With only the Super Bowl remaining, we can finally turn the page on the 2024 NFL season and shift our full attention to 2025. The deep dive into the incoming rookie class begins in earnest this month. Footballguys will soon be releasing its Rookie Guide, and having seen some previews and the work going on behind the scenes, I'm excited about this invaluable resource for evaluating the next wave of NFL talent.
In this month's article, I want to highlight the value of best ball average draft position (ADP) as a powerful tool for gaining an edge in dynasty leagues. Underdog has already launched its pre-draft 2025 best ball tournaments, with drafts kicking off in late January and running through the NFL Draft in April. These early drafts provide a unique opportunity to gauge how the fantasy community values veterans and rookies months before traditional redraft leagues take shape.
Thousands of real-money drafts have already occurred, with some of the sharpest and most engaged fantasy players weighing the risks and rewards of drafting returning veterans and incoming rookies. Analyzing these early ADPs helps us track trends and spot potential buying opportunities before dynasty ADP fully adjusts to the evolving 2025 fantasy landscape.
A major focus of this month's article is the 2025 rookie class, using Underdog's ADP as a key reference point for assessing prospect values. This is the most robust source of early market consensus on rookie rankings, giving us a strong foundation for identifying the key players to study over the next few months as we prepare for rookie draft season. We'll start with a position-by-position breakdown of the incoming rookies before shifting our focus to veteran players and how their values are evolving heading into 2025.
Veteran player values will be included at the bottom of the article in a single table. Please remember that these values are not updated throughout the month but are constantly updated in the Dynasty Trade Value Chart tool.
Early Rookie Player Values
In the tables below, the incoming 2025 rookie class is ranked based on their early best ball ADP from Underdog Fantasy, which is listed in the "ADP" column. I have also included my estimated dynasty trade value for each player (for one-quarterback leagues). These values provide a useful guide for assessing individual rookie pick values and comparing incoming rookies to veterans in early startup drafts that include rookies.
Based on the expectations of best ball drafters, Ashton Jeanty is projected to enter the league as the dynasty RB3 (behind only Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs). He is being drafted at the top of the second round on Underdog, with the consensus expectation that he will step in as a fantasy RB1 from day one.
If Tetairoa McMillan were a lock to go in the top six overall, his ADP would likely be inside the top 30. If he were guaranteed to go in the mid-first round, his ADP would likely be in the 60s. Best ball drafters seem to be splitting the difference, hedging their bets on whether he will be a very high pick or more in line with a typical mid-first-round rookie.
There is a clear second tier of four running backs being drafted well behind Jeanty but significantly ahead of anyone else at the position: Omarion Hampton, Kaleb Johnson, and Quinshon Judkins.
While there is a bit less separation at wide receiver, Luther Burden, Emeka Egbuka, and Matthew Golden have started to distinguish themselves as the second tier at the position.
Travis Hunter is the biggest wild card in this draft class. If he were guaranteed to be a full-time wide receiver, he would likely be going inside the top 50 overall, right alongside McMillan. Instead, drafters are hedging their bets, acknowledging the risk that he may primarily line up at cornerback.
In Superflex leagues, a clear top 15 includes the dozen players listed in the first group, along with Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, and Colston Loveland. There is a noticeable drop-off after this tier, though a few more players could emerge as hot commodities by the end of the draft process.
Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe are two potential risers if a team falls in love with their skill set and selects them inside the top 40 overall.
We will likely see a couple of running backs outside the current top five slide into the late second or early third round. Some of the leading candidates are on the list above.
That said, the overall weakness of the 2025 class becomes evident when looking at the early redraft ADPs and dynasty trade values of this group. Second-round rookie picks feel less valuable now than they did ahead of the 2024 rookie drafts.
One of the under-the-radar storylines emerging from the college all-star games is the strength of this rookie tight end class. While it won't generate as much hype as the 2023 class, it appears to be just as deep and at least as talented at the top.
Harold Fannin Jr. is a name to watch, as he could see a significant rise in value over the next few months, especially in TE-premium formats.