Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.

We Don't Have the Information We Need: Micro Edition

I discovered fantasy football in 1986. It was terrific, and I loved it. Nonetheless, as I assessed the aftermath of my first fantasy football game, one thing became readily apparent: We didn't have the necessary information to do it right. 

That realization led me to make providing that information to other fantasy managers my life’s work. 

Now, more than 30 years later, there's no end to the information available to me. 

That's the macro view.

Ironically, on a micro level, I now find myself drafting in the dark -- by choice.

It's early April. While most free-agent moves are behind us, some are still to come. And the NFL Draft is two weeks out.

And that's precisely why this moment matters.

Early best ball isn't about perfection. It's about identifying mispriced talent before the market adjusts. Even if you're not in the draft rooms yet, tracking current Average Draft Position (ADP) trends -- and how they shift -- helps set your baselines and sharpen your projections.

We've already done an initial assessment of the quarterback and running back values. Now it's time to get a feel for the next position on our list. Steel yourself for this one because . . .

Receiving Talent Runs Deep

In early best ball drafts, wide receivers are flying off the board -- and for good reason. Elite wideouts with week-winning upside and consistency you can build around dominate the first round.

But the real beauty of the position is its depth.

Whether you're going receiver-heavy early, anchoring with a stud running back, or leaning into a zero-WR build, value exists in every tier -- from veterans with sliding ADPs to breakout candidates in uncertain roles to second-year players on the verge of a leap.

Today, we're breaking down the best WR values across the board -- helping you stack smart without chasing ADP . . . 

Let's dive in . . .

One Stands Alone

No need to overthink this, people. There's a reason Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase is the current 1.01 in early Underdog best-ball drafts (access the full Footballguys 2025 Underdog Best-Ball Average Draft Position list here).

Chase joined an exclusive club in 2024, becoming the sixth receiver to lead the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in a single season to win the Triple Crown. Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharpe, Steve Smith Sr., and Cooper Kupp are the only other receivers to accomplish the feat since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970.

Chase posted 127 receptions for 1,708 yards and 17 TDs, finishing with a dominant 403 PPR points -- 85.5 more than WR2 Justin Jefferson. According to SI.com's Michael Fabiano, that's the biggest gap between the first and second wideouts since 2021, when Kupp scored 95.2 more points than Davante Adams.

In addition, Chase had two of the top-three wideout scores of the season with a 45.1-point effort in Week 14 and 55.4 in Week 10, the highest total for a wideout all year. 

No surprise then that Chase is generally the first player off board, ahead of running backs Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson. Naturally, that means you're not getting many shares of Chase unless you're drafting very early in the first round.

But I have good news. Round 1 is loaded with high-end talent at wide receiver that allows fantasy investors to . . .

Start Building On The Outside

Including Chase, eight wide receivers are being drafted in Round 1. Here's the list:

1.1        WR1    Ja'Marr Chase    
4.0        WR2    Justin Jefferson    
6.0        WR3    CeeDee Lamb
7.8        WR4    Puka Nacua
8.8        WR5    Nico Collins
9.6        WR6    Malik Nabers
9.9        WR7    Amon-Ra St. Brown
9.9        WR8    Brian Thomas Jr.

It's a target-rich environment. If you miss out on Chase, don't fret. You'll find another high-end option waiting for you. Let's examine the possibilities . . .

The QB-Proof Option

Viking second-year QB J.J. McCarthy is by no means a proven commodity. But that's not scaring drafters off Justin Jefferson. Nor should it. The former LSU star has shown that he can produce at a high level regardless of who the quarterback is.  

His 317.5 points represented Jefferson's lowest full-season total since his rookie year when he had 274.2 points. Still, he's produced 1,493 fantasy points in his first five NFL seasons -- the most of any wide receiver in NFL history. Randy Moss comes in second in the Super Bowl era with 1,481.2 points, and Rice is third with 1,423.5 points.

With a first-time starter at quarterback this season, it's worth noting Jefferson's success has come while catching passes from Kirk Cousins, Sean Mannion, Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall, and Sam Darnold. In 2023, when Cousins went down with a torn Achilles in Week 8, Jefferson returned from a hamstring injury of his own in Week 14 and delivered WR3 numbers -- scoring 18.6 points per game -- playing with Dobbs, Hall, and Mullens. 

Coaching is a factor here. As ESPN.com's Mike Clay noted, three of Kevin O'Connell's past four offenses have scored at least 80 percent of their TDs through the air (that includes 2023 and 2024). All four offenses were very pass-heavy.

He's a great play with the fourth pick overall, but . . . 

Last Year's Consensus WR1 Awaits

Losing Dak Prescott midseason was a tough hurdle for CeeDee Lamb to clear. Fabiano notes that in Lamb's eight games with Prescott under center, he averaged 6.4 catches, 87.5 yards, and 18.9 fantasy points. He was the WR7 during that time. In his final seven games, all played without Prescott, Lamb averaged 6.8 catches, 76.3 yards, and 16.5 points. He dropped to WR11 before missing the final two games with an injured shoulder.

Lamb, the consensus WR1 heading into 2024, went from averaging an NFL-best 23.7 points per game in 2023 to 17.6 points per game this past season.

Still, Footballguy Dave Kluge views the soon-to-be 26-year-old has entrenched himself as a target magnet who can win at every level of the field. "There should be no questions about his talent," Kluge explained, "and we've seen what he can accomplish in a full year with a healthy Prescott.

"If there's any draft-day discount in 2025 drafts, savvy fantasy managers will be quick to pounce on a slipping Lamb . . ."

Apples And Oranges? 

It's easy to envision Puka Nacua losing opportunities to Davante Adams. After all, Jets receiver Garrett Wilson, who finished the 2024 season as WR9, was WR22 during the 11-game stretch after Adams' arrival in New York last season. 

But is that a fair comparison?

For me, Nacua is in a better spot due to his established chemistry with Matthew Stafford and a prominent role in Sean McVay's offense. 

From Week 10 on last season, Nacua drew an impressive 37 percent target share (11.3 per game). He was at or above 31 percent (or eight targets) in all 10 games. Clay believes Nacua remains well positioned for another significant target share thanks to McVay's habit of leaning heavily on his core players. 

In fact, Clay contends the only slight red flag with Nacua is touchdowns, as he has only nine in 28 games, and he was limited to six end zone targets (53rd at WR) in 2024. A leap in that area is what he'll need in order to get to elite fantasy production. And if you're concerned that Nacua going as the WR4 with the seventh pick overall is a bit rich for you, there will be others waiting -- some with already-demonstrated upside . . .

Field-Stretching Talent

Nico Collins, who went into the 2024 season after a breakout 2023 campaign in which he caught 80 passes for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns in 15 regular season games, has provided a strong downfield presence for Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. 

This past season, the Texans won the AFC South division title again. 

Despite missing five games with a hamstring injury, Collins caught 68 passes for 1,006 yards and seven touchdowns. 

Collins went on to set a franchise playoff record with 122 receiving yards in a playoff win over the Los Angeles Chargers on seven receptions as he surpassed DeAndre Hopkins' playoff single-game record. 

Before his leg injury, Collins was on pace to finish the season with over 100 catches and 2,000 receiving yards. The 6-4, 222-pounder, who boasts 4.4 speed, was WR3 through Week 5 . . . 

Would You Be My Nabers?

Despite missing two games and playing with four different quarterbacks (Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock, and Tim Boyle) in New York, Nabers finished his first season as a pro with 109 total catches -- a rookie wide receiver record. He bested Nacua, who had 105 receptions the season before.

Nabers scored 273.6 fantasy points, which ranked sixth at the position in 2024 and ranks eighth all-time for rookies. Nabers was WR6 with 18.1 points per game. He has WR1 upside any given week -- and perhaps even bigger picture with an upgrade at quarterback -- whether it's Russell Wilson or the pass-happy Jameis Winston -- coming . . .

New Playcaller A Cause For Concern?

During the 2024 season, Amon-Ra St. Brown tallied 115 receptions for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns. He even added a passing touchdown and a seven-yard score, a testament to offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's creativity. Adding to his impressive resume, St. Brown recorded the third-lowest drop rate among receivers with 1,000 or more yards, a remarkable 0.7 percent.

St. Brown, who has three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons under his belt, joined Larry Fitzgerald as the only wide receivers in NFL History to have multiple seasons with 100-plus catches, 1,000-plus receiving yards, and 10-plus touchdowns in their first four years in the league. So it's surprising to see him going at the tail end of the first round between a pair of less-proven second-year players. 

While St. Brown is pumped about the passing game concepts and potential with the new coordinator John Morton at the helm of the offense, fantasy investors appear to be backing off a bit from last year's WR3, with former play-caller Ben Johnson now plying his trade in Chicago . . .

No Doubting Thomas

Brian Thomas Jr. was a bright spot in an otherwise bleak season for the Jaguars. Despite being the fourth receiver off the board in the first round in last April's NFL Draft, the former LSU star was the most prolific of the class, with 82 receptions for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. He finished the year as WR5 with 280 fantasy points. 

Thomas had 13 weeks of WR3 or better production. That includes six games as WR12 or better with three top-5 finishes. He had five WR2 finishes. 

He hit those numbers despite a slow start. Thomas scored just 35.9 points on 11 receptions (3.7 per game) in his first three contests, but only Chase, St. Brown, and Jefferson outscored him over the final 14 games when Thomas averaged 5.4 catches per week.

According to Fabiano, only Moss, Chase, Nacua, and Odell Beckham Jr. scored more points in their respective first NFL seasons. Meanwhile, new Jaguars head coach Liam Cohen told reporters his passing game will "run through" Thomas. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are gone, and, as NBC Sports' Matthew Berry pointed out, in the four games both Kirk and Engram missed in 2024 from Weeks 15-18, Thomas averaged 25.5 PPG -- making him WR1 over that span . . .

Who's The Best Of The Bunch?

Look. There is no wrong answer here. I want Chase but won't get the first pick in every draft. So, for me, the answer is easy: If you don't get the one you love, love the one you're (left) with . . .

Round 2: More Quality Talent With Ample Upside

The second round has some intriguing prospects -- including a couple of veterans who have fallen out of their usual first-round spots.

16.3        WR09    Drake London
17.8        WR10    A.J. Brown
18.9        WR11    Ladd McConkey    
21.9        WR12    Tyreek Hill
23.3        WR13    Jaxon Smith-Njigba    
24.7        WR14    Tee Higgins    

Let's sort this group out and pick a favorite . . .

London Calling

Heading into his fourth season as a pro, Drake London has over 100 targets each season and has averaged 12.6 yards per reception. In 2024, he had the third-most targets and second-most yards before catch. His 1,271 receiving yards ranked fourth in the NFL. The end result was a breakout season with career-bests across the board and a WR5 finish.

If you're looking for reasons to believe he's still on an upward trajectory, Fabiano noted that in his first 14 games last year, all started by Kirk Cousins, London averaged 8.9 targets, 5.8 catches, and 15.2 points. Over this final three games, started by rookie Michael Penix Jr., London averaged 13 targets, 7.3 catches, and 23.1 fantasy points. 

Brown Slides On Diminished Volume

Despite missing three games due to injury, A.J. Brown led the Eagles with 1,079 receiving yards. He also ranked first in receiving average with 16.1 yards per catch (on a minimum of 60 catches) and third in receiving yards per game (83.0), behind Chase (100.5) and Jefferson (90.2).

The concern? Volume.

Jalen Hurts threw 104 fewer passes in 2024 than in 2023 -- and 99 fewer than in 2022). In 2024, Hurts attempted 30-plus passes in just five games (compared to eight in 2022).

The reason? Saquon Barkley. 

Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards -- just 101 short of Eric Dickerson's all-time NFL record. With that ground game rolling, Philly didn't need Hurts to air it out. It's fair to wonder if that won't be the case again in 2025 . . .

Coming Of Age

Fabiano notes that Ladd McConkey started his rookie season off slowly, averaging just 6.5 targets, four receptions, 44.2 yards, and 10.4 fantasy points. During that time, he was the WR45. In his final 10 games, however, the player I like to call "The Child Prodigy" averaged 7.3 targets, 5.8 catches, 88.4 yards, and 17.8 fantasy points. 

In those 10 contests, McConkey was the eighth-best fantasy wideout.

His strong finish caught most by surprise. However, Footballguy and Rookie Scouting Portfolio author Matt Waldman was not among them. 

Heading into last season, Waldman advised readers that "McConkey is an excellent talent with an ideal fit in an offense with a history of leveraging receivers with his skills. He's paired with a good quarterback who is accustomed to working with a similar style of receiver." 

The key, however, is hidden deeper in the mix. 

Current Chargers play-caller Greg Roman has been an offensive coordinator for 10 years in the NFL, and there have been five years where the team's leading receiver has been fantasy-relevant as at least a WR2. This doesn't sound like a high success rate. Still, Waldman noted that Roman has produced a lead receiver with fantasy starter production in five of six seasons where there wasn't a significant factor undermining the personnel or direction of the offense. 

And there's a unifying theme among them.

Like McConkey, who lined up in the slot 63.3 percent of the time as a rookie, those receivers -- Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Marquise Brown, and Devin Duvernay -- also saw significant time in the slot.

Even if his WR11 ADP feels like a slight overpay, it's not that far off McConkey's WR14 finish last year . . . 

Down Hill

No player had more receiving yards in 2022 and 2023 than Tyreek Hill's 3,509. But 2024 was not kind to the veteran speedster. He managed 81 catches for 959 yards, snapping a three-year streak of 100-plus catch seasons and ending a four-year run of totaling 1,000-plus yards. His six touchdowns tied a career low, and his 11.8 yards per reception was lower than only 2021 and his contribution as a rookie.

In the 11 games Hill played with Tua Tagovailoa under center, he averaged 15.5 points. In the other six games, while Tua was injured, Hill averaged 9.6 points. 

So, even in games he played with Tagovailoa, Hill's points-per-game average was eight points lower than in 2023.

It wasn't great for Miami.

It was arguably worse for fantasy investors who selected Hill early in the first round of their 2024 drafts. Drafted to be a prime-time player, Hill instead proved frustrating for fantasy managers, finishing as WR18 with 12.2 points per game while being held to single-digit scoring seven times. 

All that said, he's just a year removed from league-winning production. If you're using a Hero RB or WR Heavy approach, landing Hill near the 2/3 turn as your WR2 gives you plenty of latitude to mitigate the risk (both before and after the selection) . . .

Building On A Breakout

As SI.com noted, the Seahawks offense will have a new look, as Darnold will be the new starting quarterback, and DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are no longer on the team. So, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is now the unquestioned No. 1 option in the passing game for new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. 

The signing of Cooper Kupp, however, adds some intrigue.

According to Fantasy Points Data, 65 percent of Kupp's routes and 84 percent of Smith-Njigba's were run from the slot. However, Footballguy Jeff Blaylock believes Kubiak can effectively utilize two star slot receivers. As part of that, Blaylock expects Smith-Njigba to line up outside more because Metcalf and Lockett are gone. 

That makes sense. The question is, will JSN, who drew a 23 percent target share last year (with 137 looks) continue to get the kind of volume that led to a WR10 finish on the season last year? 

If so, last year's WR10 finish suggests this year's WR13 ADP is a bit low . . . 

Playing Second Fiddle, But Playing It Well

As ESPN.com's Ben Baby noted, Higgins has played an integral role in helping shift the Bengals from the worst team in the NFL into a championship contender. It's helped Higgins, too. In his five seasons in Cincinnati, he's been one of the league's most productive receivers. During his time there, Higgins ranks 18th in total receiving yards (4,595) and 14th in touchdowns (34).

The 26-year-old has battled injury issues in recent years. Higgins has played in 12 games in each of the last two seasons. Baby pointed out that several of those injuries have been soft-tissue problems, which the wideout said he planned to address this offseason. Even with the missed time last year, Higgins hauled in a career-high 10 touchdown receptions to go with 73 catches for 911 yards.

More importantly, Higgins was sixth among wideouts on a point-per-game basis (18.5 PPG). That total was better than Nabers, Lamb, Mike Evans, and Brown.

The key factor in that? 

The Bengals run the pass-heaviest offense in the NFL. According to Clay, Cincinnati called pass at a rate 10 percentage points above expected in 2022, +7 percent in 2023, and +9 percent in 2024. That won't change in 2025 with Joe Burrow under center and Chase and Higgins locked in with new, long-term deals . . . 

Who's The Right Pick?

My preference in a vacuum would be London. I love the anticipated volume and upward trajectory he's demonstrated. Still, Higgins is the better play for me in terms of value. 

Round 3 Prospects Carry A Bit More Risk

Fewer candidates are going in the third round, but more questions surround them. Here's the list:

26.4        WR15    Garrett Wilson
27.1        WR16    Terry McLaurin    
29.2        WR17    DJ Moore
31.7        WR18    Marvin Harrison Jr.    
34.3        WR19    Mike Evans    

Even with some uncertainty, there's value to be found . . .

Reunited!

As Clay reminded readers, Garrett Wilson averaged 10.8 targets per game (29 percent share) in six games prior to Davante Adams' arrival last season. In 11 games with Adams, Wilson averaged 7.9 targets per game (23 percent). Considering he handled a 25 percent share as a rookie and 30 percent in 2023, it's fair to say that the pre-Adams usage figures to be more indicative of what we'll see in 2025. 

And that will be super-important with dual-threat QB Justin Fields under center. 

In 2020, a pandemic-shortened season, Wilson caught 43 passes for 723 yards and six touchdowns in eight games with Fields as the Buckeyes' starter. Over two seasons playing together in Columbus, the duo combined for 11 touchdowns. 

That's good, but not great. The knock on Fields is that his fantasy value comes from his rushing ability. He's not a high-end passer.

Still, in his first season with the Bears, DJ Moore pulled in 76 passes for 1,153 yards and scored 9 touchdowns in 13 games with Fields in 2023. While Tyson Bagent chipped in on that career-best season for Moore, Fields was the driving force behind Moore finishing the season as WR6.

In New York, it will be up to first-time offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand to devise a system that capitalizes on Fields' strengths. It will be a departure for Engstrand, who came from the Detroit Lions with Jared Goff, a pure pocket passer with limited mobility. Look for more run-pass options, zone reads, and one-read pass plays. 

It's reasonable to assume that Garrett will be the first read more often than not. . .

A Commanding Presence

Washington's Terry McLaurin finished 2024 as the seventh-highest-scoring receiver in fantasy with career-best marks in catch rate (70 percent) and touchdowns (13). According to Yahoo analyst Matt Harmon, that tells why McLaurin had the season he did. 

"Nothing about him as a player changed," Harmon wrote. "He simply saw more efficient targets than ever before in his career and played in the healthiest offensive environment by a long shot."

McLaurin had demonstrated for years that he was capable of this type of statistical season that would place him among the NFL's top wideouts. Now he has the quarterback to bring it all to fruition . . .

Mo(o)re To Come In Chicago

DJ Moore will be a fixture in Ben Johnson's reimagined offense after leading the Bears in receiving yards each of the past two seasons. Despite the team's offensive struggles, he finished with a career-high 98 receptions last season.

Strong blocking will be essential to thrive in Johnson's system.

That won't be a problem. According to Pro Football Focus, Moore earned the ninth-best run-blocking grade among wide receivers who played at least 200 blocking snaps in 2024. The Bears also leaned into his physicality, deploying him as both a pass-catcher and a blocker in passing plays close to the line of scrimmage . . . 

Ready To Make A Year 2 Leap?

In 2024, Cardinals rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. went into the season with a WR9 ADP, which made him the 15th pick overall. An immediate breakout for the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL Draft seemed inevitable. Instead, Harrison's first year was more about trying to find his way. 

The former Ohio State standout hauled in 62 passes for 885 yards and eight touchdowns. He finished the year as WR30 in point-per-reception (PPR) formats. But even that finish is misleading, as a pair of outlier performances inflated it. Harrison finished as the WR1 overall with a 29-point effort in Week 2 and landed at WR5 in Week 5 when he delivered 23.1 fantasy points.

Including those two games, Harrison yielded fantasy-relevant weeks -- WR36 or better -- just eight times all season. His 11.7 points per game ranked 42nd overall . . .

That's not to say it was a bad season.

Harrison's eight touchdowns led the team (and tied the franchise rookie record held by Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin). Harrison ranked second on the team in targets, catches, and yards behind only star tight end Trey McBride. But as Darren Urban of the team's official website notes, "expectations were different . . ."

It's safe to say the Cardinals are motivated to maximize their investment. The club will win more often if Harrison's full potential is unlocked. The constant refrain is the jump a rookie can make from Year 1 to Year 2. That will be the hope for Harrison.

Harrison is far more likely to return value on his draft price this year for the obvious reason -- he'll be cheaper. For me, Harrison is a buy at his current ADP as a high-upside WR2 with breakout potential . . . 

How Quickly We Forget

As the team's official website recounted, after racking up 1,255 yards in 2023 for his 10th straight 1,000-yard season, Evans had a trickier path to the mark this year due to a hamstring injury that cost him three games and most of a fourth. Evans returned to action in Week 12 and still needed 665 yards over the final seven games to get to quadruple digits.  

He proceeded to average 96.7 yards per game over the next six weeks, with a 159-yard outing against the Chargers and 118 against the Panthers, to put his total at 915 yards heading into the regular-season finale. Think about that finish. Despite the missed time, Evans was a fantasy WR1 last season (WR12 overall). 

He was the 26th player (and 15th receiver) taken in fantasy drafts in 2024. Now, he's fallen further this year. 

And if he does, this is where I tell you acquiring players who exceed their expected return on investment is the path to fantasy success . . .

Who's The Right Pick?

For me, it's Evans all day. He's the cheapest of the bunch, a consistent high-end producer who has finished as a WR1 in four of the last five seasons . . . 

This And That: Irresistible Later-Round Favorites

Once we get past Round 3, the values start to stand out more. Again, I recommend jumping into some drafts but also reviewing the full Footballguys 2025 Underdog Best-Ball ADP data. But for now, here are some of my favorite picks later in your drafts . . .

Davante Adams Drastically Underpriced

The 32-year-old Adams is coming off his fifth-consecutive 1,000-yard season, accomplishing the feat across three games with the Raiders (18 receptions for 209 yards) and 11 with the Jets (67 for 854) after being traded from Las Vegas to New York during the 2024 season. He also caught eight touchdowns in addition to those 85 receptions for 1,063 yards.

It's reasonable at this point in their careers to consider Adams and upgrade over Kupp.

SI.com's Brock Vierra contends Adams solves an immediate problem for their team: Their red-zone inefficiencies. Vierra explained, "The Rams would struggle to punch the ball in for six within twenty yards, so with Adams, they have a matchup nightmare, and they can dominate defenders on fade routes and jump ball scenarios. His presence should open up more running lanes for Kyren Williams as well."

It's a fair point. Since coming into the NFL, Adams has had six seasons with 10-plus touchdown receptions. Vierra notes that only Hall of Famers Rice, Moss, Terrell Owens, and Marvin Harrison Sr. have more. 

Meanwhile, Berry pointed out that the Rams have had multiple top 24 fantasy wide receivers in PPG in three of Stafford's four seasons in Los Angeles. The Rams have led the league in WR target share in three of the past four seasons and were top five in that department in the other.

Adams finished the 2024 season as WR13 with a 17.1-point per-game average (11th-highest at the position). During his 11-game run in New York, working alongside Wilson and with veteran QB Aaron Rodgers, Adams was WR5 with a 17.7-point per game average. He's currently going at the Round 3/4 turn . . .

Rocky Mountain (Not) High (Enough)

As ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold noted, Courland Sutton was essential to the Broncos' offense this past season. He was crucial in the development of rookie quarterback Bo Nix, leading Denver in receptions (81), receiving yards (1,081) and touchdowns (eight).

Those figures far exceeded every other Bronco, as the 29-year-old Sutton finished with 40 more receptions, 578 more receiving yards, and two more touchdowns than the Broncos' next-best wide receiver.

More importantly, the chemistry between Sutton and Nix was difference-making. Nix has credited Sutton with playing a significant role in his transition from a rookie quarterback who didn't have a touchdown pass until Week 4 to the player whose 29 touchdown passes were the second most by a rookie in NFL history.

Sutton was the player Nix trusted most in virtually every situation. 

Sutton was tied for 21st in the league in tight-window receptions -- where the nearest defender is less than a yard away at the catch -- and was the only Broncos player among the league's top 90 in the category. He also finished with 135 targets, 65 more than the Broncos' No. 2 player (running back Javonte Williams) and 80 more than the Broncos' next-highest wide receiver (Devaughn Vele).

Going as WR29 in Round 5, Sutton, who finished last year as WR11, is capable of easily outperforming this draft spot . . .

Front-Line Production At Fifth-Round Prices

Chris Godwin was WR2 through Week 7 last season before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. He was also in the top five among wide receivers in receptions per game (7.1), receiving yards per game (82.3), and targets per game (8.9). 

Meanwhile, as Berry suggested, it's hard to get too concerned about the looming coordinator change with Coen moving on to Jacksonville. His replacement, Josh Grizzard, was Tampa Bay's 2024 passing game coordinator, and Baker Mayfield remains under center.

Whatever concerns Fantasy Nation might have about Godwin's recovery from that dislocated ankle should have gone by the wayside when the Buccaneers re-signed Godwin to a contract with $44 million guaranteed.

He is flying well under the radar as the WR32 in early Underdog best ball drafts . . .

Set Up For Ongoing Success

While the San Francisco 49ers struggled to secure six wins last season, Jauan Jennings had his most productive campaign. He set career highs in targets (113), receptions (77), receiving yards (975), and touchdowns (6). Now entering the final year of his contract, Jennings is in line to be the 49ers' top wideout in Week 1, especially with Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a significant knee injury. 

It's hard to imagine Aiyuk being 100 percent by Week 1, and Deebo Samuel Sr., who drew a 20 percent target share when healthy last year, was traded to the Commanders.

How good can Jennings be? 

In Week 3 against the Los Angeles Rams, he posted a career-high 175 yards and three touchdowns on 11 receptions. Jennings also recorded five games with 88 or more receiving yards. In the nine games he played last season in which he saw more than 70 percent of the snaps, he averaged 17.9 PPG. Had he not missed two midseason games due to a hip injury or not been ejected in Week 18, Jennings likely would have surpassed 1,000 yards for the first time in his career.

As Footballguy Rachel Tootsiepop wrote: "Ricky Pearsall showed promising flashes as a rookie last year, especially toward the end of the season, but I believe Jennings will command the receiving room."

I agree with that assessment, and I'm thrilled to land Jennings, currently being drafted as WR35 on Underdog, in Round 6 . . .

An Overlooked Commodity

Paired with rookie sensation Brock Bowers in 2024, Meyers surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the first time. He was also responsible for 52 first downs and four touchdowns. 

But it goes beyond that.

In his first two seasons since arriving in Las Vegas, Meyers has recorded 1,834 receiving yards in 158 receptions. He also has played 15 or more games each year, remaining a healthy option for the offense. As Berry noted, Meyers was WR21 in points per game over those two years.

Last year's totals came despite Bowers' record-setting output and with Gardner Minshew II, Aidan O'Connell, and Desmond Ridder as their triggermen. Expecting Meyers to return value as WR41 (with a seventh-round investment) seems like a fait accompli with a proven, steady veteran like Geno Smith under center . . .

Big-Play Threat, Bargain-Basement Price

As Clay suggested, Rashid Shaheed was arguably the Saints' No. 1 in 2024. In five full games together, Chris Olave produced 28 targets and 277 air yards, compared to 34 and 580 air yards for Shaheed. In his six complete games, Shaheed handled a solid 24 percent target share and reached 15 fantasy points four times.

Had he kept up his six-game pace (which included one game where he scored zero), Shaheed would have put up 226.1 fantasy points. That would have ranked him as the WR17, ahead of Hill. He's currently available as WR52 in Round 9.

Worth watching: Derek Carr's status for the 2025 season is suddenly in question. Carr is dealing with a shoulder injury that threatens his availability for the New Orleans Saints' 2025 season, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo reported Friday. Carr is weighing options that include surgery . . . 

Get Lucky In Round 13

Thielen, who hadn't eclipsed the 1000-yard mark since the 2018 campaign with the Minnesota Vikings, hauled in 103 receptions for 1,014 yards and three touchdowns while appearing in all 17 games in his first season in Carolina.

Thielen was limited to just 10 games in his second season in Carolina in '24 after suffering a hamstring injury during a Week 3 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. But, after returning in Week 12, Thielen proceeded to post 50-plus receiving yards in five of the Panthers' last seven games. 

He finished the year with 48 catches, 615 yards, and five touchdowns. Thielen was WR12 over that seven-game stretch. It's hard to go wrong landing that kind of potential as WR67 in Round 13 . . . 

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of stories. I like to use this spot to encapsulate that broad expanse here.

The Good: Teacher, Teacher

Pete Carroll has a new job but hasn't left the old one behind.

As reported by the L.A. Times, Carroll is still teaching his USC class, The Game is Life. It has three sessions left, 56 students, and over 300 applicants.

He's brought in big-name guests like Steve Kerr, Jason Sudeikis, and Rainn Wilson.

"I said I'd be here for them," Carroll told the Times. "I stayed committed. Nothing got in the way."

He's only missed one class -- attending via Zoom while at the Scouting Combine.

Students are all-in. Elina Khoshnevis said the class "completely changed my life," and called Carroll unforgettable: "More than any professor, any class. I'll never forget the knowledge he's shared."

USC's loss is the Raiders' gain. 

Vegas may lack talent, but they've got one of the league's top coaches -- and it's easy to believe he'll make an instant impact . . .

The Bad: Is It Over for Watson?

Browns owner Jimmy Haslam finally said it: the Deshaun Watson trade was a bust.

"We thought we had the quarterback. We didn't," Haslam admitted.

Watson's still under contract through 2026, but his future looks shaky. After two Achilles injuries, 2025 will be another lost season. The Browns owe him $46 million guaranteed, with $135 million in cap hits pushed to later years.

Will he play again -- anywhere? An NFC exec told ESPN's Daniel Oyefusi, "If released, I don't see anyone picking him up."

Watson says he'll be back. In an Instagram video, he's seen training: "Everyone doubts me . . . But I believe in myself. I'll be way better than before."

It's a steep fall for a top-12 pick and three-time Pro Bowler. But at 29, a redemption arc isn't off the table -- but probably not in Cleveland.

The Browns, who signed Joe Flacco on Friday and traded for Kenny Pickett earlier this offseason, could add further at the position with the second pick overall in this month's NFL Draft . . .

The Ugly: Preying On The Weak

Baltimore is suing DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, accusing them of targeting vulnerable gamblers with deceptive tactics.

The complaint says they lure users with bonus bets -- only valid for a week-encouraging fast betting. Then, they use data to pinpoint and exploit problem gamblers, violating the city's Consumer Protection Ordinance.

Filed in state court, the suit paints a picture of aggressive tactics disguised as marketing.

It's something those of us who like to spin our fantasy pursuits out into the world or prop best and other legal sports wagering should be more mindful of. It's also something the purveyors of said entertainment might want to rein in before things get uglier . . .

The Final Word

That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. First-time readers will be pleased to learn you're only scratching the surface of what's available at Footballguys. We're hard at work year-round to help our subscribers gain an edge on the competition. 

In addition to a full range of interesting strategy and news articles, our real-time Player Movement Tracker and Fantasy Outlooks landing page are available now. We also released Version 2 of our Footballguys 2025 Rookie Draft Guide. Download it for free now. Our 2025 Player Projections and Preseason Draft Rankings are up and running, too.

Remember: It's never too early to start, so head back next week for another edition of the Fantasy Notebook.

Bob Harris was the first-ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can catch Harris' "On The Hotseat" every Tuesday on the Footballguys Audible channel and listen to him during the season on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.

Follow @footballdiehard