Just when we were getting used to the post-free-agency NFL landscape, here comes the draft to bring more disruption. We know a lot is going to change, think we know some of what's going to change, and have no idea about the changes that few, if anyone, see coming. You have a few days to get offers out just as some dynasty players are coming out of hibernation ahead of upcoming rookie drafts. Trying to take advantage by “skating to where the puck is going to be” with some foreseeable moves coming is a fun and valuable exercise. Here are seven ideas to get your mental juices flowing.
Buy Isaiah Likely (TE-BAL) and DeVonta Smith (WR-PHI)
That Dallas Goedert is available via trade is one of the worst-kept secrets in the league going into the draft. Baltimore GM Eric DeCosta got everyone’s attention when he wouldn’t commit to anything about TE Mark Andrews’s future with the team. The obvious beneficiaries of both of these would-be trades are Isaiah Likely, who could conceivably lead the Ravens in targets, catches, and receiving touchdowns if Andrews is traded to, oh, say, the Los Angeles Chargers. Smith came alive last year when Goedert was out (which could be part of why the Eagles see moving him as a viable cost-cutting move despite being in a Super Bowl window) with seven touchdowns in the eight games Goedert missed. While both of these trades are very much on our radar, the market is still probably underestimating the value boost to Likely, who could become a top five fantasy tight end just as he is hitting his prime at age 25, and Smith, who could get to low fantasy WR1 status in his fifth season. Both of these players are in stable, rich fantasy environments. Even if they don’t get the benefit of a narrower target tree this year via trade, it’s clear that both are central in the future plans, and Andrews and Goedert are getting to the end of their tenures.
Buy D'Andre Swift (RB-CHI)
You wouldn’t know that Swift is coming off a season where he was able to maintain RB2 value despite going from the high-rent Eagles running game to the low-rent 2024 Bears offense. The problem is that he doesn’t have a great history with Ben Johnson, who preferred other backs to him in Detroit. The Bears are one of the favorites to take Boise State phenom Ashton Jeanty, and if they don’t take Jeanty at 10 (or move up for him), Johnson can still hand-pick a strong contributor to share with Swift on the second day. The market is already valuing Swift as if he will have to compete with Jeanty for touches and basically be marginalized in Chicago. There are other possibilities: Swift sharing touches with a lesser rookie back after Jeanty goes to Las Vegas or a surprise team ahead of Chicago, or Swift being traded to some place like Dallas or Pittsburgh with a decent to good opportunity after the Bears select Jeanty. Swift could also exceed expectations in a committee with a rookie because new backs can be injury prone or otherwise show they aren’t ready for a heavy workload or not win the trust of a coach that they are ready for a lot in year one. Make a lowball offer for Swift before the draft.
Sell Travis Etienne Jr. (RB-JAX)
Etienne has been a multi-year "this is going to be his breakout year" holding pattern. His production nosedived last year as Tank Bigsby became a formidable running mate in year two, and Etienne’s impact in the passing game also shrank considerably. The previous regime picked up his fifth-year option at a cost of just over $6 million, fully guaranteed, but it’s unclear whether the new regime would have made that choice. Liam Coen’s Bucs drafted Bucky Irving in the fourth round last year. Coen said that Irving runs the ball how he wants backs to run in his offense after the draft last year, so it should have been very predictable that Irving would take over the backfield, as he did in short order with tremendous fantasy results. Coen could have his eye on a back in this very deep class, perhaps even Ashton Jeanty as a best player available pick at 5. He might prefer Bigsby to Etienne. Etienne’s future is unclear, but the arrow is pointing down. Perhaps you can unload him for a second-round pick before we see which way the winds are blowing in Jacksonville.