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Some Final Truths Before "The Season Of Lies"

I'm no draftnik. Fortunately, we've got plenty of those on staff. Our Rookie Draft Guide showcases their collective expertise, and you can download Version 1.0 for free right now. Soon, Version 2.0 will be available, complete with updated profiles and rankings incorporating all the key data from last week's NFL Scouting Combine.

While I'm not here to break down 40-yard dash times or vertical jumps, the Combine isn't just about player performances. It's also the last time we get something close to the truth from head coaches and general managers before they retreat into pre-draft mode -- what Footballguy Cecil Lammey aptly calls "the season of lies."

At the Combine, coaches and GMs drop hints -- some smoke, some substance -- about rosters and player roles. Fantasy managers who read between the lines can get ahead before the draft frenzy begins. 

Let's dive in . . .

Bengals Want What We Want . . . Don't They?

We touched on this in last week's Fantasy Notebook and it appears to be heading in the right direction.

Joe Burrow wants the Bengals to pay their stars and add talent. Duke Tobin agrees.

At his Tuesday Combine presser, Tobin, the Bengals Director of Player Personnel, said the team can extend Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, and Trey Hendrickson while adding free agents.

However, the path to success lies in signing Higgins, who is scheduled to become a free agent in March, to a new deal. Tobin wouldn’t say if the team will use the franchise tag before Tuesday’s deadline.

"Our preference with Higgins is to do a long-term agreement," Tobin said. "Always has been . . ."

Really?

Higgins isn’t buying it. On Tuesday night, he posted a cap emoji on X. "Cap" is another word for lie. 

?

— Tee Higgins? (@teehiggins5) February 26, 2025

Profootballtalk.com's Mike Florio reminded readers that because the Bengals applied the franchise tag to Higgins in 2024 at $21.8 million, using it again in 2025 would result in a 20-percent increase to $26.16 million. That becomes the starting point for negotiations on a multi-year deal.

To avoid a costly third tag, the Bengals must offer Higgins enough to forgo a $26.16 million payday and 2026 free agency.

Higgins may suspect the Bengals are negotiating in bad faith with the intent of tagging him and keeping him for one more season -- or tagging and trading him.

Either way, Higgins is calling someone a liar.

As Florio pointed out, the fact that he posted that cap emoji on the same day Tobin claimed the team intends to sign him to a long-term deal makes that contention the likely target of Higgins' claim.

For now, Higgins can only wait. We'll have answers by Tuesday . . . 

Back To The Chase

The Bengals know they'll have to break the bank by making Chase the highest-paid wide receiver in the league. As NFL.com's Kevin Patra reported, Tobin conceded it's a fait accompli that Chase would leapfrog Justin Jefferson's $35 million-per-year deal.

"Ja'Marr is always going to be our priority," Tobin said. "He's a fantastic football player. He's going to end up being the No. 1 paid non-quarterback in the league. We're there. Let's get it done."
 
Worth noting: Tobin believes Chase and Higgins sharing an agent is a plus.

"We can run parallel paths with the same representation, and that's what we'll do," Tobin said . . .

Why It's Important

With Chase in line for a record-setting payday, what does this mean for fantasy managers?

Getting Higgins' deal done quickly would give the team more flexibility to get Chase's deal done. Getting Chase's deal done early would forestall another training camp hold-in similar to last year that kept the star wideout off the field until just days before the regular season opener.

Whether he's participating in August workouts or not, Chase is going early in the first round of fantasy drafts. For me, he'll be the first receiver off the board (and likely the first pick overall).

After all, a slow start didn't keep him from excelling last season when Chase led all wide receivers with 403 fantasy points.

As SI.com's Michael Fabiano noted, Chase recorded career bests almost across the board, during which time he scored 40-plus points three times, including one game where he scored 55.4 points. In that Week 10 contest, Chase demonstrated how high the ceiling can be, hauling in 11 of 16 targets while racking up 264 yards with three touchdown catches against the Ravens. 

His 23.7-point per game average, which Chase sustained for 17 games, was four more than the 19.7-point average Tampa Bay's Chris Godwin posted in seven games before a season-ending injury sidelined him early last year.

By the way, Higgins posted the fourth-highest average among all fantasy receivers. He tied with Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown at 18.7 points per game.

The duo's success came with Burrow finishing as QB2 through Week 18 with 22.5 points per game.

So yes. Keeping Higgins, getting Chase's deal done, and keeping Burrow happy would be in all our best interests . . .

The Other Chase

While we're on the topic of Cincy's offense, Tobin also addressed running back Chase Brown's workload.

"I think we'll have an addition at some point," Tobin said. "It was a shame that Zack Moss had the neck injury he had . . . We'll see what that looks like going forward. I don't know that we have clarity on that."

Fantasy managers would love to see Brown continue to enjoy the workload he did in Moss' absence last year.

As I noted earlier this month, in Week 9, the first week without Moss, Brown got 100 percent of the running back touches for the Bengals. The speedy running back turned the resulting workload, 32 touches (27 carries and five catches), into 157 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.

From that game through Week 17, Brown was on the field at least 80 percent of the time and up to 98.5 percent (in Week 15 against Cleveland).

He finished 10th in points among running backs on the season; from Weeks 4 through 17 (he didn't play Week 18), Brown was RB6.

Reasons for hope?

Tobin didn't rule out another busy season. 

"Ideally, you would want a second guy to take some of that workload off, but [Brown] surprised us and showed us he can handle that. If he can handle it, and he's the best guy for the moment, then he'll be in the game."

Based on his current RB12 ADP on Underdog, early drafters think Brown will be in the game more often than not . . .

He's Back! Kelce Good To Go For 2025

Did I mention team officials speaking the truth from the Scouting Combine podium? 

Look no further than Chiefs general manager Brett Veach, who said on Tuesday that veteran tight end Travis Kelce is "fired up" about returning for the 2025 season.

"We left it as he'd be back, and we're excited to get him back and get him going," Veach told reporters.

That was news to all of us. Last we heard, Kelce would take some time to ponder his future. 

Nonetheless, head coach Andy Reid also expressed confidence in a Kelce return during a Tuesday interview with NFL.com's Judy Battista.

"I think it will all work out. But I'm big on that, I'm big on stepping away," Reid said. "I mean, Trav is positive. There's no negative to it. But step back and get yourself away from it . . . You just think clearer. We obviously hope he's coming back. He's been positive in that direction. We'll cross all that here next week or so."

Lo And Behold 

Reid and Veach were right. We learned on Thursday that Kelce plans to play in the 2025 season.

Breaking the news, ESPN's Pat McAfee read a text from Kelce on his show. 

"I'm coming back for sure. Gonna try to get into the best shape I've been this offseason and get back to the mountaintop," Kelce wrote in the text. "Got a real bad taste in my mouth with how I played in that last game and with how I got the guys ready for battle. I can't go out like that!!!!"

Later Thursday, the "New Heights" podcast, hosted by Kelce and his brother Jason Kelce, posted a confirmation on X: 

From the desk of @tkelce: ITS TIME FOR YEAR 13

Full breakdown on next week’s episode!!! pic.twitter.com/iyUYZmJKk7

— New Heights (@newheightshow) February 27, 2025

The post suggests Kelce will discuss his decision to return for a 13th season on the next episode, which will be released this coming week.

Kelce, 35, caught 97 passes for 823 yards with three touchdowns in the regular season before posting 13 receptions for 175 yards with a TD in three postseason games.

Should We Care?

Kelce's TE10 Average Draft Position (ADP) and 117th-pick price tag in early Underdog best-ball drafts suggested a hoped-for return while reflecting his disappointing 2024 season.

As Footballguy Sigmund Bloom noted on Friday, "Kelce had a three-week outburst when the Chiefs' wide receiver group was depleted in the middle of the season, but otherwise was pedestrian most weeks. He's a player in decline and priced about right in redraft and dynasty."

Bloom added this could be a good moment to move Kelce in dynasty leagues with a strong class at tight end that will give dynasty league players good options into the third round of rookie drafts. 

I agree. Selling on a potential bump in interest based on news of Kelce's return might yield the best return possible this year . . .

This And That: Quarterback Carousel Edition

The Scouting Combine podium talk was heavy on quarterbacks this year, which in at least one case, led to quick action and resolution.

The First Domino Has Fallen

Last week in this spot, I suggested there was a "weird vibe" surrounding Matthew Stafford and the Rams. 

This after initial contract discussion between the two sides made it clear they didn't agree on the quarterback's value for 2025. Because of that, the Rams permitted Stafford to talk to other teams. 

And talk he did. 

After discussions with the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants about contract parameters, Stafford and the Rams were able to come to an agreement on a reworked contract.

According to Dianna Russini of TheAthletic.com, the talks with the Raiders and Giants involved a two-year contract that would pay Stafford $90-100 million in guaranteed money. 

Still, as NFL Network's Peter Schrager pointed out, the Rams give Stafford the best shot at a second Super Bowl and apparently, uprooting everything right now wasn't preferable for the QB . . .

Where Does That Leave Us?

Footballguy Jason Wood commented on Stafford's QB22 ranking in FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings. "The industry (believes) Stafford is something he no longer is," Wood wrote. "He finished as QB32 on a per-game basis last year, and even if you remove backups with high per-game averages, he was still only QB27."

I agree with that. 

At the very least, Stafford's days of being anything more than a reasonably safe (in terms of job security) QB2 for fantasy managers appear to be in the rearview mirror. But that doesn't mean the veteran signal-caller won't be important to front-line players we are interested in: 

Cooper Kupp yards per game with/without Matthew Stafford
- 84.1/66.1

Kenny Golladay yards per game with/without Stafford
- 65.3/23.2

Golden Tate yards per game with/without Stafford
- 66.0/40.2

Calvin Johnson yards per game with/without Stafford
- 95.6/71.6 https://t.co/A1rErenVCC

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) February 26, 2025

So the biggest takeaway here might be that Puka Nacua will be well-positioned to make good on his initial Footballguys 2025 Projections, which have him sitting at WR3 -- a number in line with his early WR4 ADP on Underdog . . .

Who's Next?

Stafford wasn't the only name in the mix. Let's look at the other quarterbacks who'll be making waves in the coming days and weeks. 

Darnold Watch

The Vikings have 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy as a quarterback-in-waiting. But they still may bring Sam Darnold, a pending free agent after a breakout season, back for at least another season in 2025.

General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said during his Tuesday press conference at the scouting combine that the club is still discussing how to proceed with Darnold -- with the franchise tag one possibility.

"Every option is afforded to us," Adofo-Mensah said. "We'll continue to work those options and figure out the best way for the Vikings to move forward."

Minneapolis Star-Tribune staffer Andrew Krammer isn't buying that. 

Krammer contends the Vikings do not plan on tagging him because "they do not intend to keep him on the tag, and trading him on the tag proves to be pretty difficult."

Darnold, 27, had far and away his best pro season playing under head coach Kevin O'Connell in 2024. He completed 66.2 percent of his passes for 4,319 yards with 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, leading the Vikings to a 14-3 record . . .

Rodgers Has Preferred Outcomes

Aaron Rodgers, a future Hall of Famer who will be released by the Jets, has listed two factors in his search for a new team. First, the team must want him. Second, it needs to be a "good" team.

Sources at the Combine told New York Daily News staffer Pat Leonard that Rodgers, 41, wanted to join the Rams and hoped to reunite with Davante Adams once Adams hit free agency. 

Even before Stafford locked down his return to LA, Rodgers had reportedly reached out to the Giants. They’re not "good" yet, but with him, they could be better in 2025.

Meanwhile, the Giants find themselves shifting gears with an open mind.

With Matthew Stafford remaining with the Rams, the New York Giants are investigating all veteran quarterback options…..including Aaron Rodgers, per sources. pic.twitter.com/qy3nzSdZy6

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 28, 2025

It's not a reach to believe the Giants don't see any of the other veteran options moving the needle toward Giants GM Joe Schoen's goal to find the best winner for 2025, something they clearly felt Stafford offered. 

And while Schoen said he had "several different plans" for addressing the QB position, "there's only so many of those guys" who are difference makers.

"It depends who it is," Schoen explained. "I don't know who that player is. We'll see."

Colorado's Shedeur Sanders and Miami's Cam Ward are still in play for the Giants with either the No. 3 overall pick or a trade up.

Schoen didn’t sound sold on this year’s QB class. He questioned whether a true franchise-changing passer is even available.

He said it would be nice to land a 15-year franchise QB, but the decision can't be forced . . .

What About The Raiders? 

Las Vegas Review-Journal staffer Vinny Bonsignore, citing multiple NFL sources,  reported on Thursday that the Raiders had found "common ground" on contract terms for Stafford.

Now that they've missed out, the Raiders still need a quarterback. They have other targets in mind. 

With Matthew Stafford remaining with the Rams, the Las Vegas Raiders now are expected to investigate veteran quarterback options that include Russell Wilson, Justin Fields and Sam Darnold, per sources. pic.twitter.com/9RUGIZy5g9

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 28, 2025

Like the Giants, the Raiders could also draft a quarterback -- if they can land the right prospect. Ward or Sanders may fall to them at the sixth overall pick . . .

And What About The Steelers?  

Pittsburgh was also linked to Stafford, but where do they stand now?

Steelers general manager Omar Khan wouldn't comment on the club's interest in Stafford during his Tuesday press conference. However, Khan noted several times that the Steelers are open to all possibilities, given that neither Russell Wilson nor Justin Fields is under contract for 2025 (and with both now on the radar in Vegas). 

"I'd say, ideally we'd like to keep one of the guys we had with us last year," Khan said. "We don't have anyone under contract, so until that happens, all options are on the table."

Still, Khan is clearly exploring every option.

"We're just looking for the guy, the player that's going to help us win our ultimate goal, which is a championship," Khan added . . .

Colts Still All In On Competition For Richardson

Colts general manager Chris Ballard reiterated past comments indicating Anthony Richardson will need to battle a to-be-determined signal-caller the Colts acquire this offseason.

"I think that's good for the team," Ballard told reporters, "and I think it's good for Anthony."

Ballard said he would consider all avenues -- via free agency, a trade or through the draft -- to find the player to challenge Richardson. 

"It's gotta be the right guy to create real competition," he said. 

Speaking after Ballard's reveal on Tuesday, Colts head coach Shane Steichen said "competition is great for everybody" and that he's looking for more "consistency" from the 22-year-old Richardson.

"We drafted Anthony high knowing it was going to take time," Ballard said. "We knew there were going to be some hiccups along the way. We all want a finished product right away - I do, you do, fans do, we all do. I think as he continues to progress in his young career, us adding competition will help (raise) everybody's game . . ."

Cousins In Limbo

Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot indicated at the Combine that Kirk Cousins will remain with the team for the foreseeable future after being benched for then-rookie Michael Penix Jr. late in the 2024 NFL season.

Cousins has a guaranteed $27.5 million salary for the season and a no-trade clause that might force the Falcons to cut him before $10 million of his 2026 pay becomes fully guaranteed. Unless he waives the clause and Atlanta finds a trade partner, moving on will be difficult.

That’s why Fontenot emphasized Cousins’ ability to adapt after last season’s benching.

"Kirk handled that really well at the end of the season," Fontenot said . . .

Who's Not Looking?

Other teams still in need at the position include the Browns, the Titans, and the Jets.

The Saints? Not so much.

New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis told reporters Wednesday that Derek Carr will return for a third season with the Saints despite the club's salary cap issues . . . 

Niners Working To Extend Purdy

Meanwhile, Brock Purdy and the 49ers have begun contract negotiations, general manager John Lynch told reporters on Wednesday. "We want Brock to be our quarterback as long as we're here," Lynch said. Purdy is entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2025.

Lynch also said the team would honor Deebo Samuel Sr.'s trade request.

The Commanders and Texans have had significant interest in trading for Deebo Samuel Sr., with talks progressing in recent days, sources told FOX Sports insider Jordan Schultz on Friday.

Other teams, including the Steelers, and Broncos, have also checked in, but Schultz contends Houston and Washington are believed to be the most aggressive . . .

Nix Coming Off Minor Surgery

Broncos general manager George Paton said quarterback Bo Nix is fine and working out at the team facility following a procedure earlier this offseason unrelated to a back injury the then-rookie QB played through.

Head coach Sean Payton said earlier that Nix had been dealing with turf toe at one point. 

In addition, Paton addressed a potential extension for wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who is entering the final year of his contract, by saying, "We want him here. We'll have those discussions at the right time."

Nix, who finished as a surprising QB8 last year, is going as QB7 in early best-ball drafts. Sutton, an equally surprising WR24, is currently being drafted as WR32 on Underdog. 

There's potential value here for fantasy drafters  . . .

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of stories. I like to use this spot to encapsulate that broad expanse here.

The Good: More Money!

The NFL and NFLPA have agreed to a 2025 salary cap of $279.2 million per club, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported Thursday.

Last week, the league projected the cap to land between $277.5 million and $281.5 million.

The $279.2 million cap number represents a $23.8 million leap from last year's $255.4 million figure and is the latest record high in an ever-booming business.

The escalation of the cap represents more than $100 million than what it sat at in 2018 ($177 million) and nearly $200 million more than it was in 2005 ($85.5 million). Only a brief COVID-induced downtick in 2021 has been able to slow the NFL machine.

NFL Vice President of Communications Brian McCarthy noted that the total projected player costs, including benefits, are slotted at $362.48 million (approximately $11.599 billion for the 32 clubs combined).

Now NFL clubs know precisely how much money -- or how little -- they'll have to play with when the new league year begins on March 12.

From both the NFL and fantasy perspectives, it's safe to say the more, the merrier . . .

The Bad: No Tush Push?

Banning the tush push was a topic of conversation around the NFL Scouting Combine. The Packers made a formal proposal to ban the play.

Nick Sirianni isn't keen on the idea.

The Eagles coach was asked about the calls to take a play that his team has mastered out of the game at a Tuesday press conference and scoffed at the notion that it's an "automatic play" because of the players pushing quarterback Jalen Hurts from behind in short yardage. 

But the play has been incredibly effective for the Eagles, so much so that Hurts finished in a tie for the fifth-most rushing touchdowns (14) in 2024. In 2023, Josh Allen and Hurts tied for the most quarterback rushing touchdowns in a season with 15 each. 

With 65, Allen is the active quarterback with the most career rushing touchdowns. Hurts is third with 55 scoring runs. 

Banning the play -- unlikely as it seems -- would be bad for fantasy managers invested in Hurts. 

It would take votes from 24 teams to approve that proposal, and we know they won't be getting one from Philadelphia . . .

The Ugly: Woody's Failing Grade

The annual NFLPA survey that ranks teams based on various categories related to working conditions determined the Miami Dolphins offered the most favorable atmosphere, while the Arizona Cardinals ranked last.

Per the report cards released by the union on Wednesday, the Dolphins didn't receive a grade below an A (on an A+ to F-minus scale) in any of the 11 categories. On the other hand, the Cardinals received grades of D+ or worse in six categories, with their lowest marks coming in locker room (F-minus) and weight room (F). They do like head coach Jonathan Gannon, who received an A grade.

As for owners? 

Only one NFL owner got an F.

Jets owner Woody Johnson received that one failing grade, ranking 32nd in the league in how players perceive their ownership.

An ugly outcome for him.

The NFLPA report card suggests that players view Johnson as refusing to do the things players need him to do to turn the team around. Johnson finished last in the league with a 5.58 rating for developing facilities. He was also last in terms of building a positive team culture. When it came to fielding a competitive team, he didn't finish last, but he wasn't too far ahead as the second-worst in that category.

Johnson said after the season that the Jets need him to be a better owner. His players emphatically endorsed that view . . .

The Final Word

That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. While many consider this "the NFL offseason," we're still grinding at Footballguys to help you gain an edge on your leaguemates. Check back often to take advantage of our ongoing content.

That includes the Footballguys 2025 Rookie Draft Guide, our 2025 Player Projections, and Draft Rankings.

It's never too early to start, so head back next week for another Fantasy Notebook.

Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can catch Harris' "On The Hotseat" every Tuesday on the Footballguys Audible channel and listen to him during the season on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.

Follow @footballdiehard