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Follow The Bouncing (Best) Ball

Best-ball season has officially kicked off -- and if you're anything like me, you're already in the draft fray.

The unknowns are daunting. 

Even as free agency plays out, the moves made cause almost immediate shifts in ADP (Average Draft Position) as investors react and look to leverage change in nearly real-time. Meanwhile, we're drafting rookies without knowing their NFL destinations, and injuries will change anticipated roles and workloads across the board.

Yet here I am, running through the best-ball mean streets on Underdog and Best-Ball 10s with reckless abandon.

Why?

Just like I lift weights to build muscle in real life, I draft to develop my those mental muscles. 

It also helps me start setting baselines, testing the values for my Footballguys Rankings, and comparing how the collective sees player prices versus our initial Footballguys 2025 Draft Projections. By tracking how values shift and players' trajectories evolve, I can sharpen projections ahead of the high-stakes drafts this summer.

So whether you're a year-round degenerate drafter like me, a serious player who likes to follow the minutiae as it plays out, or a casual fan interested in keeping a finger on the pulse at various points in time, these drafts and the information gleaned from them are helpful.

Over the next month, I'll share some of this information with you by position.

Let's dive in . . .

Top Shelf to Bargain Basement: There's a QB for You

Gone are the days when waiting until the late rounds to draft a quarterback was a badge of honor. The position has evolved -- today's mobile, athletic QBs have changed the game. Taking one early? Totally justifiable. But value still exists later -- you just have to know where to look.

My approach? Load up on other positions until the board dries up. When nothing jumps out, that's when I pivot to quarterback.

The good news is there's almost always a passer with upside waiting. Let's start at the top and work our way down . . .

Premium Purchases: The Jackson-Allen Tier

We all love luxury purchases. We love them even more when they deliver on the price paid.

Consistent Excellence

Meanwhile, Josh Allen carried Buffalo in 2024 -- so much so that he edged Jackson to win NFL MVP.

The Bills rewarded him with a six-year, $330 million extension, including a record $250 million guaranteed -- surpassing Deshaun Watson's $230 million in Cleveland.

Despite trading Stefon Diggs to Houston and losing Gabe Davis, Allen delivered. He posted a career-low 8.3 yards per attempt (per Next Gen Stats) but led a more efficient attack.

Buffalo scored 30-plus points in 12 games -- tied for the second-most in NFL history (behind the 2013 Broncos).

Allen totaled 41 touchdowns: 28 passing, 12 rushing, and even one receiving. He became the only player in NFL history with 25-plus passing TDs, 10-plus rushing TDs, and a receiving score in a season.

He threw just six interceptions and took only 14 sacks -- both career-bests. The Bills became the first Super Bowl-era team with under 15 sacks allowed and fewer than 15 giveaways in a season.

Allen (five seasons) joins Rodgers (six) as the only QBs with 40-plus total TDs in five or more seasons . . .

The Total Package

Lamar Jackson finished 2024 with 41 touchdown passes and just four interceptions.

That's a historic stat line.

Never before had a player topped 40 touchdowns while throwing less than five interceptions. Prior to Jackson this year, the most touchdown passes ever thrown in a season with fewer than five interceptions was 37, set by Aaron Rodgers in 2021. And the fewest interceptions ever thrown in a season with at least 40 touchdown passes was five -- also set by Rodgers in 2020.

Jackson, already the all-time leading QB rusher, broke Michael Vick's career rushing record (6,110 yards) on Christmas Day. He did it in just seven seasons. The next-closest active QB is Russell Wilson at 5,364 yards -- but he's eight years older and unlikely to catch Jackson.

And Jackson's arm? Underrated. He's no longer just a dual threat; he's a total-package fantasy weapon . . .

What'd We Get Out of the Deal?

Allen was the first QB off the board in 2024 fantasy drafts (28th overall). Jackson was QB4 (42nd overall), going a full round later.

Jackson, with his QB1 finish, returned better value. The question now is . . .

Will It Hold Up In 2025?

Both QBs entered the league in 2018. Their rookie seasons weren't spectacular -- Allen finished as QB21, Jackson as QB29.

But since then?

Allen's finishes:

• QB6 in 2019
• QB1 in 2020, 2021, and 2023
• QB2 in 2022
• QB3 in 2024

That includes top-10 overall finishes (all positions included) in the last five years.

Jackson's finishes:

• QB1 in 2019 and 2024
• QB10 in 2020
• QB16 in 2021
• QB14 in 2022
• QB4 in 2023

Allen's consistency explains the slight ADP edge and keeps him locked in as fantasy's No. 1 QB . . .

Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze?

In early Underdog drafts, Allen, going with the 31st pick overall, and Jackson, going at 34, are being taken exactly where they land in the Footballguys 2025 Draft Projections: QB1 and QB2.

Both go in the third round alongside names like Trey McBride, DJ Moore, Marvin Harrison Jr., Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, and Mike Evans.

Comparing the upside, floor, and weekly ceiling, Allen and Jackson are as safe as it gets in Round 3. Just make sure you’re building around them with positional value in mind . . .

Next-Level Options: The Daniels-Hurts-Burrow Tier

If Allen and Jackson are the elite luxury buys, these next three QBs could deliver nearly as much upside -- without the third-round price tag. 

In Command(er)

Jayden Daniels set record after record as a rookie.

He became just the sixth rookie QB to lead his team to a conference championship game -- and the first to do it with a defense ranked outside the top 10 (Washington was 18th). He rushed for 891 yards (a rookie QB record), threw for 3,568 yards, and posted 25 passing TDs -- with 15 in his final five full games -- plus six rushing scores.

He also broke the record for most fourth-quarter/overtime TD passes by a rookie (12) and became the first QB in NFL history to complete 85 percent-plus of his passes in back-to-back games.

But Daniels isn't just thriving on his own.

GM Adam Peters added Deebo Samuel Sr., re-signed Zach Ertz, and traded for Laremy Tunsil, giving Daniels a proven weapon, a reliable TE, and one of the league's best blindside protectors. That's a serious upgrade to his supporting cast.

He already offers elite rushing equity -- but with better protection and weapons, Daniels could push into the Premium Tier alongside Allen and Jackson.

The only reason he's not there yet? I want to see him do it again . . .

Needs More Volume

Forget the hand-wringing over Jalen Hurts' arm. He's a fine passer -- if only we saw it more often.

Hurts' 2024 was elite across the board:

• 1st in rushing TDs
• 1st in broken tackles
• 1st in completion percentage over expectation
• Top-5 in YPA and passer rating (min. 50 attempts)

Oh, and he was Super Bowl LIX MVP.

Hurts finished as QB6 overall -- but QB4 in points per game (21.7) -- powered by his role as the goal-line engine in Philly's offense. He's rushed for 13-plus TDs in three straight seasons.

The concern? Volume.

Hurts threw 104 fewer passes in 2024 than in 2023 -- and 99 fewer than in 2022, despite playing the same number of games (13).

In 2024, Hurts attempted 30-plus passes in just five games (compared to eight in 2022). The Eagles went 10-1 in the 11 games where he attempted fewer than 30. 

The reason? Saquon Barkley.

Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards -- just 101 short of Eric Dickerson's all-time NFL record. With that ground game rolling, Philly didn't need Hurts to air it out.

So yes, Hurts is efficient -- but in games where the Eagles are rolling, his volume can vanish . . .

Burrowed In

Coming off a 2023 wrist ligament rupture -- an injury no other NFL QB had returned from -- Joe Burrow didn't just bounce back; he posted the best season of his career.

He led the league in passing yards (4,918) and TDs (43), earning his second NFL Comeback Player of the Year award (the first was in 2021 after a torn ACL).

The Bengals have locked in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins long-term, giving Burrow arguably the best receiving duo in the league. That's great news for all formats -- especially dynasty.

Chase led all fantasy WRs last year (403 points), with three 40-plus point games -- including a 55.4-point explosion -- and a 23.7 PPG average, four full points better than the next-best WR.

Higgins? Tied with Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown at 18.7 PPG.

Burrow finished 2024 as fantasy's QB2 through Week 18 (22.5 PPG) while leading the NFL in passing yards per game (272.9) and passing TDs (43).

He's currently being drafted as QB5, which is precisely where he lands in the Footballguys 2025 Projections . . .

Worth It or Not?

Early best-ball drafters are taking Daniels in the fourth round, with the 39th pick overall. I'm not against it, and it aligns with his initial 2025 Footballguys Projection, which also has him as QB3, scoring an average of 22.6 points per game.

Hurts is going next as QB4 with the 45th pick overall. He's followed by Burrow, who is going with the 51st pick. 

Positional players going in the same range include James Cook, Xavier Worthy, Davante Adams, DeVonta Smith, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, DK Metcalf, rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan, Rome Odunze, Rashee Rice, Joe Mixon, Chuba Hubbard, George Kittle, Jordan Addison, Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle, and Courtland Sutton. It's a mix of volatile and solid plays.

Still, Daniels, Hurts, and Burrow, with their impressive Footballguys per-game scoring projections (22.6, 21.6, and 20.6, respectively), are all appealing options.

Of the three?

Burrow in Round 5 offers the cleanest path to elite production at a discount.  . . .

High-Upside Value Options: The Nix-Mayfield Tier

Not quite ready to spend up for the big names? Let’s look at two high-upside values going several rounds later.

A Fast Riser

Denver's Bo Nix became the first rookie QB in NFL history with multiple games of 300-plus passing yards and four touchdowns. He also set the rookie record for most games with 200-plus yards, two scores, and no picks.

After a slow start, Nix heated up. He finished as fantasy's QB8, averaging 18.6 points per game with nine QB1 finishes. He cracked the top 10 five times, the top 5 three times, and posted a massive 33.5-point line in Week 18.

From Week 10 on, he threw 21 TD passes -- tied with Burrow for third-most in the NFL.

And it wasn't just the arm. Nix added value on the ground, finishing third on the team in rushing yards (430) and tying for the lead in rushing TDs (four), as Sean Payton leaned more into his mobility.

It’s that late-season surge that’ll stick in drafters’ minds . . .

Easily Overlooked?

Talk about a comeback. Over the last two seasons in Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield has become the player the Browns hoped for when they took him No. 1 overall in the 2018 draft -- yes, ahead of Allen and Jackson.

His 106.8 passer rating was a Bucs franchise record. Tampa Bay was the only team to rank top five in both passing yards per game (250.4) and rushing yards per game (149.2). They also finished top five in total offense (399.6 YPG), scoring (29.5 PPG), third-down conversions (NFL-best 50.9 percent), and red-zone efficiency (66.7 percent).

Mayfield set career highs across the board: 4,500 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and a 71.4 percent completion rate -- all top-three marks league-wide.

He finished fourth in fantasy points per game (21.6), trailing only Jackson, Allen, and Burrow.

Yes, he's adjusting to his third offensive coordinator in as many years -- but with Mike Evans and a healthy Chris Godwin (who was WR2 over the first seven weeks), Mayfield's outlook remains strong . . .

The Price Is Right

Nix (88th overall) and Mayfield (89th) are both going in the eighth round -- right after players like Aaron Jones, rookie WR Matthew Golden, Jalen McMillan, Tony Pollard, and Jaylen Warren.

I'll take the upside of either QB over any of those names . . .

This And That: Later-Round Best-Ball Favorites

I'm open to drafting every player -- at the right price. And when it comes to quarterbacks, it's not hard to find appeal all the way into free-square range . . .

Youth Movement

We looked at Chicago's Caleb Williams in last week's Fantasy Notebook, but in case you missed it, we saw the upside during his rookie year.

Yes, he struggled under Shane Waldron early, but once Waldron was fired after Week 10, the shift was immediate. With Thomas Brown calling plays from Weeks 11 to 13, Williams was QB4, averaging 22.4 points per game. In Weeks 12 and 13 alone, he was QB3, putting up 25.5 per game.

I'm hoping my league-mates focus more on his QB15 finish than what he could become under new head coach Ben Johnson -- formerly Detroit's offensive coordinator -- who's now tasked with unlocking this offense.

Williams has a QB10 ADP right now, just ahead of his QB12 projection here at Footballguys. He's going in the ninth round -- after players like Jonnu Smith, Isiah Pacheco, and Darnell Mooney.

That’s the kind of ADP inefficiency I’m more than happy to exploit . . .

Change Is Coming, But Not Necessarily For The Worse . . .

Detroit's Jared Goff is going just one pick after Caleb Williams -- 98th overall. So why is last year's QB7 barely clinging to the QB1 tier?

Simple: Johnson's departure to Chicago.

With Goff under center and Johnson calling plays, the Lions ranked top-five in both points and total yards three years running. Now Johnson's gone, and John Morton steps in as OC. He was a senior offensive assistant during Johnson's first year in Detroit, then spent the last two seasons on Sean Payton's Denver staff.

His track record as a play-caller? Limited. USC in 2009-10, and the Jets in 2017 -- where a Josh McCown-Bryce Petty led squad ranked 28th in yards and 24th in points.

That said, Morton knows this system and has worked with Goff. He says the offense will "continue the vision" already in place and remain "predicated on the quarterback."

It helps that Goff is surrounded by one of the league's best supporting casts: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery. The offensive line? Ranked No. 1 at season's end by Footballguys' Matt Bitonti.

Coordinator change aside, there's still a ton to like at Goff's ADP . . .

Get It While You Can

In their first significant move, new Jets GM Darren Mougey and head coach Aaron Glenn moved on from Aaron Rodgers and handed the reins of their offense to Justin Fields.

Fields has flashed fantasy value before, but as Footballguy Hutchinson Brown noted, he's never averaged more than 197 passing yards per game. 

His value? It's all in the legs.

Brown went on to explain that from 2022 to 2023, he ran for 40-plus yards in 20 of 28 starts and topped 100 yards multiple times. Even with a limited passing profile, he still finished as a top-10 QB in 15 of those 28 games.

Now he reunites with his former Ohio State teammate, Garrett Wilson. In 2020's COVID-shortened season, Wilson caught 43 balls for 723 yards and six scores in just eight games with Fields. Across two seasons in Columbus, they connected for 11 TDs. As ESPN's Rich Cimini put it: Good, not great -- but the chemistry is real.

And let's not forget what Fields did with DJ Moore in 2023. Moore hauled in 76 catches for 1,153 yards and nine TDs in 13 games with Fields, finishing as WR6. Tyson Bagent helped a little, but Fields drove that breakout.

In New York, first-time offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand will need to tailor the system to Fields' strengths, likely leaning into more RPOs, zone-reads, and quick throws than we saw in Detroit.

For now, Fields is going off the board as QB20 in Round 12 on Underdog. That won't last. His Footballguys projection? QB11.

Until the market catches up, I'll be buying . . .

Mission Accomplished?

The Panthers surprised many of us in 2024 with their progress under first-year head coach Dave Canales.

Remember, Canales played a role in Mayfield's resurgence in Tampa. Carolina brought him in to do the same for Bryce Young after a rocky rookie season -- and evidence suggests it's working.

It wasn't a smooth ride. Canales made a bold move by benching Young early, knowing it could damage a young quarterback's confidence. But it had the opposite effect. Canales told Profootballtalk.com that Young handled it like a pro while Andy Dalton started, and the youngster came back significantly improved.

The numbers back that up. Post-Week 11 bye, Young averaged over 21 fantasy points per game across his final seven starts. He was QB6 over that stretch.

I'm not drafting Young as my QB1. But as a late QB2 or even QB3 at the end of the 12th round?

Yes, please . . .

My Favorite Bargain 

While Matthew Stafford won't be viewed as a front-line fantasy quarterback, he returns to the Rams with a raise in his pocket and an offensive line that remains intact from 2024. He also has two 1,000-yard All-Pro caliber receivers flanking him, a 1,000-yard running back, and a Super Bowl champion tight end in Tyler Higbee. 

While he might never be considered a fantasy QB1, Stafford has the supporting cast, scheme, and upside to handle a starting role for us on any given Sunday. 

Appearing on last week's On The Hotseat, Footballguy Dave Kluge noted age and lack of mobility will have people backing off Stafford. Kluge added the resulting discount has plenty of appeal.

"When you have an offense with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, it's not crazy to think that he can have one of those -- if the variance breaks the right way and he has 45 touchdowns and 5,000 yards, he can sneak in as a QB1 based on pass volume alone," Kluge said. "Stafford is one of those guys I'm going to be drafting late a lot this year."

And that's the thing. Stafford is currently QB36. 

The 14th-round pick you'll have to burn to land him means passing up on players like Jaylen Wright, rookie QB Cam Ward, Cedric Tillman, Jerome Ford, and Ray Davis. 

Stafford is a free-square play with massive upside any given weekend . . .

The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of stories. I like to use this spot to encapsulate that broad expanse here.

The Good: Not As Bad As We Thought?

Last week in the Ugly section, we discussed how San Francisco's offseason has been more subtraction than addition. The 49ers traded away Samuel, taking a $31 million dead-money hit to dump his $16.6 million salary. They let key defenders -- Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward -- walk and cut Javon Hargrave and Leonard Floyd. They even released fullback staple Kyle Juszczyk -- though they re-signed him over the weekend.

All this comes after a disappointing 6-11 finish in 2024.

Now they're staring at nearly $80 million in dead cap for 2025, and they still need to lock down Brock Purdy with a new deal -- which is going to cost real money.

Still, this team still has Nick Bosa, Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Fred Warner, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk. The core is intact. Kyle Shanahan is still calling plays. When healthy, this offense is a high-functioning machine.

That doesn't evaporate overnight.

Yes, the roster's aging. Yes, Purdy's $900K cap hit will rise considerably. Yes, the Rams appear to  be moving ahead of them in the NFC West.

But fading the Niners entirely feels like we're taking it a step too far -- especially from a fantasy perspective.

Kittle's role may evolve, Aiyuk could see more volume upon return from his ACL tear, and a healthy McCaffrey remains elite until proven otherwise. Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall will add to the mix. Don't let the cap chaos fool you -- talent still lives here.

And if the offense needs to lean even harder on its playmakers, there's upside to be found, even if the real-life outlook is murky . . .

The Bad: Cautious Approach

The New England Patriots have desperately needed a top wide receiver for several seasons. Still, they are being quite selective in pursuing one, according to Tom E. Curran of NBCSports Boston.

DK Metcalf was linked to the Patriots numerous times before he was traded to the Steelers earlier this month. There was also talk of New England trying to sign Adams before he landed with the Rams. In a column published Monday, Curran explained why the Patriots had reservations about having either player on their roster.

Curran wrote that the team has been "exceedingly wary of the negative impact a demanding veteran wideout could have on Maye." 

That apparently is why New England did not make much of an effort to acquire Metcalf or Adams. Of course, the Patriots have also had issues convincing top wide receivers to play for them. They were reportedly willing to offer Chris Godwin much more than the former Pro Bowl wideout accepted to remain with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

If the Patriots are genuinely trying to avoid adding a "demanding veteran wideout" to the mix, they may not have many options. 

That may explain why the team had Stefon Diggs in for a visit this week. 

The New England Patriots: “We’re concerned about what might happen if we bring in a diva receiver who demands the ball too much.”

Also the New England Patriots: “We’re bringing in Stefon Diggs for a visit.”

— Ryan (@19_loading) March 20, 2025

Whatever the case, receivers tend to be a demanding bunch. And until the Patriots find the right guy, Drake Maye will not be able to play to his full potential until this problem gets solved.

The Ugly: Cousins In Limbo

A year ago, Atlanta made the biggest splash in free agency by signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal with $90 million guaranteed.

They used the No. 8 pick on quarterback Michael Penix Jr. a month later.

As ESPN's Dan Graziano reminded readers this week, the move was widely criticized for signaling a major shift in direction, making it nearly impossible to maximize both Cousins' massive contract and Penix's rookie deal.

Cousins then struggled as the starter and was benched late in 2024 for Penix, who the team says will be their starter going forward.

Yet Cousins remains on the roster, and the Falcons insist they'll keep him as Penix's backup.

In case anyone doubted them, Cousins being on the roster this past Sunday triggered another $10 million -- via a 2026 roster bonus -- to become fully guaranteed. Cutting him now would mean a $75 million dead-money cap hit. Trading him would still leave $37.5 million in dead money -- and he holds a no-trade clause.

Graziano notes a trade is still possible, but with QB openings filling up fast and Cousins having the final say, the window is closing.

"The Falcons would be better off just ripping off the Band-Aid and moving on," Graziano added. "But it doesn't look like they're going to do that."

The ugly part?

Teams like the Giants, Steelers, or Browns might have to settle for lesser options than Cousins, who might unlock more value from the fantasy assets we actually care about . . .

The Final Word

That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. First-time readers will be pleased to learn you're only scratching the surface of what's available at Footballguys. We're hard at work year-round to help our subscribers gain an edge on the competition. 

In addition to a full range of interesting strategy and news articles, our real-time Player Movement Tracker and Fantasy Outlooks landing page are available now. We also released Version 2 of our Footballguys 2025 Rookie Draft Guide. Download it for free now. Our 2025 Player Projections and Preseason Draft Rankings are up and running, too.

Remember: It's never too early to start, so head back next week for another edition of the Fantasy Notebook.

Bob Harris was the first ever Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year and is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. You can catch Harris' "On The Hotseat" every Tuesday on the Footballguys Audible channel and listen to him during the season on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show on Sirius channel 87.

Follow @footballdiehard