Underdog Pick Em: Week 14

How It Works

Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.

Payouts

Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:

• Two picks: 3x your entry
• Three picks: 6x your entry
• Four picks: 10x your entry
• Five picks: 20x your entry

This article highlights a few of my favorite player props for Week 14. We are going with a trio of Pick 'Em overs this week, all three of which are correlated plays. We are on a four-week winning streak. Last week, he hit a big 6X with Ja'Marr Chase, Pat Freiermuth, and Calvin Austin III. We nearly had another 6.4X hit in the Buccaneers-Panthers game, as we were in position for a win in regulation. However, Rachaad White hit his rushing over in Overtime, which sunk our three-way prop, including overs on Bucky Irving and Adam Thielen, alongside the under on White. Let's try to stay hot for the fifth consecutive week.

Buckeye Throwback (3X)

Last weekend was a tough one for Buckeye fans like me. In times like these, it helps to think back to happier moments—like the 2022 Rose Bowl, when Ohio State edged out Utah 48-45. That game was unforgettable, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. combining for 21 catches, 418 receiving yards, and six touchdowns.

At the time, Harrison was an unproven true freshman, while Smith-Njigba was a true sophomore in the middle of a breakout season—one he took to an entirely new level late in the year. Fast forward to today, and the two find themselves in similar positions, only now at the NFL level.

In this matchup between former Buckeye greats, I’m backing Harrison to get off to a fast start and Smith-Njigba to keep making plays down the field in his newly expanded role.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Longest Reception Higher than 21.5 Yards

• Smith-Njigba’s median long reception for the season is 20.5 yards, but over his last seven games, it has increased to 23.0 yards, reflecting a shift in how he’s being used.

• In his last four games, he has recorded nine receptions of at least 22 yards (2.25 per game), showcasing his success on long plays. This shift is not just in results but also in strategy, as he has seen eight targets of 21+ air yards (2.0 per game) in the last four games, compared to just four such targets (0.5 per game) in the first eight weeks.

• After nearly 20 career games, the Seahawks seem to have realized what Ohio State fans have known for years—Smith-Njigba is a legitimate deep threat and an exceptional ball tracker on downfield plays. Smith-Njigba’s overs have been a regular feature here over the past month, reflecting a sincere belief he is in the midst of a breakout that will see him emerge as one of the league’s most dangerous young wide receivers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks 8th in Targets this season (97).

He ranks 80th in drops (2).

(@PFF) pic.twitter.com/pznrtjc6Q4

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 5, 2024

Marvin Harrison Jr.. Higher than 23.5 First Half Receiving Yards

• This season, 61.1% of Harrison’s receiving yards have come in the first half, averaging 30.8 yards per game. However, his median first-half yardage is slightly below his Week 14 prop at 21.5 yards.

• Arizona’s coaching staff has focused on increasing Harrison’s involvement. Last week, coach Jonathan Gannon emphasized his importance, stating, "The passing game will go through him." Harrison responded with 12 targets, multiple deep shots of 20+ air yards, and 178 total air yards.

• With his high air-yard volume and deep-shot opportunities, Harrison only needs one big gain in the first half to hit the over on this prop, making it a strong bet.

• There is a narrative angle here, too. The Cardinals need to get Harrison going if they are going to make a playoff push and have any chance of advancing once they make it into the playoffs. This offense (and team) would transform if Harrison had a strong finish to his rookie season, and all parties were strongly incentivized to make that happen.

All-22 of Marvin Harrison Jr..'s 12 targets against the Vikings in Week 13.

??27.9% target share
??178 air yards
?? 92.2% Route Rate
?? 5 Catches 60 Yards 1 TD pic.twitter.com/7TWPN3DyhA

— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) December 6, 2024