We get this question a lot.
Actually, we have gotten this question a lot since Dak Prescott tore his hamstring. Specifically, how can CeeDee Lamb be ranked high when he is catching passes from the likes of Cooper Rush (or even Trey Lance)?
Here's an answer as of the Wednesday before Week 12 games begin.
CeeDee Lamb is tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown as my WR1 this week.
The Matchup
The Cowboys are 10-point underdogs to the Commanders, with an over-under of 45. This is bad for team touchdowns but great for game script. This season, the Cowboys' average run-pass ratio (expressed as run proportion) is 0.34 (meaning they run 34% of the time and pass 66%). They're coming off a game of 0.24. I am projecting 0.35 for this week. Both the Cowboys and Commanders are playing at an above-average pace this season, and I project the Cowboys to run 66 offensive plays: 21.8 rush attempts, 40.5 pass attempts, and 3.7 sacks.
Projecting Targets
It's rare for me to project anyone to get double-digit targets. Normally, when someone gets double-digit targets, it's because they exceeded my expectations. But this week, I project CeeDee Lamb to receive 11.2 targets. That's because:
- He's CeeDee Lamb, arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL.
- The Cowboys lack another big-time receiver to compete for targets. There's no Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, or DeVonta Smith on the team to siphon away volume from the top dog.
Over his last five games, Lamb has seen 14, 17, 12, 10, and 12 targets. He leads the league in targets during this span, even though it includes his bye week. Projecting 11.2 targets for him this week doesn't seem outlandish.
Fantasy points are generally a product of volume and talent, and CeeDee Lamb is elite in both categories.
Downside
The main knock against him this week is that Dak Prescott is out, meaning he'll be catching passes from Cooper Rush and/or Trey Lance. Is a backup quarterback bad for a team's top receiver? On one hand, passing accuracy will suffer—a target from Rush isn't worth as much as a target from Prescott. My projections account for this: I would have projected Prescott to complete 64.6% of his passes this week, but I project Rush and Lance at about 61%. On the other hand, lesser quarterbacks tend to lock onto their first read rather than spreading the ball around. This tendency at least partially—and sometimes fully—offsets the compromised accuracy.
Target Share With a Backup QB
DeAndre Hopkins saw his target share increase with quarterbacks like Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, Brandon Weeden, and Tom Savage. Justin Jefferson still excelled when Joshua Dobbs filled in for Kirk Cousins. Davante Adams didn't miss a beat when Brett Hundley replaced Aaron Rodgers.
This isn't a universal rule. Lamb himself presents a counterexample: his fantasy production dipped when Cooper Rush filled in for Prescott in 2022. (See also: Ja'Marr Chase with Jake Browning last year.) But overall, I believe the trend argues against downgrading elite wide receivers solely due to subpar quarterbacks.
And we're talking about CeeDee Lamb, the consensus preseason fantasy WR1. He is elite.
