Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Setting the Market Before It's Set
As noted last week, I'm all in on best-ball drafts. I love them. I say this realizing you might not share in my enthusiasm -- especially this time of year. After all, we're heading into the first week of April. While the bulk of free agency is in our rearview mirror, moves are still coming, and the NFL Draft is more than three weeks away.
But that's what makes this moment valuable.
Early best ball isn't about building the perfect team -- it's about spotting mispriced talent before the market corrects. Even if you're not diving into the draft rooms yet, following current ADP trends -- and how they evolve -- is a powerful way to set baselines and sharpen projections.
That's the plan here. I'm comparing early best-ball ADP with Footballguys' 2025 Draft Projections to find where expectations and opportunities diverge.
Last week, we tackled quarterbacks. This week?
RB Values: Follow the Volume, Look For Discounts
Best ball shifts the RB strategy. No waivers, no trades, no start/sit decisions -- just spike weeks and survival.
But that doesn't mean best-ball results don't inform redraft. Certain truths apply across formats. Chief among them: Volume is king.
That said, we're not chasing just any volume. We want the right volume at the right price. Based on early Average Draft Position (ADP), Rounds 1 through 3 are packed with actionable opportunities.
I'll walk through each round, highlighting key names, comparing roles and projections, and explaining how I'm splitting the hairs between similarly priced backs. You might see things differently -- and that's okay. You're pretty smart.
The goal is to provide insight into my processes to help inform yours.
Let's dive in . . .
Round 1: Workhorses Vs. WR Stars: Are The RBs Worth It?
The list of running backs with first-round price tags is mostly what you'd expect:
- Saquon Barkley, RB1, ADP 2
- Bijan Robinson, RB2, ADP 3
- Jahmyr Gibbs, RB3, ADP 5
- Ashton Jeanty, RB4 ADP 12
Yes, Jeanty going at the tail end of the first stanza is a little surprising. Still, a quick look at the full Footballguys 2025 Underdog Average Draft Position data suggests drafters are high on this entire class (six rookies are being drafted among the first 36 running backs), but let's start breaking things down.
The Cream Of The Crop
_jpg)
As Profootballtalk.com's Michael David Smith recently reminded readers, Saquon Barkley had one of the best seasons ever by a running back. He rushed for 2,504 yards over the regular and postseasons, breaking the previous single-season record Terrell Davis held while leading his new team on its Super Bowl run. Though Barkley had a chance to take down Eric Dickerson's regular-season rushing title, the Eagles decided to rest their starters in their finale against Barkley's former team, the Giants.
Eagles GM Howie Roseman thinks it was the best season a running back has ever had. In fact, he took that a step further.
"In my opinion," Roseman said, "The best season for any skill position player in NFL history."
Along the way, Barkley racked up 351.3 fantasy points, the second most among all running backs. His 22 points per game, however, were the most in the league.
The question is, can he repeat it? And is he worth the first or second pick overall to find out?
Barkley had 482 touches last season. As ESPN.com's Mike Clay noted, that's the most a running back has handled since DeMarco Murray had 497 in 2014. All told, 15 running backs have hit 400 touches (including the playoffs), and only five of those repeated as top-5 fantasy producers the following year . . .
Arrow Pointing Up
As the Falcons' official website put it, "Bijan Robinson is good at football."
Atlanta heavily relied on Robinson in 2024 -- and he delivered.
His 365 touches ranked second in the league behind Barkley. But Robinson's usage increased over time. Per Clay, Robinson averaged 17.0 touches, 87.2 yards, and 13.5 fantasy points from Weeks 1 through 5. He was RB24 in points per game over that span. From Week 6 on, Robinson averaged 23.3 touches, 120.9 yards, and 22.7 fantasy points -- the highest per-game average of any running back.
The Barkley model is replicable for Robinson. He's proven he can handle the workload, and the third-year man has shown us the upside that comes with it . . .
The X Factor
Lions coach Dan Campbell described Jahmyr Gibbs as Detroit's "X factor." This came after the former first-round pick averaged 6.4 yards per touch in 2024, the most yards by any player with at least 300 touches in a season since Marshall Faulk in 2000.
In addition to becoming the first Lions player to lead the NFL in scrimmage touchdowns (20) since Barry Sanders in 1991 (17) while setting a single-season franchise record for TDs, Gibbs finished the season as the fantasy's RB1 overall with 21.5 points per game.
Barkley finished with a higher per-game average (22.0 points per game), but a big Week 18 effort left Gibbs with 364.9 total points, well ahead of the former Giant . . .
The New Kid
Per the Footballguys 2025 Rookie Draft Guide, Ashton Jeanty enters the league as a Heisman finalist with elite tackle-breaking skills and 36 runs of 15-plus yards last season, the best in the FBS.
He excelled in both zone and gap schemes at Boise State. His draft stock could rise further once we know his NFL destination and scheme fit. For now, his versatility makes him Round 1-worthy in best-ball -- though I'd prefer him in Round 2.
The Right Pick Is . . .
For me, Robinson is the ideal play in this round.
As Clay put it, "Entering his age-23 campaign and working in an Atlanta offense that was third-run-heaviest in the league last season, Robinson is primed for a huge statistical season."
No. I won't be talking anybody out of drafting Barkley. I will, however, be mindful of the fact that of those five 400-plus touch players who repeated as top-5 scorers, four were 25 years old or younger. Barkley will be 28 this coming season.
Meanwhile, Gibbs was RB5 while playing alongside David Montgomery over the first 14 weeks. The second-year man averaged an impressive 18 points per game over that span. So, I'm fine drafting Gibbs aggressively, but there's an argument to be made that a healthy Montgomery, who was RB9 over the 14 games before spraining his MCL last season, is a better value.
Montgomery is being drafted in Round 7 as RB21, and I'm a bit concerned about Gibbs duplicating that 20-touchdown output . . .
I'll want exposure to Jeanty -- he'll be a good player -- but I'm likely to look for opportunities if and when he slides into the next round.
That said, there's a lot of proven talent to like there . . .
Round 2: Elite Volume At Discount Prices
If we're chasing anticipated volume, there's no shortage here. And the second-round discount matters, given the number of high-end receiving assets available in Round 1. The list is Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brian Thomas Jr., and Malik Nabers.
Given those candidates, the argument for waiting on running back is strong. The list of running backs likely to be available is also strong.
Here's the breakdown, along with their ADP:
- De'Von Achane, RB5, ADP 13
- Christian McCaffrey, RB6, ADP 14
- Derrick Henry, RB7, ADP 15
- Jonathan Taylor, RB8, ADP 20
- Bucky Irving, RB9, ADP 22
- Josh Jacobs, RB10, ADP 24
I have two favorites in this group but acknowledge all of them are viable.
The Proven Producer
PFT's Myles Simmons wrote, "Derrick Henry and the Ravens proved to be a match made in football heaven in 2024," as the veteran running back rushed for 1,921 yards with 16 touchdowns. In his press conference at the scouting combine, General Manager Eric DeCosta said that he's expecting Henry to be the same kind of productive in 2025.
"Derrick is just a phenomenal worker," DeCosta said. "He does everything the right way, the way that he practices, the way that he takes care of his body, his mentality on the field . . . He's freakishly talented . . . His combination of size and speed . . . I would expect his successes last year to continue this year."
Henry became the first player in NFL history with multiple seasons of 1,900-plus rush yards. In addition, he is now tied with Hall of Famer Jim Brown for sixth all-time in career rushing touchdowns with 106.
The underlying numbers are equally impressive.
Henry's 1,137 yards after contact were more than all but eight running backs recorded overall -- before contact, after contact, or with no contact. He led the lead with 42 broken tackles during the season. The 31-year-old 247-pounder also recorded two of the 20 fastest speeds on runs this season. He hit 21.72 mph on an 81-yard run against the Buccaneers in Week 7 and 21.46 mph on a 51-yard Week 5 run in Cincinnati.
Henry finished the season as RB4 with 19.3 fantasy points per game. He's now finished in the top 5 at his position in five of the last six seasons . . .
When It Mattered Most
Indianapolis leaned heavily on their bell cow back with high-volume games down the stretch, watching him average 150 rushing yards on 27.6 carries per contest in their last three outings. In Week 18, they gave Taylor 34 carries and watched him rumble for 177 yards and a touchdown.
As NFL.com suggested, sheer volume alone can produce these numbers. Still, Taylor's consistency and ability to break through to the second level adds upside.
That's great news for a Colts team entering 2025 with instability at quarterback.
As for the fantasy angle here, Taylor finished the year as RB13, but he was RB2 over the final three weeks of the season . . .
What About The Rest?
There are arguments for the others, so let's quickly thread those needles:
Achane benefited from 87 receiving targets, the second-most among RBs; it's fair to wonder if rebounds by Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa are potentially limiting factors. Beyond that, as Footballguy Dave Kluge has pointed out, Achane's per-touch efficiency nosedived last year, and Miami's offense took a step back.
McCaffrey's 272 carries in 16 games in 2023 tied for second-most in the NFL. His 17 carries per game ranked fourth in the league. Add in 67 catches, and he got 339 turns to rack up fantasy points that season. He made the most of his opportunities. Again, the upside is there. And this is a reasonable price if you believe he can regain past form. But age and injury concerns add some risk here.
Irving led the Bucs in rushing with 1,122 yards and eight TDs, topping all rookies. But his usage was inconsistent. Rachaad White is the best pass protector and receiver among Bucs running backs, earning him a key role. In addition, local observers believe Sean Tucker deserves more chances.
Jacobs racked up more than 1,600 yards from scrimmage, but his fantasy totals benefited greatly from a career-high 15 touchdowns. Touchdowns are the least sticky of all fantasy statistics . . .
Round 3: Risk Meets Reward
Round three features three backs that have delivered elite seasons within the past two years.
- Breece Hall, RB11, ADP 29
- Kyren Williams, RB12, ADP 31
- Chase Brown, RB13, ADP 36
The Riskiest?
Hall, who will turn 24 in May, has the makeup to be one of the league's top three-down backs. Since his arrival, he's the only running back in the league to have at least 100 receiving yards in multiple games. His five games with at least 150 scrimmage yards are the fifth most for a running back, and his four games with at least 50 rushing and 50 receiving yards are tied for the third most in the league.
His receiving work bolstered Hall's fantasy stock. His 90 targets in 2023 led all running backs.
But as fantasy investors who burned an early first-round pick to secure his services last summer will tell you, Hall was a massive disappointment in 2024.
He finished with 1,359 scrimmage yards (14th among running backs) and eight touchdowns. He ran for 876 yards, 54.8 yards per game, in 2024. His receptions fell to 57 on 74 targets. His RB16 finish fell far short of his RB3 Average Draft Position (ADP) last summer when he was selected with the sixth pick overall . . .
The Safest?
Williams broke out over the past two seasons and became one of the best at his position. He ran the ball 316 times for 1,299 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2024, which set new career highs after he posted 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns in 12 games during the 2023 campaign. He added 66 receptions for 388 yards and six more touchdowns over those two years.
Accounting for nearly 81 percent of the Rams' rushing attempts by running backs last year, Williams also proved to be one of the best tackle-breakers in the league this past season. While he stands at just 5-9 and 202 pounds, Williams finished top-10 in broken tackles and missed tackles forced, according to Pro Football Focus. While Williams wasn't at the peak of either category, he was one of only nine running backs to make the top 10 in both lists (Henry, Barkley, Jacobs, Robinson, and Gibbs were also included).
The Rams offense goes through quarterback Matthew Stafford, but Williams is a huge part of the ground game. The Rams ran the ball 450 times, which was dead-center in the NFL, tied with the Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans for 16th in the league . . .
The Most Interesting?
At the beginning of the 2024 season, Brown split reps with Zack Moss, a free-agent addition made to help replace Mixon. However, Brown bore the brunt of the workload once Moss went on injured reserve on Nov. 5 with a neck injury. In Week 9, the first week without Moss, Brown got 100 percent of the running back touches for the Bengals, carrying the ball 27 times for 120 yards with five receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown.
It was a sign of things to come.
Until he missed the last game of the season, Brown was on the field at least 80 percent of the time and up to 98.5 percent (Week 15 against Cleveland).
The playing time translated well, as Brown finished 10th in points among running backs in the fantasy season. From Weeks 4 through 17 (he didn't play Week 18), Brown emerged as a league-winning asset as he posted RB6 numbers.
That's great.
It's downright extraordinary when you realize that heading into the season, Brown was drafted as RB37 with the 105th pick overall . . .
The Right Answer? Always Take The Value
I'm not against taking a chance on a Hall rebound, but . . . Even assuming he's back to full speed this season, fantasy managers will have to deal with various levels of uncertainty in New York -- a new front office, coaching staff, and signal caller. While I don't believe a running quarterback like Justin Fields is a limiting factor, the presence of second-year men Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis was that at times last year. And the team's offensive line wasn't great. According to Footballguy Matt Bitonti's final 2024 Offensive Line Rankings, the Jets ranked 23rd as a run-blocking unit.
Still, Hall's early-Round 3 ADP is an issue as long as Williams and Brown are available later in the round.
If they are, with players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson, Trey McBride, DJ Moore, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson all in this price range, I'd be more likely to dip into that pool than roll with Hall earlier in Round 3.
But if I'm drafting in the second half of the round, Williams or Brown would be better -- and Brown might be ideal.
The Bengals had the fifth-highest-scoring offense throughout the 2024 season, and they just retained Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Expecting a significant slowdown would be overthinking it. I feel the same about Brown's workload -- at least until and unless we get information to the contrary.
Rest assured, I'll be watching for that.
But until then, landing Brown at the tail-end of Round 3 feels like a win . . .
This And That: Later-Round Best-Ball Favorites
Of course, those of you going Zero or Hero running back will use the later rounds to build your depth. We'll have to deal with some ambiguous backfields as we get deeper into the draft, but there are great options throughout. Whether you're spending on other positions early or building high-end backfield depth late, these are the backs I'll be targeting until the market catches up.
Let's Cook In Round 4
Running back James Cook and Buffalo's designed-running game with Josh Allen as a wildcard threat created what ESPN's Ben Solak calls "a clock-chewing, stick-moving beast in Buffalo." Rookie Ray Davis and Ty Johnson contributed, but Cook had a remarkable 2024 season -- both NFL and fantasy-wise.
He logged 207 carries for 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns, adding 32 receptions for 258 yards and two more scores. His 18 total touchdowns tied Henry for second-most in the NFL.
Even with Allen siphoning goal-line work, Cook showed breakaway potential with four rushing TDs of 40-plus yards -- the most in a season by a Bills ball carrier.
It paid off for fantasy managers, as Cook finished as RB9 with 16.7 points per game. Better still, he was RB3 during the all-important Weeks 15-17 stretch, averaging 21.7 points.
You can currently draft him as RB14 at the top of Round 4. That's substantial value . . .
Hubbard's Cupboard Fully Stocked In Round 5
The Panthers are committed to the run, adding former Cowboy Rico Dowdle on a one-year deal to bolster the backfield.
Still, this is Chuba Hubbard's show.
Hubbard thrived under Dave Canales, and things could get even better with continuity in the scheme.
And they were good last year. With rookie Jonathon Brooks recovering from an ACL tear last season, Hubbard set career highs in attempts (250), yards (1,195), touchdowns (10), and receptions (43), tacking on 171 receiving yards and a score in 15 starts. That was good for RB13 on a per-game basis, with 16.5 fantasy points per game.
The performance earned Hubbard a four-year extension -- a move that looked even wiser after Brooks re-tore his ACL, an injury likely to cost him all of 2025.
Dowdle, 26, had a breakout 2024 with 1,079 rushing yards, two TDs, and 39 catches for 249 yards and three more scores. He's a solid Miles Sanders replacement.
But Hubbard's the guy -- and his RB17 ADP (52nd overall) makes him an irresistible Round 5 target . . .
Walker Worth Running After Later In Round 5
Seattle finished 28th in rushing in 2024, prompting the firing of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Enter Klint Kubiak, fresh off reviving Alvin Kamara in New Orleans, where the veteran halfback racked up 1,493 scrimmage yards.
Kubiak is fired up about Ken Walker III. "Our identity is going to be a running team," he said. "We're going to get the ball to our best runners -- and that's [Walker]."
Walker missed six games last year but still averaged 16.5 points per game -- 12th among RBs -- despite finishing as RB27 overall. He's being drafted as RB18 with the 59th pick.
Zach Charbonnet is still around, but Clay pointed out the split wasn't close when both played. In 11 games together, Walker handled 68 percent of carries and 14 percent of targets, compared to Charbonnet's 19 percent and 8 percent. Charbonnet averaged 6.5 fantasy points per game in those weeks.
Assuming Seattle can improve up front (Bitonti ranked their offensive line as 30th last year), a healthy Walker could be a top-10 back.
In a run-centric offense, he has league-winning upside . . .
Is Conner Still The One?
All eyes are on how the Cardinals plan to divide carries between 30-year-old James Conner and second-year man Trey Benson.
Conner had 236 carries to Benson's 63 last year, earning a two-year extension after a career-best 1,094 rushing yards. He finished as RB11 in fantasy.
OC Drew Petzing and HC Jonathan Gannon hinted at a "two No. 1 backs" approach, but NBC Sports' Matthew Berry isn't convinced.
"The Cards love Benson," Berry noted after Combine chatter, "but team sources insist Conner remains the trusted bell cow -- especially late in games."
Fantasy drafters may be overlooking that. Conner's current ADP is RB22 in late Round 6 . . .
Jones-ing For More After Massing 2024
Aaron Jones thrived in his first year with Minnesota, setting career highs in touches (306), carries (255), and offensive snaps (700) while playing all 17 games. Despite battling hip, rib, and quad injuries, Jones posted 1,138 rushing yards and 1,546 scrimmage yards -- both top-tier numbers -- and scored seven total TDs.
He finished 2024 as RB12 overall and RB19 on a per-game basis (14.6 PPR).
Footballguys projects him as RB16 with 15 PPG in 2025, yet his current ADP is RB27 (Round 7). Even with Jordan Mason on hand, Jones looks undervalued after finishing as RB12 last year . . .
Clear Path to Workload In Better Circumstances
Najee Harris wasn't flashy in Pittsburgh, but he was reliable.
He has topped 1,000 rushing yards with at least six TDs in every season as a pro.
Now in L.A. with the Chargers, he gets a top-10 offensive line (per Bitonti) and a run-heavy scheme under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman. He also gets the best quarterback of his career, Justin Herbert.
And barring a surprise addition, there's little backfield competition.
He's going as RB26 in late Round 7 and is strong bet to outperform that price . . .
A Final Thought Here
Whether you're spending early capital on bell cows or stacking upside late, early best-ball drafts offer a clear lens into how fantasy values are forming -- and how they might shift as the news cycle kicks into gear.
Watch the volume, spot the inefficiencies, and build rosters that can survive chaos. That's the play . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
_jpg)
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of stories. I like to use this spot to encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good: Help Is On The Way
Last week, I lamented the Patriots' failure to add significantly to Drake Maye's supporting cast. It was reported that team officials were "exceedingly wary of the negative impact a demanding veteran wideout could have on Maye," which explained their half-hearted effort to pursue a trade for DK Metcalf or sign Davante Adams.
Then Stefon Diggs visited the team. It seemed odd if the goal was avoiding the addition of a "demanding veteran wideout" to the mix.
And if the visit seemed odd, signing Diggs to a three-year, $69 million contract with $26 million guaranteed was downright puzzling.
But that's precisely what happened.
Even if the outside world wonders if Diggs is a good fit, head coach Mike Vrabel has no doubts.
Coach Vrabel on what the addition of Stefon Diggs means for the Patriots pic.twitter.com/AMgQJYbVP1
— Green Light with Chris Long (@greenlight) March 27, 2025
How the Maye-Diggs relationship develops will be one of the Patriots' more compelling storylines. When the two started following each other on Instagram this week, it provided a public glimpse of their steps to begin forming a bond. It was a good start.
We'll be watching for more, but if they click on the field, Maye gains a No. 1-caliber pass catcher who wins with elite route-running ability, and a top-20 fantasy finish for Diggs isn't out of the question . . .
The Bad: Early Retirement?
Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua does not want a long NFL career. Nacua, who will turn 24 in May, said on the Join The Lobby podcast that he will retire when he's 30.
"I'm 23 right now, I'm going into Year 3 -- it wouldn't even be 10 years," Nacua said via USA Today. "It'd be maybe seven or eight. I think of Aaron Donald, to go out at the top, I think it would be super cool."
A 2023 fifth-round pick of the Rams, Nacua is going into his third NFL season. He'll be 30 in his ninth NFL season.
Nacua has plenty of time to change his mind, but for now, he doesn't think he'll be around long . . .
The Ugly: Keep Your Nose Clean -- But Don't Wipe It
The NFL released a statement on Wednesday that "any violent gesture" by a player, which includes the "nose wipe" gesture, will result in a 15-yard penalty. The league also included throat slashes and simulating firing or brandishing a gun as examples of offensive actions that officials could flag.
According to Profootballtalk.com, "The nose wipe is a gang sign associated with the Bloods, indicating someone is untrustworthy."
The change puts Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb in a bind, as he commonly pulls out that celebration after a big reception.
SOMEONE think of the CHILDREN pic.twitter.com/ouaJwwyby7
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) March 26, 2025
However, Lamb insists that he has other celebrations in his arsenal.
smh, i have plenty in mind?. https://t.co/rn0OliWbb4
— CeeDee Lamb (@_CeeDeeThree) March 26, 2025
This probably isn't top of mind for most fantasy investors, but Lamb has been using the nose wipe since he was drafted in 2020 and uses it often. If he can't break the habit quickly, things could get ugly -- 15 yards at a time . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. First-time readers will be pleased to learn you're only scratching the surface of what's available at Footballguys. We're hard at work year-round to help our subscribers gain an edge on the competition.
In addition to a full range of interesting strategy and news articles, our real-time Player Movement Tracker and Fantasy Outlooks landing page are available now. We also released Version 2 of our Footballguys 2025 Rookie Draft Guide. Download it for free now. Our 2025 Player Projections and Preseason Draft Rankings are up and running, too.
Remember: It's never too early to start, so head back in two weeks (wish me a happy vacation) for another edition of the Fantasy Notebook.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can catch Harris' "On The Hotseat" every Tuesday on the Footballguys Audible channel and listen to him during the season on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.