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Daniel Jones Contract Terms

Daniel Jones is signing a one-year deal with the Indianapolis Colts worth up to $17.7 million with $13.5 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network's Ian Rappaport.

Fantasy Football Impact

Daniel Jones was reportedly choosing between the Colts and Vikings, where he signed last year after being released by the Giants. Even though the Vikings just let last year's starter, Sam Darnold, leave in free agency, Minnesota did not appear to be Jones' best shot at a starting role with last year's first-round pick J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings.

In Indianapolis, Jones will compete against Anthony Richardson, who has started 15 games in his two NFL seasons. An injury to his throwing shoulder ended his rookie season in Week 5, just three weeks after he suffered a concussion. Last year, Richardson was benched for two weeks in October in favor of Joe Flacco. Although he returned two weeks later, he remained largely ineffective.

Jones was the sixth overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft and the second quarterback taken behind only Kyler Murray. It's probably best not to remind Giants fans that the seventh overall pick that year was Josh Allen, but Jones being chosen one pick earlier showed the Giants' faith in him as their quarterback of the future. In early 2023, the Giants reconfirmed their commitment to Jones by giving him a four-year, $160 million contract extension. Less than a year later, he was released, and the Vikings signed him to serve as Sam Darnold's backup. Jones did not see any game action in Minnesota, though he was added to the playoff roster. 

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The Fantasy Football Fallout

The fantasy impact of Daniel Jones' signing depends on how the quarterback competition between him and Richardson plays out. If Jones wins the starting job, his wide receivers should see more catchable passes than Richardson has delivered thus far. Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. should see immediate bumps in production. If Richardson remains the starter, improvement will likely be minimal at best.

Richardson has completed 50.6 percent of his passes in the NFL, ranking 54th of 54 quarterbacks who attempted at least 200 passes over the past two seasons. According to Stathead's metrics, 26.3 percent of his throws were "poor". Richardson has 11 career passing touchdowns and 13 interceptions. His 3.7 percent interception rate is the highest for any quarterback with at least 10 starts during the past two seasons.

Jones is a significantly more accurate passer. He has completed 64.1 percent of his pass attempts over six seasons, with 12.9 percent of his passes graded as "poor". In his career, Jones has thrown 70 touchdowns and 47 interceptions; however, his performance over the last two seasons (10 touchdowns, 13 interceptions) resembles that of Richardson more closely. It's worth noting that Jones played behind a porous offensive line, which our Matt Bitonti ranked second to last in the league, while the Colts' offensive line is more middle of the pack.

More accurate passes equate to more receptions and receiving yards, which means more fantasy points. Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr stand to gain the most from Jones' arrival, but Jonathan Taylor may also see more targets. Prior to Richardson's arrival, Taylor averaged 3.0 targets per game, but his volume dropped to just over two with Richardson. In New York, Saquon Barkley averaged 5.1 targets per game while playing with Jones.

The Colts signed Daniel Jones in hopes that he would become this year's Sam Darnold, a castaway quarterback who thrived in a new environment with more talent around him. Jones' dynasty managers may not want to rejoice just yet. The Colts have not committed to him. His contract is for one year and $14 million, well below the market rate for a starting quarterback. However, this is a starting job he can win, which was far from assured in Minnesota.

If Richardson loses the starting job, he may become this year's Justin Fields, an elite runner but mediocre passer who cannot elevate the talent around him. For dynasty managers, the specter of a bust continues to loom over the faith they had in drafting or trading for Richardson.

Stock Watch

Risers

Daniel Jones
Michael Pittman Jr
Josh Downs

Fallers

Anthony Richardson

Overview

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