QB Dominoes Are Falling

Before free agency officially gets underway, we've already had a few key quarterback dominoes fall into place:

• The Falcons claim they have no intention of releasing or trading Kirk Cousins (ATL).
• Matthew Stafford stays with the Rams (LAR).
• Geno Smith is traded from Seattle to Las Vegas (LV).
• Derek Carr stays with the Saints (NO).

I'm sure I'm not the only one who side-eyes the Falcons' stance on Cousins; that feels like (ineffective) posturing. When push comes to shove, they'll likely move him on or before the NFL draft.

This leaves the following QB situations unanswered:

• Cleveland Browns (CLE): Deshaun Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson are under contract. Watson is likely out for the year (Achilles injury). The Browns have $4 million in effective cap space and pick 2nd (1.02) in the draft.
• Minnesota Vikings (MIN): J.J. McCarthy is under contract. The Vikings have $61 million in effective cap space and pick 24th (1.24) in the draft.
• New York Giants (NYG): Tommy DeVito is under contract. The Giants have $38 million in effective cap space and pick 3rd (1.03) in the draft.
• New York Jets (NYJ): Tyrod Taylor and Jordan Travis are under contract. The Jets have $46 million in effective cap space and pick 7th (1.07) in the draft.
• Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT): No quarterbacks are currently under contract. The Steelers have $61 million in effective cap space and pick 21st (1.21) in the draft.
• Seattle Seahawks (SEA): Sam Howell and Jaren Hall are under contract. The Seahawks have $59 million in effective cap space and pick 18th (1.18) in the draft.
• Tennessee Titans (TEN): Will Levis is under contract. The Titans have $52 million in effective cap space and pick first overall (1.01).

This gives us seven situations that need resolution, at minimum. Here are the remaining viable solutions:

Free Agents

• Sam Darnold: Almost certainly the top remaining option given his age (28) and recent season in Minnesota. The Geno Smith trade has most expecting Darnold to reunite with Klint Kubiak in Seattle on a significant, multi-year deal. 
  
  
  • Most likely landing spot: Seattle Seahawks
  • Dark horse landing spot: Pittsburgh Steelers
• Justin Fields: Fields has been the epitome of up-and-down thus far in his career. However, given his pedigree, starting experience, and age (26), he's likely one of the better options if signed to a team-friendly, incentive-laden contract. 
  
  
  • Most likely landing spot: Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Dark horse landing spot: Indianapolis Colts
• Russell Wilson: There's a significant drop-off here. Any team signing Wilson likely also needs to draft a potential starter for 2026-2027. 
  
  
  • Most likely landing spot: Cleveland Browns
  • Dark horse landing spot: New York Giants
• Aaron Rodgers: Signing Rodgers brings considerable drama, and few franchises should consider him unless they're genuinely one veteran quarterback away from legitimate Super Bowl contention. Personally, I wouldn't sign him, but some team will give him another chance. The buzz surrounds the Giants, and there is some logic in the Vikings if they want to give McCarthy another season of development. 
  
  
  • Most likely landing spot: New York Giants
  • Dark horse landing spot: Minnesota Vikings
• Daniel Jones: It's such a weak free agent group that we cannot rule out Daniel Jones figuring into a team's plan, particularly if they think he's capable of a reclamation project similar to what we've seen from Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay) and Sam Darnold (Minnesota) in recent seasons. 
  
  
  • Most likely landing spot: Minnesota Vikings
  • Dark horse landing spot: Indianapolis Colts

Rookies

• Cameron Ward
• Shedeur Sanders
• Jaxson Dart
• Jalen Milroe
• Tyler Shough
• Kyle McCord

Doing simple math, seven teams still don't have a starter, and only five free-agent veterans make sense as starters (with four of them hardly slam dunks). Thus, we can't rule out three or four teams starting a rookie, regardless of opinions about this rookie class.

I'm assuming that either Ward or Sanders land with the Tennessee Titans. Where will Shedeur Sanders land? There was talk during the Combine that he was assured by multiple teams, including the New York Giants, that they would draft him if he was still on the board. A few other teams need to seriously consider drafting a rookie, even if they bring in a veteran stopgap. The only QB-needy team we haven't mentioned yet is the New York Jets, who could justify drafting whichever QB3 they prefer (likely Dart or Milroe) and starting Tyrod Taylor in Week 1.

I'm sure it won't all work out as simply as I laid it out, but we can be sure that at least a few teams will be dangerously undermanned at the quarterback position unless this rookie class is markedly better than draft analysts expect.