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Perceptions, Misperceptions, And Realities
The 2025 free-agent signing period started with a bang. You'll find a full accounting of it here at Footballguys on our real-time Player Movement Tracker. We also add articles and analyses on the most fantasy-relevant moves as they go down.
While it's not over, we've seen enough movement to assess the fallout.
That means picking winners and losers.
I know. Everybody picks winners and losers (although few do it as well as Footballguy Sigmund Bloom does here). But we don't all have to pick the same winners and losers.
Nor do we have to follow the usual conventions when we do it.
Remember, perceptions -- and misperceptions -- become reality quickly in the best-ball rooms and social media silos we hang out in this time of year. In addition, we tend to focus on the narrowest band of outcomes.
But the fantasy fallout always extends beyond the players moving. That being the case, we'll focus as much on collateral issues as the players getting all the cash and most of the attention.
Let's dive in . . .
Perception: Adams Cuts Into Puka's Workload
Davante Adams, who left a Jets team going nowhere and got everything he wanted when the Rams signed him, is a winner.
Adams wanted to play on the West Coast, and that box was checked. He wanted to make $20 million a year. He got it. As a bonus, Adams wound up in an offense with a star quarterback in Matthew Stafford, an innovative play-caller in head coach Sean McVay, and a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver on the other side of the offense in Puka Nacua.
I love this move for Adams.
But I might like it more as a Nacua investor if the arrival of a big-name receiver like Adams takes the top off Puka's price.
It doesn't have to be a lot.
Nacua has been going as WR4 in early Underdog best-ball drafts with the seventh pick overall.
Could Adams' arrival have the same impact on Nacua's Average Draft Position (ADP) that the addition of Blake Corum in last April's draft had on Kyren Williams' ADP?
The Reality
Williams was RB2 in points per game, handling 21.7 of the Rams' 28 backfield touches per game in 12 appearances in 2023. Seeing him as a first-round pick -- perhaps even RB2 after Christian McCaffrey -- was a reasonable position. But after the team injected Corum into the mix, Williams' ADP went from 13th overall to 20th.
Even if we don't get as much of a discount on Nacua, it's reasonable to expect a slight haircut.
Remember, Garrett Wilson, who finished the 2024 season as WR9, was WR22 during the 11-game stretch after Adams' arrival in New York last season. Nacua is in a better spot with established chemistry with Stafford and a prominent role in McVay's offense. However, seeing him fall later in the first round or sliding into the early second round would be fantastic.
Perception: Commanders All In On Daniels
As NFL.com's Jeffri Chadiha noted, the Commanders entered the offseason in great shape: They had reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels on the roster, plus roughly $81 million in projected salary cap space. General manager Adam Peters had the potential to make a lot of smart decisions with that money, and he did just that, agreeing to a trade for wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. last week, then re-signing tight end Zach Ertz, and agreeing to a trade for former Houston Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil on Monday.
The addition of Samuel gives Daniels another proven receiver who can take pressure off Terry McLaurin and be a creative chess piece for offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. The return of Ertz gives Daniels that reliable intermediate target that makes life so easy for young quarterbacks. The trade for Tunsil means Daniels has one of the best left tackles in the game, protecting his blind side.
Are there concerns?
According to SI.com's Albert Breer, while Tunsil was well-liked in the Texans' building, they didn't view him as "a tone-setter." In addition, as Footballguy Jason Wood pointed out, Tunsil led the NFL in overall penalties and false starts last year. Washington is gambling on its culture with this move and that putting Tunsil in a group with guys like Daniels and McLaurin will get the best out of him. Breer suggested the questions we have about Tunsil we once had about Trent Williams.
Peters was part of the group that landed Williams in San Francisco five years ago, and we know how that turned out. Williams is widely considered one of the best offensive tackles in NFL history.
All in all, these moves suggest the Commanders not only realize how good Daniels might be, they're ready to push all their chips into the pot to leverage his unique talents and build on his remarkable rookie season.
The Reality
Daniels' rookie season was historic -- 891 rushing yards (most ever for a rookie QB), 3,568 passing yards, and 25 touchdowns (including 15 in his last five full games). He also led Washington to the NFC Championship Game, becoming just the sixth rookie QB to do so.
Imagine what he'll do with more experience and a better supporting cast.
In his initial 2025 Footballguy Projections, Wood imagines Daniels as the QB1 overall this season, scoring an average of 23.8 points per game.
It's bold. Just like the Commanders' moves have been so far this offseason . . .
Perception: Bears Gearing Up For Williams' Breakout
As Profootballtalk.com's Josh Alper framed it, "The Bears haven't been coy about where they want to improve this offseason."
Of course, anybody who watched them play in 2024 could figure it out, too.
Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, was sacked 68 times. That's the third-most in NFL history. Only David Carr, who was sacked 76 times in 2002, and Randall Cunningham, sacked 72 times in 1986, were sacked more times in a season.
Williams also lost 466 yards on sacks, the fourth-most yards lost on sacks ever.
Williams acknowledged that many of those sacks were his fault, not a reflection of the Bears' offensive line. Still, upgrading that unit was a priority this offseason.
That's why Chicago agreed to trade for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson before the start of free agency and then moved quickly to reach an agreement with center Drew Dalman this week. New head coach Ben Johnson, after benefiting from having arguably the best offensive line in football in Detroit -- Footballguy Matt Bitonti ranked them No. 1 for 2024, clearly understands the importance of that unit.
"We want some tough, some gritty, some dirty individuals, and we feel pretty good about the guys we got," Johnson said. "'Smart' is a word that comes to mind, particularly with the interior players. We would love to have some versatility to our scheme, some multiplicity if you will. . . . Combined with the coaches that we've already put together for that room, I feel really good about the style of play we'll have this year."
The message behind the Bears' early moves makes it clear what they want that identity to be.
Landing Johnson, one of the best play-callers in football, adds to the fun.
The Reality
We saw how the addition of high-end interior offensive linemen Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis eventually helped Bryce Young get on track in Carolina last season. We also saw what an upgrade at coordinator did for Williams last year. We saw immediate improvement when Thomas Brown took over for Shane Waldron after Week 10. During his first three games with Brown in his ear -- Weeks 11 through 13, Williams was QB4, averaging 22.4 points per game. Narrow that subset to Weeks 12 and 13, and things get even better. Williams was QB3 with an average of 25.5 points per game.
So even though Williams finished the season as QB15, we all got a taste of what's possible under the right circumstances.
All of which explains Williams' QB10 ADP in early Underdog best-ball drafts, which matches his projection here at Footballguys . . .
Perception: Vikings Receivers Face QB Whiplash
Sticking with the NFC North, where they apparently realize the value of offensive line play, the Vikings didn't mess around in the initial 48 hours of free agency, adding ex-Colts Ryan Kelly and Will Fries to the interior offensive line. It will be essential to protect their new starting quarterback, almost certainly J.J. McCarthy.
After all, the 10th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft is unproven, returning from a torn meniscus that required two surgeries and a rehabilitation timeline that put his return off until this year.
So, the Vikings' receiving corps, led by Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, will have to adjust after a successful season with Sam Darnold filling in for the injured McCarthy.
The duo combined for 2,408 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns as Minnesota's passing offense ranked top-six in production and top-five in touchdowns.
Darnold, of course, signed a three-year deal with Seattle worth up to $100.5 million with $55 million in guarantees.
The Vikings were never going to pay that with McCarthy in the wings and Darnold tapering off toward the end of the season (when, in fairness, his protection tapered as well). But, as Epstein wrote, "Moving from Kirk Cousins to Darnold to McCarthy in three years is a bit of quarterback whiplash for receivers needing to sync with their throwers."
Because of that, Epstein believes Jefferson and Addison face an adjustment period at best and perhaps a dropoff.
The Reality
During his five years with the Vikings, Jefferson has caught passes from Kirk Cousins, Sean Mannion, Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall, and Darnold. He's shown that he can produce at a high level regardless of who the quarterback is, especially in the three years that head coach Kevin O'Connell has directed the team's offense.
A quick reminder: In 2023, when Cousins went down with a torn Achilles in Week 8, Jefferson returned from a hamstring injury and delivered WR3 numbers -- scoring 18.2 points per game -- playing with Dobbs, Hall, and Mullens over that span.
Investors in early best-ball drafts aren't shying away; Jefferson is currently going as WR2 with the fifth pick overall. Meanwhile, Addison, with a Footballguys Projection of WR33, is being drafted slightly ahead of that. You'll find him as WR29 on Underdog, going in Round 5 just after incoming rookie Tetairoa McMillan, Chicago's Rome Odunze, and Kansas City's Rashee Rice.
Addison finished last season as WR21 . . .
Perception: Fields Torpedoes Wilson's Value
The New York Jets are putting together an Ohio State reunion. On Monday, the Jets signed Justin Fields to a two-year deal that should serve as a good first step in the team's rebuild after moving on from Aaron Rodgers.
As SI.com's Tyler Lauletta reminded readers, the move reunites Fields with wide receiver Garrett Wilson, with whom he played college ball at Ohio State. Chris Olave, a third member of that fabled Buckeyes offense, was thrilled to see his two former teammates back on the same squad.
— Chris Olave (@chrisolave_) March 10, 2025
Wilson expressed similar sentiments in the past.
"If that would happen, that would be awesome," Wilson said back in 2022 when asked about potentially teaming up with Fields at the next level. "I haven't really thought about where I'd be playing. Anywhere would be a blessing. Definitely to link back up with Justin at the NFL level would be a dream come true, for sure."
They now get their chance at said dream in a cool full-circle moment for the two young players.
In 2020, a pandemic-shortened season, Wilson caught 43 passes for 723 yards and six touchdowns in eight games with Fields as the Buckeyes' starter. Over two seasons playing together in Columbus, the duo combined for 11 touchdowns.
That's good, but not great. And the knock on Fields is his fantasy value comes from his rushing ability. He's not a high-end passer.
The Reality
In his first season with the Bears, D.J. Moore pulled in 76 passes for 1,153 yards and s scored 9 touchdowns in 13 games Fields in 2023.
Old enough to remember all the way back in 2023 when Justin Fields helped D.J. Moore go 96-1364-8 and work as a top-10 fantasy receiver.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 10, 2025
While Tyson Bagent chipped in on that career-best season for Moore, Fields was the driving force behind Moore finishing the season as WR6.
In New York, it will be up to first-time offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand to devise a system that capitalizes on Fields' strengths. It will be a departure for Engstrand, who came from the Detroit Lions with Jared Goff, a pure pocket passer with limited mobility. Look for more run-pass options, zone reads, and one-read pass plays.
It's reasonable to assume that Garrett, currently going as WR16 with a third-round price tag, will be the first read more often than not. . .
Perception: Richardson Catches A Break
Daniel Jones signed a one-year deal with the Indianapolis Colts worth up to $17.7 million with $13.5 million guaranteed. According to FOXSports' Ben Arthur, the terms of Jones' deal feel favorable for the Colts. The financial commitment to Jones is reasonable for a reclamation project that could end up starting in 2025 but not too steep to take away from Anthony Richardson's development, which Indy hasn't given up on.
Breer reports the Colts believe benching Richardson last year, with Joe Flacco taking his job, lit a fire under the 2023 No. 4 pick. And so Indy hopes bringing in Jones will push Richardson to turn the corner.
Tom Pelissero of NFL Media reports Richardson's agent, Deiric Jackson, said that Richardson is healthy and has no plans to seek a trade. "AR will be ready to roll," Jackson said.
The incumbent starter is putting in plenty of effort this offseason.
Josh Allen will join Anthony Richardson & his QB trainers to workout together in Jacksonville this offseason.
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) February 27, 2025
A part of a motivated Richardson’s prep ahead of important Year 3. Both Richardson & Colts know they have to do better for each other. More here: https://t.co/8nGXgFWbaT
Will that be enough to give Richardson the edge most observers believe he has?
The Reality
First of all, Richardson, who turns just 23 in May, needs the work.
He completed only 47.7 percent of his passes for 1,814 yards with eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 11 games last season. As Footballguy Jeff Blaylock noted, Richardson, drafted with the No. 4 pick in 2023, has completed 50.6 percent of his career passes, ranking 54th of 54 quarterbacks who attempted at least 200 passes over the past two seasons. He has 11 career passing touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
Blaylock went on to point out that Jones, the sixth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, is a significantly more accurate passer. He has completed 64.1 percent of his pass attempts over six seasons. In his career, Jones has thrown 70 touchdowns and 47 interceptions; however, his performance over the last two seasons (10 touchdowns, 13 interceptions) resembles that of Richardson more closely.
According to Stathead's metrics, 26.3 percent of Richardson's throws were "poor," while 12.9 percent of Jones' passes fell into that category.
The Colts are hoping the competition will push Richardson to improve and play better in his critical third season.
But other than a handful of spike QB1 fantasy performances, there's not a ton of evidence suggesting Richardson is ready to make good on his lofty NFL Draft status. Jones, on the other hand, has a single top-10 fantasy finish (QB9 in 2022) since he joined the league. But his highest finish other than that? He's been QB24 twice during his six-year career.
As ESPN.com's Stephen Holder said, "The situation in Indianapolis is simple: Two quarterbacks, one job, and lots of huge implications."
We'll see who wins the job in a few months. Until then, you're taking your chances drafting either . . .
Perception: Dowdle Diminishes Hubbard's Value
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The Panthers are serious about running the ball, so they added to the backfield Wednesday night by agreeing to terms with running back Rico Dowdle on a one-year deal, adding him to become part of what could be an extremely productive backfield.
Dowdle, 26, had a breakout year with the Cowboys last season, rushing for 1,079 yards and two touchdowns and catching 39 passes for 249 yards and another three scores.
That 1,328 yards from scrimmage was 20th in the league.
The Panthers have a starting running back in Chuba Hubbard (who was 15th in yards from scrimmage with 1,366 yards), and they extended Hubbard last season to be the guy for the long term.
But, as Panthers.com's Darin Gantt noted, the Panthers always want to have two backs at the ready. It's why they drafted Jonathon Brooks in the second round last year. Brooks is expected to miss most of the season after tearing his ACL again last year. The Panthers released Miles Sanders on Tuesday. On Thursday, he joined former Bronco Javonte Williams in a rebuilt Cowboys' backfield.
Still, the addition of Dowdle casts a pall on Hubbard's perceived value.
The Reality
Hubbard proved to be a perfect fit for Dave Canales' offense. As I noted in a previous Fantasy Notebook, Charlotte Observer reporter Mike Kaye told me during the season that coaches loved Hubbard's "violent" running style. As a result, Hubbard set career-highs in rushing attempts (250), rushing yards (1,195), rushing touchdowns (10), and receptions (43) while recording 171 receiving yards and an additional touchdown in his 15 starts.
He finished as RB13 h with an average of 16.5 fantasy points per game.
Meanwhile, as Footballguy Josh Fahlsing suggested, Dowdle showed in Dallas that he could put up fantasy points, whether spelling the starter or carrying the full load. He finished 2024 on a tear, going over 100 yards on the ground in 4 of his last 6 games. He was also efficient in the passing game, with five games of five or more catches.
Dowdle finished the year as RB23. But from Weeks 13 through 18, he was RB12.
Still, Sanders, a former Pro Bowler, was limited to just 353 yards from scrimmage and three scores on 79 touches in 11 games played behind Hubbard last season for Carolina.
So don't panic, Hubbard investors. His RB19 projection still feels right to me, and I suspect his early RB17 ADP on Underdog will fall based on Dowdle's signing. I'll be looking to reap the value when it does . . .
Perception: The Patriots Haven't Helped Maye Much
Heading into the offseason with the most cap room of any team in the league, and with the offensive line and receiving corps seen as major needs as they build around quarterback Drake Maye, Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel met with the media on Thursday to discuss their early offseason moves and at least one they didn't make.
Reports indicated that the Patriots tried to sign wide receiver Chris Godwin, who said he was "really close" to joining another team before he decided to return to the Buccaneers. During Thursday's press conference, Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel was asked about Godwin and the team's plan to address the wide receiver position in the future.
Vrabel declined to comment on any pursuit of Godwin while saying that the Patriots will still be looking for additions at the position beyond Mack Hollins, who got a two-year deal worth up to $10.4 million with incentives.
The Reality
The Patriots haven't helped Maye much.
Yes, they added Hollins and veteran offensive tackle Morgan Moses. But missing out on players like Godwin and DK Metcalf is a disappointment.
But Vrabel isn't worried.
"We'll continue to look at the wide receiver position as it relates to free agency, explore every option with other teams, and potentially then we'll get to the point where we're looking at the draft," the coach said. "There's just a lot of time, and I know that everybody is like, it's over in free agency. It's never over."
Vrabel had a similar answer to a question regarding center David Andrews's release and the team's offensive line plans, and SI.com's Connor Orr shares that view.
"The immediate reaction to the first wave of free agency was that the team did not supply Maye with a top-tier target," Orr wrote. "But I suspect the Patriots hired Vrabel to create a kind of superstar-agnostic roster full of greasy tough guys and durable vets, not to make sure the team broke the bank for Godwin. "
If the argument is prioritizing defense in free agency allows the team to focus on bolstering Maye's supporting cast through the draft, where it has the No. 4 overall pick, then sure. But if the idea is building on Maye's promising fantasy season as a rookie last year, we're off to a rocky start . . .
Perception: Wilson Is Nothing More Than A Punchline
We all know the story. We've certainly seen the memes.
Zach Wilson career with the Jets will be remembered by him having an affair with his mom's friend. pic.twitter.com/6Kq6YrhDE4
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) December 23, 2022
The Reality
Wilson spent last year quietly refining his game as Denver's third-teamer. Based on how the Broncos staff viewed him, Breer advised not to rule out a Wilson renaissance now that he's in Miami.
With Bo Nix entrenched in Denver, Wilson was bound to seek a better shot at playing time. As Breer noted, there's no delicate way to say it -- Tua Tagovailoa's injury history creates an opportunity.
Wilson also fits Mike McDaniel's offense, which is why the Jets, led by McDaniel's former 49ers colleagues Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur, took him No. 2 overall. He has the mobility and athleticism to execute Miami's scheme, much like Tua.
It takes reps, effort, and rhythm to master. But that's what the Dolphins need. When Tua is unavailable, the team struggles.
Ideally, Tua plays all 17 games, as he did in 2023. But he's completed just one full season in five years.
For a $6 million investment with $4 million in incentives (tied to playing time, wins, and playoffs), Miami may finally have the insurance policy it needs.
As ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio wrote, "It's easy to doubt him. It was easy to doubt Geno Smith and Sam Darnold. But the Jets didn't reach for Wilson at No. 2 -- he was the consensus second pick behind Trevor Lawrence, just a year after Tua was drafted."
Will it work better than Miami's recent backup plans? It can't get much worse . . .
Perception: The Goal In Vegas Is Competence
This past weekend, the Las Vegas Raiders upgraded dramatically at quarterback. Trading a third-round draft pick to the Seahawks, head coach Pete Carroll reunites with Geno Smith, who helped Seattle to the eighth-most passing yards and 14th-ranked total offense last season compared to the Raiders' 13th and 29th-ranked groups.
Tight end Brock Bowers and his fantasy managers also win here.
But don't discount minority owner Tom Brady's relief to attain competence at the game's most impactful position. He's reportedly putting in a lot of behind-the-scenes effort toward that end.
The Reality
The Smith trade is the latest part of what is shaping up to be a transformative offseason, with the emphasis on competent leadership -- on the sidelines and in the huddle at the most critical position on the field -- sure to make a difference.
Now, if only they'd use their first-round pick, the sixth overall, in April's NFL Draft, to land running back Ashton Jeanty to the mix . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of stories. I like to use this spot to encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good: Money Matters
As I mentioned at the top, the 2025 NFL free-agent signing period started quickly, with money exchanging hands at a remarkable rate.
Money matters: entering today and since Monday, NFL teams now have signed players to $4.88 billion in player compensation, including $2.19B guaranteed at signing.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 14, 2025
The $4.88B includes “likely to be earned” comp, not the max value for incentives that are not deemed likely. pic.twitter.com/ci8pS7wg2D
Through Friday afternoon, the Patriots were the biggest spenders of free agency in 2025, dishing out over $284 million in total contract value, per OverTheCap. They're followed closely by the Vikings, at just over $253 million. The Eagles have been the most frugal team, spending just $5.3 million.
Of course, it's easy to argue the defending Super Bowl Champions are still in a good spot . . .
The Bad: Wardrobe Malfuntion?
According to ESPN.com's Josh Weinfuss, Fanatics' lawsuit against Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.. over a disputed term sheet was settled on Thursday, per court documents. The settlement ends a 10-month legal saga that indirectly prevented Harrison's jersey from being officially sold.
With the agreement reached, Harrison's No. 18 Cardinals jersey is expected to go on sale "pretty soon," per Weinfuss.
Harrison Jr., the fourth overall pick in last year's NFL Draft, was the only first-rounder without an available jersey.
Was missing out on Harrison's jersey really that bad?
I don't know.
Probably not as bad as investing an early second-round pick in the rookie last season only to wind up with the WR30 season Harrison delivered. Safe to say, few fantasy investors feel like they missed out on that jersey . . .
The Ugly: Attrition Is A Thing
According to Pro Football Focus analyst Mason Cameron, with a lucrative extension for quarterback Brock Purdy on the horizon, the 49ers essentially had to sit out free agency, watching from the sidelines. Their biggest signings have been wide receiver Demarcus Robinson, who got a two-year, $9.5 million contract, and tight end Luke Farrell, who agreed to a three-year deal worth up to $20.25 million.
But it goes beyond that:
49ers departures this offseason:
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 11, 2025
Traded:
?WR Deebo Samuel Sr.
Cut:
?FB Kyle Juszczyk
?DE Leonard Floyd
?DT Javon Hargrave
?DT Maliek Collins
Left in FA:
?LB Dre Greenlaw
?CB Charvarius Ward
?S Talanoa Hufanga
?G Aaron Banks
?OT Jaylon Moore
?RB Elijah Mitchell
?QB… https://t.co/AgLib1bTlK
Last season was nearly an all-in year -- one final shot to build an elite roster around a quarterback on a bargain deal. They led the league with $334 million in cash spending, extended Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Williams -- then went 6-11.
In past seasons, quarterback injuries were an easy scapegoat in San Francisco. But Purdy was healthy for 15 games, and they still weren't competitive. As Cameron noted, convincing the locker room that Purdy's contract justifies sacrificing depth and key needs could be a tough sell.
When it comes to recruiting talent, it could get downright ugly.
From a fantasy perspective, Purdy's effectiveness is a question mark with Aiyuk coming off an ACL tear, McCaffrey missing 13 games last season, and a supporting cast of George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, and Robinson.
Purdy, QB13 in 2024 with an 18.2 PPG average, is projected as QB9 at 19.08 PPG. His Underdog ADP is QB12, costing an eighth-round pick . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. While many consider this "the NFL offseason," it's been a blistering week here at Footballguys, as we continue to work hard to help you gain an edge on your leaguemates.
In addition to the real-time Player Movement Tracker and Fantasy Outlooks landing page, we also released Version 2 of our Footballguys 2025 Rookie Draft Guide. Download it free now. Our 2025 Player Projections and Preseason Draft Rankings are up and running, too.
Remember: It's never too early to start, so head back next week for another edition of the Fantasy Notebook.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can catch Harris' "On The Hotseat" every Tuesday on the Footballguys Audible channel and listen to him during the season on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.
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