Dynasty Quarterbacks and Risk Tolerance

Dynasty fantasy football is where the stock market meets football. It's not about finding league winners and one-year wonders. It's about finding them and identifying when dynasty quarterbacks have hit their peak value but may fall off shortly. Just two years ago, Trey Lance went from a consensus top-12 dynasty quarterback to being outside the top 20, eventually fading into obscurity. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts was QB33 on these rankings in 2020. Now he's in the top five in most places and has scored more fantasy points than anyone not named Josh Allen in the past three seasons. But why they were valued this way is the purpose of this article. Dynasty quarterbacks aren't easy to rank, and identifying the risk associated with them can help managers decide whether to invest in the player or get out early.

How to Use Risk Tolerance to Your Advantage With Dynasty Quarterbacks

The Framework

Managers trying to evaluate risk for dynasty quarterbacks have to balance three things.

First, the upside/scoring potential of the player. Whether it's due to strong passing efficiency and good receivers (Joe Burrow) or rushing ability (every other quarterback in the top six this year), there has to be a case for true points.

Second, they must identify the perceived security of the player. Someone like Patrick Mahomes II has a bulletproof case to stay in the NFL as long as he wants to. Someone like Aidan O'Connell, not so much.

Lastly, and maybe most importantly for actually applying this idea, is evaluating the player's price. Jalen Hurts at QB33 is a much easier bet to make than Anthony Richardson, who was at top ten prices this time last year.

The security compared to the price is the risk associated with the player, while the scoring potential is the payout of the risk. A risky asset with no payout is a waste of time. A secure asset with a massive payout isn't a bet anymore; it's an Infinity Stone on a dynasty manager's gauntlet. Now that we have a framework for what makes up risk in dynasty quarterbacks, we must introspect.

Risk-seeking managers are those who want to take the big swings. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were once considered risky bets, but they've paid off tremendously. The wins are appealing, but there are plenty of misses. Risk-averse managers are okay with the safety Jared Goff brings. Some dynasty quarterbacks will likely never crack the top five at their position for fantasy football. But in Superflex leagues, that's okay! A QB2 with a long shelf life, a starting job, and a steady stream of points can help be one of the pieces that win a dynasty championship; they just won't be the only reason. Now that the difference is clear, let's look around the league and dynasty rankings to evaluate which quarterbacks are good trade targets for our risk seekers and which are a little more secure. 

Note: Each target uses the Footballguys dynasty rankings as price points. 

Risk-Seeking Quarterback Targets

Justin Fields - QB29

The security here is non-existent. Justin Fields is a free agent heading into 2025 and will either be on his third team in three years or in Pittsburgh on a short-term deal. But he wouldn't be a risk-seeker's target without tremendous upside. Fields is still unrefined as a passer but is one of the most explosive rushers at the quarterback position in the league. At a fairly stomachable price point, Fields is the ideal target among dynasty quarterbacks with this framework.

J.J. McCarthy - QB25

Is McCarthy the starter in Minnesota next year? Is his knee going to be ready? Is he even good? All reasonable questions, but that's why he's a risk-seeker's dream. Sam Darnold was just the QB9 on the season, and a lot of folks were convinced he was unsalvagable. McCarthy played a fairly low-volume offense at Michigan, but on film, he showed himself to be a competent passer with wheels to be a crafty scrambler at the next level. With their recent playoff loss, McCarthy's price has likely gone up, but until Darnold signs elsewhere, McCarthy will be worth the price tag. 

Drake Maye - QB13

Maye doesn't have the security of a solid offense around him but has shown enough that most people think he's good. But plenty of rookie quarterbacks have flashed and then didn't do enough to earn a second contract. Maye is still valued behind some dynasty quarterbacks that don't offer the same upside because of the concerns with the offense, but he was quietly in the top ten in rushing yards among quarterbacks despite only playing in 13 games. For managers wanting to take a high-priced leap, Maye offers the skillset and slightly more security than other options.

Risk-Averse Quarterback Targets

Trevor Lawrence - QB20

How many 25-year-old quarterbacks with a $275 million contract are this cheap? Trevor Lawrence hasn't had the fantasy impact many expected after his draft hype, but his job is beyond secure. He still has the prototypical size, arm talent, and mobility to succeed. He just hasn't put it all together yet. The organization would need him to be awful to move on, but he still provides enough upside to make any risk worth the price. 

Jared Goff - QB15

Every playoff win for Goff is another year of job security. Goff will always be labeled a trailer, not a truck, but he's in the perfect organization to succeed. With weapons all around him, Goff has been a top-ten fantasy quarterback for three years now. But his lack of enticing upside has kept his price relatively low. He doesn't rely on mobility for much and should continue to be between QB7 and QB20 for years to come. Not the flashiest of choices, but for risk-averse managers looking for dynasty quarterbacks, Goff is a great QB2 to plug into lineups.

Baker Mayfield - QB16

Another big contract, another great season, and Baker Mayfield is still one of the easier-to-acquire dynasty quarterbacks in the format. Risk-averse managers will flock to his contract security and buy-in from the organization, but Baker Mayfield was an example of a former number-one overall pick who gets multiple shots to succeed before flaming out. He went from helping as a scout team defensive end for the Carolina Panthers to the QB4 in fantasy football. In a fairly weak NFC South, he can continue to scoot the Buccaneers to the playoffs and keep his job for a long time.

Final Thoughts on Risk Tolerance and Dynasty Quarterbacks

Different managers will pursue different archetypes in dynasty fantasy football. An important caveat: every rookie quarterback is inherently risky. Low-floor quarterbacks don't exist in NFL evaluations as the speed of the game accelerates and safe pocket passers become overwhelmed. Risk-seeking managers are more willing to swing for the fences on guys who don't look like they've put it together yet, while risk-averse managers may want to pivot from those unknowns to dynasty quarterbacks with more job security.