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In many respects, Andy Dalton has had one of the most prolific beginnings to his career of any quarterback in league history. If you were to generate a list of players who passed for 11,000 yards in their first three seasons, you would wind up with Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Andy Dalton, and Cam Newton. If you were to further require a minimum of 80 passing touchdowns, Newton would drop off the list and you’d be left only with Dalton and two of the most prolific passers in league history. In standard Footballguys fantasy scoring, Peyton Manning provided 939.5 fantasy points in his first three seasons, Dan Marino provided 933.0, and Andy Dalton provided 926.7. Put that way, it’s honestly rather baffling why Andy Dalton remains one of the most disrespected quarterbacks in the NFL, currently being drafted as the 17th quarterback off the board. How do we account for this marked disparity between what Dalton has done and how Dalton is viewed?

For starters, context is important. In 2013, the average NFL team passed for 3770 yards. In 2000, Peyton Manning’s third season, that average was 3310 yards. In 1986, Dan Marino’s third season, that average was 3289 yards. Dalton may be as prolific as Manning or Marino, but compared to his peers his numbers seem much more pedestrian. In fact, if we calculate the fantasy points per game of every quarterback who played at least 16 games over the last three years, Andy Dalton’s 19.31 PPG comes in at 16th, right in line with where he’s being drafted. Each of the 15 quarterbacks ahead of Dalton are still active and will be starting in 2014. For comparison, in Peyton Manning’s first three years, he ranked 6th, and one of the quarterbacks ahead of him (Steve Young) had already retired. In Dan Marino’s first three years, he ranked first in points per game by a massive margin. This goes a long way towards explaining why Dalton is generating so much less excitement than the first two passers. Peyton Manning’s fantasy peers were Trent Green, Rich Gannon, Brett Favre, and Jeff Garcia. Dan Marino’s fantasy peers were nonexistent. Andy Dalton’s fantasy peers are Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, and Eli Manning- four other players, it should be noted, who are being drafted as fantasy backups this year.

Perhaps this comparison is unfair, though. After all, Dalton has improved in each of his three seasons in his league. Dalton has improved his passing yardage, his touchdown percentage, his yards per attempt, and his passer rating in every season of his career so far. Should we not assume he follows along a similar upward trajectory in year 4? To answer this, I pulled up a list of all quarterbacks who started at least 32 games in their first three seasons, including at least 4 in each individual season, and whose yard per attempt average stayed constant or improved every year. In the last 20 years, I found five such quarterbacks: Sam Bradford, Joe Flacco, David Carr, Byron Leftwich, and Donovan McNabb. Of those five, Flacco, Carr, and Leftwich dramatically underperformed their career YPA average in their fourth season. While YPA is hardly the only way to measure passing success, the point remains that steady gains in the first three years do not guarantee steady gains in the fourth season. Dalton is as likely to take a step back as he is to take another step forward.

Adding to the negative perception of Andy Dalton was his own inconsistency last year. Only six quarterbacks had more games with a passer rating over 100 than Dalton did in 2013. At the same time, only four quarterbacks had more games with a passer rating below 70. Dalton earned Offensive Player of the Month honors in October based largely on a three-game stretch that saw him throw for 11 touchdowns against 2 interceptions with a YPA average of 9.9 and a passer rating of 126.0. Dalton followed that up with a three-game stretch that saw him throw for 5 touchdowns against 11 interceptions with a YPA of 5.4 and a passer rating of 55.7. Even the owners that drafted Andy Dalton probably did not benefit much from his top fantasy finish in 2013, simply because they were so likely to be starting him when he had a bad game and sitting him when he had a good one.

Also contributing to Dalton’s horrible reputation is his truly atrocious level of play on the biggest stage. In three career playoff games, Dalton has thrown 1 touchdown against 6 interceptions, averaging 5.8 yards per attempt and accumulating a passer rating of 56.2. How bad is that? In the last 30 years, 64 quarterbacks have attempted at least 100 passes in the postseason. Just six of them- Kordell Stewart, Mike Tomczak, Jay Fiedler, Jay Schroeder, Stan Humphries, and Drew Bledsoe- have a lower passer rating than Dalton.

Typically, postseason performance is more memorable, and therefore gets given too much weight when analyzing a player; it’s possible that his horrible postseason performances cloud our collective judgment and cause us to believe he’s a worse quarterback than he really is. Still, while he’s undoubtedly better than his cumulative postseason statistics would suggest, he is just as undoubtedly worse than his third-place fantasy finish in 2013. A case can certainly be made for having Andy Dalton higher than his current ADP of QB17, but an equally compelling case could be made for each of the quarterbacks ahead of him. Ben Roethlisberger, QB16 by ADP, outscored every quarterback other than Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Nick Foles from week 9 to the end of the season. Philip Rivers, QB15 by ADP, essentially matched Dalton’s volume stats with dramatically better efficiency. Jay Cutler, QB14 by ADP, quarterbacks last year’s 2nd highest-scoring offense, a team that collectively was the 4th most-prolific passing attack in the league last year behind Denver, New Orleans, and Philadelphia. In order to accept that Andy Dalton is undervalued, we must be able to present a clear case as to why he deserves to go before the players that are currently being drafted ahead of him. Unfortunately for Dalton, that case is murky at best. The fact that the arguments for Dalton are neither more nor less compelling than the arguments for the players drafted around him suggests that he is being valued appropriately.

Positives

• Dalton is positively surrounded by weapons in the passing game, from a true matchup-dominating #1 receiver in A.J. Green to a deep and varied group of complementary targets.
• Dalton is coming off a 3rd-place fantasy finish in 2013 and, with the notable exception of his offensive coordinator, almost all of last year’s support system is returning intact. 
• Dalton is young, has improved every season, and will be playing 2014 with a potential big-money contract hanging in the balance; he should be extremely motivated.
• Dalton has a history of good health and has little competition on the roster; he should be one of the safer bets to remain healthy and productive, making him ideal as a fantasy backup and general safety net.

Negatives

• Dalton is not nearly as proven or as talented as many of the quarterbacks being drafted in the same area.
• Dalton’s volume stats are inflated by his health; since entering the league, his per-game fantasy production has been underwhelming.

Final Thoughts

All of the quarterbacks being drafted as the 13th-17th players off the board at their position have very strong arguments in their favor. It seems fairly certain that one or more of them will dramatically outperform his draft position. It also seems certain that, with the benefit of hindsight, it will seem obvious which of those quarterbacks was destined to succeed. With the benefit of foresight, however, Dalton’s arguments seem no more compelling than anyone else’s. Still, if you wait a bit too long at the quarterback position and decide to platoon several top backups, Andy Dalton has a lot to offer with his high floor and strong sense of security.

Andy Dalton’s Projections

Other Viewpoints

Evan Silva discusses his low ranking of Dalton:

Owners drafting Dalton based on last year's stats are likely to be disappointed in 2014, perhaps severely. Whereas outgoing OC Jay Gruden allowed Dalton to fire off the eighth most pass attempts (586) in football, the Bengals' website believes new OC Hue Jackson wants Dalton closer to the Russell Wilson range of 407. Jackson has prioritized cutting down turnovers after Dalton committed 23 in 2013, including the NFL's fifth most interceptions (20). The best way to do that is to limit Dalton's impact on games. The box-score beneficiaries will be Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Dalton is being turned into a game manager during his contract year.

Chris Wesseling evaluates Dalton after 2013's playoff loss:

Dalton entered the league with a reputation as a poor man's Matt Ryan, underwhelming as a thrower but NFL-ready with plus intangibles and fundamentals.

Three years later, there has been no growth. The only difference is that it's Dalton's decision-making rather than his arm strength that is preventing the Bengals' offense from reaching its potential.