Underdog Pick Em: Week 17

How It Works

Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.

Payouts

Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:

• Two picks: 3x your entry
• Three picks: 6x your entry
• Four picks: 10x your entry
• Five picks: 20x your entry

This article highlights a few of my favorite player props for Week 17, featuring two standard Pick'em overs and a fun 18X longshot pick with a mix of highers and lowers combined with a surprise touchdown scorer. 

Impressive Rookie Overs (3X)

The Chargers are desperate for a win to secure a playoff spot. With lead back Gus Edwards out and J.K. Dobbins questionable after a long injury absence, the onus will fall on Justin Herbert and the passing attack, led by star rookie Ladd McConkey. Expect Los Angeles to lean on the passing game early, aiming to build a lead before shifting to a more conservative approach.

On the other side, few rookies have been more impressive than Drake Maye, who has consistently shown the ability to win with both his arm and legs.

Ladd McConkey Higher than 12.5 First-Quarter Receiving Yards

• Ladd McConkey has recorded at least 27 first-quarter receiving yards in five of his last six games:
  • Buccaneers: 3 catches for 27 yards
  • Falcons: 2 catches for 50 yards
  • Ravens: 3 catches for 53 yards
  • Bengals: 2 catches for 36 yards
  • Browns: 3 catches for 31 yards
• The Chargers often come out with a pass-heavy approach and a well-designed opening script to jumpstart McConkey and the passing attack early.
• Unlike most single-quarter receiving props, which tend to favor late-game action, McConkey benefits from the Chargers' early-game aggressiveness. It's typically only later, when protecting a lead, that Jim Harbaugh shifts to a run-heavy game plan.

Drake Maye Higher than 25.5 Rushing Yards

• Since becoming the starter, Drake Maye has rushed for more than 25.5 yards in 70% of games (7 of 10).
• Maye averages an impressive 8.1 yards per carry and, from an eye-test perspective, looks like Josh Allen when he takes off. His legs are a major weapon.
• The Chargers have struggled to contain rushing quarterbacks in the second half of the season, even against less athletic players:
  • Jameis Winston: 27 yards
  • Will Levis: 41 yards
  • Joe Burrow: 28 yards
  • Baker Mayfield: 25 yards
  • Bo Nix: 25 yards

Rare Week 17 Shootout (2.7X)

The combination of bad weather, injuries, and varying levels of motivation should result in several low-scoring games in Week 17. We got a glimpse of that on Thursday night, with the Seahawks edging out a 6-3 win over the Bears. However, the Broncos-Bengals matchup stands out as one of the best chances for a bona fide shootout this week.

Joe Burrow has been the best quarterback in the NFL over the past month and a half, and he gets his star left tackle, Orlando Brown Jr., back this week. Motivation will not be an issue for either team. The Broncos need a win to secure a playoff spot, while the Bengals are fighting to stay in the race—a loss would eliminate them from postseason contention.

On the other side, Bo Nix has been playing excellent football and will face a banged-up Bengals defense that has struggled against nearly every decent quarterback it has faced this season. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and this matchup has all the makings of another shootout.

Joe Burrow Higher than 278.5 Passing Yards

• Over his last six games, Joe Burrow is averaging 330.8 passing yards and 3.2 passing touchdowns per game, playing at an elite level. The Bengals offense is as healthy as it has been all season heading into Week 17.
• While the Broncos defense gets a boost with the return of second-year cornerback Riley Moss, it has shown significant cracks in recent weeks. Jameis Winston threw for 497 yards against them in Week 13, and last week, Justin Herbert threw for 284 yards on just 31 attempts to lead a comeback win.
• The Broncos man-heavy defensive scheme puts a lot of pressure on their cornerbacks when facing elite wide receivers. Few duos are better equipped to exploit this than the Bengals' Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who will likely see 1-on-1 opportunities, increasing the odds of big plays.

Bo Nix Higher than 229.5 Passing Yards

• Bo Nix has surpassed 260 passing yards in four of his last five games. The lone exception was a low-volume game against the Colts, whose passing offense was non-functional and led to an unusual game script. That won't be the case against Joe Burrow and the Bengals, where Nix and the offense will need to score heavily to win.
• The Bengals defense has faced backup quarterbacks in its last three games, but against the last three starting quarterbacks—Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson—Cincinnati allowed an average of 333.7 passing yards.
• Even the Steelers passing offense, which looked incompetent on Christmas Day, lit up this Bengals defense for 414 passing yards.