The firehose of free agency news can be overwhelming. Let's boil all of this action down to a list of who won and lost in fantasy football circles when we consider everything that went down at the open of free agency.
Fantasy Football Free Agency Winners
Justin Fields (QB-NYJ), Garrett Wilson (WR-NYJ)
Fields gets a starting job despite being unable to beat out Russell Wilson last year. The same Russell Wilson that is getting a, to put it lightly, lukewarm reception in free agency. New Jets offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand got to learn from Ben Johnson in Detroit and should build around Fields' strengths as a runner and leverage Wilson's ability to consistently get open as the first option on passing downs. DJ Moore had his best season with Fields. Wilson and Fields played together for two seasons at Ohio State. Both will probably still be underrated after their ADP absorbs the bounce created by their joyous reunion.
Daniel Jones (QB-IND)
Jones will get a chance to pilot a better offense than the ones he ran with the Giants if he can beat out Anthony Richardson. Experience alone should give Jones an edge, but that edge could be moot when you consider that the Colts clearly aren't sold on Richardson. Jones had other options and probably chose this one because he thought it would give him the best chance to start and build more value for the 2026 free agency cycle. Jones was going undrafted in best-ball leagues, but that should change now.
Mike Gesicki (TE-CIN), Chase Brown (RB-CIN)
It appears the Bengals aren't going to be able to keep Trey Hendrickson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, with Hendrickson seeking a trade. Otherwise, they wouldn't have committed to Gesicki on a three-year, $25.5 million deal before free agency opened to allow maximum flexibility to pull off the difficult maneuver. That's good for Gesicki's fantasy value and should move him up from the last 2-3 rounds of best-ball drafts. The Bengals also brought back Samaje Perine for a bargain price of $3.8 million over two years. While that could cut into Brown's passing down usage, it shows that the team very much believes in Brown as a true lead back and might be the most consequential move they make at running back this offseason. Brown should still be one of the most heavily used backs in the league and could be a bargain if he stays in the third round of drafts.
Jaylen Warren (RB-PIT), Najee Harris (RB-LAC)
The Steelers let Harris walk to sign a one-year, $5.25 million deal with the Chargers, which is about exactly what Warren will get on a second-round RFA tender. Both should be projected to lead their backfields in touches, although it wouldn't be surprising if both are joined by a rookie back who is a bigger threat to their workload than Kimani Vidal, Hassan Haskins, or Cordarrelle Patterson. Warren's bump is smaller, as he was going earlier in best ball drafts. The fantasy football hive minds didn't expect Harris to land in such a plum spot. Both of these teams are in a position to at least consider running back in the first round, so either one could end up lower than before the positive developments at the opening of free agency.
Javonte Williams (RB-DAL)
Williams is certain to be joined by a rookie back, maybe even one drafted at #12. Still, it sounds like Rico Dowdle priced himself out of the Cowboys backfield, and we all thought Dallas would draft a back last year, too. So Williams ADP will move up from the 180s on speculative and maybe short-lived value.
Jayden Daniels (QB-WAS)
Laremy Tunsil is turning 31 before the season and might not be at his peak anymore, but the Titans just gave Dan Moore $82 million for four years because he can play a serviceable left tackle. The Commanders are paying Tunsil just about the same per year as Moore for the next two years, and they didn't have to give up a first-round pick to get him. If Tunsil plays well enough to earn another contract with Washington in 2027, this trade will be a massive win. GM Adam Peters is doing exactly what you should do when you are in a Super Bowl window and have a quarterback on a rookie contract.
Caleb Williams (QB-CHI), D'Andre Swift (RB-CHI)
The Ben Johnson era for the Bears opened with decisive action. Trades for Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson upgraded both guard positions, and Johnson and Jackson know each other from their time together in Detroit. Then, at the opening of free agency, the Bears signed Drew Dalman away from the Falcons to upgrade at center. Offensive line moves don't make headlines in fantasy football circles, but this trio should. The Bears understand what needs to be fixed and how to immediately fix it. Williams has a great chance for a bounce-back season. Swift is set up for success, although the Bears could still draft or sign another running back. Swift wasn't exactly a star when he was with Ben Johnson at Detroit and the team didn't seek to keep him, but that doesn't mean that his starting spot will be usurped by a newcomer. For now, Swift's value is up from the modest pre-free agency price of a 10th-round pick.
Aaron Jones (RB-MIN), Chris Godwin (WR-TB)
These free-agency retentions were very predictable, but they should cause an uptick in value nonetheless. Jones was brought back on a two-year deal that should keep him in a starting role - although the Vikings will be in the market to upgrade the backup spot via free agency or the draft. If Jones didn't return to Minnesota, he would have likely been in a lesser role elsewhere. Lots of sources signaled that Godwin would return to the Bucs, and they were correct. He's in a plum role, assuming the offense won't change too much from the Liam Coen model after Coen took the head coach job in Jacksonville. It's hard to imagine Godwin carrying as much value in another offense.
Davante Adams (WR-LAR)
Adams goes from a Nathaniel Hackett offense to a Sean McVay offense, which is like going from Baltic Avenue to Park Place. While his fantasy value was enhanced by being reunited with Aaron Rodgers, it should still be better than the implied production that comes with his pre-free agency ADP of 50. Adams has more left in the tank than Cooper Kupp did last year, and Kupp's 2024 ADP was in the 20s/30s. Adams should be one of the biggest ADP movers if fantasy football players rationally react to free agency.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR-SEA)
After Tyler Lockett was released and DK Metcalf was traded, Smith-Njigba is basically the only game in town for the Seahawks' passing attack. He has a chance to lead the league in targets and catches. There's an argument for taking him in the late first of drafts, but he was going in the late 20s before free agency. Going from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold isn't an upgrade, but it shouldn't be a significant downgrade, either.
Jordan Mason (RB-SF)
Mason getting a second-round tender from the 49ers should tell you a lot about how he is valued, considering that he's getting paid the same as Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris, who are projected to lead their backfields in touches. Mason isn't going to lead the 49ers backfield in touches with Christian McCaffrey there - unless McCaffrey can't stay healthy again. The 49ers could be using the tender to create a trade market for Mason, according to at least one beat writer. Whether he plays for the 49ers or another team in 2025, Mason going after Isaac Guerendo in early Underdog drafts seems ill-advised in hindsight.
Fantasy Football Free Agency Losers
C.J. Stroud (QB-HOU)
The Texans got some second-day picks for their trouble, but trading away your best lineman when the line was your Achilles heel and got multiple coaches fired is an odd approach to the offseason. Laremy Tunsil apparently did not fit in the Texans' culture, but culture isn't going to give Stroud enough time to throw downfield. The Texans are rebuilding their offensive line, which means this could be a one step backward, two steps forward approach to improvement. Stroud's ADP of QB17 in the 120s overall was down steeply from last year, and it's probably not done dropping yet.
Anthony Richardson (QB-IND)
Fourteen million dollars isn't "starter" money for a backup quarterback; it's "we don't have a starter" money. The team has already said there will be a competition at quarterback, and it's fair to wonder if that competition will be fair. Maybe Richardson hasn't completely earned the support of the organization, but it's clear that he doesn't have it. Jones certainly could win this job in camp and the preseason, and Richardson will have to look over his shoulder all season if he rallies to start Week 1. This is a buy-low moment for Richardson in dynasty leagues, but only because the fantasy football market is absorbing the Colts' pessimism about his future.
DK Metcalf (WR-PIT), George Pickens (WR-PIT)
Wide receivers in Arthur Smith offenses are already at a disadvantage for fantasy. Now that the Steelers have two downfield threats, the boom/bust factor week-to-week will be amplified for both receivers. They are still suitable best-ball picks, although at lower ADPs than they had before Metcalf was traded to the Steelers, but the rollercoaster ride will be nauseating in lineup-setting leagues. It doesn't appear that a trade of Pickens is on the horizon to improve the situation, although this does increase the chance that the Steelers will allow Pickens to walk in free agency next year.
JK Dobbins (RB-FA), Rico Dowdle (RB-CAR)
Both of these backs gave their teams strong play at a very cheap price last year but couldn't come to an agreement on returning at the opening of free agency. The Chargers instead signed Najee Harris to a modest one-year deal, and the Cowboys signed Javonte Williams to a one-year deal small enough to assume that Dallas will draft a running back to pair with him, likely as the early-down back. Dowdle grabbed a backup job in Carolina, but Dobbins could be on the market for a while.
Jalen McMillan (WR-TB)
Chris Godwin coming back on a three-year deal is a bummer for McMillan's outlook. His pre-free agency ADP is sure to come down, although McMillan did show a penchant for scoring and big plays that can help him still matter in big play leagues. His rookie year was still a very good indicator in dynasty leagues, so buy the dip. Godwin was also not very specific about where he is in his recovery from a dislocated ankle, so it's possible that he won't be 100% to open the season, giving McMillan another opportunity to show what he can do.
Cooper Kupp (WR-FA)
The Rams' actions spoke much louder than any words could. Signing Davante Adams for about the same as what Kupp would have cost this year is a strong message that they see more good football left in Adams than in Kupp, and no organization knows Kupp better than the Rams. Kupp will probably be a starter somewhere after his release, but his ADP should drop once we see where and at what price.
Christian McCaffrey (RB-SF)
It's possible that McCaffrey doesn't face competition for touches from Jordan Mason. David Lombardi might be correct that another team will send a mid-round pick to San Francisco for Mason. That still seems unlikely when you consider the caliber of back a team can get at four years of rookie-contract-level pay for the same price as one year of Mason at low-end starter-level pay. If he's still on the roster for Week 1, the 49ers will surely give Mason more work than they did when he only got seven touches in McCaffrey's three full 2024 games. McCaffrey wasn't exactly a fantasy force in those games, averaging around 13-14 PPR per game (RB2 level production) only because of his target volume. You're chasing the past if you draft McCaffrey in the second round.