
FAT STACK$ ($$ Cash GAME STACKS $$)
Oakland Raiders Stack vs. Indianapolis Colts
QB Derek Carr $6,800 with WR Michael Crabtree $6,100 (Cash Games or GPP)
Two teams that are still fighting for the playoffs are the Indianapolis Colts and the Oakland Raiders. The 7-7 Colts still have a slim chance of winning the division but they will need to win out and get help with losses from Houston and Tennessee. The Titans play the Jaguars earlier on Christmas Eve so by the time the Colts take the field their chances of making the playoffs may be slim to none. The 11-3 Raiders currently hold a one-game lead over the Chiefs for the AFC West. The Raiders can clinch the AFC West division title and a first-round bye with an Oakland win and a Kansas City loss or tie. Vegas has the Raiders/Colts matchup with the highest game total of the week at 53 points. The Raiders have the 2nd highest projected team total of the weekend at 28.25 points. Raiders QB Derek Carr and WR Michael Crabtree have both been playing through finger injuries. Carr has been playing exclusively out of the shotgun formation to protect his injured finger. Crabtree has led the Raiders in targets, receptions and TDs this season with 77 receptions on 127 targets for 866 yards and 8 TDs. At first look, Crabtree seems to be inconsistent this season with (4) games under 6.1 DraftKings fantasy points. However, (3) of those games have been against either Kanas City or Denver who each have elite defenses. Crabtree has (8) games with at least 17.7 DraftKings fantasy points. This is another week where Crabtree is underpriced as the 16th highest WR on DraftKings.
New Orleans Saints Stack vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB Drew Brees $7,400 with WR Michael Thomas $6,000 and/or Brandin Cooks $6,800 (Cash Games or GPP)
The Saints showed us last week that they are still playing hard with a 48-41 road victory in Arizona. The week prior the Saints played this same Buccaneers team to a disappointing 16-11 loss. Vegas believes this matchup will be at a different pace as evidenced by the 52.5 game total and the Saints being favored by 3 points. New Orleans has the 3rd highest projected team total of the weekend at 27.75 points. The Saints are typically a different team at home. Drew Brees career home/road splits are remarkable. Through 232 career games (116 at home and 116 on the road), Brees has 269 TDs at home and 193 TDs on the road. His completion percentage is almost a full 2 points higher at home with 67.5% as compared to 65.7% on the road. Brees is the top option at QB but the question is who to stack with him, Brandin Cooks or Michael Thomas. Both receivers have had their moments this season. Cooks has had 3 huge games this season with at least 33.5 DraftKings points. Thomas has 6 games with at least 18.2 DraftKings points. Thomas is the more consistent option for cash games and comes with an $800 salary discount on DraftKings. This savings may make a difference when building your rosters. If playing multiple lineups, creating a Brees stack with each player and even a superstack with both players in GPP tournaments is not a bad idea.
DEFENSIVE STACK (GPP Tournaments)
There is a defensive stack that stands out this weekend can be used in GPP tournaments.
New England Patriots Stack vs. New York Jets
RB LeGarrette Blount $5,600 with Patriots DST $3,600 (GPP)
If you told me prior to the season that the Patriots would be without Rob Gronkowski and still be listed as 16.5 favorites over their division rivals, I probably would not have believed it. The 12-2 Patriots can clinch home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs with a victory and an Oakland loss or tie. The Patriots have the largest projected team total of the weekend at 30 points. The 4-10 Jets have packed it in for the season with losses in 5 of their last 6 games. The Jets rush defense may give the illusion of a difficult matchup but two games ago they allowed 248 rushing yards and 1 TD to the 49ers. The last thing this defense will want to do is tackle the 240+ pound RB LeGarrette Blount, who leads the NFL with 15 touchdowns this season. The Patriots defense is the chalk defense of the week at $3,600. That comes with being a 16.5-point favorite. Jets QB Bryce Petty will be forced to the air as he will likely be playing from behind. Petty has 6 interceptions and 1 fumble over his past four games.
A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (GPP STACKS)
Here are some GPP stacks that should carry a low ownership percentage but provide multi-touchdown upside.
Atlanta Falcons Stack at Carolina Panthers
QB Matt Ryan $7,200 with WR Taylor Gabriel $6,200 (GPP)
The 9-5 Falcons can clinch the NFC South Division Title win a win over the Panthers and a Tampa Bay loss or tie. Vegas has the Falcons/Panthers game with the 3rd highest game total of the weekend at 51.5 points and the Falcons have the 4th highest projected team total at 27 points. The Falcons offense has been on a roll with at least 28 points in 7 of their past 8 games. The Panthers pass defense has been the exact opposite allowing 275/passing yards/per game, worst in the NFL. Matt Ryan has been one of the most consistent QBs in the league with at least 1 TD in every game and multiple TDs in 10 games this season. Julio Jones missed last week’s game with a toe injury and was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. Jones has not tested his toe by running at full speed yet. Whether Jones plays or not, Taylor Gabriel is still in play this week on DrafKings at a price of $6,200. Gabriel has shown a nose for the end zone with 7 TDs in his past 7 games.
Pittsburgh Steelers Stack vs. Baltimore Ravens
QB Ben Roethlisberger $6,700 with WR Antonio Brown $8,200 (GPP)
If you are playing the full weekend slate, the Steelers square off with the Ravens on Christmas Day with the AFC North Title on the line. The Steelers are a 5-point home favorite with a team total of 24.75 points. Ben Roethlisberger’s home/road splits continue to be an enigma. This season, Roethlisberger has averaged 327.2 passing yards/per game and 28.4 DraftKings fantasy points/per game at home while averaging 238.0 passing yards/per game and 14.5 DraftKings fantasy points/per game on the road. While these numbers are extreme, some players are simply more comfortable in certain environments. The Ravens have been stout against the run this season allowing 82.1 rushing yards/per game, 2nd best in the NFL. They can be beat through the air, especially if CB Jimmy Smith is inactive. Smith missed last week’s game against the Patriots and did not practice on Wednesday. Many will say that Antonio Brown has had an average season but he still has 96 receptions on 143 targets for 1,188 and 11 touchdowns with two games left. This is the type of matchup where the Steelers may lean on Brown more the Bell. When these teams met earlier in the season, Brown went for 7 receptions on 11 targets for 85 yards and 1 TD.
Green Bay Packers Stack vs. Minnesota Vikings
QB Aaron Rodgers $6,700 with WR Jordy Nelson $7,000 (GPP)
The Packers can still win the NFC North Title with victories over the Minnesota and Detroit. Expect Green Bay to come out motivated and move one step closer to the division title with a win this weekend. The Packers are a 7-point home favorite with a team total of 25 points. Aaron Rodgers comes with a discount this week on DraftKings as the 8th-highest QB with a salary of only $6,700. Last week was the Ty Montgomery show due to the game conditions. Prior to last week, Rodgers had thrown for multiple touchdowns in 8 consecutive games. Jordy Nelson has been the go-to target in the Packers passing game all season with 82 receptions on 135 targets for 1,037 yards and 12 touchdowns. While Nelson may not have the breakaway speed that he had prior to his ACL injury, Rodgers continues to force him the ball.
Thank you for reading! And as always, feel free to send any comments, suggestions, or nasty remarks to me on Twitter @shiposki75
