Arizona
Rookie wide receiver John Brown becomes fantasy relevant with an impressive first year campaign. I'm not taking anything away from Larry Fitzgerald or Michael Floyd, but I believe John Brown can and will see the field more than we think. Early predictions are calling for him to see 60% of snaps. If that's the case we could see a T.Y. Hilton-like rookie season of 50-60 recs. Not only is this good for Brown, who some say reminds them of a young Steve Smith, but also Carson Palmer's outlook.
Atlanta
The early money is on rookie Devonta Freeman to produce in the Falcons offense behind Steven Jackson, but it's been Jacquizz Rodgers getting the 2nd team accolades in the preseason. This much we know, Freeman and Rodgers are excellent pass-catching backs. Rodgers has more experience, but Freeman is more explosive. So which one has the biggest impact? How about this? Steven Jackson. If he can stay healthy, Jackson should be the leading back with the best chance for goal line scores. Its possible that Freeman overtakes Rodgers, but right now Jackson is the one to have - if he can stay healthy. If Jackson can reach 200 carries, he should be a lock for a Top 20 finish.
Baltimore
I am not sold on Ray Rice returning to form, although he does look ten times better this year than last. I think that hip injury really put a damper on his 2013 season. He tried to play through it and just was not the same. Bernard Pierce has shown some flashes of strong play, but I don't see a significant role for him. The one player who could emerge as an option in the backfield is rookie fourth round pick Lorenzo Taliaferro. At 6'0, 229 pounds, he is a load who can be used as a high volume back if needed. His goal line presence is intriguing, plus if he gets opportunities and excels in the first few weeks while Rice is suspended, he could carve out more of a role. Evan Silva, of RotoWorld, NBC Sports has gone as far as saying Taliaferro could be this year's Alfred Morris. As of late August, Taliaferro is second in the league in rushing yards in the preseason behind Rashad Jennings with 155 yards on 40 attempts (3.9 YPC). He's a great last pick in drafts, especially if you selected Rice earlier.
Buffalo
There was a reason why the Bills made a trade for Bryce Brown at the Draft - they like his potential and think he could be a starting back in the league. The Bills have not re-signed C.J. Spiller after this year, which leads me to believe he won't be a part of their 2015 plans. If that's the case, enter Bryce Brown who becomes a person of interest not only next year but this year as well. Fred Jackson appears to be a part of the future for at least through 2015, but he is not someone who can handle the load over a full season. If the Bills want to see what they have in Brown, he should see plenty of opportunities this year. It would not surprise me to see him reach upwards of 150 carries or possibly more if he makes good on his opportunities. Brown has averaged 5.4 YPC in the preseason this year.
Carolina
I have not been impressed with DeAngelo Williams at all this preseason. The running game overall has not looked that good, but when Williams runs, he's just not getting to the hole quick enough and is not showing much power or burst to gain even a few yards after contact. Jonathan Stewart, on the other hand, has done a decent job of moving the pile if he can't find room to run. Stewart has seen his share of ankle issues, but he looks healthy and could be poised for a good run in 2014. It would not surprise me at all to see him be the leading rusher for Carolina this year. He has been a threat at the goal line in seasons past and with Cam Newton probably taking fewer risks from the end zone stripe, Stewart becomes a very intriguing option that can result in a flex option at the very least. Also - Kelvin Benjamin has the opportunity and ability to be this year's offensive rookie of the year.
Chicago
The Bears are loaded at all positions on offense, which leads me to believe that Jay Cutler is going to be a big beneficiary of fantasy production. This is a quick prediction for me - Jay Cutler of 2014 equals Matt Ryan of years past, which means no worse than a Top 10 finish. He could even be catapulted to the Top 6.
Cincinnati
I am a HUGE fan of Giovani Bernard, both as a player and a person, however the hype has gotten so big that he is not a value anymore at his current ADP of 1.11 in 12 team PPR re-draft leagues as of late August. I've said this before that Bernard reminds me of LaDainan Tomlinson, especially with his nose for the end zone, but I have to pump the brakes right there. If he's fed the ball like LT was in his prime, I can see the fantasy translation, however Cincinnati also has another running back on the team that not enough people are talking about, and that's rookie second round pick from LSU, RB Jeremy Hill. It would not surprise me to see Hill be fantasy relevant with a 6-8 touchdown season and close to 200 carries. He has averaged 4.8 YPC in three preseason games so far. If he can keep that average and continue to get carries in the regular season, he'll be a nice surprise. I'm calling for 200 carries and Top 20 finish.
Cleveland
With Josh Gordon officially suspended for the 2014 season, someone is going to have to catch balls for the Browns this year and my money is on Andrew Hawkins. It may only be 9 yards per catch, but the diminutive Hawkins has the talent and ability to be a big contributor in the short passing game. Hawkins' 62% career reception percentage will come in handy for rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel or even Brian Hoyer. I'm calling for Hawkins to lead the team in receptions among Cleveland wide receivers with 60-plus.
Dallas
The Cowboys might struggle to reach 6 wins this year, but they won't go down without a fight. Several players could have productive seasons worthy of weekly fantasy starts, namely Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams and DeMarco Murray. Murray figures to be the main rushing threat, but his biggest contribution may be his receiving ability. His reception totals have jumped from 26 to 34 to 53 last year. I would not be shocked if he reaches 60+ receptions, especially if Dallas finds themselves needing to pass as often as I think they will. Murray is on the verge of being one of the league's most dominant running backs. Throw in 60+ receptions and he becomes a gem of a fantasy RB. Mark it down, another Top 10 finish.
Denver
I have banged the drum on Cody Latimer even before the latest concussion news from Wes Welker has appeared. If Welker misses time, Latimer flat out will replace him in the lineup. It's not even week one yet and we're already concerned about Welker missing time. This is huge news for the Cody Latimer fan club. Call me crazy, but I believe Latimer could see upwards of 50 catches and 5 touchdowns this year and that number could balloon quickly.
Detroit
Reggie Bush had 1,500+ total yards in 278 touches last year in his best season as a pro. That was also accomplished in 14 games. If he can stay healthy, he can improve on those numbers and be one of the best fantasy RBs to own. I have a feeling we are in for a huge year from Bush. It would not shock me in the least to see him in the Top 3 fantasy backs (in PPR) halfway through the season and potentially the entire season.
Green Bay
We know about Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and even Jarrett Boykin, but someone is going to have to catch passes from the tight end position this year. Enter Richard Rodgers (even spelled with a "d" like Aaron). The early indications suggest that Rodgers will be the starting tight end for week one. I can see a Rodgers to Rodgers for 400 yards and 4 scores this year. It's not a huge coming out party, but people need to know about this emerging tight end threat in Green Bay.
Houston
I'm predicting a down year from Arian Foster, yet again. I didn't like him last year and I don't like him this year. This prediciton goes two-fold. Foster struggles to return to his pre-2013 form and the Houston offense goes in the tank. Someone has to replace him - my money is on veteran Jonathan Grimes, but I just can't see Grimes or anyone really making an impact in an offense that could be incredibly inept. Foster may struggle even without an injury to slow him down. My advice - stay way from the Houston running game.
Indianapolis
After Houston, the Colts runinng game is on my short list of teams to stay away from. The Colts passing game, however is intriguing. I am not a fan of Pep Hamilton's offensive style, I think the Colts need to unleash Andrew Luck in a big way and let him make plays all over the field. The shift to a more pass-friendly NFL is exactly what Andrew Luck needs to be more fantasy dominant. The return of Reggie Wayne in this offense has me jacked up with anticipation, not only for Wayne to thrive, but for Luck as well. I think we finally see Luck exceed 23 touchdowns in a season and it might even eclipse 30. Wayne returns to form with another strong year (perhaps his last)? An absolute floor for Wayne is 60 receptions and 5 touchdowns. I would not be surprised to see him reach 70 and 7.
Jacksonville
I actually like Jacksonville to make some noise this year. And by that I mean, not picking in the Top 10 of the 2015 NFL Draft. I came away really impressed with Blake Bortles in the three preseason games I've seen so far. Jacksonville has named Chad Henne their starter, but if he struggles, he'll have a short leash with Bortles waiting in the wings. All told, I see Bortles starting more games than Henne and don't be shocked to see Marqise Lee have an impressive rookie year. He's not this year's Keenan Allen - but I can see him making a run for offensive rookie of the year.
Kansas City
The big player news for the Chiefs in the preseason has been the play of second year tight end Travis Kelce, who some compare his play to Rob Gronkowski. It's hard to imagine another Gronk stomping the fields in the NFL, but if there's anyone close, it's Kelce. His size, hands and physical aspects are Gronk-like and he's in a perfect situation to see a ton of looks in an offense devoid of down field playmakers not named Dwayne Bowe. My slightly bold predicition is 50 catches and 5 touchdowns. Could it be more? Yes. It could also be less. We know Andy Reid loves a good tight end in his offense and Kelce fits the bill. My money is on 50 and 5 with the possibility of even more.
Miami
I like the changes in store for the Dolphins offensive philosophy. I believe a faster paced offense with Tannehill under center will yield positive results not only from Tannehill, but also the receiving corps. Mike Wallace figures to be the team's leading receiver, but I also like Charles Clay to continue to see targets and I like the game of Jarvis Landry to eventually replace Brian Hartline as the second leading wide receiver on the team. Odell Beckham Jr may have all of the accolades coming out of LSU, but Landry is right behind him, despite having better numbers when the two played together. Landry has the talent to be a good receiver in the league and he also has the toughness and grit to stay there. I would not be shocked to see Landry get upwards of 40-50 catches this year as he eventually becomes a more common target in the offense.
Minnesota
I have a few predcitions for the 2014 Vikings. Adrian Peterson has never had more than 43 receptions in a season. I say he gets 50 in Norv Turner's offense. Cordarrelle Patterson is on the verge of big things in the league. He is starting to see more targets in the Vikings offense as they learn that getting him the ball leads to positive plays. Patterson has the skill set that I thought Josh Cribbs would eventually produce in the NFL that just never came to be. I'm calling for Patterson to score 10 times this year and 12 if we count returns.
New England
Get aboard the Shane Vereen bandwagon right now if you're not on it already. There are question marks in the Patriots running game. No RB in particular has emerged as a go-to threat, but look who's lurking in the wings as someone who can make plays when he touches the ball, Shane Vereen. Not only do I like Vereen as a receiving option out of the backfield, but I also believe he can be a threat as a rusher. Pencil me in for 125+ carries and 60 receptions for Vereen in a Top 10 finish in PPR leagues.
New Orleans
Every year I hear the Saints are going to run the ball more. Every year it just doesn't happen. Marques Colston has been a consistent receiving threat for years and I don't see that changing in 2014. I see 70 receptions and 7 touchdowns as his floor. Jimmy Graham will dominate the receiving game, but Colston will still be a major part of the offense, especially if teams key in on Graham as the player to defend.
NY Giants
Rashad Jennings will finish in the Top 20 and Rueben Randle will have a minimum of six touchdowns as the Giants new end zone threat. Playing in the NFC East should yield plenty of good fantasy options this year. Opposing defenses are predicted to be among the worst in the league, which is good news for fantasy players on NYG, DAL, PHI and WAS. Randle has 9 touchdowns on 60 career receptions. I'd gladly take that number if given to me this year. Now that he is in the lineup opposite Victor Cruz, his targets and reception totals should increase. Could we see 10 touchdowns? Possibly. Eli Manning may have to throw 700 times, but it's possible.
NY Jets
Chris Johnson's streak of totaling 1,400 yards in every season in the league is in serious danger this year. He either fizzles out as a starting fantasy RB or is completely rejuvenated in New York. I am siding with former. In fact, the only positive I can find from a fantasy perspective is Eric Decker by default catching 50 passes and 5 touchdowns. Anything more is something I'll be shocked to see. Jace Amaro has started to look like an NFL tight end, but I don't see him being fantasy relevant. Not yet. My advice, stay away from the Jets this year.
Oakland
Derek Carr becomes starter before week 8 and goes on to have an uninspiring rookie year with moments of brilliance to keep people wondering. James Jones was predcited to be the team's leading receiver and I believe that will stand true. I don't exactly love him as a fantasy option, but he'll be a serviceable flex option from time to time. Oakland just doesn't move the needle for me. Matt Schaub, Derek Carr, Maurice Jones-Drew or anyone else isn't on my fantasy radar.
Philadelphia
I think you have to look at the Eagles 2014 outlook as how far can Chip Kelly's offense take them. There is potential for a big year, but there is also potential for Nick Foles to struggle in his second year in the league. Is it possible to have both? Could the Eagles struggle and have good production? In the NFC Least it's definitely a possibility. Either way, I think Philadelphia is poised to have a lot of production from their receiving corps with Zach Ertz standing out as the primary source of fantasy value. Jeremy Maclin, Riley Cooper and Jordan Matthews will cancel each other out. I don't see either with more than 60 receptions and 5 touchdowns. Ertz on the other hand could surpass 60 catches and 6 touchdowns and emerge as a Top 6-8 fantasy tight end.
Pittsburgh
I have banged the drum on Heath Miller as a player to target in later rounds. He is finally fully healthy (knee) and should be a big contributor on offense for the Steelers. I'm going as far as saying Miller will be second on the team in targets, receptions and receiving touchdowns behind Antonio Brown. Ben Roethlisberger trusts his veteran tight end and will utlize him often. 60 catches and 6 touchdowns is not that far-fetched in the Steelers fast paced offense. I don't think Markus Wheaton and Roethlisberger have established that trusting bond yet that and we know Miller and Ben have it.
San Diego
Ladarius Green continues to emerge as a TE2 or low end TE1 fantasy threat and Antonio Gates doesn't quite ride off into the sunset just yet. I can see Gates being a big part of the offense in the red zone, where he can use his shielding skills to make space for him to catch a lot of end zone targets. I would not be surprised to see him reach 6 touchdowns this year. Where I see him lacking is his ability to get open between the 20's, but that's where Green can be a threat. If the Chargers utilize both tight ends as weapons to confuse defenses, they will be in good shape to get the ball to Keenan Allen. If the tight ends struggle, so will Allen and so will the Chargers offense in general. If all goes as planned, Allen will have 70+ catches and Green and Gates will be around the 40-45 range apiece.
Seattle
As long as the Seahawks defense is keeping opponents from scoring, the Seattle offense will be a run-oriented, ball-controlled attack with little variation in the passing game. In other words, I don't see Seattle needing to resort to the passing game to keep pace with their opponents. Having said that, Russell Wilson is a heck of a player that I can see continuing to become a better quarterback. Eventually the defense is going to wear down and not be as good as the 2012-2013 teams. When that day comes is the day I become a HUGE Russell Wilson fan for fantasy purposes. My predicition for this year - Seattle runs Marshawn Lynch into the ground, because they want to get as much out of him as they can. They have plans for the future in Christine Michael, so why not maximize their investment in Lynch while they can. Lynch has another highly productive year with 280+ carries and 12+ touchdowns in his last big fantasy year.
San Francisco
The 49ers, like the Seahawks are all about the running game. Insert Frank Gore into Marshawn Lynch's role and you have my 49ers predicition, with a slight lean towards less production. I do think Carlos Hyde will see a good share of carries this year and that could eat into Gore's number totals. In the same breath, Frank Gore never dies and should see the majority of the 49ers carries. Unlike Lynch, Gore's touchdown runs from inside the five yard line can and likely will decline. When it's all said and done, Gore should have his ninth consecutive Top 20 finish, but it will be close.
St. Louis
Zac Stacy may not be the most talented runner in the league, but he'll get plenty of chances and touches where his sheer volume will yield good fantasy production. I am not sold on Kenny Britt or Brian Quick to emerge as big play makers for the Rams this year, but one of them will surprise me - I just don't know which one. Jared Cook also has the potential to be a surprise. Tavon Austin has not showed me enough as a down field threat to be someone I am targeting as a fantasy option. He could turn out to be quite a game changer, but I'm not aboard that train just yet. The big winner for the Rams in my opinion is Stacy. I think 260+ carries and 40 receptions is not impossible. That would most definitely result in a Top 15 finish, if not higher.
Tampa Bay
Doug Martin will rise again and be one of the bigger fantasy RB surprises this year. I am on board with him reaching 250+ carries and 35+ receptions. Martin doesn't have any immediate threats to steal away many carries and now with the addition of Guard Logan Mankins, the offensive line is poised to give Martin better results. I am also very interested in Mike Evans this year to potentially cancel out Vincent Jackson's numbers. Can they both be heavily targeted? That's my thinking. Last year Jackson finished 14th and dominated targets by a wide margin. I don't see that happening again this year with the presence of rookie WR Mike Evans. If Evans has as good a year as I think he will, Jackson will finish outside the Top 20 and not be that far from Evans in the final rankings.
Tennessee
The popular fantasy story surrounding the Titans this year is not the presence of rookie RB (and first RB selected in the draft) Bishop Sankey, but the emergence of Justin Hunter as a viable receiving threat. Hunter has looked dominant especially in the red zone for the Titans this preseason. I fully expect that to continue in the regular season. Hunter could reach 8+ touchdowns this year and be one of the bigger surprises among fantasy wide receivers. If he can continue to emerge and rack up targets, he'll be the WR to have on Tennessee, not Kendall Wright. I don't think Wright will disappear, but I don't see another 90-catch season in his future. Reaching 80 might even be a task, especially if Hunter becomes the go-to option.
Washington
I am interested in the Washington core of offensive players, mainly because they are in the NFC East, but also because of the presence of offensive-minded Head Coach Jay Gruden. Robert Griffin scares me as someone who can last an entire season. He also isn't exactly one to be a pocket passer that Gruden so desperately wants. Still, Griffin isn't going anywhere as the starter in Washington and I do think both Gruden and Griffin will need to adjust in order for the offense click. The receiving corps has three strong targets in Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed. All three should have excellent numbers, especially with Alfreed Morris being a non-factor as a receiving option. The slightly bold predicition is that Griffin, Garcon and Reed finish inside the Top 10 for their positions. The NFC East is a hotbed for fantasy production this year. It's possible that the point total average in games with two NFC East teams is 50+ points or more.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com
