RELATED: See this look at Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End.

The wide receiver is often referenced as the skill position with the longest shelf life in dynasty. Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase are the arguable WR1 and WR2 of dynasty, both 25 years old. We can expect to have WR1 production over the next four years. When should we expect to see a decline?

This article will study 15 wide receivers from different eras of the NFL and note their production from age 29 through their age-out season. I will define an age-out season as the age when the wide receiver stopped producing similar to their individual historical production per season. Here is Andre Johnson’s for example. The bottom row is the identified age-out season:

His age-out season occurred when he was 34, a decline relative to historical production. This article was written in 2025 and utilizes ages at the time. The term elite is thrown around often, and in selected cases, it is not warranted. The 15 wide receivers identified already are or have the potential to be in the Hall of Fame.

Aging Wide Receivers in Fantasy & Dynasty Football

If you play dynasty, you may want to trade an asset away as it ages to secure value in the form of draft capital or younger, proven assets. In season-long leagues, you may exercise caution with an aging wide receiver. The potential age cliff looms in the shadow of decision-making. Below are wide receivers entering, or in, the questionable territory being examined. They are not being labeled as elite, although they can be:

• Terry McLaurin (29)
• Chris Godwin (29)
• Courtland Sutton (29)
• Calvin Ridley (30)
• Tyreek Hill (31)
• Cooper Kupp (31)
• Stefon Diggs (31)

Our own Adam Harstad did a study on 30 years of fantasy history for wide receivers in 2015; this looked at expected years remaining and aging at the position. My study is looking at 15 confirmed top-tier players at the position. Let’s look at these wide receivers and their careers, starting with their age-29 season until their identified age-out season. The total games played was utilized to find the average season statistics per 17-game season:

The averages of these 15 wide receivers would garner 266 fantasy points per season. I assumed PPR scoring with no bonuses. Since 2013, this finish would be good for: WR13, WR10, WR12, WR6, WR4, WR11, WR6, WR8, WR9, WR8, WR10, and WR8 – an average finish of WR8.8.

• 100% over 50 games played
• 80% over 75 games
• 47% over 100 games
• 33% over 125 games
• Low age of 33
• High age of 42
  • 37 without the anomaly of Jerry Rice

The averages do not indicate a wide receiver will hit the threshold each season. The averages provide a baseline to determine 1) to trade for in dynasty or 2) draft in seasonlong leagues with elite aging wide receivers. Environmental factors like scheme, injuries, and quarterback play should be examined. If a wide receiver has a significant injury, this may be sufficient reasoning to not expect their top-level play to continue. 

The age-out season found is 35.8 years old. The wide receivers averaged 104 games played, with a low of 59 and a high of 194. To be safe, we can utilize the lowest number of games played and still understand there are 3.47 additional seasons of production to be accounted for. The average number of seasons played is 6.47, a high of 9.05 when not accounting for Rice’s 12.35 additional seasons (17-game pace).

Aging Elite Wide Receivers – Dynasty & Fantasy Football

It is important to note this study was done on the top-tier players at the position. High-level talent displayed the ability to play into their 30s, with the average age-out season being 35.9 years old. It is safe to assume we will get borderline WR1 production based on the results of this analysis for an additional 3.47 seasons from the start of their age 29 season. There is potential within the range of outcomes to produce further into their mid-to-late 30s. It will be important to understand if an aging wide receiver has consistently produced throughout their careers and not a recent one-hit-wonder. In dynasty, you may hold onto a proven talent as they accumulate the aging wide receiver moniker. In season-long leagues, you should use the data found as an edge for mid-to-late round selections.

A dynasty rebuilding team is warranted to trade away a top-tier producing wide receiver if they are older. It will be important to be cautious when trading a player just because of the perceived notion of players hitting the age cliff. Your normal receiver will hit the age cliff, not necessarily the greats. Hypothetically, trading away Justin Jefferson at age 29 may not be a promising idea when he has a chance to be a legend. Trading away Courtland Sutton, who will be 29 for the 2025 season, is a better example of a player to trade away because they are getting older. Is Sutton really going to be a legend? A contending team would utilize his services more.

It will be important to analyze variables associated with a wide receiver who is beyond age 29. We cannot determine any future injuries, trades, scheme and roster changes, or retirements. We can only understand what we know at the current time. The underlying factor for wide receivers is whether they are elite or not. It certainly helps when an aging wide receiver is in the correct environment. Terrell Owens went to the Dallas Cowboys at age 33 to play with Tony Romo. Dallas has historically had a tendency to be a high-powered offense and pass the ball. Owens delivered for three seasons, averaging 143.7 targets, 78.3 receptions, 1,195.7 yards, and 12.7 touchdowns per season. The combination of Romo, Owens, and a high-volume offense is a recipe for success. On the contrary, Larry Fitzgerald had 112 targets but only 69 receptions with Josh Rosen under center in 2018. The surrounding environment will matter just as much as individual talent.

Elite Wide Receivers

Using historical receivers who defied the age apex does not necessarily translate to current players in dynasty and fantasy football. How do we really know which player will defy the age apex? My first thought is an elite wide receiver, I mean, that makes sense. There are reasons why the 15 aforementioned players played well into their 30s, with an average age-out season of 35.9. They are some of the best wide receivers to play the game. You definitely may be able to capitalize on value but how do you reciprocate the production? Remember, the aforementioned 15 wide receivers finished as the WR8.8 since 2015.

In recent memory, we have Adam Thielen, who has averaged 92.8 targets, 65.3 receptions, 735.7, and 7.5 touchdowns since his age-29 season. On the other hand, Mike Evans has averaged 124.3 targets, 76.7 receptions, 1,127.7 yards, and 10 touchdowns since his age-29 season. We need to know how to identify which wide receiver to target. There is a difference between an elite player versus a good player. The question to now be answered is, how do we know which wide receiver is elite? In other words, will they be a legend? I do not have the answer for you. But I do have the information needed to understand not every wide receiver warrants the age-cliff treatment.

If you enjoyed this article, I previously wrote one on tight ends and running backs. Check those out, too.