Before we begin the rankings, the most important strategy tip is to take strong positions on a group of 1-2 teams on each side of the bracket. Spreading your top 10 picks out on 6-7 teams is a losing strategy. At the end of your playoff fantasy draft, you want to see two or three potential matchups in the Super Bowl that should equal a high chance of winning for you. You might not be able to pick the exact teams that you want, but it is important to roll with the flow of the draft. If you wanted Josh Allen but had to settle for Lamar Jackson, then you are going to favor Ravens players over Bills for the rest of your draft. Much more than a typical fantasy draft, your early picks should dictate the middle and late selections.
A Note on Playoff Picks
Take a stand on the outcome of the playoff brackets with your picks. Some of these calls are 52/48, and how they break can greatly affect projecting the next round in the bracket. However, relying on small margins to make selections is the essence of what we do in fantasy football.
Wild Card Picks in Order of Confidence
High Confidence
- Baltimore over Pittsburgh
These two teams just played in Week 17 with a lot on the line, and it wasn't close. - Buffalo over Denver
The forecast is for snow, so you never know, but it would take a near-perfect game from a rookie quarterback and multiple breaks on defense for the Broncos to win here. - Philadelphia over Green Bay
The Eagles did not lose any game that Jalen Hurts finished after the Week 5 bye. The Packers haven't been playing well enough on offense or defense lately to steal this Week 1 rematch.
Medium Confidence
- LA Chargers over Houston
The Chargers offense has been clicking with the return of J.K. Dobbins and the Texans didn't look like they belonged with the Chiefs and Ravens in December. - LA Rams over Minnesota
14 wins isn't that compelling when one team has such a decided edge in playoff experience at head coach and quarterback. The Rams also beat the Vikings 30-20 during the season. - Tampa Bay over Washington
Jayden Daniels has a horseshoe stashed somewhere, but Baker Mayfield played the Lions almost straight up last year and the Bucs have more players who know what it takes to win in the playoffs.
Divisional Round Picks in Order of Confidence
Medium Confidence
- Kansas City over LA Chargers
The Chargers defense has held the Chiefs to 17 and 19 points in the matchups, but their offense has only mustered 10 and 17 points. Jim Harbaugh will have them ready, but the Arrowhead black magic is tough to overcome in the playoffs.
Low Confidence
- Buffalo over Baltimore
Just enjoy this inevitable divisional round marquee matchup and MVP referendum. Both quarterbacks are peaking, but only one tends to play at his best in the postseason. - Philadelphia over Tampa Bay
The Bucs thumped the Eagles in the playoffs last year and again in Week 4 going into the bye, from which the Eagles emerged a new team. This Eagles team is balanced, but a matchup with the Bucs has added danger. It sounds weird, but Eagles fans should be pulling for the Commanders in the Wild Card game. - Detroit over LA Rams
These teams went to overtime in Week 1 and played a thriller in the Wild Card round last year. Lions fans would love to see the Vikings win in Los Angeles in the Wild Card round.
Conference Championship Picks in Order of Confidence
Low Confidence
Buffalo over Kansas City
Flip a coin. The Bills have been the better team, but we've seen them find excruciating ways to lose against the Chiefs in the playoffs.
Detroit over Philadelphia
Flip a coin. The Lions' myriad of injuries on defense could catch up with them, but they also have the will to be inventive and risk-taking to win.
Tiered Team Ranking
By Range of Outcomes/Fantasy Offensive Potential
First Tier: Cornerstones
- Detroit
- Philadelphia
- Buffalo
- Baltimore
Second Tier: Potential League Winners with Risk
- Kansas City
- Tampa Bay
- LA Rams
Third Tier: Multiple Games Possible, but a Super Bowl Run?
- LA Chargers
- Houston
- Minnesota
- Washington
Fourth Tier: Likely One and Done
- Pittsburgh
- Denver
- Green Bay
Strategy Notes and Rankings
- With 14 playoff teams and six Wild Gard games, it is less important than ever to get Wild Card weekend scoring with your early picks.
- Running back is very thin and should be prioritized over wide receiver early.
- Wide receiver is deep, making it not too hard to get representation on most teams likely to go to the Super Bowl.
- Only prioritize a top tight end if they align with other early picks to strengthen your bet on a team to go to the Super Bowl.
- Don't be afraid to reach a round or two early to break the seal on kicker or D/ST to align with your early picks to strengthen your Super Bowl bets.
Quarterback Rankings
1. Josh Allen, BUF
2. Lamar Jackson, BAL
3. Jalen Hurts, PHI
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4. Jared Goff, DET
5. Patrick Mahomes II, KC
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6. Baker Mayfield, TB
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7. Justin Herbert, LAC
8. Jayden Daniels, WAS
9. Matthew Stafford, LAR
10. Sam Darnold, MIN
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11. C.J. Stroud, HOU
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12. Bo Nix, DEN
13. Russell Wilson, PIT
14. Jordan Love, GB **Monitor Status**
15. Justin Fields, PIT
Notes: Allen, Jackson, and Hurts all provide a chance of four elite fantasy quarterback games…Goff and Mahomes have a lower fantasy ceiling per game, but better chance (maybe small) of playing in the Super Bowl…Mayfield has an elite weekly ceiling and outside chance of playing 3-4 games…Herbert has a shot to play three (four?) games with a higher weekly ceiling than advertised, Stafford has a lower weekly ceiling but a better shot at playing four games, Daniels and Darnold feel unlikely to play more than two games, but Daniels has a very high Wild Card weekend ceiling…Daniels and Darnold go best with Goff/Mahomes, but Herbert also fits with Mahomes and Stafford with Goff as combinations that could guarantee you three games at quarterback if the Chargers, Ravens, Bucs, and Rams win their Wild Card games… Stroud has a better chance to win than Nix, Wilson, and Love but probably has a lower fantasy ceiling for Wild Card weekend, so he's not a preferred QB2 if you start with Goff/Mahomes… If the Steelers can upset the Ravens, using Fields could be a big part of the game plan.
Running Back Rankings
1. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET
2. Saquon Barkley, PHI
3. Derrick Henry, BAL
4. James Cook, BUF
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5. Bucky Irving, TB
6. Kyren Williams, LAR
7. J.K. Dobbins, LAC
8. Joe Mixon, HOU
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9. Isiah Pacheco, KC
10. Kareem Hunt, KC
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11. Aaron Jones, MIN
12. Josh Jacobs, GB
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13. Justice Hill, BAL **Monitor Status**
14. Ray Davis, BUF
15. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI
16. Craig Reynolds, DET
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17. Jaylen Warren, PIT
18. Brian Robinson Jr, WAS
19. Austin Ekeler, WAS
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20. Rachaad White, TB
21. David Montgomery, DET **Monitor Status**
22. Cam Akers, MIN
23. Ronnie Rivers, LAR
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24. Sean Tucker, TB
25. Keaton Mitchell, BAL
26. Ty Johnson, BUF
27. Will Shipley, PHI
28. Jermar Jefferson, DET
29. Sione Vaki, DET
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30. Najee Harris, PIT **Monitor Status**
31. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN
32. Javonte Williams, DEN
33. Emanuel Wilson, GB
34. Audric Estime, DEN
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35. Samaje Perine, KC
36. Carson Steele, KC
37. Rasheen Ali, BAL
38. Cody Schrader, LAR
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39. Hassan Haskins, LAC
40. Dameon Pierce, HOU
41. Dare Ogunbowale, HOU
42. Kimani Vidal, LAC
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43. Chris Brooks, GB
44. Cordarrelle Patterson, PIT
45. Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS
46. Jeremy McNichols, WAS
47. Ty Chandler, MIN
Notes: If you have Detroit, Baltimore, or Philadelphia in the Super Bowl and can't get their quarterback, opt for their RB1 in the first round… Cook, Irving, Williams, or Dobbins could be keys to winning your league if they play three or four games - draft the team as much as the player… Pacheco and Hunt are in an uninspiring committee and could end up being wasted picks if the Chiefs don't make it to the Super Bowl… Whether to take Mixon or Jones comes down to your feeling about their team's chances in their Wild Card game… Jacobs and Warren should provide cheap Wild Card weekend points if you take Gibbs in the first round… The Broncos backs and Harris should only be taken if you are thin at running back for Wild Card weekend, otherwise use your late running back picks to get more chips on your Super Bowl favorites, or at least teams that have a chance to get there.
Wide Receiver Rankings
1. Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
2. A.J. Brown, PHI
3. Mike Evans, TB
4. Puka Nacua, LAR
5. Justin Jefferson, MIN
6. Jameson Williams, DET
7. Xavier Worthy, KC
8. DeVonta Smith, PHI
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9. Nico Collins, HOU
10. Marquise Brown, KC
11. Rashod Bateman, BAL **Monitor Flowers Status**
12. Ladd McConkey, LAC
13. Jalen McMillan, TB
14. Terry McLaurin, WAS
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15. Khalil Shakir, BUF
16. Zay Flowers, BAL **Monitor Status**
17. Cooper Kupp, LAR
18. Jordan Addison, MIN
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19. DeAndre Hopkins, KC
20. Amari Cooper, BUF
21. Quentin Johnston, LAC
22. Tim Patrick, DET
23. Keon Coleman, BUF
24. Mack Hollins, BUF
25. Kalif Raymond, DET
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26. George Pickens, PIT
27. Calvin Austin III, PIT
28. Courtland Sutton, DEN
29. Marvin Mims Jr., DEN
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30. Sterling Shepard, TB
31. Demarcus Robinson, LAR
32. Jalen Nailor, MIN
33. Olamide Zaccheaus, WAS
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34. Jayden Reed, GB
35. Dontayvion Wicks, GB
36. Romeo Doubs, GB
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37. Tylan Wallace, BAL **Monitor Agholor Status**
38. JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC
39. Justin Watson, KC
40. Curtis Samuel, BUF
41. Nelson Agholor, BAL **Monitor Status**
42. Devontez Walker, BAL **Monitor Agholor Status**
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42. Dyami Brown, WAS
43. Tutu Atwell, LAR
44. Jahan Dotson, PHI
45. John Metchie III, HOU **Monitor Status**
46. Trey Palmer, TB
47. Rakim Jarrett, TB
48. Joshua Palmer, LAC **Monitor Status**
49. Jordan Whittington, LAR
50. Jamison Crowder, WAS
51. Tyler Johnson, LAR
52. Derius Davis, LAC
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53. Van Jefferson, PIT
54. Mike Williams PIT
55. Devaughn Vele, DEN
56. Troy Franklin, DEN
57. Lil'Jordan Humphrey, DEN
58. Luke McCaffrey, WAS
59. Nikko Remigio, KC
60. D.J. Chark Jr, LAC **Monitor Palmer Status**
61. Ainias Smith, PHI
62. Johnny Wilson, PHI
63. Brandon Powell, MIN
64. Trent Sherfield Sr., MIN
Notes: The wide receiver corps in Buffalo, Detroit, and Kansas City are deep enough to have some representation even if you don't take one of their top one or two options… Zay Flowers' injury situation is very important for valuing Rashod Bateman. If Flowers is out for more than just the Wild Card game, Bateman could be a big value, although Flowers' absence could make it harder for Baltimore to advance deep into the playoffs…It's possible to double up on the Eagles wide receivers a big bet on them to go all the way…Consider putting together combinations like McConkey/Collins, Addison/Kupp, and McMillan/McLaurin to ensure that you advance a WR2/WR3 to at least the divisional round…Joshua Palmer (foot), John Metchie III (concussion), and Nelson Agholor (concussion) are also injury situations worth monitoring to sort out the rankings of the secondary receivers for their teams…The Steelers, Packers, and Broncos all have multiple high ceiling options to pick from so you don't have to worry too much about filling out your Wild Card lineup at wide receiver in the early rounds…You can pair up Nailor/Demarcus Robinson and Shepard/Zaccheaus late to make sure you get another shot at WR points in the divisional round.
Tight End Rankings
1. Mark Andrews, BAL
2. Sam LaPorta, DET
3. Travis Kelce, KC
4. Dallas Goedert, PHI
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5. Noah Gray, KC
6. Dalton Kincaid, BUF
7. Isaiah Likely, BAL
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8. Tucker Kraft, GB
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9. Dawson Knox, BUF
10. Cade Otton, TB **Monitor Status**
11. Will Dissly, LAC
12. T.J. Hockenson, MIN
13. Zach Ertz, WAS
14. Tyler Higbee, LAR
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15. Dalton Schultz, HOU
16. Pat Freiermuth, PIT
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17. Josh Oliver, MIN
18. Payne Durham, TB **Monitor Otton Status**
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19. Brock Wright, DET
20. Grant Calcaterra, PHI
21. Devin Culp, TB
22. Charlie Kolar, BAL
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23. Nate Adkins, DEN
24. Adam Trautman, DEN
25. Peyton Hendershot, KC
26. Colby Parkinson, LAR
27. Cade Stover, HOU
28. Stone Smartt, LAC
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29. Luke Musgrave, GB
30. Darnell Washington, PIT
31. Lucas Krull, DEN
Notes: Tight end is deep enough to not it sweat too much if you miss out on one of the top four options, but they are attractive since the top fantasy options are all on teams with reasonable chances to go all the way… Don't overlook Goedert, who knocked off the rust in Week 18 and should be ready for a big role in the playoffs…Gray and Likely are solid TE1's at a discount if their teams go to the Super Bowl… Kraft, Ertz, and Freiermuth are good to pair with LaPorta or Kelce for cheap Wild Card round points… Otton was close to playing in Week 18 and could be a great value pick if the Bucs play multiple games. Pair him with Payne Durham if roster size allows… Tyler Higbee also quietly got back on the field late in the season and should be a priority if you go cheap at tight end.
Kicker Rankings
1. Jake Bates, DET
2. Harrison Butker, KC
3. Tyler Bass, BUF
4. Jake Elliott, PHI
5. Justin Tucker, BAL
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6. Chase McLaughlin, TB
7. Joshua Karty, LAR
8. Cameron Dicker, LAC
9. Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU
10. Will Reichard, MIN
11. Zane Gonzalez, WAS
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12. Chris Boswell, PIT
13. Wil Lutz, DEN
14. Brandon McManus, GB
Notes: Bates and Butker have strong profiles in addition to being on the #1 seed teams… Like with lesser wide receiver options, consider pairing two kickers that face off in the Wild Card round if you miss on the kicker for your Super Bowl favorites…
Team Defense/Special Teams Rankings
1. Buffalo
2. Philadelphia
3. Baltimore
4. Detroit
5. Kansas City
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6. Tampa Bay
7. Los Angeles Rams
8. Los Angeles Chargers
9. Minnesota
10. Houston
11. Washington
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12. Pittsburgh
13. Denver
14. Green Bay
Notes: Big favorites playing on Wild Card weekend are a little higher in the D/ST rankings than #1 seeds because of the chance of significant points in lopsided Wild Card wins.