Dynasty, in Theory: Do the Playoffs Matter?

There's a lot of strong dynasty analysis out there, especially when compared to five or ten years ago. But most of it is so dang practical-- Player X is undervalued, Player Y's workload is troubling, the market at this position is irrational, and take this specific action to win your league. Dynasty, in Theory is meant as a corrective, offering insights and takeaways into the strategic and structural nature of the game that might not lead to an immediate benefit but which should help us become better players over time.

A Short-Lived Result

Last week, I published the results of the 2024 rookie receivers through the lens of my prospect model-- always my most-requested piece of the year. I noted how tight the race was for the title of Top Rookie Receiver, writing, "McConkey led the pack based solely on yards, but including touchdowns edged Thomas ahead." Thomas scored a 125.5, while McConkey scored a 124.1.

That was true at the time, but kind of a lot has happened since then. McConkey caught 9 passes for 197 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card round; the next-best Chargers receiver recorded 2 catches for 16 yards. If we add the playoff data, McConkey's score rockets up to 128.4-- the fourth-best total ever recorded, trailing only Odell Beckham Jr, Ja'Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson.

But can we do that? Can we just add playoff data to the regular season data? Should we?

Do the Playoffs Matter?

To start, the answer to "can we just add playoff data to the model like that?" is yes, it's my model, I can do whatever I want with it. The "should we?" question is the more interesting one. It has a habit of cropping up from time to time. I remember hotly debating it after Gabriel Davis' 8/201/4 receiving game against the Chiefs to end the 2021 season.

Here are some arguments against including playoff data in the model in particular or any sort of overall evaluation in general:

It's Not Fair to Players Who Miss

Ladd McConkey made the playoffs, but Brian Thomas Jr. did not. This isn't because of any disparity in play between McConkey and Thomas themselves; McConkey had a better quarterback and a better coach; he played with a better defense. In many ways, it's not "fair" for Thomas to lose his lead on a weekend he didn't even get a chance to play because McConkey enjoyed advantages that had already given him an edge all year long.

It's Not Especially Fair to Players Who Make It, Either

On the other hand, playoff games are typically played in worse weather, and playoff opponents typically have above-average defenses. If a receiver plays poorly in a cold-weather game against a Top 5 defense after a strong regular season, it's not fair to them either to see their score fall when most of their peers were already planning their vacation.

Playoff Data Isn't Especially Predictive of Next Season, Anyway

After averaging 2.5 touchdowns per game in the 2021 playoffs, Gabriel Davis averaged fewer than 0.5 touchdowns per game during the 2022 regular season. Again and again, we see a big game in the postseason have a large impact on a player's dynasty value, only for them to disappoint the following season.

Ignore Those Arguments

Life is unfair. (My 12-year-old might prefer "womp womp" there.) Even without the playoffs, some rookies already play harder schedules or in worse weather than others. Some rookies get to play with Justin Herbert; others find their fate tied to Mac Jones. The point of the exercise is not to be fair but to be predictive.

And while playoffs (on their own) are not especially predictive of next season, neither is any other small sample. This is the case for incorporating playoff data in the first place: study after study (after study) finds that using an entire sample is more meaningfully predictive than slicing it into smaller subsamples that might seem superficially more relevant (such as "performance in the second half of the season" or "performance with this particular QB" or "performance with this other player out"). 

Any football game where everyone is trying to win produces good data. Football gives us few enough datapoints as it is, we'd be foolish to voluntarily toss some out. I don't think we should overweight the playoffs-- one game is still one game-- but the subtitle of this column is "Should we include playoff performances when evaluating players?" and the answer is yes. We absolutely should. 

So You'll Include McConkey's Playoff Performance In His Score?

Oh, absolutely not.