Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.

Let's dive in . . .

The Quest

Last year's unexpected outcomes play a significant role in determining this year's draft prices. Analyzing these outcomes helps gauge their impact on player values for the upcoming season.

As we've done over the last three weeks, we'll examine one player who fell short of expectations in 2024 and another who exceeded them, assessing their potential values this year.

It's part of the offseason-long journey to gain an edge on your competition. The goal here is setting baselines to track as circumstances evolve, so let's keep that ball rolling with . . .

Marvin Harrison Jr.: Is A Year Two Leap Coming?

An undeniably talented but unproven rookie lands in an ideal situation, rises quickly in preseason rankings, but ultimately falls short of expectations in their first season.

In 2020, Clyde Edwards-Helaire's Average Draft Position (ADP) went as high as sixth overall. He finished the year as RB22.

In 2024, Cardinals rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. went into the season with a WR9 ADP, which made him the 15th pick overall.

The former Ohio State standout hauled in 62 passes for 885 yards and eight touchdowns. He finished the year as WR30 in PPR formats.

But that finish is misleading, inflated by a pair of outlier performances. Harrison finished as the WR1 overall with a 29-point effort in Week 2 and landed at WR5 in Week 5 when he delivered 23.1 fantasy points.

Including those two games, Harrison yielded fantasy-relevant weeks -- WR36 or better -- just eight times all season. His 11.7 points per game ranked 42nd overall . . .

The Murray Factor

Harrison's lofty draft status stemmed, at least in part, from his landing with Arizona in an offense run by Kyler Murray.

I get that.

Most of you know I try not to let less-than-ideal quarterback situations drive me off talented receiving assets. But that doesn't mean superior quarterback play isn't beneficial. 

We saw glimpses of it with Harrison, who rebounded from a poor Week 1 showing to deliver his only WR1 finish of the season in Week 2.

In his debut, Harrison caught one pass for four yards in a loss to the Bills. Despite leading the Cardinals in routes run in Buffalo, the rookie had only three targets -- and one obvious drop.

As rough as his NFL debut was, Week 2 was equally, if not more, impressive.

In the first three-plus minutes of that Week 2 game against the Rams, Harrison exploded for touchdown catches of 23 and 60 yards.

Harrison became the first rookie with four or more catches and two or more touchdowns in a first quarter since -- incredibly -- his father, Marvin Harrison Sr., did it in 1996 with the Indianapolis Colts. 

Harrison Jr. put up the resulting positional-high 29 fantasy points despite playing less than 70 percent of Arizona's offensive snaps. Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke noted at the time that Harrison only played four-of-16 snaps in the fourth quarter, as he left the game earlier than most starters.

Still, as Jahnke added, "There is no need to worry about that snap share in this game." 

It made sense, especially if you believed Murray would continue to play at a level close to what he did against the Rams. Per the NFL, Murray became only the second player in league history to generate a perfect passer rating while throwing for 250 or more yards and rushing for 50 or more yards.

Murray was 17-of-21 for 266 yards and three touchdowns that day. He added 59 rushing yards on five attempts. The veteran quarterback is clearly a capable playmaker. Like he did in Week 2, Murray can fuel high-end production for his receiving assets.

But again . . .

It Wasn't The Norm

An immediate breakout for the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL Draft seemed inevitable. Instead, Harrison's first year was more about trying to find his way. 

That's not to say it was a bad season.

Harrison's eight touchdowns led the team (and tied the franchise rookie record held by Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin). Harrison ranked second on the team in targets, catches, and yards behind only star tight end Trey McBride.

Darren Urban of the team's official website believes those totals fit the bill for a run-first offense. But Urban also acknowledged that "expectations were different . . ."

So, What's Realistic In 2025?

It's safe to say the Cardinals are motivated to maximize their investment. The club will win more often if Harrison's full potential is unlocked. The constant refrain is the jump a rookie can make from Year 1 to Year 2. That will be the hope for Harrison.

Fitzgerald, who was the No. 3 overall pick, had similar rookie numbers to what Harrison compiled. Fitzgerald is expected to be a first-ballot NFL Hall of Famer as soon as he's eligible in 2026.

But there's a closer comparison.

As SI.com's Michael Fabiano noted, Harrison Sr. finished his rookie season with Jim Harbaugh as his quarterback, posting 64 catches, 836 yards, eight touchdowns, and 195.1 fantasy points -- eerily similar numbers to his son. The elder Harrison didn't break out until his fourth NFL season when he posted 115 catches, 1,663 yards and 12 scores.

Unlike his father, who needed four seasons to break out, Harrison Jr. could accelerate that timeline in today’s pass-heavy league. The first step in that journey is obvious . . .

Getting More In Sync With Murray

The big games notwithstanding, Urban acknowledges there were times last year when the disconnect between Murray and Harrison was apparent. There were also contested catches that Harrison couldn't quite grab.

"This was a good year for him to get under his belt," head coach Jonathan Gannon said. "First year with the quarterback, and there's no doubt that collectively, we have to do a better job. I'm very aware of that. It's not like I just think, 'It is what it is.' That's not my mindset. I know the impact that he can have on our team and our offense. We have to make sure that he hits his ceiling."

That target date needs to be 2025, when Harrison, the offense, and the Cardinals will carry even bigger expectations.

"We've got no choice," Murray said. "We've got to get it where we need it to be. He is who he is and we've got to get it going . . ."

The Good News

Harrison is far more likely to return value on his draft price this year for the obvious reason -- he'll be cheaper.

His ADP in early Underdog is WR18 with a late-third-round price tag. 

While that's slightly higher than FantasyPros' industry consensus, Footballguy Jason Wood believes the consensus undervalues him.

In his initial Footballguys 2025 Player Projections, Wood has Harrison as his WR14.

"Given his pedigree and skill set," Wood explained in his Wide Receiver Rankings: Players I'm High On, "I'm betting that he refocuses after last year's disappointment and emerges -- one season later than expected -- as one of the league's best. Look no further than Jaxon Smith-Njigba's ascendance last year as a case study for how important it is not to disregard elite talent because of rookie growing pains."

For the record, Smith-Njigba finished 2024, his second season in the league, as WR10. 

For me, Harrison is a buy at his current ADP as a high-upside WR2 with breakout potential . . . 

The Flip Side

For every player who falls short, there are players who exceed expectations or outperform their ADP. Let's look at a great example of a player who's going to make us ask . . .

Brian Thomas Jr..: How Much Is Too Much?

Brian Thomas Jr. was a bright spot in an otherwise bleak season for the Jaguars. Despite being the fourth receiver off the board in the first round in last April's NFL Draft, the former LSU star was the most prolific of the class, with 82 receptions for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns.

He finished the year as WR5 with 280 fantasy points. 

Thomas had 13 weeks of WR3 or better production. That includes six games as WR12 or better with three top-5 finishes. He had five WR2 finishes. 

He hit those numbers despite a slow start. Thomas scored just 35.9 points on 11 receptions (3.7 per game) in his first three contests, but only Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Justin Jefferson outscored him over the final 14 games of the season when Thomas averaged 5.4 catches per week.

Thomas, who drew 129 targets, was reliable, hauling in 67 percent of passes thrown his way.

According to Fabiano, only Randy Moss, Chase, Puka Nacua, and Odell Beckham Jr. scored more points in their respective first NFL seasons. Three of those instances (Chase, Nacua, Thomas Jr.) have occurred in the last four years, including two since the league moved to a 17-game schedule . . .

Has Thomas Already Hit His Ceiling?

Fansided.com's Carlos Sanchez noted that Thomas brings an element of verticality that the Jaguars' offense had been missing for several years, and what's surprising about his success is that the coaching staff didn't initially know how to deploy him. By the time they figured it out, Trevor Lawrence was done for the year, and Mac Jones was the quarterback.

Despite the roadblocks, Thomas was a game-changer for the Jags and Sanchez contends the wideout could be even better this year. 

Florida Times-Union staffer Juston Lewis noted that as fellow pass catchers Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram were sidelined with season-ending ailments, Thomas found himself in situations a rookie receiver wouldn't typically see.

The Jaguars started moving him around the formation, aligning him in the slot or putting him in motion pre-snap. He was successful in those situations, and that's not lost on the incoming staff.

"I did not know he had the ability to do what he did in the slot," new head coach and play-caller Liam Coen said upon arrival in Jacksonville. "They did a good job getting that right."

During his introductory press conference, Coen declared that Jacksonville's offense would be about Lawrence. But it's not farfetched to think it'll also feature a heavy dose of Thomas, and . . .

That's Exciting

New offensive coordinator Grant Udinski is an enthusiastic supporter. Asked about working with Thomas, Udinski said, "He's one of the guys where you watch the tape, and it's hard to stay seated."

With his speed and route-running ability, Thomas can make an impact at all levels of the field. 

USA Today's Paul Bretl believes Thomas' impact within the offense can potentially go beyond his own column in the stat sheet. Thomas' ability to create mismatches and draw attention can open up opportunities for others in the offense.

As good as Thomas' first year was, there is more out there for him, and that's not only in terms of production, but within Coen's offense, how he's utilized.

Looking back, his rookie season might have been a sign of what’s to come . . .

Unfortunately, We'll Have To Pay For It

Unlike last year -- when he was drafted as WR49 with a ninth-round ADP (112 overall) -- Thomas will cost you this summer.

His initial Underdog Best Ball ADP is WR7, going with the 10th pick overall. That's one spot ahead of another 2024 rookie superstar, the Giants' Malik Nabers.

There are reasons for concern. 

First of all, if Kirk (assuming he remains with the club) and Engram are healthy, it's fair to wonder if Thomas' target share will be as high. Those 129 targets are more than double Engram's 62 (in nine games), the second-highest number on the roster. Tight end Brenton Strange and wideout Parker Washington, who played all 17 games, finished with 54 and 51 targets, respectively.

Full seasons from Kirk, Engram, and even Davis could change the dynamic. In addition, Thomas had most of his success with Jones under center. 

With Lawrence back at the helm, working in a new offense under a new play-caller, plenty of adjustments are coming. 

While I want some exposure to Thomas, with players like St. Brown, Malik Nabers, De'Von Achane, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Brock Bowers all going in that same tier, I'll be diversifying in my best-ball drafts . . .

This And That: Will They Or Won't They Edition

Stafford's Weird Vibe

After the Rams lost to the Eagles in the divisional round, quarterback Matthew Stafford said he wanted to take some time to think about his future.

It didn't take long.

Preliminary clarity came by the end of the month. Stafford reportedly plans to play in 2025. But as Profootballtalk.com's Mike Florio suggested, that's not the end. It's the beginning. 

Due to make only $27 million in 2025, Stafford has two years left on his deal. He'll want a raise after restructuring his contract last summer to reduce his guaranteed money in 2025 and 2026.

According to The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue, the two sides met to talk before the Super Bowl, although not much progressed after their opening conversations, and will pick back up in the coming weeks.

Still, it's not a given that Stafford will remain with the Rams, despite both sides' initial openness to a deal.

Rodrigue contends the fact that coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead didn't overtly commit to Stafford in season-ending news conferences signaled their open phone lines for a potential trade.

"[I]t'll take someone calling or us reaching out if we want to do that," Snead said. "Those are the things that'll be determined down the road here."

With several teams -- the Jets, Steelers, Browns, Titans, Raiders, Giants, and possibly the Saints -- looking for quarterbacks, the Rams likely remain open for business.

What's the plan if they part ways with Stafford?

Jimmy Garoppolo, their backup last season, will be a free agent. He could be re-signed as a bridge to the next franchise quarterback, whether that player arrives via draft or trade. 

Draft experts agree that this incoming quarterback class is thin and top-heavy. As of now, the Rams don't pick until No. 26 in this year's draft.

Free-agent quarterbacks include Sam Darnold (assuming he avoids the franchise tag), who has ties to L.A. in a roundabout way through Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell and other staff, Justin Fields, Jacoby Brissett, Drew Lock, Marcus Mariota, Daniel Jones, and Mac Jones. 

Although it's not as dire as the Deshaun Watson debacle in Cleveland, Florio contends the Rams "have a mess." They could kick the cap can by extending his contract, but he's 37. At what point will the Rams (who are young at most positions) pivot to someone more than a decade younger than Stafford? After all, they're looking to move on from veteran wideout Cooper Kupp.

"For now," Florio added, "it's just a weird vibe."

That might be intentional.

As Footballguy Sigmund Bloom suggested, "The Rams are trying to see if they can get a team to vastly overpay for Stafford in a trade. Stafford is trying to see if he can get the Rams to vastly overpay for the final viable years of his career.

"Typical business. You never know if a team will blink and give up way too much for Stafford, but chances are he and the team find a middle ground. I would bet on Stafford retiring a Ram."

Meanwhile, in the two weeks since Kupp revealed that the Rams are trying to trade him, there have been no reports that the Rams have found any interested parties.

With the Scouting Combine starting this week, we may soon get clarity on these situations . . .

Tag! Who's Getting It? 

The NFL's franchise tag window opened Tuesday (Feb. 18). It was the first day clubs could use the tender. The window closes on Mar. 4 at 4 pm ET.

According to NFL.com's Kevin Patra, even with the window opening, we shouldn't expect much immediate news. Most teams will wait until closer to the end of the window before executing the tag -- using the threat as a soft deadline to get a longer-term extension done before employing the one-year tender.

Let's review the fantasy-relevant candidates who could get tagged before the deadline hits . . .

Making Burrow's Wish Come True

Cincinnati is working on fulfilling one of Joe Burrow's wishes.

After playing on the tag in 2024, Tee Higgins is eyeing a long-term deal. Burrow has been adamant about not letting great players such as Higgins leave the building.

The veteran receiver would be the top free agent if he were to make it to free agency.

That isn't expected to happen.

According to SI.com's James Rapien, the Bengals plan to tag Higgins with the non-exclusive franchise tag for a second season.

Higgins will make $26.18 million on the franchise tag, but those numbers would change if he agrees to a new contract, and the Bengals are reportedly focused on getting a long-term deal done.

He's battled injuries in recent years, but the offense has thrived when Higgins has lined up alongside Ja'Marr Chase, who also needs a new contract. 

And Burrow knows it.

"Tee is a need, yes," Burrow said in December. "Those discussions are ongoing, and I'm confident that I think we're gonna be able to do what it takes to bring Tee back."

Since Cincinnati will need to give Chase a record-breaking deal, securing a cap-friendly contract for Higgins is even more critical . . .

Godwin Flying Under The Radar

Sources told ESPN.com's Jenna Laine that the Bucs want receiver Chris Godwin back and will do what it takes to make this happen, but it won't be by using the franchise tag. 

They used the tag as a placeholder the last time Godwin was a free agent (in 2022), and they used it on him in 2021, so this would be his third time being tagged -- therefore, it would have to be a 144 percent raise, and Lane is told there is "no chance" of that happening. 

That said, the two sides are working on a new contract that would keep Godwin in Tampa Bay.

According to Greg Auman of Fox Sports, Godwin and the Buccaneers have agreed to change the receiver's old contract so that it doesn't void until the end of the league year on Mar. 12. That gives both sides more time to negotiate and reach a new agreement. If they can't reach a new deal, the contract will void, and Godwin will be available at the start of free agency, also Mar. 12.

Just a reminder: Godwin was WR2 through Week 7 last season before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. He is currently flying way under the radar as the WR35 in early Underdog best ball drafts . . .

Do The Steelers Even Care?

Running back Najee Harris, who entered the league as a first-round pick of the Steelers in 2021, is heading toward free agency.

Whether the Steelers will re-sign him remains to be seen. Their exclusive negotiating window is shrinking by the hour.

After three straight 1,000-yard seasons, they opted not to exercise a fifth-year option at $6.79 million. Harris had another 1,000-yard season in 2024 and finished the year as RB22.

The Steelers could apply the franchise tag, but that seems unlikely. 

So, as Florio asked, "Why would they dare to let him walk away, one year post-Saquon Barkley? (And post-Derrick Henry and post-Josh Jacobs?)"

Most likely because the Steelers don't believe Harris belongs in the same category as those backs.

The numbers back their contention. Harris is reliable. He's durable. He's never missed a game. Harris has 1,277 career touches, an average of 319.25 per season. But he lacks the burst that Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Henry, Bijan Robinson, De'Von Achane, and other top-tier backs bring to the mix for their teams.

Harris has become a floor play for the Steelers and fantasy investors. He's solid but unspectacular.

Meanwhile, local observers expect the Steelers to tender an offer to Jaylen Warren, a restricted free agent. Warren, at RB27, is going well ahead of Harris, who is RB36, in early Underdog best-ball drafts (and Wood has some thoughts on Warren in his early look at running back rankings).

Given the current lack of fantasy interest, I'm eager to see what kind of market develops when Harris hits free agency. Even if he's not in Barkley's league, Florio believes "Harris will likely benefit from the fact that the running back, like the mullet, is back in style." 

We'll find out how trendy running backs are when the negotiating window opens next month . . .

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of stories. I like to use this spot to encapsulate that broad expanse here.

The Good

As the Eagles celebrated their Super Bowl win in Philadelphia last Friday, Barkley wanted to ensure every team member was included.

The star running back was walking along the parade route, high-fiving fans, when he spotted a ball boy who worked for the team this year in the crowd. Barkley turned back, hugged the ball boy, and then lifted him over the barrier so he could join the team along the parade route.

Saquon saw the Eagles ball boy in the crowd and pulled him over fence to join team at the parade ??

(via @mikael_laferla) pic.twitter.com/n6W62BYBKC

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) February 14, 2025

The moment was captured on video and quickly became a hit on social media, with fans praising Barkley for recognizing that everyone who played a part in the Eagles' great season deserved to be a part of the celebration.

Before Barkley left the Giants to sign with the Eagles, Giants owner John Mara famously called him "our most popular player, by far." 

As PFT suggested, it's easy to see why Barkley is popular wherever he goes. 

That includes the best-ball rooms at Underdog, where Barkley is currently the second player off the board (behind only Chase) . . .

The Bad

At that same parade, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman -- the man responsible for bringing Barkley to Philadelphia -- was hit in the head with a beer can, leaving a crescent-shaped wound on his forehead.

Taking to the podium at the end of the parade, Roseman was unfazed.

“I bleed for this city.” #Eagles GM Howie Roseman pic.twitter.com/J7WImErk0s

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 14, 2025

The Eagles could be on the front end of a dynasty of their own, since Roseman has compiled the most talented overall team in football. So, as PFT suggested, at the team's next parade, Roseman might want to borrow someone's helmet.

Whatever the case, his work here isn't done, people. Knocking him out of the picture would be a bad move . . .

The Ugly

The Jets will move on from quarterback Aaron Rodgers. But Rodgers reportedly didn't want to move out.

Steve Helling and Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post reported last week that Rodgers "pleaded" with the Jets to keep him and that, in the final conversations with the team's new regime, "aggressively urged" the franchise to give him another year or two.

Ultimately, the report suggested that Rodgers accepted the decision "like a man going to the gallows."

That's a heck of a revelation on an ugly aspect of NFL life. Whatever you think of Rodgers, the loaded language in the Post paints an unflattering picture. 

While there has been reporting since the Jets announced they'd be moving on indicating Rodgers wants to continue his career, a story like this might further stoke the four-time NFL MVP's competitive fires. . .

The Final Word

That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. While many consider this "the NFL offseason," we're still grinding at Footballguys to help you gain an edge on your leaguemates. Check back often to take advantage of our ongoing content.

That includes the Footballguys 2025 Rookie Draft Guide, our 2025 Player Projections, and Draft Rankings.

It's never too early to start, so head back next week for another Fantasy Notebook.

Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can find Harris on the Footballguys Audible channel and listen to him during the season on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.

Follow @footballdiehard