Week 1 Minefields: Footballguys Roundtable Week 2

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Week 1 is a minefield for fantasy GMs. Navigating it well can help you get a head start on your competition.

Welcome to Week 2 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• The 49ers Backfield
• Managing September
• The Subscriber Contest
• Week 1 Minefields (see below)

Let's roll.

Week 1 Minefields

Matt Waldman: Summertime buzz can create some preseason minefields. The reason is that the news cycle can sometimes run out of control. One story can feed into another and then into another. This can sometimes bury the true value of a player, who is sometimes too high and sometimes too low.

• Share 1-2 players you believe are rated too high based on Week 1. 
• Share 1-2 players you believe are rated too low based on  Week 1. 

Go...

Week 1 False Positives (Players Rated Too High)

Joseph Haggan: Jajuan Jennings leading the 49ers in receiving yards is something you should not chase. The 49ers were completely in control against the Jets and leaned on the run. Jennings drew four fewer targets than Deebo Samuel and the same amount as Brandon Aiyuk.

Change the game script, and the 49ers will look to be more aggressive with Aiyuk and Samuel. Add the fact that McCaffrey was missing from the passing game, and Jennings drops down the ladder more.

Jeff Haseley: Allen Lazard immediately comes to mind. I understand his rapport with Aaron Rodgers, but I would be shocked if he consistently provides adequate production that would warrant a weekly start. Lazard's two-score game should be the prime example of a player who goes off Week 1 but consistently fails to deliver the same level of play throughout the season. 

Another player who comes to mind is Xavier Worthy. I get that he has the speed to burn and that Andy Reid will try to exploit that. I see the rookie Worthy in the same way I saw Jerick McKinnon. He's great for a few games but not too consistent. It's possible Worthy turns into a player who sees more volume, but without volume, he's a flashy player who might have a big game. 

One more to add is Jayden Reed. I see the Packers receiving corps, and I think that's too many mouths to feed. Reed may be the best of the three wide receivers (or four if you include Dontayvion Wicks), but I still believe Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs will also have their day in the sun.

Consistency concerns me with Reed, plus the uncertainty of Jordan Love's MCL sprain looms large. Green Bay has a conservative medical staff. They will make sure he is 100% before he returns to the field. Malik Willis is a big downgrade for the passing game. I'd advise benching Packers receivers until Love returns.

Waldman: Fair point with Willis in the lineup, but Reed's versatility as a component of the run game, RPOs, and downfield routes is a worthwhile counterargument for why he's the most likely to retain fantasy value while Malik Willis is in the fold. I agree fantasy GMs should consider other options ahead of Reed in light of Willis' tenure as a temporary starter--at least until we see how Willis performs in Week 2.  

Ryan Weisse: You're going to go to your waiver wire and see Alec Pierce near the top. Do not fall for this trap. He is a false positive. Yes, he caught 3 balls for 125 yards and a touchdown, but 2 of his catches were over 50 yards. That is not close to sustainable every week.

Also, he was only targeted three times in a high-scoring back-and-forth game. Big plays are fun, but with Michael Pittman Jr, Adonai Mitchell, and soon Josh Downs, there is too much target competition to get any consistency from Pierce. 

Waldman: So, let me get this straight, he caught 3 of 3 targets from Anthony Richardson, who told the broadcast media before the game that the public is down on Pierce after last year, "But that's because I was hurt. I'm about to change that." 

You raise a fair point about the receiver room as a fear about his consistency. The same is true of game scripts potentially failing to match what we saw in week 1. 

However, if the team's quarterback tells the media that Pierce's demise is greatly exaggerated and then delivers a 66-yard bomb from the catch point for a TD and a second deep pass that Pierce wins in a contested battle? I'm paying attention--at least in leagues where I'm simply rotating reserves with upside on and off the end of my roster. 

Weisse: That sounds great, Matt, but until the volume is there, I'm not adding Pierce unless it's a large-roster format where his presence is a luxury. 

Corey Spala: I agree with Ryan. Alec Pierce is a false positive. I do not want to take away a great performance, but we need to remember Josh Downs did not play. Additionally, Adonai Mitchell led all wide receivers in Separation Score in Week 1.

Anthony Richardson missed Mitchell on two passes, one of which had a defensive penalty nullified the potential 70-yard touchdown. A boom game for Pierce should not make him a priority add. The Indianapolis offense will return to complete health and find chemistry as a whole with their quarterback.  

Waldman: Metrics like Separation Score can be helpful, but only if they validate the context of the game. In this case, one of the passes that Richardson missed to Mitchell was not a miss. It was Mitchell stumbling during the route and the ball landing ahead of him at the distance that Mitchell's stumble generated.

That's not inaccuracy. It's a piece of contextual information that should be added to a metric like Separation Score because vertical routes are thrown with anticipation, and if the receiver wrecks that timing, it's not actionable separation generated. 

Spala: Maybe, but he still got separation. Still, it makes sense that Richardson shouldn't be completely faulted there. What we know is that long-term Pierce is unlikely the second or clear-cut third receiver on the depth chart. 

Jason Wood:  I agree with my colleagues that Allen Lazard and Alec Pierce vastly outperformed where they'll finish on a per-game basis for the rest of the year. At the quarterback position, two players stand out: Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr.

Mayfield finished as the No. 2 quarterback this week, and I'd be shocked if he even comes close to top-12 value over the season. While his performance this week might have eased fears about new offensive coordinator Liam Coen being a complete disaster, I still don't believe this offensive system or the team's structure can consistently support that level of output.

Carr finished as the No. 6 quarterback despite throwing for just 200 yards, largely due to three touchdown passes. Carr is better than his preseason rankings suggested, but the Saints' offense lacks the playmakers and dynamism to sustain this kind of efficiency going forward. 

Waldman: Okay, wait a minute. I'm in a world where I'm about to fight for Mayfield!? Life is funny. 

Mayfield has two excellent wide receivers who are still at the top of their games. The Buccaneers revamped the ground game to include more zone blocking. This creates more identifiable creases than Duo blocks, and we saw that these changes complement their three backs on the roster.

Duo is a tough scheme to run because the creases are more often small/tight and less nuanced runners don't approach it with maturity. A more effective ground game makes life easier on Mayfield and generates more big-play potential. Plus, Mayfield is climbing the pocket like a veteran pro, which is something he didn't do nearly as well in Cleveland--and the Browns had a good offensive line. 

Wow. I just defended Mayfield. What is this world coming to, Wood? 

Wood: I'm equally flummoxed. While I see merits to your argument about personnel and the NFC South is still wide open for the taking, I'm skeptical that Mayfield has progressed beyond streaky performances. I'm open to changing my mind, but I want more proof than a four-touchdown performance in the opener. 

Waldman: And Wood, have you seen Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed play? Shaheed runs by people with ease. That Alvin Kamara guy still looks good, too. 

Wood: Talk to me when they do it against a team David Tepper doesn't own.