The Footballguys Bowl regular season has officially wrapped up. While most fantasy players are now laser-focused on the first round of the playoffs, this is also the perfect time to reflect on what worked—and what didn't—in 2024 fantasy drafts. The playoffs can often skew our perceptions with a handful of high-stakes games, but the 14-week regular season provides a more substantial sample to draw meaningful lessons for 2025 drafts. This article will dig into the successes and failures of 2024 Footballguys Bowl drafts, highlighting strategies, draft spots, and picks that stood out. Although the analysis is based on a specific scoring system, the insights should prove valuable to fantasy players in any format.
It's important to note that blindly replicating what worked in 2024 is not a foolproof approach for 2025. Every season is unique, with its own twists and turns. However, gaining a deep understanding of which draft strategies succeeded (and failed) this year offers invaluable context as you prepare for the next. Winning your 2025 fantasy league starts now—by learning from the lessons of 2024.
Overall, 28.5% of the 1,908 teams in the Footballguys Bowl made the playoffs. Let's look at what those winning teams did to have success in 2024 and what lessons we might glean for next season.
First Round Lessons
We should start at the beginning. While the old saying is that you can't win your draft in the first round, but you can lose it, the advance rates of drafters who selected Ja'Marr Chase or Saquon Barkley in the first round say otherwise.
Looking only at the players who were selected in the first round of at least 15 Footballguys Bowl Drafts, here are the advance rates for each team based upon their first-round pick:
Multiple things stand out when looking at the first-round advance rates:
- Ja'Marr Chase and Saquon Barkley were home-run picks in the first round. When in doubt, draft players with elite physical skills.
- The 2024 regular season for CeeDee Lamb felt like a major disappointment. However, this is where analyzing numbers can provide a fresh perspective. Teams that drafted Lamb in the first round still made the playoffs almost 31% of the time, slightly higher than the average advance rate of 28.5%.
- Drafting a rookie wide receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr., in the first round felt like a reach at the time. We do not want to let our judgment be clouded by hindsight bias. However, this pick stands out as an example of trying not to lose your draft in the first round. Moving forward, Harrison's 2024 ADP should serve as a reminder for future seasons to not take gigantic risks on unproven players in the first round.
- It was a massive uphill battle to make the playoffs if you drafted Christian McCaffrey in the first round.
The McCaffrey Debacle: Lessons from 1.01
In 134 of the 159 Footballguys Bowl drafts (84.3%), Christian McCaffrey was the first overall selection. However, only 7 of those 134 McCaffrey teams (5.2%) made the playoffs.
On the flip side, 40% (10 out of 25) of drafters who took a contrarian approach by selecting someone other than McCaffrey at 1.01 made the playoffs. In other words, passing on McCaffrey increased your chances of reaching the playoffs by a staggering 766%.
What can we learn from this for 2025? The case for McCaffrey as the first overall pick was strong, and it's important not to fall into the trap of hindsight bias— we have to judge the pick based on what we knew at the time. If you selected him at 1.01, the failure was mostly a matter of bad luck. That said, this outcome may suggest we should place more emphasis on a player's health heading into the regular season. It's wise to be especially cautious with players who miss significant stretches of training camp, even if their coach is painting an overly optimistic picture of their recovery in interviews.
The Best Picks in 2024
Of all players who were selected in at least half of all Footballguys Bowl Drafts, the ten below were the best overall picks as measured by advance rates of the teams which drafted them:
The biggest takeaway from the 2024 fantasy regular season is that drafting veteran running backs paid off in a major way. Four of the best seven picks in Footballguys Bowl drafts turned out to be veteran running backs aged 27 or older: Derrick Henry (30), Saquon Barkley (27), David Montgomery (27), and Alvin Kamara (29) were home-run selections. While not every aging back delivered (see McCaffrey above), the winning strategy this year was to invest premium picks in older backs with secure, high-volume roles. This surprising outcome reversed a recent trend in which veteran running backs often underperformed relative to their draft cost.
Several factors contributed to this development. A lackluster rookie running back class and the unique skill sets of players like Henry, Barkley, and Kamara combined to make age-related concerns seem overblown. Those who bet on the talent and opportunity of these veterans reaped the rewards.
The big question for 2025 is whether the fantasy community will overreact to these outlier results. Jason Wood noted in a staff chat, "I believe that's one of the perennial lessons: fade the pervasive winning strategy from the prior year. I'm sure 2025 will be RB-heavy, and WRs will be treated like a fungible commodity, so it's likely time to refocus on drafting elite receivers."
Context will be crucial as we evaluate the 2024 season. In hindsight, it's clear the pendulum had swung too far toward the "Zero-RB" drafting philosophy. Will 2025 see a more balanced approach, or will the pendulum swing too far the other way, with drafters scrambling to secure running backs early? Striking the right equilibrium will be key to winning next season.
The Worst Picks in 2024
Of all players who were selected in at least half of all Footballguys Bowl Drafts, the ten below were the best overall picks as measured by advance rates of the teams that drafted them:
Injuries are unavoidable: Losing an early pick like Christian McCaffrey, Isiah Pacheco, or Chris Olave can derail a fantasy season. While there's no major takeaway here, it's a reminder that luck plays a role in fantasy football, and adaptability is key.
Non-injury disappointments: Players who underperform without getting injured, like C.J. Stroud, can be even more damaging. Stroud failed to take the predicted second-year leap, highlighting the risk of spending a premium pick on a quarterback who doesn't deliver. For 2025, it's likely best to avoid drafting a quarterback early unless they offer significant rushing upside.
Opportunity cost of upside picks: Injuries sidelined rookies like Tank Dell and Dalton Kincaid, but the real issue is the opportunity cost of drafting unproven players over reliable veterans. Passing on bellcow running backs like Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, or David Montgomery in favor of flashy prospects often backfires. Be cautious about overvaluing rookies or second-year players with theoretical upside, such as Kincaid, Dell, or Harrison.
Sneaky Sharp: Correlation vs. Causation
One of the most fascinating aspects of this analysis is teasing apart correlation from causation. Take Ja'Marr Chase as an example. Did his drafters advance at a higher-than-average rate because they're generally better at drafting or because Chase delivered a monster season? It's impossible to say for certain.
The distinction becomes much clearer when we look at players where causation is not a factor and correlation stands on its own. Nobody made the playoffs because they drafted Sione Vaki—he probably never made a single appearance in a starting lineup this season. Yet, nearly half of the teams that drafted Vaki ended up making the playoffs. The correlation is undeniable.
In this section, I'll explore why some of these picks—many of which didn't deliver in terms of performance—may still have been sharp selections. Below are the advance rates for several (mostly) late-round picks drafted by at least 10 teams, including some with surprisingly high success rates.
Bengals Defense:
Teams that drafted the Bengals Defense were roughly 40% more likely to make the playoffs than those who didn't, despite the defense being terrible and likely harmful to those who started it. The reason? The Bengals were set to face the Patriots (projected as the worst offense) in Week 1. Drafters who planned ahead for matchups were likely sharper in general, and their overall draft strategy showed better results. This highlights the value of streaming defenses based on matchups.Michael Penix Jr., Sione Vaki, and Dyami Brown:
These players never touched starting lineups this season, so their high advance rates were not due to direct impact. While some of this could be random variance due to small sample sizes, it's more likely these were sharp picks that simply didn't pan out.- Sione Vaki: As Detroit's third running back, Vaki offered upside if Jahmyr Gibbs or David Montgomery had missed time. Though it didn't happen and Vaki was an easy cut, this pick reflects the sharp strategy of targeting high-upside backups in elite offenses in later rounds.
- Dyami Brown: Following the Commanders' trade of Jahan Dotson to the Eagles, Brown moved up the depth chart. While he didn't make an impact, those who drafted him were likely locked into late-breaking news and camp reports. This awareness often correlates with sharper drafting overall.
Rashee Rice:
Drafters who selected Rashee Rice early still advanced to the playoffs at close to the average rate, even though Rice suffered an early-season injury. The likely explanation is that Rice was a sharp pick, and his drafters were skilled enough to compensate for his absence with other strong selections. For example, Dave Kluge managed a top-2 finish in the Footballguys Bowl Staff Division despite losing Rice early, underscoring the likely correlation between those who identified Rice as a great value and drafters who were skilled enough to overcome the loss of an early pick.Jalen McMillan:
In the Footballguys Subscriber's Contest, teams that drafted Jalen McMillan had significantly higher advance rates, even though McMillan barely contributed due to a hamstring injury. This is another case of correlation rather than causation: McMillan was a sharp pick at his ADP based on preseason expectations. His high advance rate likely reflects the drafting skill of those who targeted him.
Final Thoughts
The 2024 Footballguys Bowl provided invaluable insights into draft strategies, player archetypes to target, and the ever-important role of luck in fantasy football. The data collected from the 2024 drafts will be a treasure trove of information to exploit as we look to dominate drafts next year and will be explored in greater depth during the offseason. As we look ahead to 2025 drafts, it's clear that the key to success will be learning from this year's trends while avoiding the trap of overreacting to outliers.
Thank you to everyone who participated in the 2024 Footballguys Bowl regular season, especially those who gave it their all but didn't make the playoffs. Good luck to those still alive in the postseason! For those who didn't play this year, we'd love to see you join the fun in 2025.