Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the offseason.

Let's dive in . . .

Where Were We?

The Super Bowl is in the books, and I have a few notes below -- in the Good, The Bad, And The Ugly section. 

For now, congratulations, Eagles fans. Also, sorry Chiefs fans. 

But we have business to attend to here. Fantasy business. That means continuing our hunt for values. As we've done the last three weeks, I'll examine a player who fell short of expectations in 2024 and one who exceeded them and assess their potential values this year.

In case you missed it, finding value in drafts is your path to fantasy success.

It's also an offseason-long process. So this is just the starting point. We're setting baselines. Then we'll revisit these players over the coming months to see how things are progressing as the season draws nearer . . .

Should We Give Hall A Pass This Year?

As fantasy investors who burned an early first-round pick to secure his services last summer will tell you, Breece Hall was a massive disappointment in 2024. But, as SI.com's Matthew Schmidt pointed out, pretty much everything about New York was underwhelming last season.

So it's fair to wonder if Hall or Hall's circumstances were the primary driver of his finish. 

Hall had been full throttle since he was drafted out of Iowa State in the second round in 2022. As the team's official website reminded us, he was on pace in '22 to be in the discussion for Offensive Rookie of the Year before his season was cut short by an ACL injury in Week 7. He responded with 1,585 scrimmage yards, the second-most among running backs in the 2023 season.

That included 994 rushing yards at a 4.5-yard per carry clip. Hall also hauled in 76 receptions on 90 targets that season.

He finished the 2023 season as RB2 with 288 fantasy points. 

This past season, he finished with 1,359 scrimmage yards (14th among running backs) and eight touchdowns. He ran for 876 yards, 54.8 yards per game, in 2024. His receptions fell to 57 on 74 targets. 

His RB16 finish fell far short of his RB3 Average Draft Position (ADP) last summer when he was selected with the sixth pick overall . . .

What's The Upside?

Hall, who will turn 24 in May, has the makeup to be one of the league's top three-down backs. Since his arrival, he's the only running back in the league to have at least 100 receiving yards in multiple games. His five games with at least 150 scrimmage yards are the fifth most for a running back, and his four games with at least 50 rushing and 50 receiving yards are tied for the third most in the league.

His receiving work bolstered Hall's fantasy stock. His 90 targets in 2023 led all running backs . . .

What In Hades Happened?

Last season, Hall was hampered by a knee injury that had him listed on the injury report for most of the final six games. He missed the Week 14 matchup at Miami, and rookies Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis were also limiting factors at times. 

And the team's offensive line wasn't great.

According to Footballguy Matt Bitonti's final 2024 Offensive Line Rankings, the Jets ranked 23rd as a run-blocking unit.

But the problems ran deeper than that . . .

Tale Of The Tape

According to Jets X-Factor's Rivka Boord, the assumption that New York's poor run-blocking kept Hall's production down is far from the truth. While Boord acknowledges that the Jets' run-blocking was horrible to start the season, it rebounded in Week 6. 

However, you wouldn't know it based on Hall's final statistics.

From Weeks 1-5, Hall averaged just 3.1 expected yards per carry, which would have been the second-lowest among all qualified running backs over a full season in the NFL Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). However, he managed to be worse than his blocking, posting 3.0 yards per carry.

According to Boord, "Hall's miserable performance over the first five weeks and average numbers from there on out produced a mediocre season."

Utterly Unexplosive

Hall had a very high breakaway yards rate -- north of 40 percent -- in his first two seasons. He led the league in that area in 2023. Ultimately, his big runs allowed him to have strong final totals despite disastrous run-blocking. Hall would take nothing and turn it into major gains on the regular.

In 2024, Hall's breakaway yardage diminished significantly -- down to 26.3 percent. 

In and of itself, that would not mean he had a bad season. However, in the context of his total season, it further emphasizes that he lacked explosiveness. 

Adding to all that, Next Gen Stats reveals the top speed Hall reached all season in 2024 was 20.27 mph, while his top speed in 2023 was 21.5 mph. Boord argues the only way to explain a drop-off that steep for a 23-year-old running back in his second year off an ACL tear (as compared to his first) is injury.

Whatever the case, Hall ranked ninth among backs in runs of 10-plus yards. He ranked 12th in 15-plus yards runs. But when shrinking the pie to runs of 20-plus yards, Hall's ranking fell to 25th.

In other words, Hall did gain some chunks, but they just weren't as big as he had in the past . . .

Change Is Coming

Even assuming Hall is back to full speed this season, fantasy managers will have to deal with various levels of uncertainty in New York.

Besides a new head coach, Aaron Glenn, and offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, there will be significant changes in New York this year -- including at quarterback after the Jets announced on Thursday they'll be moving on from Aaron Rodgers.

Boord contends there are also serious questions about the Jets' running back room. 

While Allen and Davis showed flashes as rookies, neither were that impressive statistically, particularly when breaking tackles. If Hall doesn't return to form, the Jets' room looks dangerously thin -- as does their entire offense . . . 

Could Change Come For Hall, Too?

If Hall does rebound in 2025, it'll be the last year of his rookie deal. Then he hits the running back aging curve and questions whether it's worthwhile to extend him, as well as the reality that Hall's cheap years (one of the primary purposes of drafting a player) ended up marred by injury.

So, even though receiver Garrett Wilson is the buzzy trade candidate these days, ESPN.com's Ben Solak predicts the Jets are likelier to trade Hall. 

The list of potential suitors would include the Chargers and Cowboys . . .

Setting Expectations

How does a player equipped with the tools to be one of the best at his position rebound?

Staying on the field will be Hall's first objective. He understands what it takes.

"Every running back can run the ball; every good running back that plays three downs can catch," Hall said. "My biggest challenge from all my coaches was just pass protection. Then, one of the things I try to improve all the time is consistency. I feel like as a running back, with the way we get our bodies beat up and stuff, some days you don't have like you do on other days when you're feeling better. 

"So for me, just trying to stay the same guy every day and just keep improving and finding ways to take care of my body."

Making the most of his role will be vital. One of our objectives will be understanding that role in an environment that will look very different from Hall's past seasons.

FantasyPros' Pat Fitzmaurice, setting Hall's initial value at RB11 with a late second-round price tag, is willing to blame Hall's 2024 issues on the Jets and their train wreck of a season. 

"Unfortunately," Fitzmaurice added, "the Jets might not be any less of a train wreck in 2025."

That's true. 

But we've seen the upside. We've seen a healthy Hall being explosive while playing an integral role in the passing game. We've seen him overcome poor blocking and less-than-stellar quarterback play.

So there's reason to believe we'll get value here. 

Footballguy Dave Kluge's outlook, as he laid out in (Way Too Early) 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings, is slightly more optimistic than Fitzmaurice.

Kluge has Hall as his RB8 in the middle of the second round. 

"He's checked the boxes as an elite talent," Kluge wrote. "He'll be just 24 next year. Assuming he falls into this range in 2025 drafts, he could be one of next year's best draft-day values."

For the record, Kluge has him ahead of Tampa Bay's Bucky Irving, rookie Ashton Jeanty, the Rams' Kyren Williams, Baltimore's Derrick Henry, and Houston's Joe Mixon.

The Flip Side

For every player who falls short, there are players who exceed expectations or outperform their ADP. Let's look at a great example . . .

Chasing Another RB1 Season

One player Kluge has ahead of Hall is Bengals running back Chase Brown.

It's understandable. 

At the beginning of the 2024 season, Brown split reps with Zack Moss, a free-agent addition made to help replace Mixon. However, Brown bore the brunt of the workload once Moss went on injured reserve on Nov. 5 with a neck injury. 

In Week 9, the first week without Moss, Brown got 100 percent of the running back touches for the Bengals, carrying the ball 27 times for 120 yards with five receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown.

It was a sign of things to come.

Until he missed the last game of the season, Brown was on the field at least 80 percent of the time and up to 98.5 percent (Week 15 against Cleveland).

The playing time translated well, as Brown finished 10th in points among running backs backs in the fantasy season. From Weeks 4 through 17 (he didn't play Week 18), Brown emerged as a league-winning asset as he posted RB6 numbers.

That's great.

It's downright extraordinary when you realize that heading into the season, Brown was drafted as RB37 with the 105th pick overall . . .

Will The Bengals Add To Their Backfield?

As SBNation's Jason Garrison recently noted, the Bengals will have a chance to re-sign and extend their own, and add a group of new players, both veterans and rookies. 

One idea Garrison has seen floated around is pairing Brown's lightning with another running back's thunder -- someone like Ashton Jeanty with the No. 17 overall pick or a bruiser like Najee Harris in free agency.

Garrison, channeling his inner fantasy managers (whether he meant to or not), wrote: "Both of those ideas are absolutely insane and would lead to a massive waste of draft capital and money."

Why would the Bengals need to pair Brown with anyone?

He's athletic and fast (he posted the second-highest speed in the league -- 22.05 mph -- in 2023. Every time he touches the ball, Brown is a broken tackle away from an explosive play. 

Even better, Brown is still on his rookie deal, and they already have Moss under contract . . .

Can Brown Keep Delivering?

Expecting the Bengals to dial back on Brown's workload now that he's demonstrated his ability to handle it seems like a reach.

As Kluge explained, "There are some concerns about his size and draft capital . . . But if Brown goes into the 2025 season with little competition for touches again, he'll deserve to be drafted as an RB1."

Kluge has Brown as RB5 -- just ahead of San Francisco's Christian McCaffrey and the Packers' Josh Jacobs -- going early in Round 2.

That's not far off SI.com's Michael Fabiano, who wrote: "I have him ranked in the top 10 at the running back position and projected him as a second-round pick in 2025 drafts."

Looking for some dissent here? Our own Jason Wood, in the initial Footballguys 2025 Projections (yes, those projections are available now), has Brown at RB14. 

I don't like to overpay, but the Bengals had the fifth-highest-scoring offense throughout the 2024 season. Even if they lose Tee Higgins to free agency, expecting a significant slowdown would be overthinking it. I feel the same about Brown's workload -- at least until and unless we get information to the contrary.

And rest assured, I'll be watching for that . . . 

This And That

49ers Moving On From Deebo

Deebo Samuel Sr., a mainstay of the 49ers offense since 2019, has likely played his last down in San Francisco. Samuel received permission from the team to seek a trade this offseason.

The veteran wideout requested the trade during his exit meetings with the team after the season. "It was a hard conversation to have with [head coach] Kyle [Shanahan] because of our relationship," Samuel said on Sunday. "But I have to do what's best. I'm more than thankful for the Niners giving me the opportunity of a lifetime, but now I think it's best that we find another team."

Samuel and the 49ers are coming off a disappointing 2024 campaign. The team finished 6-11, and Samuel had a career-low 51 catches (not including the injury-riddled 2020 season) with just 670 yards and three touchdowns. He also had a career-low 81 targets (not including 2020).

There are plenty of receiver-needy teams, so we'll watch to see what kind of interest Samuel draws. The Bills, Patriots, Rams, and Chargers are possible destinations.

Meanwhile, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport suggested the 49ers planned for Samuels' eventual departure by selecting Ricky Pearsall in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft and extending Brandon Aiyuk last August. But as ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner notes, much depends on Aiyuk's health as he recovers from a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee. 

Aiyuk suffered that injury in October. It's conceivable he could be ready for the start of the season, but that's uncertain. 

However it plays out, fantasy investors shouldn't overlook Pearsall. 

As SI.com's Grant Cohn recently noted, Pearsall should be the starting Z-receiver opposite Jennings. The second-year man-to-be is faster than Samuel and Jennings and is a better route runner than them as well.

Cohn reminded readers that Pearsall missed most of the offseason training program with hamstring and shoulder injuries. Then he got shot in the chest days before the season opener and missed the first six games. When he finally made his NFL debut, he was behind, as you would expect. He hadn't mastered Shanahan's complex offensive system and often didn't seem to be in the quarterback's progression. 

From Week 11 to Week 15, Pearsall caught two passes. Then, the 49ers were eliminated from the playoffs, and Shanahan finally gave Pearsall opportunities to catch passes. And in the final two games, he caught 14 of 18 targets for 210 yards and two touchdowns.

I often advocate for investing in the cheapest piece of ambiguous situations. I'm advocating for it here . . . 

Extending Henry

Henry will talk with the Ravens about a contract extension this offseason, according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo.

Henry is coming off a phenomenal first season in Baltimore, having compiled 1,921 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on a career-high 5.9 yards per carry across 17 regular-season games. He added 193 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 19 catches. He became the first player in NFL history with multiple seasons of 1,900-plus rush yards. 

After Baltimore was eliminated from the postseason, GM Eric DeCosta and head coach John Harbaugh suggested an extension was possible. 

With or without an extension, Henry will be in the RB1 conversation when fantasy draft season rolls around . . .

Who's No. 1?

Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 6.4 yards per touch in 2024, the most yards by any player with at least 300 touches in a season since Marshall Faulk in 2000.

As Footballguy Sigmund Bloom suggested, Gibbs has a lot of Faulk to his game. "He moves quickly and smoothly," Bloom wrote, "and Gibbs can gash a team with explosiveness as a runner or receiver.

He can work in tight spaces and wastes little motion. He's clearly a fantasy favorite and one of the players who makes watching football fun.

Gibbs is also RB1 on the initial Footballguys 2025 Draft Rankings -- and the No. 1 pick overall ahead of Ja'Marr Chase . . . 

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. I like to use this spot to encapsulate that broad expanse here. This week, I'll focus on some Super Bowl LIX-related outcomes.

The Good

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts was named the Most Valuable Player of Super Bowl LIX. 

He completed 17 of his 22 passes for 221 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception and rushed 11 times for 72 yards and a touchdown. Hurts became the first player in NFL history to have at least five passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns in a single postseason. He also became the first quarterback in a Super Bowl to lead both teams in rushing yards since Steve Young in Super Bowl XXIX. 

In addition, he broke his record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in a Super Bowl, surpassing the 70 yards he had in Super Bowl LVII. 

Hurts is now the only quarterback with multiple 50-yard rushing games in the Super Bowl. 

While there's an argument to be made that Philadelphia's defense was the real key to victory, Hurts' performance -- on a night Saquon Barkley was held to just 57 rushing yards on 25 carries -- put the Eagles well over the top.

Meanwhile, the slow night didn't keep Barkley from setting the NFL season rushing record, postseason included, as the former Giant surpassed the mark of 2,476 yards set by Terrell Davis.

Heading into the matchup, Barkley, named the AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year last Thursday, needed only 30 yards to move past Davis' 1998 mark. 

Barkley's 2,447 yards were second all-time in a single season heading into the game, surpassing Davis' 1997 showing of 2,331 yards in last month's NFC Championship Game win over the Commanders. Barkley became the first player in NFL history to record over 2,500 rushing yards in a season, including the playoffs. 

While Gibbs opens the offseason as our fantasy 1.01, Barkley is absolutely in the conversation . . . 

The Bad

As Profootballtalk.com's Michael David Smith framed it, "In the annals of NFL history, few players have had a garbage-time performance like Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy in the second half of Super Bowl LIX."

Worthy's second-half stat line was remarkable: Seven catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns. 

Unfortunately, the score was 24-0 at halftime, and Worthy's performance was too little, too late for the Chiefs.

Even if Worthy's performance doesn't qualify as bad here, it's not all good.

If nothing else, Worthy's second-half performance raises the question of why the Chiefs didn't get more out of the rookie all season.

It's fair to ask.

From Week 1 through the AFC Championship Game, Worthy never had 100 receiving yards or two receiving touchdowns. Then he went well over 100 yards and had two receiving touchdowns just in the second half of the Super Bowl.

Smith suggested, "When the Chiefs look at the Super Bowl and ask themselves what they need to address in the offseason, the first priority will be rebuilding their offensive line. But No. 2 should be figuring out how to make better use of Worthy's immense talent. 

"Before garbage time arrives. . ."

The Ugly

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce isn't making any decisions on his potential retirement -- yet. 

Kelce, 35, opened up about his NFL future during a recent episode of his "New Heights" podcast.

"I know everybody wants to know whether I am playing next year, and right now, I am just kicking everything down the road. I am kicking every can I can down the road," Kelce said.

Kelce was still productive this season, but his yards (823) and touchdowns (3) in the regular season this year were the lowest he has had in a full season. 

In the Super Bowl, Kelce had just four catches for 39 yards, all of which came with the Chiefs trailing by multiple touchdowns. 

He was invisible in the first half.

“0 catches, 0 yards, and 2 drops in the first half doesn’t put fuel in the jet, TRAVIS.” pic.twitter.com/hxcRyZ2OJq

— Nick Adams (@NickAdamsinUSA) February 10, 2025

The 2024 season wasn't great, but Kelce was still a solid fantasy producer at his position. He finished as TE5 on the season and TE7 on our initial 2025 Draft Rankings.

But mostly, it would be ugly to see him go out on a sour note . . . 

The Final Word

That's it for this week. Even heading into what most people consider "the NFL offseason," we're still grinding away here at Footballguys, helping you gain an edge on your leaguemates. Check back often to take advantage of our ongoing content.

That includes the Footballguys 2025 Rookie Draft Guide, our 2025 Player Projections, and 2025 Draft Rankings.

It's never too early to start, so head back next week for another Fantasy Notebook.

Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can find Harris on the Footballguys Audible channel and listen to him during the season on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.

Follow @footballdiehard