We've reached the last episode of the 2024 fantasy season. In a fantasy series like Game of Thrones, the biggest battles and toughest character deaths occurred in the penultimate episodes. The season finales reset the board and build anticipation for the next season. [Spoilers if you haven't seen GoT] Ned's execution, the Battle of the Blackwater, the Red Wedding, Mance's attack on Castle Black, the battle for Winterfell, and the fall of Kings Landing all occurred in penultimate episodes. [End Spoilers]
Week 17 is the fantasy football season's penultimate episode. We won hard-fought victories and buried our honored dead (or both) last week, but some of us are soldiering on to the very last scene of the season. There are unresolved plot threads, some of which can be resolved only by one-episode cameos. Welcome to the season finale's waiver wire. Khalil Herbert, Michael Carter, and Ameer Abdullah are options that can help you end the season on a winning note.
Khalil Herbert, Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals must win to keep their playoff hopes alive. A Saturday kickoff guarantees they will play their starters to the end. One of those starters could be running back Chase Brown, even though he suffered a sprained ankle in last week's game. Our Adam Hutchison noted running backs "very rarely" avoid missing time with his kind of injury, but Bengals officials insist Brown has a chance to play. Today's practice report will provide a hint toward his potential availability but nothing definitive.
Khalil Herbert should do the heavy lifting at running back work if Brown cannot play. Herbert had four carries for 23 yards in overtime of a must-win game last week after Brown left the battlefield. Assuming Brown is out this week, Herbert will have little competition for touches from Trayveon Williams, who mostly plays on special teams, and whoever may be elevated from the practice squad. That's not to say Herbert won't face tough sledding.
First, Pittsburgh's run defense has been tougher than most this season. Just 10 teams allow fewer average rushing yards per game to running backs, and just three opponents have gained more than 100 rushing yards in a game. Second, the Bengals may focus on the passing game. In their Week 13 game against the Steelers, Joe Burrow attempted 38 passes while Cincinnati's running backs had just 13 carries.
Khalil Herbert is worth the risk, at least as a waiver-wire pickup. At this point, there are likely players on your roster who you would not start under any circumstances. Drop one of them and add Herbert before your opponent does.
Michael Carter, Arizona Cardinals
Injuries to Trey Benson and Emari Demercado opened the door for Michael Carter to serve as the primary backup to James Conner for the past two weeks. Conner left both games due to an ankle injury, and Carter took over the backfield in his absence. Last week, Carter rushed 13 times for 70 yards and caught both his targets for 11 yards while playing 72% of snaps against the Rams. DeeJay Dallas saw minimal work in occasional relief of Carter and does not figure to see much more this week.
Arizona faces San Francisco, which has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. The Niners have given up at least 100 rushing yards to five running backs in the last six games. Neither team is playing for anything but pride, but the players themselves are seeking to prove their worth to remain rostered for 2025.
Benson has a chance to play against the 49ers this week. If he plays, Carter's appeal as a fantasy starter drops significantly. As with Chase Brown, you'll need to monitor practice reports this week to see if Benson progresses toward playing. As with Khalil Herbert, claiming Carter keeps him out of your opponent's lineup even if he stays on your bench.
Ameer Abdullah, Las Vegas Raiders
Last week, I suggested avoiding the Raiders backfield entirely because it was unclear who would get more opportunities. Entering last week, Ameer Abdullah had out-snapped Alexander Mattison in three of the four games they both played, but Mattison saw more snaps than Abdullah in Week 16. However, I correctly identified Abdullah as the preferred option because he has been more efficient with his opportunities.
Indeed, Abdullah was the more efficient back in Week 17 and was given more opportunities. He averaged 6.4 yards per touch to Mattison's 3.5 yards per touch while out-touching Mattison 23 to 11 and out-snapping him 48 to 24. Abdullah has scored at least 15 fantasy points in each of the last three games in PPR formats, but he needed a touchdown in two games to get there.
This week, Abdullah faces a stingy Chargers defense that has given up the fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs this season (four). In Week 1, the Chargers gave up just 63 rushing yards to the Raiders but surrendered a touchdown reception to Mattison. Abdullah did not see an offensive snap in that game. The Chargers have clinched a playoff berth but are fighting for the fifth seed and a date with struggling Houston, but they need the Steelers to lose on Saturday. Thus, the Chargers will know if they are playing for anything other than pride before Sunday's kickoff. Abdullah's performance stands to improve as the Chargers' motivation declines.
Khalil Herbert, Michael Carter, Ameer Abdullah, and Your Other Options
Season finales may not have all the big action set pieces, but they can still deliver some drama. Championships will still be won this week, and a late addition to your running back room could make the difference between winning and waiting for 2025. Consult our Upgrades and Downgrades tool to see how Khalil Herbert and the others fare using rankings customized for your league.
Here's to starting the new year with a championship!