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Prop Talk is Footballguys' leading NFL player props weekly article. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections --as well as my insights-- to understand whether a player will go over or under their weekly player prop number to help you win some money.
Let's dive right into some Divisional Round NFL player props.
Divisional Round NFL Player Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL player prop lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Patrick Mahomes II Over/Under 23.5 Rushing Yards (DraftKings)
People will say that Mahomes has lost his true competitive edge because the statistics weren't there in 2024. Setting aside the fact that this is his worst passing statistical season apart from when he played one game in 2017, his rushing numbers (307 yards on 58 carries for 2 touchdowns) are his lowest numbers across the board since 2020. It's a fair argument.
However, Mahomes has been an entirely different animal when the lights come on for postseason play. He quite simply elevates his game in the playoffs, and I expect the same for him in a matchup against the Houston Texans, where he should have many advantages.
Let's put aside what happened with Justin Herbert in last week's game against the Texans. The Chargers had zero room to run, and Herbert probably just didn't see the point once the score started piling up. Despite allowing the sixth-fewest carries per game to opposing quarterbacks, the Texans defense allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, with 3.5 carries per game for 23.5 yards.
That comes out to 6.7 yards per carry, and when you factor in that throughout his postseason career, Mahomes has averaged five carries per game (90 in 18 games). This number should be closer to 30 because 33.5 is massive compared to 23.5.
Mahomes has hit this over in half of his career postseason games, and with Houston's pass rush breaking up the pocket, we should see Mahomes run quite a few times.
Pick: Mahomes OVER 23.5 Rush Yards (-115)
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over/Under 76.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
All hail the one true Sun God! No, but really.
St. Brown has been a terror this year for passing defenses despite only going over this number in five games. He constantly stretches the field out with his route running, allowing other receivers to easily get open for Jared Goff to hit them in stride, partly why Detroit has had this juggernaut offense all season long.
ARSB has been efficient against zone and man coverage, which is useful since the Commanders rank just about league average in running man and zone, per PFF. They struggle against man greatly, and with St. Brown's route running acumen, expect him to shine in single coverage.
I don't expect cornerback coverage to be much of an issue. St. Brown should avoid Marshon Lattimore, given Lattimore has never been one to travel into the slot where ARSB runs most of his routes.
At the end of the day, the Lions will not want to take this game lightly. The Commanders are adept at playing from behind, and while they are nin-point underdogs, expect them to keep this game competitive to where ARSB should continue to stay in the game plan the whole way through.
Pick: St. Brown OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115)