It was a complicated process, but Jacksonville officially has its new head coach. Two days after reportedly withdrawing his name from consideration, former Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen is under contract with the Jaguars, the team announced on Friday.
"To repeat my message earlier this week, I am deeply committed to building a winner here in Jacksonville. I also believe in being judged by actions, not words. That's why I took swift and decisive action this week to hire Liam Coen as the new head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars," owner Shad Khan said in a statement released by the team. "I am pumped that Liam is accepting the challenge and opportunity to build the winner that Jaguars fans and partners fully deserve. I know our players feel the same."
The Bucs probably don't share in Khan's enthusiasm.
Coen was set to remain with the Buccaneers on a new contract, making him one of the league's highest-paid coordinators. But Coen disappeared for much of Wednesday and Thursday. The team finally heard from their offensive coordinator late Thursday.
It wasn't the message they wanted as they learned Coen would be taking Khan's offer.
As Profootballtalk.com framed the story, "It capped a wild ride, sparked by Jacksonville's surprise decision to fire general manager Trent Baalke."
According to The Athletic's Dianna Russini, Coen got on the plane back to Jacksonville after team officials called him directly and explained they would let him pick the general manager and pay him Ben Johnson-level money along with multiple years.
The decision to move on from Baalke cleared the way for Coen to want the job and underscored the widespread belief in league circles that multiple candidates didn't want to work with Baalke.
So now, for the second straight year, Tampa Bay will have to replace an offensive coordinator who became a head coach after one season on the job. In turn, the 39-year-old Coen will become the eighth head coach in Jaguars history, replacing Doug Pederson, whom Khan fired on Jan. 6 after three seasons in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars went 4-13 in 2024, the 10th time in Khan's 13 seasons as owner his team has posted double-digit losses.
Beyond The Drama
Coen will become the fourth-youngest active head coach in the NFL, behind only the Seattle Seahawks' Mike Macdonald (37), Chicago Bears' Ben Johnson (38) and Los Angeles Rams' Sean McVay (38).
Coen has spent 15 seasons as an assistant coach, including 10 at the collegiate level. He spent four seasons with the Rams under McVay as an assistant wide receivers coach (two years), assistant quarterbacks coach, and offensive coordinator (2022), and then this past season with the Buccaneers under Bowles.
According to ESPN's Dan Graziano, the Jaguars weren't the only team interested in Coen, who is respected around the league for his offensive scheme and ability to coach it. He was part of getting Baker Mayfield's career back on track when the veteran QB finished the 2022 season with the Rams (and then he, of course, continued the success Dave Canales had with Mayfield in 2023 when he got to Tampa Bay this past season).
So maybe he's the right guy to get Trevor Lawrence back on track. Whether he's successful or not, Coen's move has tons of fantasy impact.
Fixing The Jaguars
The first pick overall in the 2021 draft, Lawrence will be on his third full-time coach and fourth play-caller in five seasons in the NFL. He completed just 60.6 percent of his passes for 2,045 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 10 games last season.
Bigger picture: Coen will look to improve a Jaguars offense that was 25th in total net yards and 26th in points scored last season.
He has the talent to turn it around. That includes one of the best young wideouts in the league in Brian Thomas Jr.. The Jags will also get Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis back, and Evan Engram still has one year left on his contract (although the team has a potential out and could move on from him).
At running back, the tandem of Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby struggled to find running room last season.
The Jaguars ranked 31st in average yards before first contact per rush (2.15) and 30th in total rushing yards before first contact (1,867) from 2023-24, per ESPN Research. In Coen's lone season in Tampa Bay, the Bucs averaged 3.0 yards per rush before first contact (sixth in the NFL) and seventh with 1,448 total rushing yards before first contact.
The Bucs had nearly as many total rushing yards before first contact in 2024 than the Jaguars did in the past two seasons on 384 fewer carries.
Assuming he will call plays as a head coach, ESPN.com's Mike DiRocco believes Coen's No. 1 priority should be landing a top offensive line coach. That unit seems set with bookend tackles Walker Little and Anton Harrison, but they've struggled in the run game the past two seasons, especially in the middle.
Setting Expectations
While Coen's arrival could lead to positives, fantasy investors should keep expectations in check.
With a 14.1-point per-game average in the 10 games he played, Lawrence ranked 24th in the NFL.
But we've seen the upside. Lawrence finished 2023 as QB12, scoring 17.2 points per game. He was QB6 in 2022, averaging 18.1 points per game.
Since he'll almost certainly be drafted in QB2 territory, Coen's presence and track record make Lawrence's previously demonstrated upside more intriguing. The presence of Thomas, who will likely be a late-first to early second-round pick in fantasy drafts this year, is also a factor. A healthy Kirk and Engram could be draft values after coming up short for investors last season.
It remains to be seen how Coen handles the backfield, but fantasy investors will be hoping for a more predictable split than we saw last season. Etienne finished the year as RB35 (with an 8.8-point per-game average). Bigsby wound up one spot behind his teammate at RB36 with 8.7 points per week. Etienne is entering a contract year, which could motivate him to improve.
Whatever the case, if we gain some clarity on the timeshare, Coen oversaw a complete overhaul of Tampa Bay's rushing attack, improving the NFL's worst-ranked rush offense in 2022 and 2023 to a ground game that finished third in yards per rush and fourth in rush yards per game in 2024.
What's Next In Tampa Bay?
Hired by Tampa Bay to replace Canales, who left the Bucs to become coach of the Panthers, Coen's reunion with Mayfield resulted in one of the best offenses in Bucs history.
Mayfield's passer rating of 106.8 was a franchise record, and the Bucs were the only team in the NFL to rank in the top five in passing yards per game (250.4) and rushing yards per game (149.2). The Bucs ranked in the top five in total offense (399.6 yards per game), scoring (29.5 points per game), rushing, passing, third down conversions (a league-high 50.9 percent), and red zone efficiency (66.7 percent).
In addition, Mayfield set career highs in passing yards (4,500), passing touchdowns (41), and completion percentage (71.4 percent) -- all of which ranked in the top three in the NFL.
As a result, Mayfield finished fourth in fantasy points among quarterbacks, averaging 21.6 points per game, behind only Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. While Coen's successor remains to be seen, Mayfield's 2025 outcomes are more likely to be favorable than not; fantasy investors still might get a discount based on concerns with the change of playcaller.
The same goes for Bucky Irving. The rookie finished as RB14 on the season but was seventh at the position over the final nine weeks. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin was second in points scored per game among wideouts before getting hurt. Mike Evans scored 11 touchdowns and finished as WR12 on the season despite missing three games with a hamstring injury.
Godwin, coming off a serious ankle injury, is set to become a free agent and might not even be back with the team next season. And while Evans has shown no signs of slowing down, he will be entering his age-32 season.
As SI.com's Michael Fabiano suggested, we won't get a clear picture of what the Bucs offense will look like until a replacement is hired, but for now, there's at least some reason to question whether Tampa Bay's fantasy stars will shine without Coen.
Possible replacements include in-house candidate Josh Grizzard, who was passing game coordinator under Coen. Outside candidates include current Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, Ohio State Buckeyes coordinator Chip Kelly, Seahawks passing game coordinator Jake Peetz, and Rams TEs coach/passing game coordinator Nick Caley. LaFleur and Kelly have playcalling experience at the NFL level.
The Big Winner . . . For Now
As ESPN.com's Ben Solak wrote, "The Jags, because they are the Jags, bungled this process, and now Coen enters Jacksonville with the ability to influence the hire of the next GM, which is a lot of power to give a young, relatively untested coach." In addition, they're paying a huge premium. According to PFT's Mike Florio, the early figure on the NFL grapevine for Johnson's contract in Chicago is $13 million per year.
If Coen is getting similar money, as reported, and that level of control, the new coach is the biggest winner here.
Only time will tell if the Jaguars get a win.
There are no guarantees. Solak explained, "Hiring the offensive flavor-of-the-month is also, while a defensible idea, often risky. Coen has exactly five years of NFL coaching experience and one year of NFL play-calling experience. It is a thin résumé and, accordingly, a big leap."
With all that said, Florio's argument that Mayfield should probably get a percentage of whatever Coen and Canales are currently making has plenty of merit.
Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can listen to Harris on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.