Dynasty players are ill. Frustratingly, stubbornly, irreparably ill. We're probably the illest, although not in a cool way like Biggie. Nope. We wear it like the stench of a Matt Millen draft pick. Like that feeling when the can't-miss prospect you draft everywhere fails so spectacularly that his career becomes a proper noun. Like the losses you can't forget and the wins you can't remember.

The illest.

This series attempts to understand how the NFL calendar impacts my dynasty rosters. Because, folks, when your friends start getting too good at this game, you must get creative to find advantages. 

This is just a foundation, though. Keep it flexible and adjust it as it makes sense for you and your league. Or, to paraphrase the Good Dr. HST, "I hate to advocate roster obsession in the winter, overdosing on data in the spring, maniacal roster management in the summer and fall, or insanity all year round to anyone, but they've always worked for me."

Today, we'll look at what to do while NFL teams are busy evaluating incoming rookies and free agents and players are busy training for the gauntlet to come.

March, April, and May: Draft Season

RELATED: Be sure to read Part 1 of this series, where you evaluate your rosters.

There used to be these things called malls. Navigating them could be confusing, so they would post maps around the place that would always show you where you were with a big arrow that said, "YOU ARE HERE."

I guess what I mean is, welcome to Part 2 of Decoding the Dynasty Calendar. YOU ARE HERE on the NFL calendar. You're right in the thick of it, Bubba.

Chess King and Camelot Music are over there, but if you want some musings on what you should be doing with your dynasty rosters all spring, read on.

This is what we're all playing dynasty for, isn't it? I mean, not since Madden introduced Franchise Mode has there been such a low-cost, low-risk way for all of us wannabe general managers to come this close to convincing ourselves that, yes, I DO think I can do this better than the Jets. After a short, post-Super Bowl lull, we start to get some action. News ramps up around events like the NFL Combine, pro days, free agency, the NFL Draft, and minicamps, and we start focusing on our early-spring rookie drafts. Stories roll in daily. The data and metrics I use for rookie drafts start to come into focus. Mock drafts, both real NFL mocks and rookie draft mocks, begin to proliferate.

Assess Coaching Changes

Importantly, teams will have filled any coaching/front office vacancies by this time on the NFL calendar. This means we can evaluate how new coaches in new places might impact a player's usage. Is the scheme going to change to one that doesn't favor your player? Is there a guy at your player's position that the new coach might bring along with him to create new competition? As new personnel settles in, we can find little places to take advantage if we consider these things before the rest of the league.

For example, do you remember when Ben Johnson and D'Andre Swift were together in Detroit? If you do, then you remember that Swift struggled to stay on the field. Worse, when he was on the field, he struggled to consistently make plays. He wore out his welcome in Detroit, and within a year of Johnson taking over as the offensive playcaller, the Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs and sent Swift to Philadelphia for a dollar and some envelopes.

Swift rebounded a bit for the Eagles, and he had some decent moments among the chaos in Chicago last year, but his short-term value, as a Bear at least, seems shaky. Johnson has come into Chicago and taken steps to beef up the offensive line. He's unlikely to replicate the Detroit offense 1:1,  but running the ball seems like it will be a staple of what Johnson wants to do in Chicago. His history with Swift suggests he might look elsewhere for the running back to do it.

Now, I'm not suggesting that you should be buying or selling Swift; that depends on the status of your particular roster and your needs. Like Swift, though, there are many players around the league whose opportunities - and therefore dynasty value - will evolve as coaches change seats around the league. If you keep an eye on these changes, you can get out in front of these swings and value and identify players you wish to target - whether for acquisition or divestment. The earlier you can identify and move on these players, the better. Once the post-free-agency analysis starts to come out, everything you've deduced will be common knowledge.

The NFL Combine, Pro Days, and the NFL Draft

I qualify as more of a data-cruncher than a film-grinder, although I'd say I'm probably guided more by instincts honed over a few decades of playing fantasy football than I am either of those first two. From early March until late April, the combine, pro days, and draft offer us unique opportunities during the silly season that is agent rumors, team smokescreens, and coachspeak run amok.

They require the truth to come out.

Players will be measured, tested, and thoroughly documented at the Combine and/or their pro days. Their measurements, speed, and the data we can glean from them are laid bare and set in spreadsheets in basements around the country. There's no more guessing, no more speculation, and no more what-ifs. The truth about their size, speed, and other characteristics has been told.

Similarly, once the NFL Draft kicks off in April, teams are on the spot. They will speak to us through their draft picks. They will tell us how they REALLY value certain players - both new draftees and veteran players who suddenly look like they'll be replaced - and they can't fudge it. Not even a little bit. Draft capital is valuable to NFL teams, except perhaps the Rams. How they use it speaks volumes. Pay attention, react accordingly, and you can find advantages as you build your rosters. 

The last pieces of data I need before rookie mocks - draft capital and landing spot - are some of the most important. From year to year, I might tweak the metrics I use to guide my rookie drafts, but draft capital and landing spot are always front and center. So, no matter what other metrics I use, I can't have the full set of information I need to evaluate rookies (and fallout to veteran players) until after the NFL draft in April. This timeline, and what date is most important, shifts if you are in a league that holds its rookie draft before the NFL Draft, but for the non-masochists out there, it should hold.

For me, volume and opportunity rule in dynasty leagues. I want players with a clear path to an opportunity to get touches. I don't care if that is through carries, receptions, or both. I just want players who might touch the ball a lot. I'm paying particular attention at this point to where the rookies land and what impact that will have on their ability to get touches early in their careers. As their opportunity and volume increase, so does their perceived dynasty value. Buy and sell opportunities await if you're proactive. You should also be looking at the impact new arrivals will have on veteran players. A perceived drop in value there could present buy-low opportunities for the shrewd dynasty manager.

Final Notes

• Whether I am a contender or a rebuilder, I still do not think about my lineups at this point. That won't really come until the calendar turns to dynasty pre-season in June. At this point, I am still trying to stack depth and talent wherever I can.
• There is a window here, around the time of my rookie drafts, when there is usually a flurry of activity. This is when I am willing to take big swings at running back if I think that is what I need to put a contender over the top. It's not the perfect time, but much of the running back landscape has settled by my rookie draft season in early May. Managers start to get a little looser with trades and a little more willing to part with a player they've had for a bit in favor of obtaining picks.
• I'm still being cautious, though. I don't want to spend up on a running back now only to have him blow out a knee in training camp. I'm only making a move during this window if it's a top-tier player I really want or if I get an offer I can't refuse. This window mostly shuts for me again once rookie drafts are over. At that point, I'm content to let training camp play out so I don't spend assets on someone who doesn't make it to September.

Conclusion

The NFL league year begins anew every March, and with it comes a flurry of activity as teams try to position themselves for a Super Bowl run in the coming season. Dynasty managers should keep one eye on all of it while keeping the other eye on how these moves will change the values of the players currently on their rosters.

Be on the lookout for Part 3 of Decoding the Dynasty Calendar. In the meantime come and chat all things dynasty on Blue Sky @DynastyDecode.bsky.social.