RELATED: See 4 Free-Agent Movers With Sleeper Appeal here.

This is a time of great optimism--both for NFL fans and for fantasy managers.

With free agency nearing a month old and the 2025 NFL draft just over two weeks away, NFL teams are re-making themselves ahead of the season to come. For some, that means just a tweak here and there. For others that means a complete overhaul. But whether they are just polishing things up or attempting a more thorough rebuild, the goal for all 32 teams remains the same--get better ahead of Green Bay and the draft.

Of course, scores of players changing teams doesn't just have a seismic impact on the NFL itself--the fantasy football fortunes of players on the move can also be altered in a major way. If fantasy value is a combination of talent and situation, then throwing the latter into a blender is going to make a difference. 

For some players, that difference is a positive one. Maybe it's finally a chance for a wide receiver or running back to be "the guy." Perhaps it's a matter of improved weapons for a quarterback. But whatever the reason, changing teams is a good thing.

But while a free-agent move can most assuredly be a positive for a player's checking account (and that of his agent), some guys aren't as fortunate from a fantasy perspective. The players around them decrease in quality. Their position on the depth chart becomes more tenuous.

The why doesn't really matter. All that does is that their fantasy value took a sizable hit.

And the bust alarms have started to sound.

QB Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders

Smith was one of the first big personnel moves of 2025--after three seasons as the starter for the Seattle Seahawks, Smith was flipped to the Raiders for a third-round pick and then signed to a two-year, $75 million contract extension. Smith will turn 35 in October, but while speaking to reporters, Raiders head coach Pete Carroll said he has no doubts that Smith can be a long-term answer under center in Sin City.

"The guy sat for almost six years and didn't get the wear and tear," Carroll said. "So that's why he moves so well. When it came time to get to it, it was automatic that we would take a shot at [Smith]. Fortunately, Seattle was willing to listen, and John Spytek [made] his first big time deal. We pulled it off exactly in the manner that we wanted to. [Smith] gives us a great kick start to what's going on." 

Smith may well turn out to be a good get for a Raiders team that had a gaping void at quarterback after rolling out Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell last year. And Smith produced top-12 fantasy numbers in two of three seasons in Seattle, including a QB5 fantasy finish in 2022. But outside second-year tight end Brock Bowers, the pass-catchers in Vegas aren't giving any opposing defensive coordinators nightmares, and the Raiders have produced all of one top-12 fantasy season from a quarterback in the past two decades.

RB Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers

There wasn't much to cheer about in Dallas in 2024, but Dowdle's fifth professional season was a bright spot--after playing sparingly his first four years in Dallas, Dowdle eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground a year ago, averaging a rock-solid 4.6 yards per carry. Now in Carolina, Dowdle told reporters he looks forward to running behind the Panthers' improved offensive line.

"That's something you look at, at the offensive line, evaluate it like, 'OK, yeah, those guys are doing that, you know, they're pretty good,'" Dowdle said. "So when I knew I was coming here, I started doing my research and stuff on the O-line, seeing all the positive on it and how they've built it up these past couple years. So definitely was intriguing to see. With those guys up front, I've watched a little bit of film already, and those guys, they pretty much run mid-zone, similar to what—we ran outside-zone in Dallas."

The problem is that, barring injury, Dowdle isn't going to sniff the 235 carries he had with Dallas in 2024. Chuba Hubbard is coming off a 1,000-yard season of his own with the Panthers, and while Hubbard was handed a four-year, $33.2 million extension last year in Carolina, Dowdle joined the Panthers on a one-year deal worth less than $3 million.

Like Chumbawamba, it appears that Dowdle is a one-hit wonder.