Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall-of-Famer Bob Harris and Gary Davenport have over 50 years of experience as fantasy football analysts and three Football Writer of the Year Awards between them. They know their stuff—or at least that's what they tell themselves.
The offseason keeps rolling on, and while the 2025 NFL Draft has begun to grab the lion's share of attention from fantasy managers (especially those in dynasty formats), we're still less than a month into free agency. There's a lot of veteran talent still looking for work.
Of course, there have also been dozens of fantasy-relevant signings. A QB swap in Seattle. A new lead back in Los Angeles. A not-so-small fortune was spent on wide receivers. And at tight end, um, well…hey, how about Evan Engram heading to Denver?
As they do from time to time in the offseason, Harris and Davenport have once again put their heads together—this time to break down the biggest fantasy hits and misses of 2025 in free agency.
In other words, Harris has valuable information to impart, and Davenport has, you know, stuff.
First Up, the Quarterbacks
The NFL's Quarterback Carousel has gone or quite the spin the past few weeks—and we haven't yet hit the NFL Draft. Which quarterback's fantasy prospects for 2025 were helped the most by free agency, and which took the biggest hit?
Harris: Assuming we don't get a surprise move -- like an Aaron Rodgers signing -- J.J. McCarthy is a winner. Yes, the 10th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft is unproven, but he'll play with one of the league's best receivers in Justin Jefferson and under Kevin O'Connell, who just helped Sam Darnold to a career year that earned him a big payday in Seattle.
In addition to Jefferson, the Vikings field a stacked group of skill players: Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones. They committed over $300 million in contracts in the first 10 days of free agency and traded for Jordan Mason, a solid complement to Jones.
Still, Jefferson and O'Connell are the biggest factors.
Jefferson has caught passes from Kirk Cousins, Sean Mannion, Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall, and Darnold -- and produced at a high level through it all, especially under O'Connell's leadership these past three seasons.
McCarthy's initial QB18 spot in the 2025 Footballguys Draft Projections reflects these advantages.
Meanwhile, Darnold enjoyed a bounceback year in 2024, playing MVP-level football in Minnesota. He posted career-best numbers -- likely for the same reasons McCarthy stands to succeed.
I like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ken Walker III, and Cooper Kupp, but Seattle's offensive line (30th in Footballguy Matt Bitonti's 2024 rankings) is a genuine concern. While Darnold reunites with play-caller Klint Kubiak from their 2023 stint in San Francisco, the environment isn't as favorable as what he had with the Vikings.
Also worth noting: Darnold's three-year, $100.5 million contract is effectively a one-year, $37.5 million deal with team options for 2026 and 2027. Could Darnold give way to Sam Howell by December if the Seahawks plan to move on? Darnold's QB24 projection bakes in that possibility.
Davenport: As usual, Harris wrote much of what I would have (better than I would have written it). But there are a couple of other names worth mentioning here.
It's not hard to call Justin Fields' move to the New York Jets a "win" for fantasy managers, if only because it gets Fields back on the, well, Field as an NFL starter again. Over his six-week stint as the starter for the Pittsburgh Steelers last year, Fields was sixth among quarterbacks in fantasy points. The year before, he was ninth in fantasy points per game with the Chicago Bears.
This writer (perhaps stubbornly) still believes that we haven't seen Fields' best as a passer in the NFL. The Jets admittedly aren't a good team, and the passing-game weapons are rather "meh" behind Garrett Wilson. But Wilson and Fields balled out together at Ohio State, Fields' ability to rack up fantasy points with his legs is a big-time plus, and a team that will trail with regularity isn't necessarily a bad thing for fantasy managers.
Garbage time, baby.
So far as losers go, can we please just stop with Aaron Rodgers? At this point, I don't know that his seemingly inevitable signing with the Steelers is even a good thing for the team. How long has it been since Rodgers looked like a four-time MVP? How is a quarterback who is all about precision and timing going to mesh with two improvisational receivers in George Pickens and DK Metcalf? Never mind the constant circus that now follows Rodgers everywhere—a circus he appears to rather enjoy.
I can't believe I'm writing this, but a not insignificant part of me believes the Steelers might actually be better off just rolling out Mason Rudolph under center. Seriously. Rodgers is going to wreck Mike Tomlin's stretch of non-losing seasons in the Steel City—and the fantasy value of Metcalf and Pickens.
Running It Back(s)
It has been something of a quiet year at running back in free agency—most players who have hit the road have done so on relatively modest deals. Which back's fantasy value has been helped most by the offseason so far, and who wishes they could go back in time?
Harris: Ben Roethlisberger was heading into his final season when the Steelers drafted Najee Harris in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Over the next three years, the team cycled through five different quarterbacks and three offensive coordinators.
"It was just a team where we lost Ben. We lost a lot of O-line," Harris said. "We just didn't know anything on offense, really. We didn't have any identity. We had a young guy coming in at quarterback. I was young. The team was young. I really didn't have nobody to almost learn from on the offensive side."
Now, Harris finds himself in a much better situation after signing a one-year deal with the Chargers worth up to $9.25 million.
Coming off four straight 1,000-yard seasons with at least six touchdowns each year, Harris is poised to thrive -- especially if the Chargers don't add significant competition to the backfield.
Rico Dowdle, on the other hand, didn't land in such a favorable spot.
Dowdle broke out last season with the Cowboys, rushing for 1,079 yards and two touchdowns while adding 39 catches for 249 yards and three scores. His 1,328 total yards ranked 20th in the league. He ended the year on fire, topping 100 rushing yards in four of his final six games. He finished 2024 as RB23 overall but was RB12 from Weeks 13–18.
Even if Dallas wasn't going to commit to him long-term, it's unlikely Dowdle will get a lead role in Carolina.
He joins a backfield led by Chuba Hubbard, who set career highs across the board in 2024 -- 1,195 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs, 43 receptions, and over 1,300 scrimmage yards. Hubbard's performance earned him a long-term extension as the Panthers' lead back.
What does that mean for Dowdle?
Well, Miles Sanders, a former Pro Bowler, managed just 353 yards from scrimmage and three total scores on 79 touches in 11 games behind Hubbard last year. That's likely the role Dowdle is stepping into.
Davenport: Ouch. Rico ain't so suave.
There's no denying that among free-agent running backs, Harris received the biggest boost in value. The question is going to be how much joining the Chargers will jack up his asking price—it wouldn't be the first time that all the value was sucked from a player by over-eager drafters.
Outside Harris, there's not really a lot to like. But depending on what the Dallas Cowboys do (or don't do) in the 2025 draft, Javonte Williams could be in for a career year. Williams didn't exactly light it up last year in Denver, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. But Dallas coaxed that career year from Dowdle in 2024 and actually paid Williams slightly more than Dowdle got from the Panthers.
As to the Cowboys also adding Sanders, my response would be, "So?" He's depth. A reserve. It's Williams' job to lose.
It pains me to write this because when he was healthy and at his best, Nick Chubb was a monster—arguably the best pure runner in the NFL. Power. Speed. He had it all.
The problem is that "had" part. After a miserable 2024 campaign where Chubb missed over half the season while recovering from yet another serious knee injury and averaged just 3.3 yards per carry when he was out there, interest in the 29-year-old has been non-existent.
Will Chubb be another offseason removed from that injury? Yep. Will someone sign him? Yep—at this point, the safest bet is probably a return to Cleveland on a "prove it" deal. Here's the cold, hard truth—Chubb looked washed in 2024. And sadly, that's a more likely outcome than a rebound in 2025—no matter where he lands.
