It's that time of year, Dear Reader. The fantasy playoffs have reached semi-final heaven, and the only thing between your team l-i-v-i-n and dyin' is masterful work on the waiver wire.
Ok, maybe that's a little dramatic. We have reached semi-final heaven, though, and while the wrong waiver move probably won't kill you, the right one could lead you straight to fantasy glory. Let's look at three players who could rescue you in a pinch: Jalen McMillan, Jalen Coker, and Quentin Johnston.
WR Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I love Jalen McMillan, so let me just get that bias out of the way right now. I was high on him during the rookie scouting process, and Tampa Bay seemed to agree as they made him a top-100 draft pick. He fell short in two categories during rookie evaluation season -- yards per team pass attempt and his Dominator Rating. I don't care, though, because I believe at least one of those stats is completely made up by the Big Dynasty Draft Complex. Either way, his final score in my rookie evaluations put him in a category with players like Cedric Tillman, Chris Olave, George Pickens, and Christian Watson, each of whom has had NFL success. Many rookie drafters were sleeping on him in the spring, but they are starting to wake up now.
The Tampa Bay wide receiver room has had a tumultuous year. Chris Godwin began the season playing as well as he had in his career before a season-ending knee injury, and Mike Evans has missed time with a hamstring. Evans is back now, and the room seems to be stabilizing.
Similarly, Jalen McMillan's start was not exactly reminiscent of rookie Randy Moss. His production didn't match his time on the field. Through the first seven weeks of the season - weeks Godwin, Evans, and McMillan were on the field together - McMillan only played fewer than 60% of the snaps in one game. Through the first 13 weeks, he only hit double-digit fantasy points one time, and that was back in Week One. But Jalen McMillan has been the clear WR2 in Tampa Bay since Godwin's injury, and in the past two weeks, the production has started to match the opportunity as he's averaged right around 20 fantasy points per game in those two. It's probably no coincidence that all three of his best fantasy weeks have been weeks in which he's scored touchdowns, but that doesn't necessarily make him a touchdown-dependent scorer. Jalen McMillan is going to be on the field, and he's going to get opportunities. Tampa Bay plays at Dallas in Week 16 and home against Carolina in Week 17. Neither team presents a particularly imposing defense.
If McMillan is making the late-rookie-year leap I hoped to see from him, he could be a reliable fantasy piece as you chase those championships in the next two weeks.
WR Jalen Coker, Carolina Panthers
Speaking of the Carolina Panthers, they have a rookie wide receiver named Jalen who could be poised to make some noise over the next couple of weeks. Jalen Coker was a mid-to-late-round rookie draft pick in most dynasty drafts last spring. He didn't have the same kind of pedigree as McMillan. I had an incomplete grade on him coming out, largely because I couldn't find all of the data on him I usually use to evaluate rookies. Still, like McMillan, Coker had the combination of size and speed I look for in rookie wide receivers. Further, Coker was coming into a nice situation in Carolina where not only was the team likely to be playing from behind a lot, but Coker was likely to have a chance to move up a depth chart that was something less than impressive.
Fast-forward to Week 16. What do we have? Diontae Johnson is gone. Jonathan Mingo is gone. Adam Thielen is so old he was there when they invented the light bulb. Bryce Young was benched. Andy Dalton was in a car accident. Bryce Young was named the starter again. Coker didn't see a snap for the first three weeks of the season, but when given a chance in weeks 4-10, in which he played at least 45 percent of the snaps, he began to produce. He wasn't winning you weeks, but he showed he could produce. Then he hurt his quad and missed a month.
But we have a saying in my family, and modified a bit, it goes something like this: The wind blew, the crap flew, and through it all, there stood Coker.
He healed up in time to play against Dallas in Week 15, and he had his best game of the season, catching four of six targets for 110 yards and a touchdown. Now, don't be fooled by the shiny object here. The touchdown and 83 of the yards came on a play where the Dallas defense probably blew the coverage. Still, Coker was on the field, targeted, and good enough to take advantage of the blown defense. More importantly, and the shiny object I do want you to be fooled by, he drew six targets in his first game back from injury and he looked competent doing it.
Coker should get a shot to produce over the next couple of weeks as Carolina takes on Arizona and Tampa Bay teams middling against the pass. He could be the kind of waiver claim that helps a team in a pinch survive and advance.
WR Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
Quentin Johnston is the ultimate test of whether you are the type of fantasy player who views the glass as half-empty or half-full or just picks the glass up and smashes it on the floor.
Turns out I am that last one. I traded Johnston away at my first opportunity after his rookie year because I wanted him to be a top 24 fantasy WR, and it seemed like he was going to top out at maybe a top 50 or 60 type of guy instead.
I think I was right about the player, but I think I was wrong to trade him so quickly. I think he'll end up being a solid WR3 for fantasy purposes, and I think a guy like that can step up and win you a week every so often to help you advance through your playoffs. His scores in my rookie evaluations matched him up with players like Rashee Rice, Josh Downs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tank Dell, Drake London, Brian Thomas Jr., Skyy Moore, and Devontez Walker. Now, some of those comps are better than others, but if that's his range, then he is a more useful fantasy asset than I gave him credit for after his rookie season.
I don't think Johnston should be on waivers in any league, but if he is, I'd put him right behind McMillan in my waiver priority. He's talented, for sure. He's held back a little by some drops and, frankly, by the style of offense the Chargers want to run.
Still, a quick look at the snap counts of the Charger wide receiver room shows the following:
- Ladd McConkey: 572 snaps
- Joshua Palmer: 547 snaps
- Quentin Johnston: 503 snaps
All three receivers are seeing plenty of snaps, and even though Johnston is third in snap count, he checks in second among that group in targets with 63 to McConkey's 88. I think Johnston is exactly what I thought he was: a solid player who can give you a nice fantasy score each week but can also disappear in a week where McConkey, Palmer, or a tight end are featured in the Charger passing attack. I believe McConkey is the wide receiver I want in Charger Land, but if you can stomach the weekly floor that Johnston represents, you could score big if you use him in a week when he booms.
Johnston finishes the season with games against Denver and New England in your fantasy playoffs. Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and Jakobi Meyers have all gone over 100 yards against Denver since Week 12. Similarly, New England has given up over 100 yards since Week 11 to Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Jaylen Waddle. There could be some WR fantasy points to be had in the Chargers passing game in the next couple of weeks. The question is whether Johnston will be the one producing. There are worse lottery tickets out there.
One last note on Johnston: The Chargers play Thursday night this week, and Johnston was an estimated Did Not Participate (DNP) on Monday. If he is someone you might have to use this week, be sure to keep an eye on his injury status and to have a pivot ready.
Conclusion - Jalen McMillan, Jalen Coker, Quentin Johnston
If you're still in the hunt right now, you are likely in a two-week sprint to the title. As injuries mount and fantasy rosters thin out, the difference between glory and disappointment could be the right waiver wire addition. You could do worse than taking a shot on any of these three players. Check out our Upgrades/Downgrades Tool for more great insight on Jalen McMillian, your Week 16 waiver wire claims, and more!