The fantasy football season is over, which means we need a playoff contest to use everything we've learned this season to prove our acumen. Luckily, the NFFC has us covered with their Postseason Hold ‘em and Mini Playoff Hold 'em contests. Like all playoff contests, it requires a combination of picking the best fantasy scorers and predicting the winners of playoff games to take home the $150,000 (on a $200 entry, with a maximum of 1650 entries!) first prize or $50,000 (on a $50 entry, with a maximum of 2500 entries!) first prize. The rules are somewhat straightforward, save for a twist that will reward the most forward-thinking entries.
Rules and Scoring (Read their rules or our article on them before going on here!)
Let's consider what a perfect Week 1 lineup for this four-week contest would look like.
Step 0: Project the Playoff Bracket
It will be nearly impossible to assemble a lineup unless you project out the playoff bracket. If not every game, at least your Super Bowl favorites and the teams you project to lose to them in the conference title games.
Step 1: Consider the Multiplier
Player production will be multiplied by the number of weeks they have been in your lineup. That makes it easy to have two "free squares" - the highest-scoring player from each team you think will end up in the Super Bowl. Detroit and Kansas City are the #1 seeds, but they might not be your Super Bowl favorites.
Even if you don't think the Lions will end up in the Super Bowl, you should still put your top-ranked player from both teams in your lineup. The alternative is to play someone from every team in action on wild-card weekend, but then your Lions/Chiefs from Divisional weekend will only count 1x instead of 2x. If those teams go on, your multiplier will still lag behind other entries.
The Lion to put in your lineup is easy - Jahmyr Gibbs, who put on a show in the season finale to lock in the #1 seed and home-field advantage. The Chief is a little more complicated.
If your Super Bowl favorites are not the Chiefs and Lions, you'll want to lock in the quarterbacks from those teams. For instance, if you're projecting a Ravens/Eagles Super Bowl, your quarterbacks should be Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts.
That means your Chief will be the highest-scoring player who is not a quarterback. Xavier Worthy is probably the pick. If you have the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes II is in your lineup. Suppose you are projecting someone other than the Chiefs to play the Lions in the Super Bowl. In that case, you are probably still going with Mahomes, paired with the quarterback of the AFC team you are projecting in the big game because you will still get 2x Mahomes in the divisional game and 3x Mahomes in the AFC Championship game.
The exception would be if you are projecting the Chiefs to lose in the divisional game. That would almost have to be to the Chargers, who will face them if they win in Houston and the Ravens and Bills hold serve at home. Then you should play Justin Herbert over Mahomes because you'll want to have him 3x in the AFC title game over Mahomes, who will be eliminated. Then you'll likely pair Herbert with the quarterback of your AFC favorite unless it's Herbert. In that case, you'll pair Herbert with the quarterback of either your NFC Super Bowl team or, if that's the Lions, the team you project to lose to the Lions in the NFC Championship game.
Bottom Line: Jahmyr Gibbs is in your lineup. Patrick Mahomes II is in your lineup unless you are projecting the Chiefs to lose in the divisional round or if you are projecting neither of the Lions and Chiefs to make it to the Super Bowl. Then you'll want to plug in Xavier Worthy.
Step 2: Eliminate the Suck
If we have two non-scoring players in our 12-player Wild Card Weekend lineup, and we can only have one player per team, we'll have to exclude two teams from our Wild Card Weekend lineup. Since all of the players on teams that advance will be worth 2X their points in the divisional round - if you don't replace them with another player on a Super Bowl pick to try to set up 3X Super Bowl points for them - you probably want to avoid the teams that are most likely to lose on Wild Card Weekend.
Based on Las Vegas lines, the Pittsburgh Steelers are the biggest underdog, and their offense has been less than inspiring lately. Let's assume that we won't include a Steeler. The next biggest underdog is the Broncos, followed by the Packers. Las Vegas is projecting the Broncos to score 19.5 (based on the line and over/under) and the Packers to score 20.5.
That's close, but the Broncos are much bigger underdogs and less likely to give you a player that would carry a 2X multiplier into the divisional round. The other consideration is that the most attractive non-quarterback (remember, we are saving those spots for Super Bowl favorites or at least teams that we project to go to the conference title game) for the Broncos is a wide receiver, Courtland Sutton, and the most attractive non-quarterback on the Packers is Josh Jacobs.
So perhaps if we are down to our last slot and it is a WR/TE spot (this contest collapses the two positions into one), then we might go with Sutton over Jacobs since, in reality, neither team is likely to advance.
Bottom Line: Don't choose any Steelers and expect to avoid the Broncos too.
Step 3: Pick Your Quarterbacks
We laid out this decision process above:
Your two quarterbacks should be from your Super Bowl favorites unless one of your Super Bowl favorites is the Lions. Then your two quarterbacks should be from your AFC favorite and the team you project to lose to the Lions in the NFC championship game or the quarterback of the team you project to lose to your favorite in the AFC championship game. Patrick Mahomes II will be one of your quarterbacks unless you project Kansas City to lose in the divisional round, or perhaps if you have the Lions beating a team in the NFC championship game that has an elite fantasy quarterback - Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, or Jayden Daniels. For me, that will be Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.
Bottom Line: Lock in the highest-scoring quarterbacks you expect to play at least three games.
Step 4: Choose Your RB2 and RB3.
Let's assume Gibbs is your RB1. What about those other two spots? We've already eliminated Steelers and Broncos backs.
Who else deserves a mention? Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, James Cook, Kyren Williams, Bucky Irving, Josh Jacobs, and Joe Mixon. Of course, if any of these backs are on your Super Bowl favorites, you have used your slot for their team on their quarterback. So you will add the backs from teams you predict will win on Wild Card Weekend but not go to the Super Bowl. For me, that's going to be Derrick Henry and Bucky Irving. Cook and Barkley are out after I decided to use their quarterbacks in Step 3.
Bottom Line: Your RB2 and RB3 should be fantasy RB1s that you expect to win on Wild Card Weekend.
Step 5: Deploy Your Receiver Corps
The NFFC has done us the favor of folding wide receiver and tight end into one position. With Jahmyr Gibbs in our lineup from the Lions over Sam LaPorta and Lamar Jackson or Derrick Henry in over Mark Andrews, there's no reason to consider a tight end.
Let's consider who deserves to be on our candidate list: A.J. Brown, Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Terry McLaurin, and Nico Collins stand out as clear WR1s in their offenses. The Vikings don't have a strong running back option, and you probably aren't projecting them to go to the Super Bowl. So let's pencil in Jefferson. Brown probably won't be in our lineup over Barkley.
That leaves Evans, Nacua, McLaurin, and Collins, although you might have used a spot on Xavier Worthy if you think the Chiefs aren't headed back to the Super Bowl. I can't use Evans because I chose Irving above. I am using Worthy, so out of Nacua, Collins, and McLaurin, I just need to leave out the receiver from the team I think is least likely to win. That's Washington, so McLaurin is out.
Bottom Line: Justin Jefferson is in your lineup, and we have a short list of candidates for the other spots.
Step 6: Time to Flex
After you fill in your wide receivers, you'll only have a few teams left to pick from. One of them is likely the Packers, but we don't expect them to win. One is the team of a top wide receiver that you left out because you expect them to lose (in my case, that's to be Washington with McLaurin).
The other is probably the Chargers unless you are projecting them to go to the Super Bowl or at least upset the Chiefs and play in the AFC Championship game. If you aren't using Justin Herbert, the resurgent J.K. Dobbins or #1 receiver Ladd McConkey is a good play here. You'll want to pick the best RB/WR from the team that you think is most likely to win of the three.
Bottom Line: Your flex pick shouldn't be difficult, with only three teams to pick from.
Step 7: Don't Forget Team Kicker and Defense
We're down to Washington and Green Bay and need a team kicker and defense. Washington has a less reliable kicker, and they are facing a more turnover-prone quarterback, so I'll go with Washington's defense and Green Bay's kicker.
Bottom Line: Your kicker and defense picks are more of a formality than anything to agonize over.
Our Lineup
QB1: Josh Allen, BUF
QB2: Jalen Hurts, PHI
RB1: Jahmyr Gibbs, DET
RB2: Derrick Henry, BAL
RB3: Bucky Irving, TB
WR/TE1: Justin Jefferson, MIN
WR/TE2: Puka Nacua, LAR
WR/TE3: Nico Collins, HOU
WR/TE4: Xavier Worthy, KC
FLEX: Ladd McConkey, LAC
K: Green Bay Packers
DEF: Washington Commanders
I'll have to fill the HOU/LAC loser, LAR/MIN loser, TB/WAS loser, PHI/GB loser spots, and Henry and Allen if the Ravens or Bills are upset in their Wild Card games. Two of those spots will be an additional Lion and Bill (my AFC favorite, assuming they beat Denver), and the other two will likely go to second players from a team most likely to advance to the conference championship, and we're off! Good luck!