Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
The Green Flag Has Been Waived
The NFL Draft is in the books. And with that, the 2025 fantasy football season begins in earnest.
I know. I've been drafting and writing about the resulting values for over a month. It's mostly been best balls and Dynasty (yes, I draft in a league where our rookie draft is before the NFL Draft). Nonetheless, everybody has a helmet, and we have the information we need to start seriously dialing in our projections.
We also have a better understanding of what teams really think. Draft capital tells no lies.
With that, the goal of this week's Fantasy Notebook is to get our first "at-a-glance" feel for the landing spots, schemes, and competition the incoming prospects will face, the truths told by the draft capital invested, and how those circumstances impact a player's fantasy fortunes and our strategies.
Looking for a deeper dive and more immersive experience? You'll find Fantasy Outlook Instant Reaction articles for all the relevant skill players selected (I also link to pertinent pieces on players included below) with full breakdowns of their potential impact and how the newcomers might change the values of those around them.
On Wednesday, we'll release the Rookie Draft Guide Version 3.0, updated with Fantasy Outlooks, team depth charts, and other new information not found in Version 2.0. Version 3.0 will be available for download free to Elite level (and higher) Footballguys subscribers. Version 2.0 will continue to be available free to all comers.
With the formalities out of the way, let's dive in . . .
The Surest Thing
Day 1 of the NFL Draft saw 10 fantasy-relevant players come off the board. How many of them should we view as immediate impact prospects?
How About One?
As FOXSports insider Jordan Schultz suggested, "Pete Carroll gets a new Marshawn Lynch" -- it's Beast Mode 2.0 in Ashton Jeanty, a three-down back selected at No. 6 overall who's demonstrated his ability to make an impact on the ground and as a receiver while picking up more than 2,700 yards from scrimmage at Boise State last season.
It's the team's first pick since hiring Carroll and General Manager John Spytek, and it shows that Carroll will try to re-create a style of offense similar to the one he used in Seattle.
That should make offensive coordinator Chip Kelly happy as he puts together the plan for the 2025 season. It should also make life easier for quarterback Geno Smith as he tries to turn things around for the Raiders in his first season with the team.
Heading into the draft, Jeanty compared himself to Eagles superstar running back Saquon Barkley in an article for The Players' Tribune, saying that as he saw Barkley's incredible season, he thought about the things he can do in the NFL. "Most people, they watched the Eagles win the Super Bowl a couple of months ago, they watched Saquon run through everyone in the playoffs, and they thought to themselves, 'This is amazing,'" Jeanty wrote. "I watched it, and I thought something different. I thought, 'That can be me.'"
Jeanty structured his article as a letter to NFL general managers, and he said Barkley is the player they should compare him to.
"If you pick me, it's simple: I'm coming to your franchise to do what Saquon and the Eagles just did," Jeanty wrote. "I'm coming to win, big, soon."
This year's running back class is strong, and Scouts Inc. has 11 ranked in the top 100, the most since a 2008 class that included Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, and Jamaal Charles.
One factor, however, separates Jeanty from the pack: He has a remarkable ability to break tackles and gain yards after contact.
Jeanty had 1,733 rushing yards after contact last season. His total rushing yards after contact are the most by any FBS player in a season over the past five years.
Given the talent and a clear path to workload in what's likely to be a run-heavy offense under Carroll and Kelly, Jeanty will be the first rookie off the board in your fantasy leagues drafts this summer -- likely as a late first or early second-round pick -- regardless of the format.
Footballguy Jason Wood's initial projection matches that: Jeanty opens as RB5 . . .
The Rest Of The Round 1 Pack
All the first rounders here have the potential to become dangerous playmakers. But all of them face challenges in some form . . .
Taking A Bold Stance
As John Oehser of the team's official website wrote, "The Jaguars not only shocked the NFL world Thursday, they did so in historical fashion when they moved up three spots to select University of Colorado wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter with the No. 2 overall selection in the '25 draft."
Footballguy Sigmund Bloom explained in his Pre-Draft Bloom 100 that Hunter, the best wide receiver in this draft, also happens to be the best cornerback.
So it's fair for fantasy investors to wonder how valuable he'll be this season.
The level of equity sent to Cleveland makes it clear how much the Jaguars believe in the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner.
But you don't have to take my word for it.
"There are players that you can target and acquire who alter the trajectory of a game. There are players that you can target and acquire that alter the trajectory of a football team," Jaguars general manager James Gladstone said moments after making the pick. "There are very few, and it's rare to be able to target and prioritize a player who can alter the sport itself.
"And Travis is somebody that we view has the potential to do that."
Let that comment sink in and realize how bold moving up three spots in his first draft with the team is for a first-time GM who views Hunter as potentially changing the direction of a franchise that hasn't made back-to-back playoff appearances since 1996 to 1999.
At the very least, Oehser contends that Hunter joins quarterback Trevor Lawrence as the Jaguars' keystone players.
Hunter, who played 1,481 snaps and averaged 113.9 yards per game in 2024, told reporters he's eager to have a similar workload with the Jaguars. Gladstone said the plan is to start Hunter on offense and work him in on defense as he grows more comfortable.
Meanwhile, Bloom believes head coach Liam Coen's offense has the ability to support two WR1s.
"Even though Hunter won't be a true alpha with Brian Thomas Jr. already holding that job down," Bloom wrote, "he still has a quicker path to the top end of his range of outcomes that he would have had in Cleveland or New York, and a better chance of sustained success."
Hunter was going as WR37 in pre-NFL Draft best balls.
I suspect the price will rise, but I'm not sure it will go up enough to make taking a chance on him cost-prohibitive. I'll invest if Hunter remains in the WR3 range or lower. That's especially true in best ball, where any uncertainty about a consistent weekly role and the potential for spike weeks work in my favor.
In Dynasty formats, Hunter's elite athletic profile and dual-threat potential make him a high-upside investment . . . .
More Intrigue
In addition to Hunter, uncertain roles and workloads also await new Carolina wideout Tetairoa McMillan, selected at No. 8; running back Omarion Hampton, who went to the Chargers at 22 overall; tight ends Colston Loveland, selected 10th by the Bears, and Tyler Warren, who went at 14 to the Colts. The same goes for newly-minted Buccaneers wideout Emeka Egbuka and speedster Matthew Golden, drafted by Green Bay. Both join crowded fields that will likely limit their opportunities . . .
The first pick overall, quarterback Cam Ward, will be an immediate starter for the Titans but not likely for your fantasy team. The Giants traded up to land Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart at 25, but Russell Wilson remains their starter -- for now . . .
Let's dig a little deeper . . .
Panthers Land A Playmaker
McMillan, who comes off back-to-back seasons of at least 84 catches, 1,300 yards, and more than 15 yards per reception, gives Bryce Young a legitimate big-play threat. In the moment, this is better news for Young than McMillan, who will work alongside Adam Thielen, last year's first-round pick Xavier Legette, and Jalen Coker.
Still, in terms of willingness to invest, McMillan is next on my list as a viable WR3-level play in redraft and best-ball formats. Of course, his long-term Dynasty value could grow quickly if he asserts himself as Young's top deep threat, and Thielen's age adds to that interest . . .
Tighten It Up
Loveland won over a lot of front offices throughout the pre-draft process. At 6-6, 248 pounds with legit speed, he just broke the Wolverines' single-season record with 56 catches. He could be a significant weapon for incoming coach Ben Johnson and quarterback Caleb Williams in Chicago, but he must prove himself.
Johnson leaned heavily on two TE sets in Detroit, so Loveland and veteran holdover Cole Kmet will likely see a lot of time together. With Keenan Allen no longer on the roster, Loveland could also line up in the slot. Footballguy Dave Kluge contends that a receiving corps boasting Loveland, Kmet, DJ Moore, and Rome Odunze allows Johnson to create mismatches on defenders and play up-tempo with the same grouping. Johnson's creative playcalling with an array of versatile weapons on the field should make Williams' job easy.
Warren's landing spot with Indianapolis raises concerns. Neither Anthony Richardson nor Daniel Jones inspires great confidence as passers, and head coach Shane Steichen's offense has done nothing to elevate pass catchers like Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, or Adonai Mitchell.
Johnson was going as TE13 in pre-NFL Draft best balls; Warren was going as TE7. I expect that order to swap post-NFL Draft. Even if that doesn't happen, Dynasty managers should note Loveland's long-term upside as Williams' potential safety blanket in a high-tempo attack . . .
No Choice But To Get Stronger?
As Profootballtalk.com noted, the Buccaneers didn't necessarily need a receiver. Still, absent any other glaring needs, they opted to plan for a not-too-distant future without receiver Mike Evans by adding Ohio State's Egbuka. Receiver Chris Godwin is coming off a serious ankle injury, but the Buccaneers re-signed him in free agency.
Egbuka, if he pans out, will keep the Buccaneers competitive and relevant -- even though they continue to be underrated.
So, while it may seem like a surprise, what else were they going to do?
They're loaded at most positions. They're even more loaded at the receiver position. So I'm not big on Egbuka's short-term outlook, but he adds some confidence to those drafting Bucs QB Baker Mayfield at or slightly ahead of his current QB7 ADP. Meanwhile, if you're a Dynasty investor with Jalen McMillan shares, I feel your pain . . .
Chargers Double Down
The Denver Broncos passed on Hampton at No. 20. They now will have to face him twice a year for however long he plays for the Chargers.
Hampton will join Najee Harris in the running back room after rushing for 3,565 yards and 36 touchdowns in three seasons at UNC. Harris became a Charger in free agency after rushing for 1,000 yards in four consecutive seasons in Pittsburgh.
Why double down on the position?
General manager Joe Hortiz said that he didn't think Hampton would be on the board when Los Angeles came up at No. 22.
"[H]e was one of those unanimous guys, and you kind of anticipate unanimous guys being gone. But we're fired up he was there," Hortiz said. "A lot of love for him, a guy we felt could impact our team and really a guy who's held his water through the entire process."
Harris had been going as RB22 in pre-NFL Draft best balls. That price is going to drop. Hampton was going as RB15, likely on the expectation he'd be a Bronco. Now that he'll be sharing -- at least to some degree with Harris -- the price will drop. The rookie's initial Footballguys projection calls for an RB23 finish; Harris now sits at RB29.
All that said, Hampton's Dynasty value remains strong given Harris' mileage and potential contract situation after 2025 . . .
Golden Mining
The Packers added a wide receiver in the first round for the first time since 2002. With Christian Watson likely to miss the 2025 season after tearing an ACL late last year, Golden's big-play ability should provide Jordan Love with some opportunities downfield.
But consistent fantasy production?
I have a hard time envisioning Golden being a more reliable weekly threat than any of the team's already inconsistent fantasy producers at the position, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks. Our initial projection -- WR39 -- reflects that. In Dynasty, Golden's downfield skill set makes him a valuable high-variance stash, especially if Love returns to the form we saw down the stretch in 2023 . . .
Low-Impact Under Center
As for the quarterbacks . . . As an immediate starter, Ward is of immediate interest in Super-Flex Dynasty formats. But even at that, he went with the fourth pick overall -- after Jeanty, Hampton, and Warren (in a TE-premium scoring) -- in a league I'm in that holds our rookie draft before the NFL Draft. It's possible Ward would have moved ahead of Hampton and Warren had the drafters involved known their landing spots, but the fact the Titans' new starter wasn't the 1.01 tells you something.
Even though it's entirely possible Dart, who was reportedly hand-picked by head coach Brian Daboll, ends up starting games this season, his only value is as a developmental player in Dynasty formats . . .
This And That: Day 2 And 3 Musings
On Day 2, 19 more skill players found their way to NFL teams. I don't want to overstate the case, but some of the outcomes appear to be more fortuitous for fantasy investors because . . .
Landing Spot Matters
There appear to be clear paths to workload for the running backs selected on Friday.
Earlier this week, former Ohio State running back Quinshon Judkins told Profootballtalk.com that he and former Buckeyes teammate TreVeyon Henderson didn't have a friendly wager as to which of them would be drafted first. If they had, Judkins would have won.
But not by much.
Judkins went with the 36th overall pick to the Cleveland Browns. Henderson landed two spots later, going to the Patriots.
Both Judkins and Henderson topped 1,000 yards during the Buckeyes' championship run. Judkins led the way with 1,060 yards and 14 touchdowns on 194 carries.
With Nick Chubb still a free agent, the Browns had a need at running back. They've now filled it. While Jerome Ford is still on the roster and the team added another promising rookie, fourth-round pick Dylan Sampson, Judkins profiles as a lead back.
He should dominate the early-down carries for a Browns offense that will look to establish a strong rushing attack as they try to sort out their suddenly convoluted future at quarterback.
Wood's initial projection calls for an RB27 finish with 215 carries and over 900 yards rushing. Expect him to be a factor at the goal line as well.
Even with just two picks separating them, Henderson's initial projections aren't as optimistic despite his high-end profile and the fact that he was widely expected to go ahead of Judkins.
As Schultz wrote on Friday, "Henderson is a freak of nature."
Touted for his electric running style (Henderson averaged 7.1 yards per carry) and elite pass protection skills, Schultz cited an NFL personnel director as saying Henderson is "One of the most exciting players in the draft and a very clean prospect. Home run threat every touch who can hurt you lining up out wide. Very dangerous in space. Multiple Pro Bowl caliber talent."
But again, landing spot matters.
In New England, Henderson will team up with veteran Rhamondre Stevenson, boosting the running back and making it easier for quarterback Drake Maye to make things happen in the passing game.
But Stevenson's presence is a factor in Henderson's initial RB37 projection -- 10 spots lower than Judkins . . .
Mile-High Expectations?
After weeks of anticipation, the Broncos added to their backfield. While many of us expected them to go running back in the first round, with the 20th pick overall, they waited until Round 2 to select University of Central Florida running back RJ Harvey.
The fifth running back off the board, Harvey handled 232 carries for 1,577 yards and 22 TDs in 2024, after posting 1,416 yards and 16 scores the year before.
He joins Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, Tyler Badie, and Blake Watson at the running back position on the Broncos' roster.
Despite waiting to land him, make no mistake: The Broncos wanted Harvey.
They view him as a home run hitter.
"Harvey was kind of our pet cat throughout the process," general manager George Paton told reporters. "His running style, he's dynamic, really good vision, really good instincts, really good contact balance, highly explosive."
As Kluge wrote for the Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide 3.0 (which will be available Wednesday), "Sean Payton offenses have typically featured a thunder-lightning approach. Think of Deuce McAllister and Mark Ingram II as the thunder. Alvin Kamara, Darren Sproles, and Reggie Bush the lightning. Harvey fits the archetype of the latter."
Don't get carried away though; his initial Footballguy projection is RB45 . . .
More Committee Work Coming
Kaleb Johnson, taken by the Steelers in Round 3 (83rd overall), had two solid seasons at Iowa before breaking out during the 2024 season. He ran for 1,537 yards and scored 23 touchdowns in his final year with the Hawkeyes. He'll join Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson in the backfield for Pittsburgh.
According to Wood, Johnson could eventually be the lead back in a committee in Pittsburgh -- but probably not until 2026. Johnson's initial Footballguy projection is RB56 . . .
Landing Spot Matters At Wideout, Too
There are Round 2 wideouts who landed with interesting paths to workload. First and foremost, Jack Bech went to the Raiders with the 58th pick overall.
Bech was considered a late Day 3 pick when the 2024 season started. But after becoming only the fifth TCU player to have a 1,000-yard receiving season, Bech, who showed smooth, precise routes and impeccable hands throughout last season, lands in an offense with only Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers locked into roles ahead of him.
Yes, I realize those roles are robust. But the path to playing time is undoubtedly there for Bech . . .
I also like Ole Miss receiver Tre Harris landing in Los Angeles.
Selected by the Chargers at No. 55, Harris was a two-year starter at Ole Miss. He was in the midst of a potentially record-breaking 2024 season with an FBS-best 987 receiving yards by the second week in October (181 yards more than the next-closest player on the list). But he played in just 16 more snaps the rest of the season because of a groin injury.
Though he missed the final five games with that injury, Harris caught 60 passes for 1,030 yards with seven touchdowns in his final college season.
Now, he'll head west to play with one of the better young quarterbacks in the league -- Justin Herbert -- alongside one of the more exciting young receivers, Ladd McConkey.
The roadblock for Harris? Quentin Johnston.
Still, as Kluge suggests, Harris has the size, athleticism, and ball skills to develop into Herbert's secondary option . . .
Teammates Again
With the second pick Friday night -- the 34th overall, Iowa State receiver Jayden Higgins was taken by the Houston Texans. One round after the Texans selected Higgins, they decided to take the other Cyclone receiver in the Draft. Jaylin Noel went in the third round at 79 overall to join his teammate in Houston.
The Texans have a strong receiving core with Nico Collins and free-agent addition Christian Kirk. But they also lost Stefon Diggs, and they're waiting for Tank Dell to recover from a knee injury likely to cost him the entire 2025 season.
Standing 6-4, Higgins is a vertical, physical threat, something that Houston has relied a lot on with quarterback C.J. Stroud at the helm.
Higgins had 87 catches for 1,183 yards and nine touchdowns at Iowa State last season. Noel was right with Higgins in terms of production in 2024, with a team-high 1,194 yards on 80 catches and eight touchdowns.
While Higgins has the height, Noel brings the quickness and route-running abilities. At the Combine, he ranked third in athleticism among all receivers. The two complemented each other in their different play styles at Iowa State and will aim to do the same together in the NFL.
Again, don't go overboard with immediate expectations. Higgins' initial Footballguys projection calls for a WR76 finish; Noel opens as WR119 . . .
Tight Ends Get Favorable Spots
Again, I don't want to overstate the prospects of Day 2 picks -- especially at tight end. But this year's class was deep, and several interesting talents landed in equally interesting spots.
Jason Taylor II played for the Jets late in his Hall of Fame career. Now, his son, Mason Taylor, will start his NFL run with the AFC East club after the Jets made him the 42nd pick on Friday night. Taylor set LSU's single-season record for tight ends with 55 catches last year and became the only tight end in school history to top 100 catches and 1,000 receiving yards.
Four picks later, the Rams selected Oregon's Terrance Ferguson at No. 46. Ferguson caught 43 passes for 591 yards and three scores in 2024, despite missing time with appendix surgery. Over his career, he logged 134 receptions for 1,537 yards and 16 TDs.
At No. 50, the Seahawks added Miami tight end Elijah Arroyo, who tallied 35 catches for 590 yards and seven touchdowns in 2024.
In Taylor’s case -- with all due respect to veteran Jeremy Ruckert and newcomer Stone Smartt -- it's a pretty open path to playing time in new coordinator Tanner Engstrand's Detroit-style offense. Ferguson joins a Rams group led by veteran Tyler Higbee. Meanwhile, Arroyo could eventually push Noah Fant in Seattle, especially with Fant carrying a $13.4 million cap hit and chatter about a potential cut gaining steam, per Establish The Run's Adam Levitan.
None of the three are viable redraft options (Taylor, projected as TE31, is the highest). Still, this group -- along with new Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. -- should be firmly on your Dynasty radar . . .
Awww Shucks
With their second-round pick, the New Orleans Saints needed a quarterback. And they took a quarterback. But not the quarterback that, as of a few weeks ago, many thought they'd take.
Louisville's Tyler Shough, not Colorado's Shedeur Sanders, became the third quarterback off the board.
More on Sanders below, but Shough (pronounced Shuck) shouldn't be lost in the much higher-profile draft-day storyline.
Pick No. 40 is the highest the Saints have taken a quarterback since they selected Archie Manning in the first round of the 1971 draft. (They selected Dave Wilson in the first round of the 1981 supplemental draft.) Shough, who'll turn 26 in September, spent time at Oregon and Texas Tech before finishing a seven-year run in college at Louisville in 2024.
He suffered several injuries over that time, and Saints head coach Kellen Moore said his experience and resilience were the things that made him their choice.
"We saw it as a positive," Moore said. "He's been through a lot of football; he's been exposed to a lot of different settings. And the quarterback position, these guys aren't reaching their peak for a while. He's going to continue to rise and grow."
As PFT's Josh Alper noted, the Saints are still waiting for further clarity on the shoulder injury that Derek Carr is dealing with, and word on that will help shape the timeline for when they might think about seeing if Shough's extended time in college pays off in the pros.
As things stand now, Wood contends Shough is the most likely quarterback other than Ward to start more than 50 percent of his team's games this year.
Keep Your Day 3 Expectations In Check
Wood reminded us in the company chat Friday night that Saturday selections should be considered late-round lottery tickets -- if you consider them at all.
That's because history is against Day 3 players mattering in their rookie years.
Wideouts Are The Worst
While Wood acknowledges Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown are notable Day 3 draftees, they're only memorable because they're such extreme outliers.
How extreme?
According to Wood, 87 receivers were selected on Day 3 in the last five drafts (2020-2024).
Nacua and St. Brown are the only two rookie wideouts to deliver fantasy-relevant seasons in redraft formats. That means 85 never delivered more than brief moments of production in their rookie campaigns . . .
Running Backs Aren't Much Better
"Lest you think RB is a more fruitful place to mine for diamonds," Wood wrote, "history says otherwise."
Of 68 Day 3 running backs drafted in the last five seasons, only four were redraft relevant: Bucky Irving last year, Dameon Pierce, Elijah Mitchell, and Tyrone Tracy Jr.
And none of those four have yet delivered high-end production on a sustained basis.
Irving, who finished last year as RB14, could put together a productive second season. Now with the Kansas City Chiefs, Mitchell would need circumstances to suddenly create an opportunity to do it. Pierce has likely timed out.
Tracy might have a problem . . .
The Hunt For Bucky II
Six running backs went in the fourth round of the draft, and, as Pro Football Focus noted, most of them landed on teams with very crowded backfields.
Cam Skattebo was the highest-ranked running back remaining heading into Day 3. He was the pre-draft RB6 on the Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide 2.0 Running Back Rankings.
He also landed on the team with his best opportunity for playing time.
The Giants had Tracy and Devin Singletary as their two running backs last season. According to PFF, the Giants earned the fourth-fewest rushing yards from their running backs at 1,307 and the third-fewest first downs at 64. One of the Giants' problems has been their offensive line, where four-fifths of their line had a PFF run-blocking grade of 67.0 or lower last season.
Skattebo is the perfect back for that kind of offensive line, as he was one of the best running backs on non-perfectly blocked runs and one of the best at converting first downs.
There is a chance Skattebo becomes the Giants' lead running back sooner rather than later . . .
What About Shedeur?
Before we wrap up, we need to sort through one of the draft's biggest off-field storylines . . . It's hard to argue that Sanders' precipitous fall was solely about his level of play; he was widely viewed as one of the top prospects at his position heading into the week.
It seems safe to say this wasn't about on-field performance. The reporting leading up to the draft all but confirmed that.
In an article published on the league website Wednesday, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero included a quote about Sanders that could have made some people think twice about the essence of the quarterback. An unidentified NFL coach called Sanders "entitled" and said he was "not that good."
"He's so entitled," the coach said of Sanders. "He takes unnecessary sacks. He never plays on time. He has horrible body language. He blames teammates . . . But the biggest thing is, he's not that good."
Right after the NFL Scouting Combine, Josina Anderson relayed an NFL quarterbacks coach calling Sanders "brash" and "arrogant." That jibed with another quote from Pelissero this week. An anonymous longtime assistant coach told him Sanders conducted "the worst formal interview I've ever been in my life."
Whatever the case, five quarterbacks were drafted before Sanders went to the Browns in Round 5: Ward, Dart, Shough, Alabama's Jalen Milroe (Seahawks, 92nd overall pick), and Sanders' new teammate, Dillon Gabriel, the Oregon QB who the Browns took in Round 3 with the 94th overall pick.
We all know plenty of Day 3 players have emerged over time. Kluge pointed out that some of them slid due to character concerns. Among them, Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and Antonio Brown had wild levels of success.
Others, like running backs Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard, and Isiah Pacheco, have assumed frontline roles for their NFL and your fantasy teams, thanks to fortuitous circumstances and their ability to maximize the opportunity.
We've seen that at quarterback, too.
The GOAT, Tom Brady, was a sixth-round selection, 199th overall, in the 2000 draft. Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant after being selected with the final pick in 2022.
So we'll see where Sanders winds up. What we know now is he faces a serious battle to become fantasy relevant . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of stories. I like to use this spot to encapsulate that broad expanse here. This week, we'll keep it draft-related.
The Good: A Whole New Level Of Pack(ed)
The 2020 census showed that more than 107,000 people live in Green Bay. While initial estimates set expectations for 250,000 attendees for Night 1 of the 2025 draft, the official number was slightly lower.
Population of Green Bay: 107,395
— BetMGM ? (@BetMGM) April 25, 2025
Official attendance at the 2025 NFL Draft: 205,000 pic.twitter.com/wm1IprryL5
Still, the final three-day count was 600,000. Saturday's attendance was 220,000.
That's a remarkable turnout, given the circumstances.
Green Bay is the smallest NFL market by far. The local airport has 12 gates, with typical direct flights to and from Chicago, Minneapolis, Detroit, and Atlanta (New York, L.A., Orlando, and Salt Lake City were added to the schedule for the weekend). Green Bay has roughly 5,000 hotel rooms, half reserved for NFL personnel and vendors. Approximately 1,000 homes were rented in Brown County.
The league did a good job of "packing" them in despite the challenges . . .
The Bad: Hurry Up And Wait . . . A Long Time
As you might expect, logistics were an issue. It didn't take long for things to get out of hand.
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) April 25, 2025
But it went beyond that.
Given the dearth of accommodations, many were forced to drive in from outlying regions. Over 70 percent of attendees came by car. Needless to say, parking was at a premium.
But there were other -- obvious and foreseeable -- issues.
Bathrooms at 3 pm vs bathrooms at 5:30 pm
— Lori Nickel (@LoriNickel) April 24, 2025
Lambeau
NFL draft day 1 pic.twitter.com/WFcO2UMLXg
I mean, it's no surprise, but bad news for those needing to make emergency pit stops . . .
The Ugly: If It Bleeds It Leads
As New York Post staffer Ethan Sears pointed out, there have been first-overall picks who haven't been talked about as much as they deserved. Ward, though, must be the first who's ever been overlooked by a broadcaster in favor of someone who didn't even go in the first round for just about the entire broadcast: Sanders.
The conversation in the lead-up to Roger Goodell announcing the first pick centered on the Colorado quarterback, with ESPN showing a highlight package of Sanders and Mel Kiper Jr. reviewing his attributes.
Then, Booger McFarland told viewers he would take Sanders over Ward.
"You would have thought it was Sanders, not Ward, who was about to be picked," Sears wrote.
Sears wasn't the only one to notice.
Cam Ward has been ignored for weeks, and now that he's about to be drafted, Mel Kiper is talking about Shedeur Sanders???
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) April 25, 2025
"For an entity that's been endlessly criticized over the 'First Take'-ification of its coverage," Sears added, "this looked like yet another example of prioritizing a debate over the news in front of everybody's eyes."
It was ugly . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. First-time readers will be pleased to learn you're only scratching the surface of what's available at Footballguys. We're hard at work year-round to help our subscribers gain an edge on the competition.
Our 2025 Player Projections and Preseason Draft Rankings are now live, along with a full range of interesting strategy and news articles.
Remember: It's never too early to start, so head back next week for another edition of the Fantasy Notebook.
Bob Harris was the first-ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can catch Harris' "On The Hotseat" every Tuesday on the Footballguys Audible channel and listen to him during the season on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.
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