Dynasty players are ill. Frustratingly, stubbornly, irreparably ill. We're probably the illest, although not in a cool way like Biggie. Nope. We wear it like the stench of a Matt Millen draft pick. Like that feeling when the can't-miss prospect you draft everywhere fails so spectacularly that his career becomes a proper noun. Like the losses you can't forget and the wins you can't remember.

The illest.

This series attempts to understand how the NFL calendar impacts my dynasty rosters. Because, folks, when your friends start getting too good at this game, you must get creative to find advantages. 

This is just a foundation, though. Keep it flexible and adjust it as it makes sense for you and your league. Or, to paraphrase the Good Dr. HST, "I hate to advocate roster obsession in the winter, overdosing on data in the spring, maniacal roster management in the summer and fall, or insanity all year round to anyone, but they've always worked for me."

Today, we'll look at what to do while the NFL is focused on finishing its current season. We're past this point on the NFL calendar, but this will set you up for Part 2, linked below.

January and February: Self-Evaluation Season

Editor's Note: Whether reading this in January or during the summer, self-evaluating your roster is necessary.

The fantasy season is a memory, but the NFL playoffs are in full swing. There won't be much actionable dynasty information until the Super Bowl is over. Most of the football industry, real and fantasy, is largely focused on the ongoing playoffs and playoff contests. NFL teams not in the playoffs are filling coaching and front-office vacancies and prepping for free agency and the draft.

Nothing much is happening with individual players during these months, but as a dynasty manager, this should be one of your busiest times of the year.

I monitor offensive coaching hires and what they could mean for players on my rosters. This is when you might be able to sell high or buy low on players who get some perceived value change in January due to coach shuffling. 

That's helpful, but the better way I use my time during these months is to do an honest evaluation of the depth and talent of my rosters. I want to decide ASAP whether I'm going into next season as a contender or as a rebuilder.

Classify Your Dynasty Players

I look at my roster and group players into the following buckets. Sometimes, I tier players within the buckets, but not always. The idea is to get a feel for the quality and depth of the roster to help me decide whether I'm a legit contender.

Starters: This doesn't refer to actually setting lineups. I just want to list who I'd start if I had to set a lineup today. This is just my general "first team", if you will.

Rotation: The players on my roster, regardless of position, who should be useful contributors in the upcoming season, as potential starters or off the bench.

Young/Upside: My general rule of thumb is that this is for players who are in their third year or less but have not yet cracked regular playing time in real life. These are meant to be younger players with undeniable upside who have so far been blocked, maybe by injury or another player, but for some reason, I'm not comfortable relying on them yet.

Veteran Depth: This will be my catch-all bucket for players who can't be considered young or possess untapped upside but aren't in my rotation. These are handcuffs and assorted "break glass in case of emergency" veterans. The individual league settings will determine how valuable the players in this bucket are. Still, they are often players more valuable to my specific team than to the market in general. This is the first bucket I'm cutting players from if I think I can add a player in their place who fits into a higher bucket. 

Scratch-Offs: We were playing poker one night in high school, and one of our buddies won a hundred bucks. We stopped at a party store on the way home, and he decided to spend the whole wad on one-dollar scratch-off tickets because, the theory went, if you have 100 of them, there's NO WAY you won't make a profit. We watched him scratch them off, one by one, and not win a single dollar. Not. One. But it was still exciting because, on any one of them, he could've become a Thousandaire. Anyway, that's basically what the players in this bucket are. Every once in a while, one hits, and you buy everybody Big Gulps.

There aren't hard and fast rules to these buckets, and flexibility is always key because if I'm not doing some of this by gut feel well, friend, I ain't really livin'. But it gives me a starting point for assessing my roster's overall strengths and weaknesses and deciding what direction I want to take it in.

Decide Who Is Expendable and Who Is Part of the Core

Once I have those buckets, I will start trimming my roster, even if it is only on paper for now. I clear out whatever cloggers I can. Are you still hanging onto that third-string running back from three years ago who won't get a chance unless the two guys in front of him get hurt? That Combine darling from two classes ago? Shop them. Any pick is better than a guy you're just going to cut. If you can't move them for anything, get ready to cut them to make room for new additions in the coming months. 

During this time, I'm also looking for consolidation trades. Is there a position where I have the depth to package up a couple of second-tier players to someone needing depth in exchange for a top-tier player? If other managers are in self-evaluation mode and looking to start acquiring targets, this can be a good time to make one of these trades. Teams without some of their draft picks, for example, might be looking to the trade market to improve their overall depth and be willing to break an elite player down into a couple of great players.

Start Positioning Yourself in Your Dynasty Rookie Drafts

I start to position myself where I want to be in my rookie drafts before the league starts paying attention again. Once the NFL and rookie drafts roll around, there aren't many secrets left about incoming rookies. The guy you're getting in the third round of mock drafts in January or February could be a first-rounder by April or May. Rookie draft picks only get tougher to obtain as we march toward spring. If I've been keeping up with the incoming rookie class, I can get a feel for where I'd prefer to be in the first 20 picks or so and start trying to get there before other people do. 

Final Notes

• I delete the term "lineup" from my vocabulary during these months. My goal is to collect talent and build overall depth. I don't worry about a lineup at this point. If I'm collecting talent, the lineup should mostly take care of itself anyway.

• The end of the fantasy season brings some fantasy football fatigue, so around now, many managers in your leagues will take a break and tune out for a while. If you want to make a deal with one of those managers, do it quickly before they have completely checked out.

• Big roster changes loom, and a running back who looks safe on Valentine's Day can look shaky by St. Patrick's Day. In my experience, this is true at running back more than at any other position in dynasty. If I'm a contender who needs one, I'm trying to wait as long as I can to make a move - preferably well into the next season.

• However, if I'm rebuilding and have a top running back who won't be part of my core, I am shopping him. Just be ready to find that the market might be too soft at this point to yield optimal value. Hold if you can, and hope your running back stays healthy and can be leveraged for a better return once OTAs and the season start and contenders start suffering injuries.

Conclusion

It's a little counterintuitive that one of your busiest times as a dynasty manager comes when the NFL world is so hyper-focused on just a handful of its teams. If you came up playing redraft, you know that now is generally when your fantasy teams fade into your rearview. The shrewd dynasty player, however, is just digging in. Review our dynasty rankings to get started.

Click here for Part 2 in the series Decoding the Dynasty Calendar: Draft Season.

We'll be back with Part 3 soon. In the meantime, come and chat about all things dynasty on Blue Sky @DynastyDecode.bsky.social.